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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #2402
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    15 contacts is far too many, 30 + is just plain ridiculous.
    No tracing system could out up with that.

    Imagine 2,000 positive tests each multiplied by 30. Thats another 60,000 calls to make.

    Just heard from someone who was identified as a close contact.
    Just got a text to register on a website, no calls are being made.


  • #2403
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    For the most part on here we have a variety of views on all sides and some in-between, which are held by reasonably rational and sane people.

    Then there are some, mainly a lot of very recent registrations, posters who appear to lead quite pathetic little lives resulting in a desire to simply troll. Sad little people. Pity there isn't a minimum time to be a member before posting.


  • #2404
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,121 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Private hospitals are on standby I presume in the planning for the post Christmas certainty that this escalation would happen. I hope so.


  • #2405
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    No one is scaremongering.

    People are staying the facts as they are with virus spread

    Attempting to play it down is even less helpful

    While I don't agree with the original poster, posters saying if will be like bergamo here soon is hardly stating facts and is scaremongering.


  • #2406
    Necro
    Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,315 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Yes, there are dickheads out there who just don't care and put everyone around them at risk but at the end of the day the crisis we are now going in to was not helped by the loosening of restrictions despite advice. The government has to own those decisions.

    All we can do now is hope the health service will cope under the increases in admissions and in to ICU.

    Mod:

    Threadbanned

    Moderator: Current Affairs/IMHO, Soccer, Pro Wrestling



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  • #2407
    WoollyRedHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,462 ✭✭✭✭WoollyRedHat


    ginoginelli wrote: »
    Tbh I think track and trace worldwide was a flawed strategy from the get go. Advocated early on from the WHO as a way to control the virus nearly every country that tried to adopt it failed.

    It only succeeded in countries that had very low relative infection rates to begin with and/or wealthy tech savvy nations that poured massive human resources into the system.

    Then you had privacy issues and public compliance issues as well.

    Those resources pumped into the track and trace probably would have been better spent in other covid preventive areas.


    A simplified test and trace strategy on it's own with this type of virus with high and rapid transmission was never going to work.

    The below summary is from a paper that was uploaded to the WHO Institutional Repository for Information Sharing , puts it well and uses an excellent 'Snakes and Ladders' analogy. The system should be seen as preventative measure, to halt spread before it overwhelms health systems. It's time-dependent, once cases are out of control, the system buckles.

    "In order to ease lockdown restrictions and prevent a
    second wave of infections, countries must be able to find, test, trace,Isolate and support new COVID-19 cases. The simplicity of the ‘test, trace, isolate’ mantra dramatically understates the multitude of time-dependent processes that must occur seamlessly for the strategy to work effectively. We reconceptualise the way out of lockdown as a Snakes and Ladders boardgame. To succeed, countries must ensure that people with COVID-19 progress through the board as quickly as
    possible by putting in place measures that enhance their public health capacity (i.e. landing on ladders) and prevent setbacks caused by having insufficient capacity (i.e. avoiding snakes).'

    Link to PDF here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/336292/Eurohealth-26-2-34-39-eng.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjVm7TMhPbtAhXBrHEKHXMtCFIQFjACegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw2XLu1ANb7Bwy8vcT8Edpib

    snakes-and-ladders-final-702x1024.png


  • #2408
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Not too surprising I guess, we'll probably hear more of this:

    A US nurse has tested positive for Covid-19 a week after receiving the vaccine, it has been reported.

    However, an infectious disease expert has stated that this is not unexpected and is in line with what is known about the jab.

    According to ABC News, Matthew W - an ER nurse in San Diego - got the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine on December 18.

    On Christmas Eve, after working a shift in a Covid ward, he became unwell.

    The nurse reportedly developed some symptoms of Covid-19 and went to a drive-up hospital testing site and later tested positive for the virus.

    Infectious disease expert Dr Christian Ramers told the news outlet that it is “not unexpected at all”.

    The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine requires two doses to be taken and Dr Ramers highlighted that the case shows that results are not immediate.

    According to the Health Service Executive in Ireland, the vaccine requires two doses “at least 21 days apart”.

    Dr Ramers said: “If you work through the numbers, this is exactly what we’d expect to happen if someone was exposed.”


    The doctor said it was possible that Matthew W had been infected prior to getting the vaccine, adding that the incubation period may be as much as two weeks.

    He added that even if Matthew was infected after getting the virus, it is still in line with what is known about the vaccine.

    “We know from the vaccine clinical trials that it’s going to take about 10 to 14 days for you to start to develop protection from the vaccine,” Dr Ramers said.

    Dr Ramers told ABC News: “That first dose we think gives you somewhere around 50%, and you need that second dose to get up to 95%.”


  • #2409
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    Exactly. Unfortunately, my current contact list is about 8 people now after seeing family at Christmas, but the people I’ve seen would without a doubt tell me/the rest of us if they were experiencing symptoms or getting tested, etc.

    Who are people mixing with that wouldn’t tell them? Mustn’t be close family or friends, in which case, why bother seeing them? Maybe I’m too idealist and expect people to care.

    Edit: also, delighted, and a little jealous, to hear you’ve been needled ;)

    I know of one family near me who had all of the relatives , and teenage children's boy and girlfriends , over on Christmas Day .
    A neighbour told my son about it . He was raging as we have been all really strict and they have found it hard .

    Thanks .
    Had to think whether to post it or not as didn't want to pvss people off but I just couldn't resist :)
    Feel like Maria from the Sound of Music singing and dancing on the mountains :))


  • #2410
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Thinking would 30+ contacts relate a lot of the time to essential workplaces like meat factorys and doctors/hcws and not necessarily individuals all the time?


  • #2411
    Turtwig
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    niallo27 wrote: »
    While I don't agree with the original poster, posters saying if will be like bergamo here soon is hardly stating facts and is scaremongering.

    It's difficult at this point to know if it is. Cases are in the wrong demographics. Certainly, I wouldn't consider it a disproportionate fear. I don't think we'll ever have a Bergamo situation but that's only if we act proactively in the next few weeks. That said, our goal shouldn't be to avoid Bergamo the goal should to be to maintain all non covid related health care. The latter is in serious jeopardy.


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  • #2412
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Martina1991 wrote: »

    Where's this new lab supposed to be do you know?

    At least we have a contract in place with the German lab to relieve some pressure. It's the contact tracing that will collapse the system.
    HSE spokesperson didn't say, just that there will be one.


  • #2413
    William Faithful Deer
    Posts: 0 ✭ William Faithful Deer


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    People need to calm down. We've had 2200 deaths out of a population of 4,700,000 and most people were over 80 and with underlying conditions.

    Stop scare mongering other people and yourselves.

    Ireland is doing just fine and the vacinne is on the way.

    Calm down people. Once the hospitals can manage we are fine.

    Maybe try and face reality instead of placing your head in the sand.

    I actually don't think you have a grasp of things with that attitude. Numbers are indicating our most difficult days are ahead of us.


  • #2414
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    speckle wrote: »
    Thinking would 30+ contacts relate a lot of the time to essential workplaces like meat factorys and doctors/hcws and not necessarily individuals all the time?

    From the HSE briefing earlier
    The largest number of referrals are coming from the 21-30 age group, which she said also has the highest virus detection rate at 8.9pc.

    This was followed by the 31-40 age group which accounted for 18.5pc of all testing referrals, which had a detection rate of 7.6pc.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/much-of-our-worst-concerns-have-materialised-cancel-your-activities-and-plans-hse-chief-issues-stark-warning-ahead-of-new-lockdown-39914232.html

    Sounds like lots of socialising to me tbh


  • #2415
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    Sorry I wasn't clearer, I meant that their household contacts are one person but the system isn't tracing people they're in contact with in shops, through work etc. so these people aren't notified... Except through the app if they have it, but my few experiences of people getting contacted this way have told them they don't need a test and to isolate.

    This results in further contacts like the above mentioned (shops, work exposure groups) not being detected and allowing further undetected spread.

    Should let people know in work anyway themselves , as contact tracing would not be going back more than 48 hours .
    Shops if they are following precautions and wearing masks are not an issue not deemed contacts .
    It's those they have been out with eating and drinking , without wearing a mask that they should let know to get a test or isolate .
    People give out about the nanny state and restrictions in one breath, next it's about contact tracing not being adequate , when it's the overwhelming amount of contacts some have that is causing the problem .


  • #2416
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    speckle wrote: »
    Thinking would 30+ contacts relate a lot of the time to essential workplaces like meat factorys and doctors/hcws and not necessarily individuals all the time?

    Of course it happens some of the time but it would have been the case all along if that was the case now.

    I think it's discretionary social activity and Christmas gatherings at the moment.


  • #2417
    Martina1991
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    The testing system was never fit for purpose and that's part of the reason we haven't contained this. It is based on the idea that hopefully the spread won't get out of control if only the bare minimum is done to find cases.
    WTF are you talking about. Testing capacity has far outweighed demand since the start of the summer.

    If we needed and reached a capacity of 50,000 a day it wouldn't be a sign of improving the situation, it would be a sign that we're completely f*cked.
    SpacialNeeds wrote: »
    Technically so, with our alleged positive cases being around 1500 per day, the testing system should be able to handle an average of 15 contacts per person. They're plainly not doing that many though and looking for any way out of testing and tracing people.

    You are so incredibly misinformed. The public health departments have been under the most pressure and work 7 days a week, morning to night and probably longer. They make thousands of calls a day and it doesn't put a dent into the work they have to do. You're completely dismissing and frankly sh*tting all over the work people are doing trying to keep people safe.


  • #2418
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Should let people know in work anyway themselves , as contact tracing would not be going back more than 48 hours .
    Shops if they are following precautions and wearing masks are not an issue not deemed contacts .
    It's those they have been out with eating and drinking , without wearing a mask that they should let know to get a test or isolate .
    People give out about the nanny state and restrictions in one breath, next it's about contact tracing not being adequate , when it's the overwhelming amount of contacts some have that is causing the problem .

    We've a weekly questionnaire we have to complete in work even though the vast majority of us are wfh

    One of the questions is if we have been in contact with a confirmed case.

    If anyone has to go to the office they complete it daily


  • #2419
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    This is very concerning. The new strain becoming dominate in Scotland.

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1344312343237451781


  • #2420
    Pcgamer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 139 ✭✭Pcgamer


    Kallie Future Marinade wrote: »
    Maybe try and face reality instead of placing your head in the sand.

    I actually don't think you have a grasp of things with that attitude. Numbers are indicating our most difficult days are ahead of us.

    I actually do. People are still scare mongering when Irelands situation isn't that bad.


  • #2421
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    A lot of people seem to have gone on shopping trips the weekend before Christmas, Dublin,Belfast etc.. Kids went into school on the following Monday and spread it around, holiday weekend slowed the tests and now the contacts are way too many


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  • #2422
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    petes wrote: »
    Which persona have we got today? You were both at a house party and calling for schools to close in the space of a few posts not so long ago

    Probably a teenage schoolkid taking a break from playstation and partying , lol;)


  • #2423
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Pcgamer wrote: »
    I actually do. People are still scare mongering when Irelands situation isn't that bad.

    I have been more so on the opening up side of the fence on this particularly in terms of retail, but I think we are right on the edge (and perhaps beyond) from going from the situation isn’t too bad to the situation is absolutely dire. We now need that circuit break.


  • #2424
    Antares35
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,845 ✭✭✭Antares35


    oldtimeyfella wrote: »
    Anyone else been out and about today? Was on my way home from work there a short while ago and the roads areabsolutely packed.


    Went to stop off at Aldi and did a u-turn because there were maybe 4 or 5 empty parking spaces. Very little at home in the freezer because i was avoiding the pre-christmas madness in the supermarkets :(
    Please don't say people are panic buying again...


  • #2425
    Goldengirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,853 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    jackboy wrote: »
    Some people still don’t realise that the hospitals will go from fine to completely overwhelmed very quickly.

    Agree.
    Got a cold shiver reading this though .


  • #2426
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Stheno wrote: »
    From the HSE briefing earlier



    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/much-of-our-worst-concerns-have-materialised-cancel-your-activities-and-plans-hse-chief-issues-stark-warning-ahead-of-new-lockdown-39914232.html

    Sounds like lots of socialising to me tbh

    I was thinking of the 41? doctors having to isolate... but that article answers my question... average is 6 contacts per person.. which is where I thought it woukd be over Xmas... why do they talk about 30 at the presser then.. detest scaremongering ... want facts... will have to listen back incase it got lost in translation here... by the way doctors, nurses etc socialise also in those age groups and a minority break the rules like everyone else. even though the should know better.
    Thanks the 6 per person has taken my stress levels down.


  • #2427
    Scuid Mhór
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,326 ✭✭✭Scuid Mhór


    I feel like we must be at some sort of watershed moment right now. The situation, regardless of how exhausted we are of it, is much, much graver now than it was in March and any lockdown we implement is at a significant disadvantage in terms of time when compared to our first proper lockdown which was implemented when we had 36 cases if I recall correctly. The government needs to act now. I feel that it would be insane to let the schools remain open.

    When Irish historians look back at this critical juncture, I wonder if they will speculate about the humane element that went into December. If it was any other month, we would have been in a proper lockdown much earlier. But because of Christmas and the need for some sense of humanity, it was decided to let people socialise against objective medical advice.

    I myself am currently waiting to hear back to find out if I am a close contact of someone. This is the most tangible my covid-19 experience has been and it’s not a great place to be in. Do what you can not to end up in my position - the anxiety is driving me up the walls. The vaccine is being distributed and there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I would be in favour of sacrificing the next few months completely so everyone on this island can get back to normality without having to worry too much about their own mortality.

    Stay safe. Don’t over speculate, don’t fret too much. It will get worse before it gets better.


  • #2428
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,137 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Antares35 wrote: »
    Please don't say people are panic buying again...

    Don't mind him, its normal out there. People stocking up for new years.


  • #2429
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,028 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Scuid Mhór wrote: »
    I feel like we must be at some sort of watershed moment right now. The situation, regardless of how exhausted we are of it, is much, much graver now than it was in March and any lockdown we implement is at a significant disadvantage in terms of time when compared to our first proper lockdown which was implemented when we had 36 cases if I recall correctly. The government needs to act now. I feel that it would be insane to let the schools remain open.

    When Irish historians look back at this critical juncture, I wonder if they will speculate about the humane element that went into December. If it was any other month, we would have been in a proper lockdown much earlier. But because of Christmas and the need for some sense of humanity, it was decided to let people socialise against objective medical advice.

    I myself am currently waiting to hear back to find out if I am a close contact of someone. This is the most tangible my covid-19 experience has been and it’s not a great place to be in. Do what you can not to end up in my position - the anxiety is driving me up the walls. The vaccine is being distributed and there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I would be in favour of sacrificing the next few months completely so everyone on this island can get back to normality without having to worry too much about their own mortality.

    Stay safe. Don’t over speculate, don’t fret too much. It will get worse before it gets better.

    36 known cases. There was no real testing back then.

    If we had been able to test in March like we can now, we would likely have been getting thousands of cases every single day.


  • #2430
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    awec wrote: »
    36 known cases. There was no real testing back then.

    If we had been able to test in March like we can now, we would likely have been getting thousands of cases every single day.

    Not sure about 1000s but definetly 100s up to a thousand.


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  • #2431
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    I don't think the HSE could have been clearer in that briefing. Getting very real very quickly.

    Of course some would say he's being alarmist.........

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1344303257418674177?s=20


This discussion has been closed.
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