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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #4892
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    fits wrote: »
    Goodness you really know how to reassure someone awaiting a test result!

    Yeah, time and place AWTF ffs.


  • #4893
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,398 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Anybody ever look at these graphs on worldometer

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

    I don’t know how to add the graph here but if you scroll down to “ daily infections and testing”, in the absolute best case scenario it has Ireland still having circa 1300 cases a day by April 1st?!!! And that’s working off a max daily of 2750 which we prob already surpassed ! It’s also working off the assumption that numbers will rise until middle of Feb , that doesn’t sound right surely?

    Does this sound right? I’d of thought or hoped that by mid to late Jan we would hopefully maxed out daily cases?!

    Edit: just noticed that was last updated on 23 Dec and hasn’t factored in our huge surge :(

    I'm not sure about those figures, but it does take a long time for cases to go down.
    But a very short time for cases to rise, as we have seen.


  • #4894
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    I'm not sure about those figures, but it does take a long time for cases to go down.
    But a very short time for cases to rise, as we have seen.

    I was thinking about this. If we top out at 4K a day (for example) how long will it take to get down to even below 1k? What will be an acceptable level for things to open up?

    Honestly, I don’t know but might it be April before we get numbers down to even levels in November?


  • #4895
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I was thinking about this. If we top out at 4K a day (for example) how long will it take to get down to even below 1k? What will be an acceptable level for things to open up?

    Honestly, I don’t know but might it be April before we get numbers down to even levels in November?

    Possibly:( the rollout of the vaccine may influence hospitalisations and deaths though


  • #4896
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,621 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    ExMachina1000 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1345006866829463552?s=20

    Matron of a hospital in London talking about how the new strain of virus is affected children and younger people much more. Wards full of sick children not seen previously in the year

    What’s the context?

    A ward of children in hospital and contracting Covid?

    A ward of children contracting the disease in the community and subsequently requiring hospital care?

    There is a magnitude of difference


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  • #4897
    Humberto Salazar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 624 ✭✭✭Humberto Salazar


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I was thinking about this. If we top out at 4K a day (for example) how long will it take to get down to even below 1k? What will be an acceptable level for things to open up?

    Honestly, I don’t know but might it be April before we get numbers down to even levels in November?

    I'd say a good chance we will level out by end of month at under 500 a day. Maybe if we can get to 250 by end of Feb level restrictions will ease. Let's be optimistic, it will be late summer before we can think of normality returning at all.


  • #4898
    thebronze14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 705 ✭✭✭thebronze14


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Anybody ever look at these graphs on worldometer

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections

    I don’t know how to add the graph here but if you scroll down to “ daily infections and testing”, in the absolute best case scenario it has Ireland still having circa 1300 cases a day by April 1st?!!! And that’s working off a max daily of 2750 which we prob already surpassed ! It’s also working off the assumption that numbers will rise until middle of Feb , that doesn’t sound right surely?

    Does this sound right? I’d of thought or hoped that by mid to late Jan we would hopefully maxed out daily cases?!

    Edit: just noticed that was last updated on 23 Dec and hasn’t factored in our huge surge :(

    One small positive is that we are down in the 40s for deaths per million. When I last looked a few months ago we were 12th


  • #4899
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Drumpot wrote: »
    I was thinking about this. If we top out at 4K a day (for example) how long will it take to get down to even below 1k? What will be an acceptable level for things to open up?

    Honestly, I don’t know but might it be April before we get numbers down to even levels in November?

    We went from 1200-1400 to 200-400 fairly quickly in November so there is a lot of Hope and that was with schools open.


  • #4900
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    niallo27 wrote: »
    We went from 1200-1400 to 200-400 fairly quickly in November so there is a lot of Hope and that was with schools open.

    That was over about five weeks though wasn't it?


  • #4901
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The best way to get us back in a reasonable position is a hard lockdown for 4 weeks, school closed, construction shut, only healthcare and emergency services etc in offices


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  • #4902
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Stheno wrote: »
    That was over about five weeks though wasn't it?

    The first 3 weeks saw a fairly drastic reduction. I think we will see a big drop, everyone is a bit spooked.


  • #4903
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    The best way to get us back in a reasonable position is a hard lockdown for 4 weeks, school closed, construction shut, only healthcare and emergency services etc in offices

    Agreed. Keeping schools open means not only the kids mixing but you also have the parents mingling. During the first lockdown, it was like a ghost town near me. Afraid it is the only way to get the numbers under control and prevent chaos in our hospitals


  • #4904
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Stheno wrote: »
    That was over about five weeks though wasn't it?

    Its all about where our top is?

    The 5 weeks started after a little while of level 3 which meant the 5 weeks started from the high point.

    I suspect that it will be approx 9 or 10 January before we see the highest of our current wave.


  • #4905
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    niallo27 wrote: »
    The first 3 weeks saw a fairly drastic reduction. I think we will see a big drop, everyone is a bit spooked.

    Yes but if it plateaus again like it did at about 300 a day there is no way NPHET will support any significant relaxing of restrictions

    Schools and non essential retail may open thats about it

    Unless we are seeing some vaccine impact

    NPHET have already asked for six weeks of Level five a few days ago


  • #4906
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,398 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    blackcard wrote: »
    Agreed. Keeping schools open means not only the kids mixing but you also have the parents mingling. During the first lockdown, it was like a ghost town near me. Afraid it is the only way to get the numbers under control and prevent chaos in our hospitals

    Yup, I remember the deserted streets of March/April. Have not seen anything like that since.

    And don't be fooled about fears of "jobs".
    It's the desire for profits that have driven the opening up of the hospitality and retail sectors.


  • #4907
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    niallo27 wrote: »
    The first 3 weeks saw a fairly drastic reduction. I think we will see a big drop, everyone is a bit spooked.
    We know when we drop the Level 5 hammer it will level off. People are spooked however I agree.

    The Christmas & New Year party infections will still be feeding through however. Let's say infected on the 25th, 5 or so days for symptoms to appear (on average), another day wondering whether it really is Covid, ring the GP on day 6 and get tested, results back day 7. That brings us up to Saturday/Sunday before that peak begins to appear (I'd keep an eye on GP stats) and another few days for it to appear in the official stats.


  • #4908
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    niallo27 wrote: »
    We went from 1200-1400 to 200-400 fairly quickly in November so there is a lot of Hope and that was with schools open.

    Yeh and I think schools will be closed for at least January so hopefully this speeds up the reduction. But based on October :

    Oct 20th 1263 per day
    Dec 1st 254 per day

    80% drop in circa 42 days. With a hypothetical 4K per day (let’s say by 14th January) that wouid have us down to 800 within 40 days and down to 160 after 80 days. You are looking at April where we would get below 100.

    Hopefully by then vaccines have started to help alleviate pressure on hospitals and as you said school closures make this a much more drastic scenario that will not play out.


  • #4909
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    Regarding hospitalisations in last 14 days up to 30/12/20, 451 people were admitted and slightly over 50% of those are under 65.

    20 are in age group 0-18 years. This equates to 4.43% of all admissions. A month ago admissions in this age group amounted to 3.5%. (Edit - this data is too limited to draw any conclusions yet about behaviour of Covid variants.)

    19-24 years - 29 cases admitted - 6.43% of all admissions
    25-34 - 43 - 9.53%
    35-44 - 34 - 7.54%
    45-54 - 51 - 11.31%
    55-64 - 51 - 11.31%


  • #4910
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    9k+ to be announced
    Prof Philip Nolan:

    “A very large volume of positive tests in recent days means there is a delay in formal reporting.

    In excess of *9,000* additional new cases will be reported over the coming days.”

    That could be similar to summer peak then.


  • #4911
    Amirani
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,554 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    hmmm wrote: »
    We know when we drop the Level 5 hammer it will level off. People are spooked however I agree.

    Some are. My neighbours seem to be having a bit of a house party tonight, which they don't do much. I'm hoping this isn't in any way representative of a large cohort of people not viewing the current situation as serious. No idea what they're at.


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  • #4912
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Amirani wrote: »
    Some are. My neighbours seem to be having a bit of a house party tonight, which they don't do much. I'm hoping this isn't in any way representative of a large cohort of people not viewing the current situation as serious. No idea what they're at.
    Not so long ago we suggested to someone that they move a 40th wedding anniversary celebration to later in the year (2021) and you'd swear we had asked them to end the marriage. Thankfully wiser heads prevailed, but you do have to wonder about some people.


  • #4913
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    The best way to get us back in a reasonable position is a hard lockdown for 4 weeks, school closed, construction shut, only healthcare and emergency services etc in offices

    Of course it's pure common sense but should have been done weeks ago.


  • #4914
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,575 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    majcos wrote: »
    Regarding hospitalisations in last 14 days up to 30/12/20, 451 people were admitted.

    Just slightly over 50% of those are under 65.

    20 are in age group 0-18 years. This equates to 4.43% of all admissions. A month ago admissions in this age group amounted to 3.5%.

    19-24 years - 29 cases admitted - 6.43% of all admissions
    25-34 - 43 - 9.53%
    35-44 - 34 - 7.54%
    45-54 - 51 - 11.31%
    55-64 - 51 - 11.31%

    You would need a much larger sample and the stats broken down to only include the new variant to draw any conclusions. I'd be surprised if the UK doesn't have data at this stage and you have to think they would be saying something if they thought anomalies existed.


  • #4915
    Tpcl20
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 293 ✭✭Tpcl20


    https://twitter.com/VillageMagIRE/status/1345131186008551424?s=20

    Well done Europe, shafting everyone with a bad gamble.


  • #4916
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Of course it's pure common sense but should have been done weeks ago.
    But at a huge economic cost. I know we all want the figures to go down, but you get to a point of diminishing returns on restrictions where you are (e.g.) telling business that are mostly outdoors to close, or telling shops they can't run a bare-bones click and collect service.

    You could just as easily say that people working at home are a risk because they may require visits from broadband engineers, and we should be turning off all broadband services to reduce the risk. Suspend all post because the postman might have breathed on the envelope. Close all supermarkets and give everyone a sack of turnips for the month.

    Ridiculous scenarios, but you might see my point.


  • #4917
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Tpcl20 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/VillageMagIRE/status/1345131186008551424?s=20

    Well done Europe, shafting everyone with a bad gamble.
    If we'd been sitting here after the Pfizer vaccine failed in trials, people would be blaming the EU for wasting money.

    The EU (rightly) spread its bets across multiple vaccines and multiple manufacturers. If the captain hindsights could have told us in advance that the mRNA vaccines would achieve 95% efficiency and we should order a billion of them alone, it would have made ordering a lot simpler.


  • #4918
    embraer170
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,487 ✭✭✭embraer170


    In one Belgian care home, 26 dead residents and 85 more who have tested positive following a pre Christmas event where a guest came in dressed as St Nicholas to offer presents.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/31/covid-outbreak-hits-belgian-care-home-after-santa-visit

    84e1c8e6-4922-11eb-baa7-5eff71d822f1_web_scale_0.5730659_0.573066__.jpg?maxheight=460&maxwidth=638&scale=both


  • #4919
    majcos
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 596 ✭✭✭majcos


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    You would need a much larger sample and the stats broken down to only include the new variant to draw any conclusions. I'd be surprised if the UK doesn't have data at this stage and you have to think they would be saying something if they thought anomalies existed.
    Of course. It’s far too early to draw any conclusions on the clinical behaviour of the variant strains in any age group based on this data. That wasn’t really my intention.

    Had started writing that post more to highlight that not everyone admitted to hospital is over 80. I only added the comparison on the younger age group as it was an age group that had been just mentioned. There is no statistical significance that can be drawn from the comparison. Will add an edit to post above so as not to mislead anyone.


  • #4920
    Derek Zoolander
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 434 ✭✭Derek Zoolander


    Tpcl20 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/VillageMagIRE/status/1345131186008551424?s=20

    Well done Europe, shafting everyone with a bad gamble.

    Don’t think that article is factual / it states US ordered 600m of the Pfizer vaccines - that’s not true - US initially ordered 100m and in the last few weeks doubled that order.. EU ordered 300m from Pfizer


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  • #4921
    ElJeffe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    hmmm wrote: »
    But at a huge economic cost. I know we all want the figures to go down, but you get to a point of diminishing returns on restrictions where you are (e.g.) telling business that are mostly outdoors to close, or telling shops they can't run a bare-bones click and collect service.

    You could just as easily say that people working at home are a risk because they may require visits from broadband engineers, and we should be turning off all broadband services to reduce the risk. Suspend all post because the postman might have breathed on the envelope. Close all supermarkets and give everyone a sack of turnips for the month.

    Ridiculous scenarios, but you might see my point.

    I hear you but Covid running rampant for months is worse for the economy than a proper lockdown. It was time for big boys pants weeks ago and we failed miserably.


This discussion has been closed.
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