COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Kerry25x · 08-12-2020 03:55PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

From what I've read, all the currently approved vaccines or soon to be approved vaccines won't produce enough doses in 2021 to cover the world population. Now rich countries are probably buying up more than their fair share. But there's a chance this takes 18 months to roll out.

I imagine a decent percentage will refuse it anyway so they wouldn't cover the whole world in 2021 even if they could. Hopefully there will be enough to cover most who want it.

cgc5483 · 08-12-2020 03:55PM

hmmm wrote: »

The details are not correct. The application to the EU & FDA is also for the equivalent of a conditional emergency authorisation, it's not for general release.

There was a lady interviewed on US TV, I think she was an ex-FDA commissioner, explaining the general difference between the UK & MHRA processes. The MHRA get the data from the companies, along with the company model interpreting the result, and audits the processes used to generate the model. The FDA gets the data, and regenerates the models using its own processes. I'm not qualified to say which is better, but the latter approach sounds much more time-consuming. I don't know how the EMA does it.

Either way it can be seen as a positive as different regulators take different approaches to reviewing the data, and it will be interesting to see if they come to the same result.

I think you are confusing the regulatory procedures a little and they are confusing because they are not necessary completely comparable. The EMA is a conditional marketing authorisation but not correct to suggest it will be for general release. There are more details on the EMA website (not connecting for me at the moment to link) what this means.

Gael23 · 08-12-2020 03:56PM

titan18 wrote: »

If anyone wants to be prioritised, eat and drink a feckload over Christmas and get that bmi up

Those conditions don’t change your group though do they?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 08-12-2020 03:57PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Those conditions don’t change your group though do they?

BMI over 40 is considered to be a medical condition at high risk of the disease.

Sconsey · 08-12-2020 03:57PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

I did find it surprising that adults 65-69 are ranked higher than people in this list.

Same, I just can't understand why people who are defined as 'very high risk' by the HSE are lower priority than people who are not even in the 'high risk' category.

Makes no sense, they are telling people to cocoon, maybe live in a bubble but at the same time they are lower priority that people regarded at lower risk.

Gael23 · 08-12-2020 03:59PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

BMI over 40 is considered to be a medical condition at high risk of the disease.

I have Crohn’s disease which I think is not there at all

Irish Stones · 08-12-2020 04:00PM

noserider wrote: »

First person vaccinated in N Ireland this morning at 6:30 am.

Yesterday news was that the first European person to take the vaccine were a 42-yo Chinese with Italian citizenship and his wife who got the Sinovac vaccine back in August, and 4 months later they claim they are still fine.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 08-12-2020 04:02PM

Gael23 wrote: »

I have Crohn’s disease which I think is not there at all

What meds are you on? Dont tell me but check yourself.

Sometimes crohns sufferers are on meds that have an immunosuppression effect which is on the list.

Irish Stones · 08-12-2020 04:08PM

Indestructable wrote: »

Does anybody know how the UK are tracking who has received the vaccine? Is it linked to their PPS equivalent or a register or something else?

Mine is going to sound like a stupid question, but don't UK citizens have a name and a VAT Code/Health number that identifies that citizen as unique, and doesn't UK HSE have a database?
I mean, they know who you are, they know whether you have been given a vaccine in the past or if you had a swab test during this pandemic.

Don't they?

odyssey06 · 08-12-2020 04:09PM

Irish Stones wrote: »

Yesterday news was that the first European person to take the vaccine were a 42-yo Chinese with Italian citizenship and his wife who got the Sinovac vaccine back in August, and 4 months later they claim they are still fine.

A 90-year-old grandmother became the world’s first person to receive a fully-tested COVID-19 shot on Tuesday... Russia and China have both already started giving domestically produced vaccine candidates to their populations, though before final safety and efficacy trials have been completed.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-vaccine/in-covid-19-milestone-for-west-britain-starts-mass-vaccination-idUSKBN28I01T

Sconsey · 08-12-2020 04:09PM

I really had high hopes for the government on the vaccine rollout. But the more I look at that list the more my expectations fade. Apart from the quetionable sequence of some of the groups, and the omissions of other groups altogether the 'Key Workers' one is really concerning.

They have published the list without defining the key workers, stupid, stupid, stupid. Can you imagine the lobbying, shouting, horse-trading that is now going to kick off as every interest group in the country tries to claim key worker status. I think it is going to be a sh1t-show, really dissapointed.

Nijmegen · 08-12-2020 04:14PM

Sconsey wrote: »

I really had high hopes for the government on the vaccine rollout. But the more I look at that list the more my expectations fade. Apart from the quetionable sequence of some of the groups, and the omissions of other groups altogether the 'Key Workers' one is really concerning.

They have published the list without defining the key workers, stupid, stupid, stupid. Can you imagine the lobbying, shouting, horse-trading that is now going to kick off as every interest group in the country tries to claim key worker status. I think it is going to be a sh1t-show, really dissapointed.

There's no universe in which the rollout of a vaccine isn't going to involve horse trading, lobbying and shouting whether they announce a comprehensive list or not. What I'd be interested to see is the numbers of people in the more general groups and if they'll have some form of a lottery for people in the broader categories.

is_that_so · 08-12-2020 04:16PM

El Pais article , in English and with graphics, making the case for the use of antigen tests.

Antigen testing is changing the war against Covid-19. In Europe and the US, it is an increasingly popular strategy, now accounting for 30% of all testing in Spain when it was barely part of the equation until September.

https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-12-08/isolate-fast-and-curtail-infection-how-antigen-tests-are-changing-the-face-of-the-pandemic.html

is_that_so · 08-12-2020 04:19PM

Sconsey wrote: »

I really had high hopes for the government on the vaccine rollout. But the more I look at that list the more my expectations fade. Apart from the quetionable sequence of some of the groups, and the omissions of other groups altogether the 'Key Workers' one is really concerning.

They have published the list without defining the key workers, stupid, stupid, stupid. Can you imagine the lobbying, shouting, horse-trading that is now going to kick off as every interest group in the country tries to claim key worker status. I think it is going to be a sh1t-show, really dissapointed.

I believe key workers include meat plants and other production facilities. These have been mentioned as part of the plan but are not explicitly included.

hmmm · 08-12-2020 04:21PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

There's no universe in which the rollout of a vaccine isn't going to involve horse trading, lobbying and shouting whether they announce a comprehensive list or not. What I'd be interested to see is the numbers of people in the more general groups and if they'll have some form of a lottery for people in the broader categories.

Hopefully by the time we get down to those later groups we'll be "swimming in vaccine" as funnydoggy put it on here. The supplies are limited now, but manufacturing should ramp up quickly. We could do with Astra Zeneca and/or J&J producing good results because they should have lots pre-manufactured, and we've Novavax, Sanofi and Curevac not too far away.

Gael23 · 08-12-2020 04:21PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

What meds are you on? Dont tell me but check yourself.

Sometimes crohns sufferers are on meds that have an immunosuppression effect which is on the list.

Yes I’m on immunosuppressant drugs but someone 18-64 on those meds are 7th on the list. Having been told to isolate as much as possible I expected to be a bit higher that’s all

Sconsey · 08-12-2020 04:26PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I believe key workers include meat plants and other production facilities. These have been mentioned as part of the plan but are not explicitly included.

That's one of the things that worries me, nothing specifically included or excluded, which will lead to a mess....will the transport workers be included? their union is probably working on it right now...will council workers be included? their reps are probably planning arguments to be included...etc. etc. You could make an argument that we are all key workers. They haven't even shown the criteria for key worker status, that will be determined by who shouts loudest.

Why they could not just take the advice of the WHO and model based on their advice I will never know.

irishgeo · 08-12-2020 04:30PM

It's just a rough layout of the vaccine groups. I believe the details are to be published on Friday.

08-12-2020 04:30PM

Sconsey wrote: »

That's one of the things that worries me, nothing specifically included or excluded, which will lead to a mess....will the transport workers be included? their union is probably working on it right now...will council workers be included? their reps are probably planning arguments to be included...etc. etc. You could make an argument that we are all key workers. They haven't even shown the criteria for key worker status, that will be determined by who shouts loudest.

Why they could not just take the advice of the WHO and model based on their advice I will never know.

Category 6 key workers specifically calls out "Providing services essential to the vaccination programme". 10 inclusde "orkers in the food supply system, public and commercial transport and other vital services".

In my view people in category 10 will be broadly similar to those groups permitted to travel for work in Lockdown 1

odyssey06 · 08-12-2020 04:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Category 6 key workers specifically calls out "Providing services essential to the vaccination programme". 10 inclusde "orkers in the food supply system, public and commercial transport and other vital services".
In my view people in category 10 will be broadly similar to those groups permitted to travel for work in Lockdown 1

I think it will be more limited that that, as Category 10 has extra qualifier "unable to work without physical distancing".
So it would exclude people permitted to travel as they couldn't WFH but who could distance in their workplace e.g. bank workers keeping infrastructure running.

is_that_so · 08-12-2020 04:44PM

Sconsey wrote: »

That's one of the things that worries me, nothing specifically included or excluded, which will lead to a mess....will the transport workers be included? their union is probably working on it right now...will council workers be included? their reps are probably planning arguments to be included...etc. etc. You could make an argument that we are all key workers. They haven't even shown the criteria for key worker status, that will be determined by who shouts loudest.

Why they could not just take the advice of the WHO and model based on their advice I will never know.

I'd consider it a good thing if people are clamouring to get it, it means we should reach the desired target but it will be very much while stocks last for a good few months that will dictate priorities.

Sconsey · 08-12-2020 04:48PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Category 6 key workers specifically calls out "Providing services essential to the vaccination programme". 10 inclusde "orkers in the food supply system, public and commercial transport and other vital services".

In my view people in category 10 will be broadly similar to those groups permitted to travel for work in Lockdown 1

Other vital service....are retail vital? maybe food retail is. Are the guys out resurfacing roads vital? they could probably make a case. Is the guy delivering home heating oil vital? you could say he is yeah. Meanwhile thousands of very high risk people are still told to isoalte and wait.

Not having a go at you, just pointintg out that I think they have not thought this through sufficiently.

Supercell · 08-12-2020 04:51PM

Interesting order in the vaccination list - https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/

This is the provisional order in which people in Ireland will be vaccinated against COVID-19.

1 People aged 65 years and older who are residents of long-term care facilities (likely to include all staff and residents on site)
2 Frontline healthcare workers
3 People aged 70 and older
4 Other healthcare workers not in direct patient contact
5 People aged 65-69
6 Key workers
7 People aged 18-64 with certain medical conditions
8 Residents of long-term care facilities aged 18-64
9 People aged 18-64 living or working in crowded settings
10 Key workers in essential jobs who cannot avoid a high risk of exposure
11 People working in education sector
12 People aged 55-64
13 Other workers in occupations important to the functioning of society
14 Other people aged 18-54
15 People aged under 18 and pregnant women

One could argue 13 includes all taxpayers for example, seems overly complicated, have to say I think the UK approach is more simple and dare i say it, sensible?

marno21 · 08-12-2020 04:54PM

hmmm wrote: »

Hopefully by the time we get down to those later groups we'll be "swimming in vaccine" as funnydoggy put it on here. The supplies are limited now, but manufacturing should ramp up quickly. We could do with Astra Zeneca and/or J&J producing good results because they should have lots pre-manufactured, and we've Novavax, Sanofi and Curevac not too far away.

I'd be confident that AstraZeneca, Novavax and J&J will be on the table by the end of Q1 2021 at the absolute latest. Should that be the case, with a large swathe of the vulnerable vaccinated and there being a glut of vaccine by then, especially useful if J&J is a single dose vaccine for logistical reasons, it should be game, set & match by Q2 2021.

There will be speed bumps and set backs along the way, but the progress of the vaccination effort to date has been breathtaking. Most experts would have dismissed the timeline I've provided above as the stuff of fairytales just a few months ago.

is_that_so · 08-12-2020 04:54PM

Supercell wrote: »

Interesting order in the vaccination list - https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/39038-provisional-vaccine-allocation-groups/

One could argue 13 includes all taxpayers for example, seems overly complicated, have to say I think the UK approach is more simple and dare i say it, sensible?

Ours shows a recognition of the question of initially limited vaccine supplies. More categories means more management of that. The UK are "game changing" again and want to do it quickly.

Hmmzis · 08-12-2020 05:10PM

Someone posted this in the Reddit thread on the FDA briefing documents (about the Pfizer/BNT vaccine):

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eot7UV5W8AIas8N?format=png&name=900x900

That is one impressive vaccine, the infection curve gets crushed after about 10-14 after the 1st dose

Martina1991 · 08-12-2020 05:18PM

is_that_so wrote: »

El Pais article , in English and with graphics, making the case for the use of antigen tests.

The pilot program of using antigen testing in Liverpool had very poor results. These antigen tests will miss a large proportion of cases.

https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1335646455894257667?s=20

hmmm · 08-12-2020 05:26PM

Oxford/Astra Zeneca data is out.
https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620326611.pdf

Based on editor review they've done some more analysis on the low dose/standard dose regime (including making sure the age groups were aligned vs placebo), and the 90% still stands. Two standard doses about 60%.

Hmmzis · 08-12-2020 05:26PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

The pilot program of using antigen testing in Liverpool had very poor results. These antigen tests will miss a large proportion of cases.

https://twitter.com/bmj_latest/status/1335646455894257667?s=20

That's indeed a poor result, very disappointing. Hopefully the sensitivity can be improved, rapid tests would be a massive help.

brisan · 08-12-2020 05:29PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Today starts the biggest medical trial in world history.

In what will be billed as a political success story in photocalls by politicians all over there is little to no consideration given to the possible (Yes possible, hopefully there are none) issues from this Vaccine.

It’s remarkable that less than 12 months on from the ‘official’ discovery of the virus on these shores scientists have discovered, and pharmaceutical companies have produced in huge quantities the vaccine. Hats off to you.

While many are happy to cling to the headlines from the manufacturers of 90+ effectiveness there are large gaps in the data regarding testing.

The regulators have approved this (correctly) under emergency status or outside of their typical process because no safety data exists outside of a maximin of 6 months from use.

We don’t know a number of things about this vaccine, and the information on these things will only come out during the next while as they have not been covered in the trials

Is it safe for pregnant women, or those trying to get pregnant?
Is it safe for children?
Is there any other medicine that it cannot be taken with?
Do any existing medical conditions mean it cannot be taken?
How long does the vaccine provide immunity for.

It has not been tested on pregnant women or children
Very few vaccines will be tested on pregnant women initially for obvious reasons

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Comments