Racing Uncertainties

16/12

Running P & L + 28.8pts

Invested 19pts

Returns:

Brelan D'as 2.30 (done e/w) places at 7/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts
Porto Ferro 7.35 (done e/w @ 40s) places at a fifth the odds returning 9pts

Total at play 19pts - returns 11.4pts

Loss for the day 7.6pts

Running invested total - 644pts

Total P & L + 21.2pts

3.15 Exeter Kingston Mimosa 25/1 e/w

Last two runs aint been so good. The first of those was after an absence, and the most recent was over 2 miles. A line can be drawn through those runs, as 2m is too short for him I believe. I think over 2 1/2 miles on soft/heavy ground at this level, that this fellah is definitely capable of making his presence felt here. Goes well at the course too, based on a good second over C & D in April of last year, although that was on better ground. Likes the course, likes the ground and trip = enough boxes ticked.

2.30 Hereford Scorpion Haze 22/1 e/w

3.05 Hereford Karakoram 20/1 e/w

3.50 Exeter Pour Une Raison 11/2 win

Won a shade cosily lto at the course - good amateur on top.

17/12

Running P & L + 21.2pts

Invested 22pts

returns - none

Total at play 22pts - returns 0pts

Today's loss 22pts

Running invested total - 666pts

Total P & L -0.8pts

^^^

Sacred Legacy 4.45 NR

I see El Scorpio in the 2.55 is generally best priced 15/2. I was worried (well, not worried) that he was a bit underpriced at 10s :P, based on his form figures, probable sp (14s I think) etc.. But at the kind of prices I generally put up, and how I think they may run, hunting 'value' is not exactly paramount (like I said before, will leave that to the professionals).

Red Allure in the 4.45 at Wolves is now 6/1, which is good, as she's a decent each way get your money back proposition. The fav in that race Arcavello is now a best-priced 13/8 (from 5/2). Other than the fact that it's a poor race that won't take much winning, I myself can't see why this Dods' horse is such a warm fav. He has however won off much higher marks before; but has recently being running over today's trip and grade, on a similar course in Newcastle, without doing much.

The few going today will hopefully give me a good run, but can't be overly optimistic of ending the poor run.

Might get a shout in with a couple at least.. hopefully

Deleted User wrote: »

18/12



Going each way on a few tomorrow

Uttoxeter
2.55 El Scorpio 10/1
Was staying on in 6th beaten 4 1/2 lengths at the course last month, over half a mile shorter on soft. Heavy going tomorrow, which may not exactly suit. Hard to know with him. A bit of a punt this 8yr old, but he's lightly raced.


Good luck

Was never travelling - could only manage fifth or sixth
Almost had high hopes when I saw the price contraction :pac:
Another one bites the dust. This poor run is really getting to me now

5.45 Wolves The Sedberghian 14/1 e/w

C & D winner, and looks a tad overpriced to me..

Deleted User wrote: »

5.45 Wolves The Sedberghian 14/1 e/w

C & D winner, and looks a tad overpriced to me..

Farkin laverrly

I know he only come placed in third; but at a whopping 20/1... Noice :pac:

Make that 22/1

Deleted User wrote: »

18/12

8.15 Murat Asset 14/1
Is a reasonable each way bet here. In his five previous races, he's never raced over a shorter distance than in his previous races. Am thinking that this staying distance trip could be up his alley. Is surely well handicapped if that's the plan

Good luck

2nd at 20s - a bit unlucky; found some trouble in home stretch - may not have won anyway though.

19/12

A poor run lately, but I'm undeterred. The inspiration, or 'The Muse' doesn't appear to be there atm. On a good day I can easily find 10 or more picks to throw up (hope I can get back to them days) , but the cards 'just don't suit me' currently, and I cannae get a good enough handle on them to either pick one; or to go beyond taking more than just a cursory glance at the majority of the races

Nonetheless I have picked a few out for tomorrow (today now, to be precise :pac:)

Unfortunately (or not - if they land, that is ) most of the few I've picked are 'punt' jobs...

Since writing the above I've decided to take a look at the "Quality" jumps meets: Ascot, and Haydock, and I feel I've picked out a few with 'proper' each way shouts, and not merely punt jobs. I've taken the going into account mainly with all of the picks from those 2 meets. Unfortunately a couple of the Haydock selections are in 2 place races, but no matter.

These are the picks and all each way - even the shortish ones at 11/4, or thereabouts -

Haydock
11.50 Le Ligerien 6/1
1.30 Ball D'arc 10/1
3.15 Queenofhearts 11/4, No Hiding Place 6/1, Goodbye Dancer 7/1
Only 3 places here, but I'm very confident that all of these are capable of a bold showing, and wouldn't be surprised if they filled the top three spots.

Ascot
1.50 Saint Sonnet 11/2, Not Another Muddle 8/1
3.35 5 places on offer here, so I've gone with 5, all of whom I believe have a good chance in the feature.
Not So Sleepy 18/1, Botox Has 20/1, Arrivederci 13/2, Cormier 40/1, Lightly Squeeze 12/1

And the ones; a lot of which are the proverbial punts that I've selected earlier:

Lingfield
2.35 Soghan 11/2
3.10 Bo Taifan 66/1, Birkie Queen 33/1 - both are punts
3.40 Abel Tasman 11/4

Wolverhampton
4.00 Bankawi 40/1 - punt
4.30 Lili Wen Fach 25/1 - yet another punt

Gluck if ye're having a go I think I've got a fair few decent selections in the NH races, and hope to make a profit

Ball D'arc pulled up

Muck so far.. Nothing

And in the 4 o'c at Wolves a 'punt' clicks (e/w that is) with Bankawi coming 2nd at 40s. A very good day all things considered, as just an hour ago a washout was on the cards; or at least it seemed that way, even tho I had 5 what I thought were pretty good picks to come in the 3.35.

Anyway, thread deffo in profit for day, so I'm more than happy with that.. Better finishing with a win than starting I reckon