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Covid 19 Part XXX-113,332 ROI(2,282 deaths) 81,251 NI (1,384 deaths) (05/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 314 ✭✭Golfman64


    We’re not, don’t spend so much time listening to the regulars here. The schools won’t be closed again for months the other sectors closed in March will not be closed again as the economic hit is too great. Non essential retail is the new “wet pubs”

    Exactly - the final restrictions announced before Christmas haven’t even come into force yet and there is an unrelenting pursuit of sectors allowed to stay open as if they are COVID factories! Towards the end of January we will start to see a reduction in case numbers as a result of the new restrictions. Until then, patience and personal care is the name of the game. Gyms provide a very obvious health benefit and non essential retail workers ‘working’ saves in the region of €10-12 million a week in PUP payments by my calculations. Neither sector have been shown to contribute to any significant level of disease spread. The media and others would be better served reinforcing the basics of hand washing, mask wearing and adherence to the current restrictions than scaremongering and dramatisation.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    The media and others would be better served reinforcing the basics of hand washing, mask wearing and adherence to the current restrictions than scaremongering and dramatisation.

    The others been the Department of Health, HSE and NPHET.

    The most effective restrictions are already in place and the focus should be on ensuring adherence to these particularly in respect to gatherings in private homes. Instead they focus on what is not yet in place despite the low risk of these settings.

    You could not make this up. This is NPHET playing politics with people’s lives.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,153 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    The others been the Department of Health, HSE and NPHET.

    The most effective restrictions are already in place and the focus should be on ensuring adherence to these particularly in respect to gatherings in private homes. Instead they focus on what is not yet in place despite the low risk of these settings.

    You could not make this up. This is NPHET playing politics with people’s lives.

    How do you propose they ensure adherence of gatherings in private homes out of curiosity?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,024 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    Exactly - the final restrictions announced before Christmas haven’t even come into force yet and there is an unrelenting pursuit of sectors allowed to stay open as if they are COVID factories! Towards the end of January we will start to see a reduction in case numbers as a result of the new restrictions. Until then, patience and personal care is the name of the game. Gyms provide a very obvious health benefit and non essential retail workers ‘working’ saves in the region of €10-12 million a week in PUP payments by my calculations. Neither sector have been shown to contribute to any significant level of disease spread. The media and others would be better served reinforcing the basics of hand washing, mask wearing and adherence to the current restrictions than scaremongering and dramatisation.

    That is all very sensible. However, the government have always applied restrictions based on emotion rather than science or expert advice. They will likely continue to do that so there is a very high chance that gyms and non essential retail will close again.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Eod100 wrote: »
    How do you propose they ensure adherence of gatherings in private homes out of curiosity?

    You can't. Not in this country, not in our lifetimes. And I'd rather a rougher Covid-19 than give it all up to feel safer for the next 4 months.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Golfman64 wrote: »
    Exactly - the final restrictions announced before Christmas haven’t even come into force yet and there is an unrelenting pursuit of sectors allowed to stay open as if they are COVID factories! Towards the end of January we will start to see a reduction in case numbers as a result of the new restrictions. Until then, patience and personal care is the name of the game. Gyms provide a very obvious health benefit and non essential retail workers ‘working’ saves in the region of €10-12 million a week in PUP payments by my calculations. Neither sector have been shown to contribute to any significant level of disease spread. The media and others would be better served reinforcing the basics of hand washing, mask wearing and adherence to the current restrictions than scaremongering and dramatisation.

    So you're saying we should tackle a far worse situation than we found ourselves in in October with far lighter restrictions than we used back then?

    It doesn't sound great, I have to be honest. What's your thinking?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    So you're saying we should tackle a far worse situation than we found ourselves in in October with far lighter restrictions than we used back then?

    It doesn't sound great, I have to be honest. What's your thinking?

    What is far lighter about the latest restrictions? Non essential retail open and not being restricted to 5km?

    Thats not far lighter imo


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Eod100 wrote: »
    How do you propose they ensure adherence of gatherings in private homes out of curiosity?

    Target PR and messaging around this risk without muddying that narrative with non essential retail. This was effective in October.

    If there are big parties there are new powers available. Although I see hearts and minds as been more effective.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    How come the high cases in October didn't lead to a surge I'm hospital figures?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,032 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    wadacrack wrote: »
    We need stricter restrictions. Don't like saying that and am sick of all this but we could be left in a position where hospitals struggle for staff never mind being overrun which looks inevitable. I don't think people are grasping how bad this is becoming. People seem more concerned with the vaccine and the roll out plan for Ireland is pretty underwhelming to say the least.


    People are only looking for cute ways around the current restrictions.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    How come the high cases in October didn't lead to a surge I'm hospital figures?

    Age and the number of confirmed cases in March/April was a fraction of what were the real numbers.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    How come the high cases in October didn't lead to a surge I'm hospital figures?

    ICU figures have been very stable since October even now

    Perhaps its better treatment?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,893 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    How come the high cases in October didn't lead to a surge I'm hospital figures?

    I think it was mainly demographics....mostly younger people catching the virus then.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,524 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    I suspect that I will be wasting my time, but I am going to express the thought that it's time there was some serious discussion about the way forward, with emphasis on things like what is regarded as essential retail compared to non essential retail, which seems to have been ignored for a long time.

    In the same vein, what do people regard as "appropriate" restrictions on things like movement, and visiting other households, as well as aspects of "working from home", which is still very vague, and not really well defined or discussed.

    It's becoming clear that the whole Covid scenario is balanced on a knife edge, between the arrival and delivery of vaccines, and the arrival, and rapid spread of the "UK" variant, which seems to be spreading like wildfire, it's very unclear to me if "the system" will be able to cope, if the UK figures are to be believed, the hospitals are going to be even more stressed very soon, and if we want to get on top of the numbers and get the R number down again, there also needs to be a discussion about the validity and importance of keeping all schools open or not.

    A much more transparent and open discussion needs to happen urgently about the whole aspect of information, there are reams of data being thrown around, regular pages of information being posted on sites like this, but making real sense of some of the figures is becoming increasingly hard, as an example, constantly repeating the increasing number of people that have had covid from Day 1 is now only fuelling a "lots have had it so reopen the restaurants and pubs for them" concept. I'm not going to be definitive about my feelings on that, as there will be a cohort of people that will immediately launch into yet another circular diatribe about the relevance or otherwise of their pet theory.

    Then there's the whole aspect of how the HSE are performing, at all levels, and while we might not be able to immediately influence changes there, I can't help thinking that it is long overdue for a lot of people to start bending the ears of their elected representatives to make it clear that we expect some much more strident leadership from the political parties, and allowing the current mess to continue to operate as it does is no longer acceptable. The people working very hard at the front line of health deserve better, in terms of support, finance, buildings, both in terms of quality and location, and much more, there are way too many services and facilities that are operating in locations that are just not suitable, and way too many delays in delivering new services that have been promised, but then nothing is happening about delivering those services. Covid has served to highlight so many areas that are not functioning as they are supposed to, long delays that have significant impact on the eventual delivery of a service have become even worse as a result of people being redeployed to other areas, and all that has done is make a bad situation worse, without a real benefit being seen in things like track and trace, which seems to be completely non functional at the moment, and not delivering.

    On the aspects of travel, it's become very clear in recent days just how many cases of Covid are happening as a result of international travel, there have been more than a few reports over the last 48 hours of cases across the globe that have been traced back to incoming travellers from the UK. We can be sure that a significant number of the 30,000+ people that came home for Christmas carried some unwelcome presents with them, and that die is now well and truly cast, so why is it proving so hard to get on top of having a functional testing and checking system for people coming in to the country? And yes, I am well aware of the problems of a very leaky and porous border that is a major problem with getting things under control.

    We're in trouble, deep trouble, and the way out is very much not clear, and it's going to need some very clear speaking, and very brave decisions to get back out of the mess that's now in danger of engulfing the system. To those who would say "but, but, the numbers are small", that's because the total population of the island is less than most large cities across the globe, so if the numbers become large, we're beyond in trouble.

    In a nutshell, we're beyond the point where "I want my local wet pub open again", or " I need my favourite local gym to stay open", if that's the level of your thinking, you are part of the problem, and we need everyone to become part of the solution, urgently.

    It's going to be interesting to see what the response to this is, I'm not hopeful, given the way this and other related threads have gone in recent weeks.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



  • Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    How come the high cases in October didn't lead to a surge I'm hospital figures?

    In March there was likely a lot more undetected cases than there were detected cases.


  • Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    ElJeffe wrote: »
    The Xmas cases won't have even started to come through yet im afraid.

    People where warned and they didn't care.

    This is not true.

    People keep talking about 14 days as if it takes 14 days for it to be noticed. 14 days is the extreme, the average is 5 days for symptoms to show. People getting tested now and coming through the system now will include people who were exposed in the few days leading up to Christmas Day itself, i.e. when people started to travel to, or were already in their christmas bubbles.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,398 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    The numbers were high in October and yet the doomsday predictions didn't come true.

    I think people need to calm down a tad


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Stheno wrote: »
    What is far lighter about the latest restrictions? Non essential retail open and not being restricted to 5km?

    Thats not far lighter imo

    Well they're pretty substantial things imo, but there's also gyms, pools, hotels etc

    Adherence to the restrictions has gone from pretty good to really poor. We can't afford to gamble that it will markedly improve again, so I'd take the risk away by enforced closures.
    Besides, now more than ever we should be staying the **** home.

    I know that all sounds pretty drastic, but we are in a terrible state


  • Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Well they're pretty substantial things imo, but there's also gyms, pools, hotels etc

    Adherence to the restrictions has gone from pretty good to really poor. We can't afford to gamble that it will markedly improve again, so I'd take the risk away by enforced closures.
    Besides, now more than ever we should be staying the **** home.

    I know that all sounds pretty drastic, but we are in a terrible state

    Adherence to restrictions has dropped because of restriction fatigue.

    And we've had nothing but "it's concerning" from public health figures for months on end. Now that things genuinely are concerning, fewer people are listening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Why can't schools stay open if everyone is wearing masks?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    El Sueño wrote: »
    The numbers were high in October and yet the doomsday predictions didn't come true.

    I think people need to calm down a tad

    There have been doomsday predictions since the start of this. BLM marches, every bank holiday weekend since the start of this. One of the most abhorrent scaremongering was from T.Ryan his prediction was hundreds of children would die if the schools reopened. For that nonsense alone he should never have had a microphone trust in his face again. Hopefully government /TD’s wil not be driven by hysterical voices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,398 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Adherence to the restrictions has gone from pretty good to really poor.

    Really poor? I'm not sure about that, from what I've seen most are still adhering to the restrictions for the most part
    I know that all sounds pretty drastic, but we are in a terrible state

    I can't see how anyone can say we're in a "terrible state" at this moment in time, that would surely indicate the hospitals are overrun etc?


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 56,345 Mod ✭✭✭✭Necro


    awec wrote: »
    Adherence to restrictions has dropped because of restriction fatigue.

    And we've had nothing but "it's concerning" from public health figures for months on end. Now that things genuinely are concerning, fewer people are listening.

    I must admit, Tony Holohan going on and on about being concerned for months has made the actual phrase next to useless.

    There's no doubt that we are probably staring into larger numbers than March in the coming 10 days or so.

    But the robotic phrases of 'The numbers are concerning' and 'The next two weeks are crucial' have lost all effect because it's the same line trotted out since March.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 725 ✭✭✭ElJeffe


    awec wrote: »
    Adherence to restrictions has dropped because of restriction fatigue.

    And we've had nothing but "it's concerning" from public health figures for months on end. Now that things genuinely are concerning, fewer people are listening.

    Restriction fatigue is just a fancy name for selfishness.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    El Sueño wrote: »
    The numbers were high in October and yet the doomsday predictions didn't come true.

    I think people need to calm down a tad
    What age were the cases in October?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,398 ✭✭✭Deeper Blue


    Necro wrote: »
    I must admit, Tony Holohan going on and on about being concerned for months has made the actual phrase next to useless.

    There's no doubt that we are probably staring into larger numbers than March in the coming 10 days or so.

    But the robotic phrases of 'The numbers are concerning' and 'The next two weeks are crucial' have lost all effect because it's the same line trotted out since March.

    Sure when there were a dozen cases in July Holohan was still "concerned"

    When you say the same thing over and over it's inevitable that people will stop listening.


  • Administrators Posts: 55,044 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    ElJeffe wrote: »
    Restriction fatigue is just a fancy name for selfishness.

    It really isn't.

    There is quite a bit of sneering on this forum from some posters, yourself included, at those who are unable to cope with this miserable existence as well as you are.

    People who are utterly obsessed at the numbers, and nothing else matters. The numbers must drop at all costs, it doesn't matter what that cost is.

    In the real world, things are more complicated and nuanced. The longer restrictions go on, the lower compliance will be. This is not selfishness, it is reality.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    awec wrote: »
    Adherence to restrictions has dropped because of restriction fatigue.

    And we've had nothing but "it's concerning" from public health figures for months on end. Now that things genuinely are concerning, fewer people are listening.

    There is restriction fatigue. No doubt.

    There is also an absence of a narrative focusing on the real risks. The biggest risk over the next few days is not shoppers in brown Thomas or someone taking a swim.

    It is big and small parties in private homes up and down the country particularly on New Years Eve. There are already restrictions on place and the messaging needs to double down on this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,636 ✭✭✭JeffKenna


    awec wrote: »
    It really isn't.

    There is quite a bit of sneering on this forum from some posters, yourself included, at those who are unable to cope with this miserable existence as well as you are.

    People who are utterly obsessed at the numbers, and nothing else matters. The numbers must drop at all costs, it doesn't matter what that cost is.

    In the real world, things are more complicated and nuanced. The longer restrictions go on, the lower compliance will be. This is not selfishness, it is reality.

    It should be said as well the restrictions suit some of the more socially awkward people.


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Necro wrote: »
    I must admit, Tony Holohan going on and on about being concerned for months has made the actual phrase next to useless.

    There's no doubt that we are probably staring into larger numbers than March in the coming 10 days or so.

    But the robotic phrases of 'The numbers are concerning' and 'The next two weeks are crucial' have lost all effect because it's the same line trotted out since March.

    The lack of transparency has also imo caused people to stop listening along with mixed messaging

    Examples - reporting shows no clusters identified in hospitality, yet NPHET shut it down and cannot back up their reasoning

    Government guidelines currently allow visits to one other household, yet the CMO tells us not to visit people

    There needs to be clear, consistent and concise messaging

    Ideally Tony should stay in his office and we get once or twice weekly updates from either Donnelly or Martin


This discussion has been closed.
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