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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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    #6962
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,058 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I'm so confused about Sweden's daily reports. What is actual average daily deaths now? Like excluding backlogs etc. Are they just reporting some days? It's all over the place

    i did an experiment earlier in this thread where i followed 2 consecutive days back in April, 28th and 29th.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113854158&postcount=3427

    what was originally reported as 26 and 34 deaths, respectively, ended up at 83 each day.

    I was able to find deaths added 58 days after the original report.

    You would expect some delay in reporting due to autopsies etc... but the slowness and haphazardness of their reporting really is damning and its hard not to be very cynical as to the reasons behind it.


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    #6963
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    In Ireland deaths can be notified up to 3 months after they occurred. Its not unusual in any country. While its rare, it can happen and not for any particularly cynical reasons.


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    #6964
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    You don't actually have to focus on Sweden.

    Take a look at about 30 other countries that enacted strict lockdowns, then opened up, mostly to benefit from the summer tourist season, and then went into lockdown again. These countries opened up far more than Sweden have been. Czechia - national parties. Poland massive rallies involving hundreds of thousands against government abortion policies. Portugal F1 GP, Nothern Ireland who are doing far worse than us - crowds at football matches. Even ourselves - we're opening up a day after 18 deaths and close to 300 cases on average. And the reason we are opening up is lockdowns are not sustainable.

    Yes, but there isn't a thread here where a bunch of lunatics are advocating for the Polish or Czech strategy.


  • Options
    #6965
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Yes, but there isn't a thread here where a bunch of lunatics are advocating for the Polish or Czech strategy.

    Sorry? There's lots of people advocating for that strategy - unsustainable lockdowns.

    Virtually every country in Europe opened up to try and get something out of the summer tourist season. I forgot to add the Swiss and Austrians to the list - they want to open their ski slopes for the Christmas period to benefit from the winter tourist season - mostly wealthy visitors from abroad I'd say. This despite record daily deaths for both in the last few weeks.


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    #6966
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,752 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    i did an experiment earlier in this thread where i followed 2 consecutive days back in April, 28th and 29th.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113854158&postcount=3427

    what was originally reported as 26 and 34 deaths, respectively, ended up at 83 each day.

    I was able to find deaths added 58 days after the original report.

    You would expect some delay in reporting due to autopsies etc... but the slowness and haphazardness of their reporting really is damning and its hard not to be very cynical as to the reasons behind it.

    Are you not aware that such corrections to death numbers, months after the event, have been made here? Equally damning?


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    #6967
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    In Ireland deaths can be notified up to 3 months after they occurred. Its not unusual in any country. While its rare, it can happen and not for any particularly cynical reasons.

    as far as I know they are the only in the country in the world that report deaths this way.

    there is zero value to it. All it leads to is confusion and wildly incorrect posts like this one:

    cnocbui wrote: »
    The WHO covid-19 statistics for Sweden are in disagreement with that page.

    24 deaths attributed to 2-12-20
    3 deaths attributed to 1-12-20

    For Ireland, 16 deaths are attributed to 2-12-20, so we with our lockdown are doing worse than Sweden without locdown, proportionate to population.


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    #6968
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    So the only metrics you'll accept are obscure ones that are next to impossible to measure and only in the distant future. I see.
    Deaths, hospitalisation, ICU, GDP, unemployment - all of these things are completely irrelevant to you as a point of comparison?

    I'm not waving my "soothsaying morality" at you or anyone. I'm saying your position is fundamentally illogical and given the unenviable situation Sweden now find themselves in, it is just bat **** crazy to continue with it.

    I'll meet you back here in 10 years time I we can discuss the long term consequences. I'm pretty confident you'll be dead wrong about those too.

    Ah yes, a good old “so you’re saying [insert something here which is a huge leap away from what the person is actually saying]”. I dare say it’s easy to call someone’s position “fundamentally illogical” when you just add imaginary points to it but I fail to see where I said where any of those metrics you mention do not matter. In fact it is you who are dismissing a wide range of metrics simply because they are (in your words) “obscure and hard to predict” as if you were completely unaware that a global economic shutdown will exacerbate poverty and suffering across the world.

    Now, aside from putting words in my mouth, I don’t really see what “debate” you are even trying to have with me. You call Sweden’s position “unenviable”, which means what exactly? The prediction was that by now Sweden would have tens of thousands of dead and their health service would be overwhelmed / collapsed / obliterated or whatever other apocalyptic expressions could be dredged up. Our lockdown was based on a similar premise, a panic induced by what was happening in Italy. The Swedes did not panic and attempted to apply balance, in doing so they did not employ massively restrictive measures. The number of deaths they have is certainly higher than their neighbours, but it is nowhere near the high thresholds that people were fearing and which motivated the lockdown strategy and the majority of the dead are people who had reached over or close to life expectancy age (i.e. people who have generally lived longer lives than any other generation in the history of humanity).

    If saving lives is the be-all-and-end-all, if all that matters in this world is the zero sum game of who saves the most lives in the immediate future, then tell me where you’ll be this time next year. Indeed, why wait ten years to revisit this discussion when, surely if you are consistent, you will be back on here advocating lockdown for winter so that we can save more lives from infectious disease circulating in the cold months and alleviate the pressure on our ICU wards? If you don’t agree with that, why not? Shouldn’t saving lives be the most important thing, or do you draw your own little arbitrary line of what level of death is moral and what level of death is immoral ?

    Or do you accept that there is a need for, well, proportionality...and that saving lives in short term periods is an important concept that needs to be balanced with other important concepts?


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    #6969
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Sorry? There's lots of people advocating for that strategy - unsustainable lockdowns.

    Virtually every country in Europe opened up to try and get something out of the summer tourist season. I forgot to add the Swiss and Austrians to the list - they want to open their ski slopes for the Christmas period to benefit from the winter tourist season - mostly wealthy visitors from abroad I'd say. This despite record daily deaths.

    clearly you've no idea what went on in Czech or Poland

    They went the Sweden route after the first wave


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    #6970
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    clearly you've no idea what went on in Czech or Poland

    They went the Sweden route after the first wave

    No they didn't. Sweden did not have national parties to celebrate the end of covid or massive rallies to protest government policies.

    Nice try.

    Here's Poland in late October.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/pro-choice-supporters-hold-biggest-ever-protest-against-polish-government
    About one hundred thousand protesters took to the streets of the Polish capital, Warsaw, on Friday, in the largest demonstration of popular anger directed against Poland’s ruling rightwing Law and Justice party (PiS) since it assumed office in 2015.

    And here's Czechia

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688#:~:text=The%20World%20Health%20Organization%20(WHO,coronavirus%20a%20%22symbolic%20farewell%22.&text=The%20event%27s%20organiser%20said%20the,in%20the%20famously%20charming%20city.

    And Northern Ireland allows crowds of several hundred at soccer matches, something the Swedes decided against in early October.

    Ni, Czechia and Poland are currently seeing an extremely bad second wave.


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    #6971
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    ArthurDayne wrote: »
    Ah yes, a good old “so you’re saying [insert something here which is a huge leap away from what the person is actually saying]”. I dare say it’s easy to call someone’s position “fundamentally illogical” when you just add imaginary points to it but I fail to see where I said where any of those metrics you mention do not matter. In fact it is you who are dismissing a wide range of metrics simply because they are (in your words) “obscure and hard to predict” as if you were completely unaware that a global economic shutdown will exacerbate poverty and suffering across the world.

    Now, aside from putting words in my mouth, I don’t really see what “debate” you are even trying to have with me. You call Sweden’s position “unenviable”, which means what exactly? The prediction was that by now Sweden would have tens of thousands of dead and their health service would be overwhelmed / collapsed / obliterated or whatever other apocalyptic expressions could be dredged up. Our lockdown was based on a similar premise, a panic induced by what was happening in Italy. The Swedes did not panic and attempted to apply balance, in doing so they did not employ massively restrictive measures. The number of deaths they have is certainly higher than their neighbours, but it is nowhere near the high thresholds that people were fearing and which motivated the lockdown strategy and the majority of the dead are people who had reached over or close to life expectancy age (i.e. people who have generally lived longer lives than any other generation in the history of humanity).

    If saving lives is the be-all-and-end-all, if all that matters in this world is the zero sum game of who saves the most lives in the immediate future, then tell me where you’ll be this time next year. Indeed, why wait ten years to revisit this discussion when, surely if you are consistent, you will be back on here advocating lockdown for winter so that we can save more lives from infectious disease circulating in the cold months and alleviate the pressure on our ICU wards? If you don’t agree with that, why not? Shouldn’t saving lives be the most important thing, or do you draw your own little arbitrary line of what level of death is moral and what level of death is immoral ?

    Or do you accept that there is a need for, well, proportionality...and that saving lives in short term periods is an important concept that needs to be balanced with other important concepts?

    Give me one tangible benefit of Sweden's approach.

    And try to keep it a little shorter, please.


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    #6972
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,058 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Are you not aware that such corrections to death numbers, months after the event, have been made here? Equally damning?

    absolutely nowhere near the same level as Sweden

    Swedens deaths rise like a tide.

    I can only recall one case here where a death was reported over one month later.

    like i said already, i was watching this closely back during the first wave and there was numerous deaths being added retrospectively weeks after first reporting.


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    #6973
    alias no.9
    Registered Users Posts: 6,266 ✭✭✭alias no.9


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Give me one tangible benefit of Sweden's approach.

    And try to keep it a little shorter, please.

    They focussed their resources on increasing ICU capacity rather than paying people not to go to work


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    #6974
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    cnocbui wrote: »
    The WHO covid-19 statistics for Sweden are in disagreement with that page.

    24 deaths attributed to 2-12-20
    3 deaths attributed to 1-12-20

    For Ireland, 16 deaths are attributed to 2-12-20, so we with our lockdown are doing worse than Sweden without locdown, proportionate to population.

    I expect you can read the instructions given above on how to find deaths notified today December 2nd, just to help you, there were 174 deaths notified today, 117 yesterday, 59 on Nov 27th, 67 Nov 26th, 55 on the 25th.........these death were only notified on those days and most likely happened sometime in the previous 10 days due to the way they are reported, I think its fair to say the daily death rate in Sweden is far above what gets reported because of the lag in reporting.


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    #6975
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    alias no.9 wrote: »
    They focussed their resources on increasing ICU capacity rather than paying people not to go to work

    174 deaths notified today makes that look like getting 50% of something right.


  • Options
    #6976
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users Posts: 2,147 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    No they didn't. Sweden did not have national parties to celebrate the end of covid or massive rallies to protest government policies.

    Nice try.

    Here's Poland in late October.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/pro-choice-supporters-hold-biggest-ever-protest-against-polish-government



    And here's Czechia

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53244688#:~:text=The%20World%20Health%20Organization%20(WHO,coronavirus%20a%20%22symbolic%20farewell%22.&text=The%20event%27s%20organiser%20said%20the,in%20the%20famously%20charming%20city.

    Poland were in a dire situation weeks before that. I'm sure it didn't help in terms of covid, but it is not the source of their difficulties. It's not even possible to say what effect it had.

    The poles relaxed their rules long before that.

    As for the Czechs, that party was of course mental but had little to no impact on their numbers.


  • Options
    #6977
    ArthurDayne
    Registered Users Posts: 1,582 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    Give me one tangible benefit of Sweden's approach.

    And try to keep it a little shorter, please.

    You’re some craic, very quick to bandy around terms like “fundamentally illogical” but three odd paragraphs is simply too much to bear. If you are too busy to read, then don’t read. Simple as that.

    The benefit of Sweden’s approach is that it is more proportionate, more flexible and protects to a better extent other important things in this world like civil liberty (you know, that concept we commemorate people who died for etc etc), the opportunity to interact with others, see your friends and loved ones — the range of things that make life worth living. You’re using the term “tangible” to turn it into a zero sum game — tangibly Sweden had more deaths than Norway etc, tangibly they didn’t have some economic boom. It’s just another way of avoiding the inconvenient reality that Sweden’s experience with Covid has not been of such catastrophic severity that it would have proportionally justified severe restrictions.

    So tell me, what’s the “tangible” benefit of reopening the country for Christmas if the inevitable result is more Covid infection and more Covid death? What’s the tangible benefit of allowing people to be infected and die so we can all go Christmas shopping and sit in restaurants again? Could it be Tony that maybe, just maybe, it’s borne out of an understanding that saving lives in the immediate sense has to be balanced proportionally with (here’s that dirty word) the intangible things that give us enjoyment in life?


  • Options
    #6978
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    alias no.9 wrote: »
    They focussed their resources on increasing ICU capacity rather than paying people not to go to work


    People were still being paid not to go to work by means of furlough.That meant they did not show as unemployed on government statistics.
    Svenska Handelsbanken AB one of Sweden`s largest banks in their July report on the Swedish economy, put the true level of unemployment at 19%.
    I doubt it has dropped from that level since. Gone the other direction if anything I imagine.

    They still have those ICU beds, but are using lockdown now.


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    #6979
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,752 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    greyday wrote: »
    I expect you can read the instructions given above on how to find deaths notified today December 2nd, just to help you, there were 174 deaths notified today, 117 yesterday, 59 on Nov 27th, 67 Nov 26th, 55 on the 25th.........these death were only notified on those days and most likely happened sometime in the previous 10 days due to the way they are reported, I think its fair to say the daily death rate in Sweden is far above what gets reported because of the lag in reporting.

    What instructions, where?


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    #6980
    the incredible pudding
    Registered Users Posts: 1,369 ✭✭✭the incredible pudding


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Svenska Handelsbanken AB one of Sweden`s largest banks in their July report on the Swedish economy, put the true level of unemployment at 19%.
    I doubt it has dropped from that level since. Gone the other direction if anything I imagine.

    You're gonna have to provide a source for that one. The only thing I could get near that after doing some searches in Swedish were reports from them stating that Sweden was the only country with growing unemployment in the Union in 2019 and that it expected it to drop further (whilst pushing for fiscal reform that would benefit them of course) and more recently an article from them where they said it was outperforming their expectations.


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    #6981
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    cnocbui wrote: »
    What instructions, where?

    On how get the correct number of deaths notified today, it's not hard if you follow the instructions of the post you replied to earlier.


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    #6982
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,752 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    greyday wrote: »
    On how get the correct number of deaths notified today, it's not hard if you follow the instructions of the post you replied to earlier.

    Why should i follow the instructions on that web site? Do you believe it to be a more authoratitive source than the WHO? If so, why?


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    #6983
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    Are you telling me that Sweden did not report 174 deaths today?

    Did you discredit WHO previously?

    The WHO seems to be taking confirmed deaths per day rather than notified deaths per day which puts them behind in real time, they have total deaths as 6798 which is not counting the 174 deaths notified today, check tomorrow and they may be up to date.


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    #6984
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,752 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    greyday wrote: »
    Are you telling me that Sweden did not report 174 deaths today?

    Did you discredit WHO previously?

    The WHO seems to be taking confirmed deaths per day rather than notified deaths per day which puts them behind in real time, they have total deaths as 6798 which is not counting the 174 deaths notified today, check tomorrow and they may be up to date.

    No Sweden did not have 174 deaths today.

    That website you are using is making stuff up. It has Sweden having 117 deaths on 1st Dec. The Swedish Public Health agency data portal has 13 deaths.

    The WHO site lists Swedens total deaths as 6798, the Swedish data portal lists 6792, while the crazy site you linked to is off with the fairies at 6972 - which looks like someone transposed the 9 and the 7 - out by over 2.6%.

    John Hopkins uses the official data portal site I quoted above for it's information, so you can be pretty sure it's the recognised site for accurate and official data. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19


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    #6985
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    cnocbui wrote: »
    No Sweden did not have 174 deaths today.

    That website you are using is making stuff up. It has Sweden having 117 deaths on 1st Dec. The Swedish Public Health agency data portal has 13 deaths.

    The WHO site lists Swedens total deaths as 6798, the Swedish data portal lists 6792, while the crazy site you linked to is off with the fairies at 6972 - which looks like someone transposed the 9 and the 7 - out by over 2.6%.

    John Hopkins uses the official data portal site I quoted above for it's information, so you can be pretty sure it's the recognised site for accurate and official data. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

    It is notified deaths......from previous days because of chronic under reporting grasshopper, WHO will catch up......


  • Options
    #6986
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Well it doesn't look like there were 174 deaths yesterday but just the previous days and weeks were updated with a backlog of deaths. They appear to be averaging about 50 deaths a day which is less than a number of similar sized countries.

    The stat I'm most interested in and tells the most is deaths per million, and Sweden is slowly going down on that table. Poland for example has about 3.5 times Swedens population but averaging 6 times the deaths. Its only a matter of time for them and a few other countries to climb above Sweden in deaths per million.

    I still think Sweden will be about 30th in deaths per million when this is all over which is remarkable given how they avoided a lockdown for most of it.

    I also think Irelands inevitable lockdown in January could last 6 weeks or more and its unlikely we'll have enough people vaccinated when its over.


  • Options
    #6987
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,752 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    greyday wrote: »
    It is notified deaths......from previous days because of chronic under reporting grasshopper, WHO will catch up......

    Trump's not the only spoofer. Nobody's going to be catching up with that site that can't even get the basics right.


  • Options
    #6988
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Trump's not the only spoofer. Nobody's going to be catching up with that site that can't even get the basics right.

    Its never too late to expand your knowledge although I do accept you have difficulties dealing with facts regarding Sweden.

    How confirmed deaths are presented for Sweden
    COVID-19 deaths are reported by the Swedish government by the date on which the death occurred.

    Since there is a lag between the time a person dies and the time the death is reported, the death counts for the most recent period are always incomplete. They are often most incomplete for the latest 2 to 5 days, but can be incomplete for 10 days or more. This undercount in recent days means that they often appear to be falling; but when this is later completed, data shows that more deaths were occurring during that period.

    This means that for the last 10 days of data, death counts in Sweden must only be interpreted as incomplete measures of mortality.

    As an example, this chart shows what confirmed deaths looked like for the period from October 20 to October 29, when the data was first published on October 30 (red series), and once many more death certificates had been added on November 12 (blue series).

    One day after October 29, it looked as if deaths had peaked on October 27 and then started to fall, but in reality that’s not what happened over this period. What actually happened is shown by the blue series: deaths increased steadily.

    This also means that each day, the Swedish government will add new deaths for multiple days in the past—mostly on recent days, but on average up to 10 days in the past, and sometimes even more, if deaths have been reported with a long delay.

    Our source for COVID-19 deaths, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, updates its figures for Sweden directly from the Swedish government’s data. This means that these daily changes affecting the historical data will be visible on our charts.

    Sweden is the only country for which the European CDC currently applies this method for the reporting of deaths. It is also important to note that this does not apply to confirmed cases, but only to confirmed deaths.


  • Options
    #6989
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    cnocbui wrote: »
    No Sweden did not have 174 deaths today.

    That website you are using is making stuff up. It has Sweden having 117 deaths on 1st Dec. The Swedish Public Health agency data portal has 13 deaths.

    The WHO site lists Swedens total deaths as 6798, the Swedish data portal lists 6792, while the crazy site you linked to is off with the fairies at 6972 - which looks like someone transposed the 9 and the 7 - out by over 2.6%.

    John Hopkins uses the official data portal site I quoted above for it's information, so you can be pretty sure it's the recognised site for accurate and official data. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19




    They had a lot of deaths tbf, whatever source anyone is using.


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    #6990
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    They had a lot of deaths tbf, whatever source anyone is using.

    He doesn't understand what NOTIFIED means, I have tried my best to explain but sometimes you have to accept your own and others limitations.


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    #6991
    greyday
    Registered Users Posts: 674 ✭✭✭greyday


    Only 35 NOTIFIED today with nearly 6.5K infections.


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