COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 04:42PM

El Sueño wrote: »

The results from the vaccines were as good as anyone could've possibly hoped yet you've still got people moaning. Imagine if they'd only been 50-60% effective, I dread to think what the state of this thread would be.

By moaning do you mean to say - people are questioning a hastily researched medical treatment that will be put into widespread use?

Is it really unreasonable for people to question the substances that are going to be injected into them?

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 04:44PM

El Sueño wrote: »

Absolutely, the amount of loons that have crawled out of the woodwork the last few months is staggering.

Is everybody who holds a different opinion to you a loon? Or just the ones that don’t think the same as you with regards medicine?

speckle · 02-12-2020 04:45PM

Polar101 wrote: »

What's with the smart comments? The last time I was part of a "mass vaccination", they gave me a sugar cube. I guess that's not an option this time.

Reminds me of TB medicine for kids... came in pouches like the hundreds and thousands topping for trifle which you mixed with milk to make a milkshake.

ShineOn7 · 02-12-2020 04:46PM

El Sueño wrote: »

Absolutely, the amount of loons that have crawled out of the woodwork the last few months is staggering.

It made me shake my head a little in sadness seeing people I've known and liked for years do things like turn up at anti-mask protests and/or post utterly wrong and dangerous information on Facebook

These are people who I thought to be intelligent thinking before 2020

No more

LuckyLloyd · 02-12-2020 04:48PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

A lot of unknowns so.

Take the vaccine only to find possibly in 12 months that you are sick with Covid because effectively the next few years of taking this vaccine is an extension of a medical trial.

There is absolutely no information about medium or long term effects or info on medium or long term efficacy.

There has to be a scale, albeit a scale that people have to decide their own position on that balances on one end the risk of taking something which has an element of unknown effectiveness and unknown side effects versus the other side of the scale which is the actual risk to you of contracting the virus.

Where you stand on this scale is determined by your age and abundance or lack of medical issues such as obesity, hearth disease, asthma etc etc.

Personally I don’t see myself near the halfway point that would warrant taking the vaccine, but many of my family members would be.

I’m not any kind of anti-vax person, but I’m not sick enough, or in enough risk from Covid to sign up for what is essentially a medical trial treatment.

Hopefully, but I doubt it that people will be able to see the difference between the anti-vax autism cohort and people that just don’t need this vaccine.

How do you determine your level of risk? We may be able to quantify a death rate but the risk of long covid or specific heart inflammation, etc is significantly greater than the death rate. Research is ongoing into that too but it would seem unwise to assume that there is no impact to any age or health cohort.

lolokeogh · 02-12-2020 04:49PM

El Sueño wrote: »

Absolutely, the amount of loons that have crawled out of the woodwork the last few months is staggering.

Ah so loons all because they dont swallow what you say?

seamie78 · 02-12-2020 04:50PM

or what science says

funnydoggy · 02-12-2020 04:53PM

lolokeogh wrote: »

Ah so loons all because they dont swallow what you say?

I forgot El Sueño was in charge of development, oversight and review process of each vaccine. Doh.

Russman · 02-12-2020 05:01PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Hopefully, but I doubt it that people will be able to see the difference between the anti-vax autism cohort and people that just don’t need this vaccine.

The whole point of a vaccination programme is that eventually you try to get to herd immunity. So in that sense its in everyone's interest that as many people as possible get the vaccine. I protect you by my getting it and vice versa. If everyone, or even just the theoretically "non vulnerable" took the view that they don't need it as individuals, we'd never get to that point.

ShineOn7 · 02-12-2020 05:07PM

Sir John's update

Bonus: he looks like he's raving in the 90s in the thumbnail

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8KYWQICMMU

Sky King · 02-12-2020 05:08PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

He looks like he's raving in the 90s in the thumbnail

Bigfish Lilfish Cardboard box!

JDD · 02-12-2020 05:21PM

I do understand lawrencesummers feelings on this.

Put aside the fact that we need herd immunity to protect individuals who cannot take the vaccine for whatever health reason.

Say we get to June, and there has been an 80% uptake from over 70's, HCW and under-70's with serious underlying conditions.

The letter comes to you in the post offering you an appointment time to get your vaccine. You are in your twenties, or thirties, healthy, no underlying conditions. Your parents and those close to you in the vulnerable categories have already been immunized.

You know that the vaccine being offered to you is safe in the short term, because lots and lots of people worldwide took the vaccine in January or February. You do not know how safe the vaccine is in the medium term or the long term. You understand that for the vast majority of vaccines if issues come up they tend to come up immediately, but it is still at the back of your mind that the vaccine is only 12 months old, at best. So there is a sense of the unknown.

In addition, you don't know whether you will need to get a top up vaccination every year. What are the health implications of having to get a top up every year? Nobody knows, at least not yet.

Whereas you do have some certainty is over what effects Covid would have on you should you become infected. If you are young, healthy, and do not work in a health care or factory environment, the chances of being hospitalised are miniscule. You may consider the possibility that you will be effected by long covid, as a result of a mild infection. However, again, it appears that long covid is rare, and even rarer in those not hospitalised as a result of their infection. Still, you consider the possibility.

And then you weigh it against the unknown medium or long term effects of the vaccine, or indeed the unknown short, medium or long term effects of having to take the vaccine on an annual basis.

If you are at the middle point, perhaps taking the vaccine because it is the "right thing to do for society" might tip you into the "alright then, I'll take it" category. But if you are some percentage points away from the middle point, the "good for society" aspect isn't going to get you there.

Just to say, I will take the vaccine when it is offered to me. I am young and healthy. But I would be more concerned about catching a bad dose of covid or indeed suffering from lingering symptoms, then I would be about the miniscule chance that these frontrunner vaccines have some unknown long term side effects. The way I see it, I took a few illegal substances in my time without genuinely thinking what the long term effects might be. And they were just to have a good time at a party. This will actually prevent me from getting sick.

But I can see why someone might tip the other way.

02-12-2020 05:25PM

JDD wrote: »

I do understand lawrencesummers feelings on this.

Put aside the fact that we need herd immunity to protect individuals who cannot take the vaccine for whatever health reason.

Say we get to June, and there has been an 80% uptake from over 70's, HCW and under-70's with serious underlying conditions.

The letter comes to you in the post offering you an appointment time to get your vaccine. You are in your twenties, or thirties, healthy, no underlying conditions. Your parents and those close to you in the vulnerable categories have already been immunized.

You know that the vaccine being offered to you is safe in the short term, because lots and lots of people worldwide took the vaccine in January or February. You do not know how safe the vaccine is in the medium term or the long term. You understand that for the vast majority of vaccines if issues come up they tend to come up immediately, but it is still at the back of your mind that the vaccine is only 12 months old, at best. So there is a sense of the unknown.

In addition, you don't know whether you will need to get a top up vaccination every year. What are the health implications of having to get a top up every year? Nobody knows, at least not yet.

Whereas you do have some certainty is over what effects Covid would have on you should you become infected. If you are young, healthy, and do not work in a health care or factory environment, the chances of being hospitalised are miniscule. You may consider the possibility that you will be effected by long covid, as a result of a mild infection. However, again, it appears that long covid is rare, and even rarer in those not hospitalised as a result of their infection. Still, you consider the possibility.

And then you weigh it against the unknown medium or long term effects of the vaccine, or indeed the unknown short, medium or long term effects of having to take the vaccine on an annual basis.

If you are at the middle point, perhaps taking the vaccine because it is the "right thing to do for society" might tip you into the "alright then, I'll take it" category. But if you are some percentage points away from the middle point, the "good for society" aspect isn't going to get you there.

Just to say, I will take the vaccine when it is offered to me. I am young and healthy. But I would be more concerned about catching a bad dose of covid or indeed suffering from lingering symptoms, then I would be about the miniscule chance that these frontrunner vaccines have some unknown long term side effects. The way I see it, I took a few illegal substances in my time without genuinely thinking what the long term effects might be. And they were just to have a good time at a party. This will actually prevent me from getting sick.

But I can see why someone might tip the other way.

The long term impacts of vaccines are apparent in the short term. It either triggers an auto-immune condition or it doesn't. How debilitating that may be for each individual may not be apparent in the short term but the fact of the effect will be

hmmm · 02-12-2020 05:33PM

JDD wrote: »

Whereas you do have some certainty is over what effects Covid would have on you should you become infected.

In my opinion, anyone who thinks they know for certain how Covid will affect them are being very naive, and are making a very poor risk assessment in comparison to a vaccine. We have no idea what the long-term effects of even mild Covid will be, and I can't quite wrap my head around how some people can be worried about long-term effects from a vaccine, yet only seem to be interested in short-term effects from a coronavirus.

Can you imagine what would be said if scientists released a vaccine which they thought has a small chance of killing young people, affects the lining of blood vessels with unknown future impact, may cause long-lasting neurological damage for a reason we yet don't know, and has been linked to strokes and blood clots after infection? Yet apparently this is all fine for people who say "Covid shouldn't affect me and there isn't enough data about a vaccine".

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201109/evidence-shows-that-covid-19-attacks-blood-vessels
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/health/covid-survivors.html
https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-report/new-cause-of-covid-19-blood-clots-identified
https://www.thelancet.com/article/S1474-4422(20)30272-6/fulltext

stephenjmcd · 02-12-2020 05:40PM

tonycascarino wrote: »

Personally, I am not taking any of these rushed vaccines until I see the effects it has on other people first.

Explain your definition of rushed please ? Where do you feel safety corners have been cut ? What part of the process are you uneasy with?

I've a sense that we'll go around in circles with information that's already widely available regarding the trials and production of vaccines but I'm curious to see how you feel its rushed when you don't offer context.

Father Hernandez · 02-12-2020 05:44PM

tonycascarino wrote: »

Personally, I am not taking any of these rushed vaccines until I see the effects it has on other people first.

How long will you wait? A year, 5 years, 20 years?

Deeper Blue · 02-12-2020 05:50PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

By moaning do you mean to say - people are questioning a hastily researched medical treatment that will be put into widespread use?

Is it really unreasonable for people to question the substances that are going to be injected into them?

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Is everybody who holds a different opinion to you a loon? Or just the ones that don’t think the same as you with regards medicine?

lolokeogh wrote: »

Ah so loons all because they dont swallow what you say?

All I'm saying is that people need to actually pay attention to science and not facebook.

Also every anti vaxxer out there is a complete moron. I don't discriminate in that sense.

Sconsey · 02-12-2020 05:54PM

tonycascarino wrote: »

Personally, I am not taking any of these rushed vaccines until I see the effects it has on other people first.

That is a role normally carried out by the experts like the FDA or the EMA. They can probably do a better job than you in deciding if there is a risk here or not. They are in fact doing that job right now.

is_that_so · 02-12-2020 06:00PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Explain your definition of rushed please ? Where do you feel safety corners have been cut ? What part of the process are you uneasy with?

I've a sense that we'll go around in circles with information that's already widely available regarding the trials and production of vaccines but I'm curious to see how you feel its rushed when you don't offer context.

The perception of them being rushed is down to how quickly these vaccines are getting through the phases. The more typical timescale is often down to money and approval to move to subsequent phases and having live cases to play with. It is one of the positives of COVID, if we could use that word; there are plenty of cases and mountains of money around.

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 06:02PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

How do you determine your level of risk? We may be able to quantify a death rate but the risk of long covid or specific heart inflammation, etc is significantly greater than the death rate. Research is ongoing into that too but it would seem unwise to assume that there is no impact to any age or health cohort.

Im not saying there is no impact. I’m saying the line is somewhere between the level of risk due to your age and health versus the risk of the unknown around the vaccine.

At some point people need to decide themselves where they stand on that scale. I know where I stand.

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 06:04PM

El Sueño wrote: »

All I'm saying is that people need to actually pay attention to science and not facebook.

Also every anti vaxxer out there is a complete moron. I don't discriminate in that sense.

Are you unable to distinguish between the anti-vax “it causes autism” movement and the “I’m not sure about this because it’s kinda rushed and I would like to see longer term studies”

Or are you just happy to completely generalise?

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 06:06PM

Russman wrote: »

The whole point of a vaccination programme is that eventually you try to get to herd immunity. So in that sense its in everyone's interest that as many people as possible get the vaccine. I protect you by my getting it and vice versa. If everyone, or even just the theoretically "non vulnerable" took the view that they don't need it as individuals, we'd never get to that point.

But if you have the vaccine you don’t need to worry about the people that don’t.

Mitch Connor · 02-12-2020 06:07PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Im not saying there is no impact. I’m saying the line is somewhere between the level of risk due to your age and health versus the risk of the unknown around the vaccine.

At some point people need to decide themselves where they stand on that scale. I know where I stand.

whatever about risk to myself,I'mnot particularly bothered in that respect, but I would have concern for my parents or other relatives.my friends and their kids etc.

Vaccine won't be 100% effective so even if they get the jab, it is still possible for me to transmit c19 to them (possibly but far less likely if we both have had the vaccine).

I just don't see why I would actively chose to put others at risk. I'll get the vaccine as soon as I am able to.

Mitch Connor · 02-12-2020 06:09PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

But if you have the vaccine you don’t need to worry about the people that don’t.

that isn't tue.

As with any vaccine you can still get whatever it was against. the chances are far more remote, but still possible.

If I knew someone in the vunerable category I wouldn't knowingly let someone like yourself anywhere near them given the choice.

is_that_so · 02-12-2020 06:09PM

The first section of this explains normal vaccine development and why it takes so long.

A group of scientists who have a bright idea for a way to make a vaccine against a virus would spend months or years doing the early work involving laboratory tests.

https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2020/sep/21/covid-19-vaccine-race-develop

lbj666 · 02-12-2020 06:13PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Im not saying there is no impact. I’m saying the line is somewhere between the level of risk due to your age and health versus the risk of the unknown around the vaccine.

At some point people need to decide themselves where they stand on that scale. I know where I stand.

I am curious to know in your estimation what your odds of getting long covid are?

lawrencesummers · 02-12-2020 06:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The long term impacts of vaccines are apparent in the short term. It either triggers an auto-immune condition or it doesn't. How debilitating that may be for each individual may not be apparent in the short term but the fact of the effect will be

Your missing the point.
The possible adverse effects are in question.

Have a look at the people who suffered from taking Pandemrix where “ families were informed a vaccine was perfectly safe for use when health chiefs knew that it had not been fully tested”

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/health/swine-flu-vaccine-side-effects-so-bad-that-children-were-like-schizophrenics-37275895.html

It’s not unreasonable to be cautious.

stephenjmcd · 02-12-2020 06:14PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The perception of them being rushed is down to how quickly these vaccines are getting through the phases. The more typical timescale is often down to money and approval to move to subsequent phases and having live cases to play with. It is one of the positives of COVID, if we could use that word; there are plenty of cases and mountains of money around.

Yup I know and that no corners are being cut. The process is being streamlined effectively. Just wanted to see why the poster felt they were rushed

Deeper Blue · 02-12-2020 06:14PM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Are you unable to distinguish between the anti-vax “it causes autism” movement and the “I’m not sure about this because it’s kinda rushed and I would like to see longer term studies”

Or are you just happy to completely generalise?

Ok granted there's a bit of a difference between the conspiracy theory lunatics and people that are hesitant.

Anyone that doesn't take the vaccine is going to prolong this covid crap though so both are part of the problem.

hmmm · 02-12-2020 06:15PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The perception of them being rushed is down to how quickly these vaccines are getting through the phases.

Maybe people don't realise it's not actually a whiskey which will mature over time in a fine oak barrel?

The science is the science, and the trials are the trials, and we got a bit of a move on with them because there's a pandemic.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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