COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 2 [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Ah the rates of vaccinations in Ireland so far, who wants to put a date on when the country will achieve "Herd Immunity"...

I'm estimating Spring 2022....

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Ah the rates of vaccinations in Ireland so far, who wants to put a date on when the country will achieve "Herd Immunity"...

I'm estimating Spring 2022....

No chance . Sure the people done this year will need to vaccinated again at the start of 2022

I'm guessing we are just level 5 forever

Sweet.Science wrote: »

No chance . Sure the people done this year will need to vaccinated again at the start of 2022
I'm guessing we are just level 5 forever

The other issue is that by the time Ireland has vaccinated enough to achieve herd immunity that the virus may then have developed into another strain which makes it more resistant to the current vaccine so in 14 months time they will need to start again with an updated vaccine... a never ending cycle..

Sweet.Science wrote: »

No chance . Sure the people done this year will need to vaccinated again at the start of 2022

I'm guessing we are just level 5 forever

Tenzor07 wrote: »

The other issue is that by the time Ireland has vaccinated enough to achieve herd immunity that the virus may then have developed into another strain which makes it more resistant to the current vaccine so in 14 months time they will need to start again with an updated vaccine... a never ending cycle..

What would we do without the boards armchair experts, eh?

Or maybe it’s wishful thinking? Will ye be taking the vaccine? I’m curious.

I guess the narrative has to change because the “ won’t be a vaccine” “ vaccine is a pipe dream” “ the vaccine is a carrot on a stick” , has already been disproven.

And we are giving out about our own crowd...just read this on Sky News:

“Vaccine shortages are likely to cause problems for "several months", England's chief medical officer has warned, amid fears that emergency healthcare staff at COVID "battle stations" are at risk of burnout”

Looks like everything is going to plan everywhere! Happy New Year!!

JTMan wrote: »

When will things return to normal?

Bloomberg reports here:
- Hence, things start to get better from Valentine’s Day with the problem largely gone by June. .

There's a big assumption in the first article:

"But if inoculated people can’t transmit the virus"

Everyone's hoping the vaccines reduce transmission, but that might not be the case. And there's a risk that some vaccinated people drive transmission in the short term as they may be less careful. We have to be realistic about how long it will take vaccines to have a big impact, and mid-February is not realistic.

Gael23 wrote: »

Applying pressure works clearly

Yeah, if it wasn't for your posts the lads wouldnt have thought about injecting people...

AdamD wrote: »

Ireland's major issue is supply, its too early to judge our distribution, I fully accept that.

However these are two really crap reasons to discount what Israel have done. Their sole objective is to protect Israel? Ok great, and our vaccine program should be currently our number 1 priority..

They're doing it because there's an election soon? Genuinely I'm lost for words with that one. I couldn't care less about their motives, they're showing that it can be done. If we had an election in March and managed to end the pandemic in time for it I sure as **** wouldn't be seeing that in a cynical light.

If we had their supply, their median age, their population density and their medical military personnel we could have done the same.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They are extra doses. They weren’t supposed to have that many this weekend, not they do.

As I said, a boost in the supply chain.

Yes, until either Ox/AZ or J&J come through, we are going to be dawdling about with no mass vaccination whatsoever with our limited supplies of BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. Hopefully, the pressure will come from elsewhere once other countries catch-up and hit the limits of forward planning without supply. At present, we are constrained a little by slowest mover inertia. It seems neither the French nor the Polish are particularly pushed with pro-vaccination polls showing around 40%, yet over the border in Germany, and arguably here as well, there is significant pressure to ramp up. Basically parallel worlds...

You were right about the Pfizer single dose experiment, agreed by CMOs of Eng/Scot/Wal/NI, so we'll see how that goes in the UK and it could be adopted elsewhere if actually providing 90% efficacy after 8-12 weeks.

lbj666 wrote: »

Think is German pressure on the Pfizer approval was simply "any chance you could work late and pull the meeting forward"

With the Astra Zeneca it seems more complicated and holdup seems to be more on the manufacturers end....I presume they are going to keep producing at risk until approval. Sound like we are going to have a very frustrating January early February but then have a lot more supply coming at us all at once.

For the Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccine is it simply that places like the EU are less a priory, they have UK approval and due to its low cost and easy handling it's going to be the vaccine used by the huge amount of less developed countries.

Read a unsourced comment that it was the academic side involved with the trial design not the astra zeneca side so they designed it for gathering data rather than being laser focussed on the approval framework.
No idea if it's true but doesn't sound unbelievable for a academic and commercial partnership that something like this would happen.

Russman wrote: »

I’ve followed and found this thread and the posters to be really informative but, from a layman’s perspective, is it just me or does the AZ /Oxford situation just seem to be a bit of a sh1tshow all round ? There’s the FD/FD vs HD/FD issue, was it an accident, was it planned ? The EMA not having enough info re quality, AZ not having even applied yet for approval, the Brits approving at the drop of a hat, the timing of the doses now seeming to be open to debate.
I dunno, just seems like amateur hour with this one. As I say, purely from a layman’s perspective.

Or have they all simply been blown out of the water with the success of the mRNA vaccines and “new” science ?

Simple explanation:

http://arethebritsatitagain.com

Russman wrote: »

I’ve followed and found this thread and the posters to be really informative but, from a layman’s perspective, is it just me or does the AZ /Oxford situation just seem to be a bit of a sh1tshow all round ? There’s the FD/FD vs HD/FD issue, was it an accident, was it planned ? The EMA not having enough info re quality, AZ not having even applied yet for approval, the Brits approving at the drop of a hat, the timing of the doses now seeming to be open to debate.
I dunno, just seems like amateur hour with this one. As I say, purely from a layman’s perspective.

Or have they all simply been blown out of the water with the success of the mRNA vaccines and “new” science ?

I think it’s just a case of being blown out of the water by the efficacy of the mRNA vaccines. 62% effective would have been a huge result 3 months ago. Now it’s a poor result. So they’ve tried to leverage the half-dose screwup, but in reality the cleanest thing to do would have been to reset the trial focussed on the half-dose/full-dose regimen. Now it feels a little like they’re trying to latch on to regulators (UK) willing to take a chance, which the EMA is not. This in turn feeds into the shady/half-ass perception. The UK shimmying the Pfizer rules doesn’t help this either, as they’re starting to be seen as desperate enough to take chances.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

An interesting idea

https://twitter.com/dougleddin/status/1344970924492206092?s=19

I know in Scotland Brewdog are in discussions with the government there over the same thing.

That would need a risk assessment and a health and safety audit for each site which would take months.
Great idea but public sector red tape will just make it too difficult

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Looks like Oxford vaccine about to get emergency use clearance in India, expected to begin rollout January 6th

Your going to see a lot of this, even if it's only 62% effective minimum that's still a big improvement. Also AFAIK there was no actual hospitalisation of the trail group. Perfect is the enemy of good and for countries like India I imagine the Pfizer vaccine wouldn't be workable due to logistics and be too expensive.