Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:38PM

Arghus wrote: »

Somebody else has already done a study, I've previously mentioned it:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-announces-results-of%C2%A0seroprevalence-study.html

Over 1100 respondents from two different areas of the country, one with high reported incidence, one with low.

That study has been shown to be pretty worthless.

ElJeffe · 12-12-2020 11:39PM

rodders999 wrote: »

Buddy of mine is on a work night out tonight so the group Snapchat is on fire. If what’s going on in the pub he’s currently in (it’s like covid never happened) is being replicated across the country then January is going to be incredibly grim.

Seen a few pictures from that Wetherspoons in Dun Laoighaire last night absolutely rammed.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 11:39PM

polesheep wrote: »

That study has been shown to be pretty worthless.

Please explain.

Your argument is silly.

Any claim presented without evidence = plausible, we just don't know.

Results of real world study = worthless.

ElJeffe · 12-12-2020 11:44PM

polesheep wrote: »

I don't make things up. I'm here for Covid and I'll be gone soon. I think that comment is more a reflection on you.

You made up a post earlier. "Likely" in your own mind isn't evidence. You have no evidence or source that most younger people have had the virus. It's complete guess work and hear say.

Widdensushi · 12-12-2020 11:51PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What?

18-24 year olds are either asymptotic or not seriously I’ll.

Hospitals would never be overran with cases in that age group

How is this still been debated

Their family and friends not in the age group would have gotten it

Arghus · 12-12-2020 11:54PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What?

18-24 year olds are either asymptotic or not seriously I’ll.

Hospitals would never be overran with cases in that age group

How is this still been debated

You're somehow missing his point entirely. To the extent where I wonder if it's deliberate. He is not claiming that Covid makes young people gravely ill.

The point he's making is that if you had 70% of 19-24 year olds getting infected with Covid you would have also seen a high incidence outside of that age group because they don't exclusively mix entirely with people in their exact age group, so you would have seen a much higher incidence of older people who would require hospitalisations - as a result of all those masses of young people catching a highly infectious virus and spreading it around.

The reason that didn't happen is because that didn't happen.

Wolf359f · 13-12-2020 12:18AM

Arghus wrote: »

You're somehow missing his point entirely. To the extent where I wonder if it's deliberate. He is not claiming that Covid makes young people gravely ill.

The point he's making is that if you had 70% of 19-24 year olds getting infected with Covid you would have also seen a high incidence outside of that age group because they don't exclusively mix entirely with people in their exact age group, so you would have seen a much higher incidence of older people who would require hospitalisations - as a result of all those masses of young people catching a highly infectious virus and spreading it around.

The reason that didn't happen is because that didn't happen.

You would also have the close contacts of a confirmed case positivity rate being 70% in 19-24 year olds, which by Christ would raise a massive red flag!

charlie14 · 13-12-2020 12:42AM

polesheep wrote: »

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be. The fact is, we are not seeing sufficient science on this. Yes, there may be studies taking place that we will hear about later, but to my mind we are not seeing enough exploration right now. I was speaking with an immunologist just ten minutes ago and where you used the word 'worthless' he said, "well, we just don't know." Unless we investigate we can't know. You seem to think that there are just two ways to see things, I find that way of thinking both frustrating and limiting.

If 18-24 year olds made up 70% of the population all of them would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.

From CSO data 5 years ago in the 13-18 year group, (the 18- 23 year group now), would number around 331,000. Just 7% of the population.
A long way of the number required.

72sheep · 13-12-2020 06:35AM

Kay Burley has had a front row seat watching those setting the Covid agenda and is clearly not scared by Covid in any way at all. She is not from a privileged background and so her actions cannot be just dismissed as class arrogance. Do we think then it is because Kay is stupid (thicker than us posters!) or is she knowingly negligent (i.e. borderline evil)?

(BTW” Obviously her “I am an idiot” confession relates only to being caught. If it was because she now recognized the imminent danger posed she would not be heading to the local airport to go on holliers.)

harr · 13-12-2020 09:22AM

With what I seen from various friends on social media last night people haven’t learned any lessons.
Christmas parties in full swing with little or no social distancing as the night went on. Meals finished by 8 and large groups allowed continue drinking till early hours.
A lot of the same people going to be heading home at Christmas and mixing with family groups.

I think people have the mindset that the vaccine has suddenly changed things when in reality we are probably looking at lockdowns for another 6 months.
January is going be a nightmare for case numbers.

AutoTuning · 13-12-2020 09:24AM

People are like that though. It's just part of human behaviour. We know something's dangerous, so we probe it a bit and see what happens. If nothing happens, we often still keep probing. Or, we'll become accustomed to a dangerous situation and become desensitised to it and just do the dangerous thing anyway.

Journalists, media types, politicians and so on are often by nature risk takers and not risk averse at all. Otherwise, they wouldn't put their neck on the line to chase stories, go to war zones, stand in the middle of protests, ask brazen questions to powerful individuals, go on stage, go on TV, stand for election etc etc etc.

Those behaviours are positive in some scenarios, negative in others. Right now, those characteristics are probably going to walk a lot of people into trouble.

If you've ever encountered anything to do with health and safety, you'll see how hard it is to get people to cop on.

zerosugarbuzz · 13-12-2020 09:36AM

AutoTuning wrote: »

People are like that though. It's just part of human behaviour. We know something's dangerous, so we probe it a bit and see what happens. If nothing happens, we often still keep probing. Or, we'll become accustomed to a dangerous situation and become desensitised to it and just do the dangerous thing anyway.

Journalists, media types, politicians and so on are often by nature risk takers and not risk averse at all. Otherwise, they wouldn't put their neck on the line to chase stories, go to war zones, stand in the middle of protests, ask brazen questions to powerful individuals, go on stage, go on TV, stand for election etc etc etc.

Those behaviours are positive in some scenarios, negative in others. Right now, those characteristics are probably going to walk a lot of people into trouble.

If you've ever encountered anything to do with health and safety, you'll see how hard it is to get people to cop on.

Pray tell where are those elusive journalists you speak of that display such characteristics? Cos they certainly ain’t in Ireland 😂

Zebra3 · 13-12-2020 09:39AM

Anyone seeing any breaches of the regulations, please contact Tramore garda station.

plodder · 13-12-2020 10:39AM

I presume this has already been pointed out:

Two Dublin bars suspend €9 ‘substantial meal’ to stop food waste

All perfectly legal it seems. I guess it shows the futility of trying to control people's behaviour with laws. I think it hastens the day when these places get shutdown again in January though.

jackboy · 13-12-2020 11:02AM

plodder wrote: »

I presume this has already been pointed out:

Two Dublin bars suspend €9 ‘substantial meal’ to stop food waste

All perfectly legal it seems. I guess it shows the futility of trying to control people's behaviour with laws. I think it hastens the day when these places get shutdown again in January though.

In fairness the 9 euro meal is a laughable rule which has no benefit for controlling the virus. Such rules decrease the public’s respect for all the rules.

is_that_so · 13-12-2020 11:06AM

jackboy wrote: »

In fairness the 9 euro meal is a laughable rule which has no benefit for controlling the virus. Such rules decrease the public’s respect for all the rules.

Its aim is political and an economic counterbalance. On that front it's served a purpose of sorts and it's temporary. Those exploiting it are more likely to be rule breakers anyway.

Chris_5339762 · 13-12-2020 11:24AM

jackboy wrote: »

In fairness the 9 euro meal is a laughable rule which has no benefit for controlling the virus. Such rules decrease the public’s respect for all the rules.

It is a bit silly really, but it does stop a pub crawl.

MerlinSouthDub · 13-12-2020 11:32AM

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-13/germany-to-enter-hard-lockdown-on-wednesday-as-infections-swell

Germany into lockdown. Non essential retail closed. Children encouraged not to go to the school. Curfews in certain areas.

wadacrack · 13-12-2020 11:44AM

Germany now struggling.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1338070240580816896

harr · 13-12-2020 12:05PM

Anyone know why the vaccine is yet to be approved in Europe when other countries have already started vaccine programs ?
Well into December now and I can’t imagine any meaningful rollout happening before February at this stage.
Some European countries getting swamped by covid in the last few weeks

Stheno · 13-12-2020 12:18PM

harr wrote: »

Anyone know why the vaccine is yet to be approved in Europe when other countries have already started vaccine programs ?
Well into December now and I can’t imagine any meaningful rollout happening before February at this stage.
Some European countries getting swamped by covid in the last few weeks

Think the approvals granted are all emergency, I think the European approval is broader

jackboy · 13-12-2020 12:19PM

harr wrote: »

Anyone know why the vaccine is yet to be approved in Europe when other countries have already started vaccine programs ?
Well into December now and I can’t imagine any meaningful rollout happening before February at this stage.
Some European countries getting swamped by covid in the last few weeks

Hopefully because they are being thorough and not because they are finding issues with the data.

polesheep · 13-12-2020 12:35PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If 18-24 year olds made up 70% of the population all of them would need to be immune to achieve herd immunity.

From CSO data 5 years ago in the 13-18 year group, (the 18- 23 year group now), would number around 331,000. Just 7% of the population.
A long way of the number required.

I referred to the particular cohort, not the entire population.

plodder · 13-12-2020 12:37PM

jackboy wrote: »

In fairness the 9 euro meal is a laughable rule which has no benefit for controlling the virus. Such rules decrease the public’s respect for all the rules.

Possibly. Though I can understand the intent behind it. Even the time limit rule seems understandable on paper. But, people seem to be going from one place to the next, whereas if they stayed in the same place all night, it would be less risky.

I think you can't micro-manage people like that. Pubs/restaurants are going to be just open or closed. That seems to be the only level of control in that area.

polesheep · 13-12-2020 12:38PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

You made up a post earlier. "Likely" in your own mind isn't evidence. You have no evidence or source that most younger people have had the virus. It's complete guess work and hear say.

Every post is 'made up'. I didn't present anything as a fact, I gave an opinion. Some on here would argue with their own shadow.

polesheep · 13-12-2020 12:40PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

The general population will do as they always have done and do as they are told.

Source?

See how silly it is?

is_that_so · 13-12-2020 12:51PM

harr wrote: »

Anyone know why the vaccine is yet to be approved in Europe when other countries have already started vaccine programs ?
Well into December now and I can’t imagine any meaningful rollout happening before February at this stage.
Some European countries getting swamped by covid in the last few weeks

There are five countries. Rollout will happen almost instantly, they have the stocks and early January was always the EU plan. We'll see our plan this coming week and the EMA will decide by Dec 29 at the latest, on the vaccine, with Moderna to follow in early January.

Jim_Hodge · 13-12-2020 01:28PM

polesheep wrote: »

Every post is 'made up'. I didn't present anything as a fact, I gave an opinion. Some on here would argue with their own shadow.

:rolleyes: Pot meet kettle .

Stheno · 13-12-2020 01:32PM

plodder wrote: »

I presume this has already been pointed out:

Two Dublin bars suspend €9 ‘substantial meal’ to stop food waste

All perfectly legal it seems. I guess it shows the futility of trying to control people's behaviour with laws. I think it hastens the day when these places get shutdown again in January though.

The police have told both venues they must serve food

Ger Roe · 13-12-2020 01:44PM

jackboy wrote: »

In fairness the 9 euro meal is a laughable rule which has no benefit for controlling the virus. Such rules decrease the public’s respect for all the rules.

It is a restriction, designed to keep you at your table for longer and to drink less alcohol in the limited time that you are supposed to have available to you - all designed to limit the spread of the virus, by limiting the potential for an increased amount of contacts per person.

It's just that simple. The only simpler alternative, or maybe the easiest to understand and with less scope for 'clever' workarounds, would be to go back to total closure.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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