Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 02:55PM #1

So we are watching a little system to make landfall Wednesday morning probably in the southwest (in the early hours). A bit of uncertainty track wise on this one. It will either be Munster/South Leinster or Leinster, north Connaught and south Ulster that sees the snowfall.

It will definitely effect Ireland just a question of where...

It depends how far west and north this system manages to track.

We are more comfortably placed this time though, less marginal than yesterday.

Some models like the ECM show this advancing further east bringing snowfall for a time to much of Leinster.

Heading in to colder air

A fairly classic type of frontal snow set up with the occlusion just to the south and sub 528 dam t airmass over most of the country.

fax36s.gif?2

Temperatures within the zone of precipitation generally ranging 0 - 2c.

But there is always a catch for Dubs in particular. While it may snow in Dublin for a while gradually the wind switches onshore so it could end with a short period of rain (because this brings in slightly milder air off the Irish sea).

Hopefully by the end of today we have more consistency on the exact track.

The expectation should be between 2 - 5cm (of course more on high ground)

Some are going to wake up happy Wednesday morning.

Also snow showers will effect northern coasts later in the day as well so a dusting for northern counties by night fall possible...

To sum up for Wednesday

Likely Warning: Yellow
Snow likely Munster/Leinster (exact locations to be ironed out)...
Between 2 and 5cm should be expected
Temperatures hovering near or close to freezing on Wednesday depending on where precipitation is
Snow showers later in the day in the north, chance of dusting
Temperatures down to between -2 and 0c on Wednesday night

brb

bazlers · 28-12-2020 05:38PM

Good stuff Kermit. We will see what this produces!

Cluedo Monopoly · 28-12-2020 07:30PM

It's great that the vaccine has brought you back to being a Weather/Snow expert again!

Keep up the good snow work!

Clonmel1000 · 28-12-2020 07:46PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

It's great that the vaccine has brought you back to being a Weather/Snow expert again!

Keep up the good snow work!

ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚ðŸ˜‚

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 08:14PM

GFS slightly further north, ECM slightly further south. Dublin still in with a good chance.

Taking the GFS you can see the type of temperatures Wednesday morning over most of the country, quite a cold start.

Temperature

45-778UK.GIF?28-12

Projected dew points

45-101UK.GIF?28-12

It's about where exactly the northern extremity of the precip extends to. Still uncertain whether more northern parts of Leinster, for example, will also get snowfall from this.

Quite a few boardsies will end up in the goldilocks zone one way or another.

Some models have it slightly further north, some slightly further south.

Exciting eh?

Billcarson · 28-12-2020 08:18PM

Definitely the best chance of snow yet although I fear I maybe a tad too far north here in Ashbourne.

Someone is going to get snow more then likely........

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 08:21PM

Even late afternoon on this model you can see how the temperatures are pegged back under snowfall (again could be a bit further north, a bit further south)

51-778UK.GIF?28-12

Villain · 28-12-2020 09:22PM

Harmonie is not been kind with dew points and charts show a real mix, I think high ground will be needed but hope I’m wrong.

Mount Vesuvius · 28-12-2020 09:23PM

Latest update, beautiful battleground, certainly looking like somewhere will get a dumping, exactly where this tracks is unknown, perhaps tomorrow we know for certain,
Marginal in places but all to play for.

cml387 · 28-12-2020 09:40PM

Seems to be centred on Clonmel. I shall let you know.

Oneiric 3 · 28-12-2020 09:47PM

All we need here in Connacht is for that little slider low to remain to the south, preferably passing through Galway Bay or Clare. East flow = good. West flow = bad.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 09:51PM

the models are now playing catcht-up in terms of cold and snow, whereas last week they had this last weekend colder than it occured now we're looking at locally grown cold air, with hardly any air mixing in from the Atlantic, expect systems like wednesdays to pop-up at short notice in the next 10 days.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 09:53PM

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

All we need here in Connacht is for that little slider low to remain to the south, preferably passing through Galway Bay or Clare. East flow = good. West flow = bad.

I remember I think it was end of December 1999 or maybe 2000 we had a slider Low, Airflow was direct north and Galway had maybe 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Captain Snow · 28-12-2020 09:55PM

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 09:57PM

Latest GFS. The snowy southeast (and a good chunk of Connaught

). The timeline is getting extended here too. It was previously a morning thing but looks like some will get the day out of it now.

Again this could all end up further north for more of Leinster

typhoony · 28-12-2020 09:58PM

Captain Snow wrote: »

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

The 80's were all about the Easterly, late 70's had a few notable northerlies in fact i think it was Winter 78\79 had 3 or 4 notable northerlies

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 09:59PM

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Snowbiee21 · 28-12-2020 10:00PM

Captain Snow wrote: »

If we get a good covering, snow could be around for a few days on lower ground, weeks on higher ground as there is no sight of any milder weather for the foreseeable future....Plenty of frosty weather on the cards too. Reminds me of a 80,s winter.

Crazy isn’t it, a week ago we would of been laughing looking at Atlantic influenced charts, great to see..

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 10:00PM

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Light to moderate in to northern counties.

pauldry · 28-12-2020 10:00PM

I fear that even if this hits Sligo it will be rain due to sea effect and wind. Of course inland a different story. It will likely hit the middle of the country worst.

typhoony · 28-12-2020 10:01PM

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Wonder how much snow could come from the showers? How frequent are they?

Slack Low\Slack winds we might see evaporitive cooling, more a period of a few hours of light snow rather than showers

nacho libre · 28-12-2020 10:04PM

A good call. As you say witH air in situ, with next to no mixing, marginal events should begin to be tipped in our favour.
Also a less than stellar easterly could be the precursor to something memorable further on. Given the Northern Hemisphere profile the odds of a high rretrogressing are more favoured than one sinking.
This still could all go pear shaped, but there is certainly potential for January to become one that we remember fondly in the future.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 10:06PM

Maybe we need to change the title. I mistook Connaught for Munster. Sorry for the offence Connaught :pac:

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 10:10PM

typhoony wrote: »

Slack Low\Slack winds we might see evaporitive cooling, more a period of a few hours of light snow rather than showers

So continuous snow on north coast?

Kermit.de.frog · 28-12-2020 10:14PM

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

So continuous snow on north coast?

You may have a couple of localised streamer effects but it's mostly scattered showers rather than continuous.

Slashermcguirk · 28-12-2020 10:21PM

Met Éireann website

Tuesday night: Very cold and frosty on Tuesday night with scattered wintry showers near west and north coasts. Dry and clear elsewhere for a time with frost and icy stretches developing as temperatures fall to between -3 and +2 degrees. A spell of rain will move into parts of the southwest and west late in the night and as this moves northeastwards it is likely to turn to snow in parts of the midlands, north and east.

Wednesday: Very cold in many places on Wednesday with spells of rain and sleet and some falls of snow in parts of the midlands east and north for a time in the morning

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 10:21PM

Looks like the colder air will arrive tomorrow afternoon.

John.Icy · 28-12-2020 10:24PM

Looks on a knife edge for myself in S.Kildare. Main band just slipping to my south on a few models. Need a shift north. Be nice to see my first flakes of the winter.

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 10:25PM

And a proper cold day on Wednesday. And supposedly a covering of snow here.

Nqp15hhu · 28-12-2020 10:28PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You may have a couple of localised streamer effects but it's mostly scattered showers rather than continuous.

The Euro4 shows a covering of snow here and continuous showers. We will see.

Looks like it could be cold enough for snow tomorrow night.

Gonzo · 28-12-2020 10:29PM

not expecting anything here in Meath from this, much too far north unless the front tracks north a good bit.

Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

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