Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 3:55pm #1

So we are watching a little system to make landfall Wednesday morning probably in the southwest (in the early hours). A bit of uncertainty track wise on this one. It will either be Munster/South Leinster or Leinster, north Connaught and south Ulster that sees the snowfall.

It will definitely effect Ireland just a question of where...

It depends how far west and north this system manages to track.

We are more comfortably placed this time though, less marginal than yesterday.

Some models like the ECM show this advancing further east bringing snowfall for a time to much of Leinster.

Heading in to colder air

A fairly classic type of frontal snow set up with the occlusion just to the south and sub 528 dam t airmass over most of the country.

fax36s.gif?2

Temperatures within the zone of precipitation generally ranging 0 - 2c.

But there is always a catch for Dubs in particular. While it may snow in Dublin for a while gradually the wind switches onshore so it could end with a short period of rain (because this brings in slightly milder air off the Irish sea).

Hopefully by the end of today we have more consistency on the exact track.

The expectation should be between 2 - 5cm (of course more on high ground)

Some are going to wake up happy Wednesday morning.

Also snow showers will effect northern coasts later in the day as well so a dusting for northern counties by night fall possible...

To sum up for Wednesday

Likely Warning: Yellow
Snow likely Munster/Leinster (exact locations to be ironed out)...
Between 2 and 5cm should be expected
Temperatures hovering near or close to freezing on Wednesday depending on where precipitation is
Snow showers later in the day in the north, chance of dusting
Temperatures down to between -2 and 0c on Wednesday night

brb

bazlers · 28-12-2020 6:38pm

Good stuff Kermit. We will see what this produces!

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2020 8:30pm

It's great that the vaccine has brought you back to being a Weather/Snow expert again!

Keep up the good snow work!

Clonmel1000 · 28-12-2020 8:46pm

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

It's great that the vaccine has brought you back to being a Weather/Snow expert again!

Keep up the good snow work!

ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 9:14pm

GFS slightly further north, ECM slightly further south. Dublin still in with a good chance.

Taking the GFS you can see the type of temperatures Wednesday morning over most of the country, quite a cold start.

Temperature

45-778UK.GIF?28-12

Projected dew points

45-101UK.GIF?28-12

It's about where exactly the northern extremity of the precip extends to. Still uncertain whether more northern parts of Leinster, for example, will also get snowfall from this.

Quite a few boardsies will end up in the goldilocks zone one way or another.

Some models have it slightly further north, some slightly further south.

Exciting eh?

Billcarson · 28-12-2020 9:18pm

Definitely the best chance of snow yet although I fear I maybe a tad too far north here in Ashbourne.

Someone is going to get snow more then likely........

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 9:21pm

Even late afternoon on this model you can see how the temperatures are pegged back under snowfall (again could be a bit further north, a bit further south)

51-778UK.GIF?28-12

Villain · 28-12-2020 10:22pm

Harmonie is not been kind with dew points and charts show a real mix, I think high ground will be needed but hope I’m wrong.

Mount Vesuvius · 28-12-2020 10:23pm

Latest update, beautiful battleground, certainly looking like somewhere will get a dumping, exactly where this tracks is unknown, perhaps tomorrow we know for certain,
Marginal in places but all to play for.

cml387 · 28-12-2020 10:40pm

Seems to be centred on Clonmel. I shall let you know.

Oneiric 3 · 28-12-2020 10:47pm

All we need here in Connacht is for that little slider low to remain to the south, preferably passing through Galway Bay or Clare. East flow = good. West flow = bad.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 10:51pm

the models are now playing catcht-up in terms of cold and snow, whereas last week they had this last weekend colder than it occured now we're looking at locally grown cold air, with hardly any air mixing in from the Atlantic, expect systems like wednesdays to pop-up at short notice in the next 10 days.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 10:53pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

All we need here in Connacht is for that little slider low to remain to the south, preferably passing through Galway Bay or Clare. East flow = good. West flow = bad.

I remember I think it was end of December 1999 or maybe 2000 we had a slider Low, Airflow was direct north and Galway had maybe 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Captain Snow · 28-12-2020 10:55pm

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 10:57pm

Latest GFS. The snowy southeast (and a good chunk of Connaught

). The timeline is getting extended here too. It was previously a morning thing but looks like some will get the day out of it now.

Again this could all end up further north for more of Leinster

typhoony · 28-12-2020 10:58pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

The 80's were all about the Easterly, late 70's had a few notable northerlies in fact i think it was Winter 78\79 had 3 or 4 notable northerlies

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 10:59pm

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Snowbiee21 · 28-12-2020 11:00pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

Crazy isn’t it, a week ago we would of been laughing looking at Atlantic influenced charts, great to see..

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 11:00pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Light to moderate in to northern counties.

pauldry · 28-12-2020 11:00pm

I fear that even if this hits Sligo it will be rain due to sea effect and wind. Of course inland a different story. It will likely hit the middle of the country worst.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 11:01pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Slack Low\Slack winds we might see evaporitive cooling, more a period of a few hours of light snow rather than showers

nacho libre · 28-12-2020 11:04pm

A good call. As you say witH air in situ, with next to no mixing, marginal events should begin to be tipped in our favour.
Also a less than stellar easterly could be the precursor to something memorable further on. Given the Northern Hemisphere profile the odds of a high rretrogressing are more favoured than one sinking.
This still could all go pear shaped, but there is certainly potential for January to become one that we remember fondly in the future.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 11:06pm

Maybe we need to change the title. I mistook Connaught for Munster. Sorry for the offence Connaught :pac:

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 11:10pm

typhoony wrote: »

Slack Low\Slack winds we might see evaporitive cooling, more a period of a few hours of light snow rather than showers

So continuous snow on north coast?

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 11:14pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

So continuous snow on north coast?

You may have a couple of localised streamer effects but it's mostly scattered showers rather than continuous.

Slashermcguirk · 28-12-2020 11:21pm

Met Éireann website

Tuesday night: Very cold and frosty on Tuesday night with scattered wintry showers near west and north coasts. Dry and clear elsewhere for a time with frost and icy stretches developing as temperatures fall to between -3 and +2 degrees. A spell of rain will move into parts of the southwest and west late in the night and as this moves northeastwards it is likely to turn to snow in parts of the midlands, north and east.

Wednesday: Very cold in many places on Wednesday with spells of rain and sleet and some falls of snow in parts of the midlands east and north for a time in the morning

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 11:21pm

Looks like the colder air will arrive tomorrow afternoon.

John.Icy · 28-12-2020 11:24pm

Looks on a knife edge for myself in S.Kildare. Main band just slipping to my south on a few models. Need a shift north. Be nice to see my first flakes of the winter.

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 11:25pm

And a proper cold day on Wednesday. And supposedly a covering of snow here.

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 11:28pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You may have a couple of localised streamer effects but it's mostly scattered showers rather than continuous.

The Euro4 shows a covering of snow here and continuous showers. We will see.

Looks like it could be cold enough for snow tomorrow night.

Gonzo · 28-12-2020 11:29pm

not expecting anything here in Meath from this, much too far north unless the front tracks north a good bit.

Snowbiee21 · 28-12-2020 11:31pm

Gonzo wrote: »

not expecting anything here in Meath from this, much too far north unless the front tracks north a good bit.

Looks like Dublin also escapes this, I think the temps would be a little high by a degree or 2 if the band pushed further NE

pad199207 · 28-12-2020 11:32pm

Kildare looks to be the cut off point for the precipitation unless there’s a little push north. Could be snowing in Athy but not in Naas or Maynooth.

Also precipitation may be too light for anything significant even though the temperatures will be favourable. Either way something will go wrong.

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2020 11:36pm

typhoony wrote: »

I remember I think it was end of December 1999 or maybe 2000 we had a slider Low, Airflow was direct north and Galway had maybe 2 to 3 inches of snow.

December 2000. Epic snowfall in Galway.

bazlers · 28-12-2020 11:39pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met Éireann website

Tuesday night: Very cold and frosty on Tuesday night with scattered wintry showers near west and north coasts. Dry and clear elsewhere for a time with frost and icy stretches developing as temperatures fall to between -3 and +2 degrees. A spell of rain will move into parts of the southwest and west late in the night and as this moves northeastwards it is likely to turn to snow in parts of the midlands, north and east.

Wednesday: Very cold in many places on Wednesday with spells of rain and sleet and some falls of snow in parts of the midlands east and north for a time in the morning

To me it looks like its moving sotheastwards rather than northeastwards.
They think its taking a more middle to north route as regards snow anyhow. Again the morning update may change too.

booferking · 28-12-2020 11:43pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met Éireann website

Tuesday night: Very cold and frosty on Tuesday night with scattered wintry showers near west and north coasts. Dry and clear elsewhere for a time with frost and icy stretches developing as temperatures fall to between -3 and +2 degrees. A spell of rain will move into parts of the southwest and west late in the night and as this moves northeastwards it is likely to turn to snow in parts of the midlands, north and east.

Wednesday: Very cold in many places on Wednesday with spells of rain and sleet and some falls of snow in parts of the midlands east and north for a time in the morning

As this moves northeastwards think that's a tying error in there behalf nothing indicates the front moving northeastwards should be southeastwards.

Donegal Ken · 28-12-2020 11:52pm

Highest risk based on the current GFS, ECMWF ICON & Harmonie models show the highest risk been across inland Connacht Leinster and north/northeast munster. Anymore shifts further north on tomorrows runs would bring south Ulster into play. Precipitation on the northern side/cold side of the low may not be very heavy only giving small dustings in places. One thing that's is with us is the freezing level is much lower than previous days.

Some streamers possible across Coastal areas of north Connacht and north Ulster Wednesday also.

Oneiric 3 · 28-12-2020 11:54pm

ICON 18z.

I think it might be wise to put the snow plough people on high alert.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 12:04am

My advice is don't fret over who gets what. We'll know much more tomorrow.

Still changes to come.

Slashermcguirk · 29-12-2020 12:05am

They said the same thing after 9 o’clock news on weather this evening if memory serves me well with snow for midlands and east

booferking wrote: »

As this moves northeastwards think that's a tying error in there behalf nothing indicates the front moving northeastwards should be southeastwards.

yorlum11 · 29-12-2020 12:33am

I'm going for a line Sligo to Waterford. South of that and you're in with a shot. Tomorrow morning will firm up the track.

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 1:39am

THe 18Z ECMWF has backed off a little on the snow intensity in the southeast Wednesday morning. It soundings, though, are slightly less marginal, such as the one from around Kilkenny/Waterford border, in the dark blue area. A couple of hundred metres of a zero-degree, saturated isothermal layer near the surface would probably give dinnerplate flakes for a while.

Looks a better situation than yesterday.

Danno · 29-12-2020 4:47am

00z rolling out, slightly less precip, but still crossing where the 18z said. Uppers slightly cooler overland along the front, which is good for snow.

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 4:50am

Looks increasingly likely it's a Connaught, south Leinster and east Munster event for this system

33-779UK.GIF?29-0

Temperatures for Wednesday though are really struggling. Snow showers in to northern counties too.

39-778UK.GIF?29-0

Villain · 29-12-2020 8:34am

Latest charts overnight are big downgrade for this event, could still change but very little showing on high resolution charts.

Rebelbrowser · 29-12-2020 9:28am

Villain wrote: »

Latest charts overnight are big downgrade for this event, could still change but very little showing on high resolution charts.

Very little precipitation or very little snow Villian? Thanks in advance....

Villain · 29-12-2020 9:29am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Very little precipitation or very little snow Villian? Thanks in advance....

Much less precip and further South.

Rebelbrowser · 29-12-2020 9:33am

Villain wrote: »

Much less precip and further South.

Thanks. Being very IMBY, that could work out well for South / West Munster so if the precipitation is effectively getting repelled by the cold air over those parts as opposed to further north...

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 10:21am

Cold spell on Wednesday is still on its way but ANOTHER warm core is forecast! Why do we get so many warm cores?

pad199207 · 29-12-2020 11:00am

BBC not even getting the precipitation into Leinster. Rain gets into Munster however.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 11:17am

Precipitation appears to be falling as snow above 200-300 metres already!

Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

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