Orange Warning for Wind/Coastal Flooding for Cork

Had a text last night from cork city council about Tier 3 flood alert. First time I've heard them use tiers for the flood alerts... They are predicting "it could be similar to the event on October 20th last"

Cork airport TAF EICK shows SE winds picking up after 9pm swinging around to the south at 1am gusting up to 50 knots.
Fair to say a nasty night along the South coast with high tides.

BECMG 1521/1523 15025G35KT -RA BECMG 1523/1601 19028G38KT TEMPO 1523/1602 3000 RA BKN007 TEMPO 1601/1606 20030G50KT -SHRA BECMG 1608/1610 21015G25KT TEMPO 1610/1612 -SHRA FEW018CB

It looks some monster on the 12z gfs.
It should have been named either way it will do damage along the south coast. As I said previously Cork be aware for serious floods and wind damage

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Just checked latest satellite!
It's a monster!!

Wind gusts look to top out around 90kmh for most affected areas. Always time for a surprise though.

Storm 10 wrote: »

I can never understand these warnings that stop at another County border, I know its hard to decide where the worst will be, just looking at the Clare warning which ends in Galway Bay.

You have to consider that all of Clare may not be affected by the worst conditions, they can't draw a line through a county so the border is the natural outline of the area under the warning. If its only south Clare that experiences the conditions there is no point extending the warning into Galway. Anyway that's a seperate thread.
Nice shape on the satellite, Cork flooding looks like the biggest issue, in my opinion.

On the projected track and intensity, Galway Bay might have a slight overtopping in the afternoon or evening high tide but fortunately there will only be a few hours of relatively moderate westerly winds starting around mid-day and no sustained fetch, so I can see why they haven't included Galway in either wind or coastal flooding alerts. Not to say it won't be marginally severe in a few places in Connacht but the low is losing steam after it passes the Shannon estuary.

The impacts for Connacht would look like this -- overnight winds moderate southeast to east, backing by late overnight to daybreak towards a northeast wind (except staying southeast in east Galway and Roscommon), for a time winds may reduce in speed with a slacker gradient as the low passes through south Mayo and or west Sligo back into the Donegal Bay area, then a moderate northwest further backing to westerly as the low moves further north. For Mace Head I would expect peak gusts around 90 km/hr in that afternoon westerly phase, for Belmullet northwest 50-70 km/hr, so not a very potent storm for that region. Total rainfalls could be 20-30 mm so some minor flood potential (in Connacht, could see 25-40 mm over some parts of the inland south and southeast).

Will predict that the max gusts from the storm on land will be around 70 knots for Roches Point, 65 for Sherkin, and 60 for Valentia, Shannon. Inland stations may peak around 55 knots, similar to coastal Wicklow-Dublin (55-60).

You can almost double those for km/hr (double and reduce by 15%).

Peak winds likely for the south coast around 0300h-0600h. For south Clare, north Limerick, Tipps, peak winds closer to 0600-0900h. Further north because the storm will be weakening, peak winds will set in at those same times and remain steady state longer (although with lower peak gusts).

Wind picking up here in Cork already
Rough night ahead!

00Z aviation chart, based on Met Éireann's output.

Chance of thunderstorms in the shaded area.

Just checking ship reports but there are missing buoys in best locations, no ships over 35 knots but worst zones being avoided probably. Current location appears to be 49.5N 12W. On the met.ie radar page, the low centre is off the map grid but not off the screen, would locate it left edge of your screen and level with the bottom row of type about the radar display. Heading north-northeast and centre will be very close to Valentia around 0200h.

Intensity has already peaked from the look of the satellite imagery, but that won't be much of a factor in coastal flooding potential as that depends on fetch conditions. My 70 knots at Roches Point probably over estimated a bit, let's say 65 more likely.

The low centre will be moving at around 35 knots, so any weather will be quick to pass through.

Will estimate max gust 62 knots at Roches or Sherkin

55 knots Cork Airport