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Orange Warning for Wind/Coastal Flooding for Cork

Storm 10

Maybe this should be updated there could be more Counties added, Mods change the colour please

http://archive.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

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SleetAndSnow

Had a text last night from cork city council about Tier 3 flood alert. First time I've heard them use tiers for the flood alerts... They are predicting "it could be similar to the event on October 20th last"

dmc17

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Had a text last night from cork city council about Tier 3 flood alert. First time I've heard them use tiers for the flood alerts... They are predicting "it could be similar to the event on October 20th last"

Tides are fairly high at the minute, so that will be a worry. Around 6pm this evening and maybe more so the morning one at 6:30am.

Storm 10

I can never understand these warnings that stop at another County border, I know its hard to decide where the worst will be, just looking at the Clare warning which ends in Galway Bay.

Cluedo Monopoly

Yep tides are certainly high but the wind direction tonight is East or SE so I wouldn't expect flooding in Galway.

Storm 10

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Yep tides are certainly high but the wind direction tonight is East or SE so I wouldn't expect flooding in Galway.

Tomorrow morning around 6am could be a problem as the winds veer South to South West, the tide last night at the docks was just inches below the quay.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I have updated thread title. Met E orange warning is for coastal flooding.

Cluedo Monopoly

Storm 10 wrote: »

Tomorrow morning around 6am could be a problem as the winds veer South to South West, the tide last night at the docks was just inches below the quay.

Where are you seeing that for Galway? I still see SE at 6am.

Storm 10

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Where are you seeing that for Galway? I still see SE at 6am.

This is covering the yellow warning in Clare so that would include the Bay, it will be interesting to see if the warnings go further

Wednesday will start wet and very windy. Strong to near gale force and gusty
southeasterly winds will veer south to southwesterly during the morning and
gradually ease during the afternoon. It will remain mostly cloudy with scattered
heavy showers merging to longer spells of rain at times. Highest temperatures of
8 to 11 degrees.

This is what MT is giving

The strong winds will gradually abate but not until after an interval of strong westerly winds around Galway Bay,

Oscar Bravo

Cork airport TAF EICK shows SE winds picking up after 9pm swinging around to the south at 1am gusting up to 50 knots.
Fair to say a nasty night along the South coast with high tides.

BECMG 1521/1523 15025G35KT -RA BECMG 1523/1601 19028G38KT TEMPO 1523/1602 3000 RA BKN007 TEMPO 1601/1606 20030G50KT -SHRA BECMG 1608/1610 21015G25KT TEMPO 1610/1612 -SHRA FEW018CB

mickger844posts

Double checked the Warnings on Met.ie and it clearly states Status Orange, Wind Warning Cork. So going by their own criteria it should be named.
Personally i don't think it warrants a name but thats the criteria they use.
Also if its an Orange Warning for Coastal Flooding it should be a marine warning only.

JanuarySnowstor

It looks some monster on the 12z gfs.
It should have been named either way it will do damage along the south coast. As I said previously Cork be aware for serious floods and wind damage

JanuarySnowstor

Just checked latest satellite!
It's a monster!!

CirrusBusiness

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Just checked latest satellite!
It's a monster!!

Wind gusts look to top out around 90kmh for most affected areas. Always time for a surprise though.

pad199207

Quite the looker! Looks can be deceiving though.

Storm 10

If it stays on its current track it would head up from the South along the West Coast

Graces7

Storm 10 wrote: »

If it stays on its current track it would head up from the South along the West Coast

Indeed! And here was I thinking... ah well ...stay safe; it looks very nasty

West Mayo offshore

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

I can never understand these warnings that stop at another County border, I know its hard to decide where the worst will be, just looking at the Clare warning which ends in Galway Bay.

You have to consider that all of Clare may not be affected by the worst conditions, they can't draw a line through a county so the border is the natural outline of the area under the warning. If its only south Clare that experiences the conditions there is no point extending the warning into Galway. Anyway that's a seperate thread.
Nice shape on the satellite, Cork flooding looks like the biggest issue, in my opinion.

Bailey43

Why is this storm not named ?

M.T. Cranium

On the projected track and intensity, Galway Bay might have a slight overtopping in the afternoon or evening high tide but fortunately there will only be a few hours of relatively moderate westerly winds starting around mid-day and no sustained fetch, so I can see why they haven't included Galway in either wind or coastal flooding alerts. Not to say it won't be marginally severe in a few places in Connacht but the low is losing steam after it passes the Shannon estuary.

The impacts for Connacht would look like this -- overnight winds moderate southeast to east, backing by late overnight to daybreak towards a northeast wind (except staying southeast in east Galway and Roscommon), for a time winds may reduce in speed with a slacker gradient as the low passes through south Mayo and or west Sligo back into the Donegal Bay area, then a moderate northwest further backing to westerly as the low moves further north. For Mace Head I would expect peak gusts around 90 km/hr in that afternoon westerly phase, for Belmullet northwest 50-70 km/hr, so not a very potent storm for that region. Total rainfalls could be 20-30 mm so some minor flood potential (in Connacht, could see 25-40 mm over some parts of the inland south and southeast).

Will predict that the max gusts from the storm on land will be around 70 knots for Roches Point, 65 for Sherkin, and 60 for Valentia, Shannon. Inland stations may peak around 55 knots, similar to coastal Wicklow-Dublin (55-60).

You can almost double those for km/hr (double and reduce by 15%).

Peak winds likely for the south coast around 0300h-0600h. For south Clare, north Limerick, Tipps, peak winds closer to 0600-0900h. Further north because the storm will be weakening, peak winds will set in at those same times and remain steady state longer (although with lower peak gusts).

M.T. Cranium

Bailey43 wrote: »

Why is this storm not named ?

Bella !!

(would be her name, not sure if there's any policy on how close to storm impact a name can be given out, they likely wouldn't go with it much later than 2100h).

(seems deserving of a name given the orange level warning status, have seen names on weaker storms in the past, Lorenzo for example)

JanuarySnowstor

Wind picking up here in Cork already
Rough night ahead!

SleetAndSnow

Cork Airport TAF forecasting max gusts of 50kts at around 1am - 6am. City centre could have some gusts since the winds are South easterly and could rush up the river along with the tidal surge. Hopefully the businesses have prepared, about 20 texts have been sent out by CCC about it so if they haven't its their own fault!

Gaoth Laidir

00Z aviation chart, based on Met Éireann's output.

Chance of thunderstorms in the shaded area.

Meteorite58

Looks weaker than earlier runs today , ECM has eased off on the winds, maybe touching around 100 km/h in a few places along the coasts and up the SE I reckon , is showing less rainfall also than earlier also.

AROME is probably a good average from the Hi Res models, most of Kerry and Clare staying out of the strong winds on the latest runs.

Small system , fills rapidly.

M.T. Cranium

Just checking ship reports but there are missing buoys in best locations, no ships over 35 knots but worst zones being avoided probably. Current location appears to be 49.5N 12W. On the met.ie radar page, the low centre is off the map grid but not off the screen, would locate it left edge of your screen and level with the bottom row of type about the radar display. Heading north-northeast and centre will be very close to Valentia around 0200h.

Intensity has already peaked from the look of the satellite imagery, but that won't be much of a factor in coastal flooding potential as that depends on fetch conditions. My 70 knots at Roches Point probably over estimated a bit, let's say 65 more likely.

Meteorite58

Gaoth Laidir

The low centre will be moving at around 35 knots, so any weather will be quick to pass through.

Gaoth Laidir

Met Éireann aviation warnings.

EIME=Casement | EICK=Cork | EINN=Shannon | EIDW=Dublin

EIME AD WRNG 01 VALID 160300/161400 WIND SFC SE 20-25KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1604/1606 S 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST=

EICK AD WRNG 01 VALID 152200/160800 WIND SFC SE 25-30KT MAX 40-45 BECMG 1523/1601 S 25-30KT MAX 45-50 FCST=

EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 160100/160700 WIND SFC SE 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST=

EISN PR WRNG 02 VALID 160000/160600 EISN SURFACE PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE VALUES 0972 HPA AND 0989 HPA IN SHANNON FIR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD S of N51, E of W012 & W of W010 FCST=

EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 160100/160500 WIND SFC SE 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST=

ninebeanrows

Will estimate max gust 62 knots at Roches or Sherkin

55 knots Cork Airport

Little snowy old me

Im going for a maximum gust of 54 knots at Roches Point. This is a standard December event regarding wind speeds.