Gameweek 10 - Transfer Thread

Father Hernandez · 25-11-2020 11:29am

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I have so much fear this week.

That Zaha situation makes it quite easy for me to go Zaha to City Mid

But I will seriously fear Vardy.

I'm then also half thinking

Bamford - Aguero
Zaha - Maddison or Barnes

Or else its Bamford - Vardy
Zaha - Mahrez/Bilva/Foden etc as won't have enough for KDB/Sterling

If you're going for Leicester, it has to be Vardy IMO. Anyone else is just cover for the Vardy inevitable points he'll get and it's a guessing game between either Maddison (blanked 2 in 8) or Barnes (blanked 2 in 9).

City is a minefield sure you know, maybe park that for this week and look to do a -4 next week and bring in KDB if at all possible?

TVSAdamwest · 25-11-2020 11:37am

siblers wrote: »

I'm concerned by Bruno giving that pen to Rashford.

Was it a once off or is Bruno off pens?

If he is off them, I'd probably sell him

Bruno is not off pens, he gave a team mate a peno to help his confidence as he did with Martial against Leipzig.
Keeping with the topic of penalty takers, doesn't Milner getting a run in the team take them away from Salah?

ThunbergsAreGo · 25-11-2020 11:38am

TVSAdamwest wrote: »

Bruno is not off pens, he gave a team mate a peno to help his confidence as he did with Martial against Leipzig.
Keeping with the topic of penalty takers, doesn't Milner getting a run in the team take them away from Salah?

Think last time they were both on the pitch Salah took it

Dearg81 · 25-11-2020 11:59am

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Think last time they were both on the pitch Salah took it

Yea Salah is number 1 now.

nullObjects · 25-11-2020 1:15pm

Was going to double up with Sterling and KDB for the next City run but think I'll go with KDB and Cancello instead
Saiss out, was kind of hoping he'd make his way back into the team but Nuno seems fairly set as he is

Saiss > Cancello

siblers · 25-11-2020 2:42pm

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I have so much fear this week.

That Zaha situation makes it quite easy for me to go Zaha to City Mid

But I will seriously fear Vardy.

I'm then also half thinking

Bamford - Aguero
Zaha - Maddison or Barnes

Or else its Bamford - Vardy
Zaha - Mahrez/Bilva/Foden etc as won't have enough for KDB/Sterling

You can afford Bamford to Aguero? You must be flush with transfer funds!

Morzadec · 25-11-2020 7:16pm

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Think last time they were both on the pitch Salah took it

Dearg81 wrote: »

Yea Salah is number 1 now.

It's worth mentioning that that was a last kick of the game penalty to make it 2-0. Rashford took one last night but clearly Bruno is the go to man still, especially if it's a pressure kick to use a potentially comparative situation.

If I had to guess I would say Salah would take it as he hasn't missed yet and he does strike me as someone who wants them, he wants to get his numbers up, but it wouldn't shock me to see Milner take it. Certainly if I was the manager I would be telling the team that Milner is number 1 as I think he has a better technique. I don't think it's definitive.

Liverpool don't do egos, and Klopp is a very strong manager. If they have a pecking order which is strongly enforced for competitive situations then Milner might still be top of that.

So imo it's not 100% that Salah takes the penalty if it's awarded this weekend.

eh i dunno · 25-11-2020 8:04pm

Salah starts tonight

Ginger n Lemon · 25-11-2020 8:40pm

Someone please help preferably tonight! (Jota price set to rise at 2 am)

So I have

Martinez
Chillwell - Coufal - robertson - mitchell - Telles

Bruno - Son - Zaha - Grealish - Riedewald (pretty niche huh)

Kane - DCL - Wilson

My obvious concern is Zaha. But I also dont seem to have a clear captain for the gw... my thoughts are:

1) Kane out , Vardy in - captain Vardy and if Zaha doesnt play coufal can come in for 4 - 3 - 3

2) Zaha out, Ziyech in (Ziyech long term feels like a sound transfer) but this leaves me struggling with captain

or 3) Zaha out, Jota in... Jota is benched tonight, have a feeling he could start v Brighton but again this leaves me with no obvious captain choice and constant worry that he is benched..

any help? or do nothing and hope Zaha pulls through? Captain Bruno? Saints looked very shaky v wolves who are notoriously slow starters too.... got 2.7m ITB

Shanotheslayer · 25-11-2020 8:47pm

siblers wrote: »

You can afford Bamford to Aguero? You must be flush with transfer funds!

7M ITB

Salah getting Covid on my WC the main reason why

munster87 · 25-11-2020 8:50pm

My worry if that was my team would be that City are playing Burnley and Liverpool are playing Brighton and I have no mid/attacker from either. I think Jota will start at weekend with being benched tonight, barring something happening in this game. At least he would be some attacking cover?
Bruno isn’t a bad captaincy pick. Mad for points away from home so far this season.

franglan · 25-11-2020 8:52pm

Any thoughts on Aguero at the weekend? Will he play at the weekend with his son's grandfather passing? Not exactly sure how the family set up is there, I know Sergio has a new woman.

ThunbergsAreGo · 25-11-2020 9:29pm

munster87 wrote: »

My worry if that was my team would be that City are playing Burnley and Liverpool are playing Brighton and I have no mid/attacker from either. I think Jota will start at weekend with being benched tonight, barring something happening in this game. At least he would be some attacking cover?
Bruno isn’t a bad captaincy pick. Mad for points away from home so far this season.

I feel you, thinking Ziyech and Son to Jota and KDB

Trouser Snake · 25-11-2020 9:41pm

Lamptey out, Kyle Walker in. City are due to go on a run I'm hoping. Staying stubborn with Richarlison even though he's not greedy enough at times.

TimesArrow · 25-11-2020 10:02pm

Any chance Aguero might miss game on compassionate leave? His father in law maradona just died

Shedite27 · 25-11-2020 10:09pm

Is Zaha to Jota worth a -4?

Trouser Snake · 25-11-2020 10:17pm

Is Jota a starter? Bobby scored last weekend.

ThunbergsAreGo · 25-11-2020 10:28pm

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Is Jota a starter? Bobby scored last weekend.

That is the big question we all need to ask!

He is in great form at the moment, and even if he doesnt start will be first sub on

25-11-2020 10:31pm

Trouser Snake wrote: »

Is Jota a starter? Bobby scored last weekend.

That’s a good question considering how many are buying him.

I think some are downgrading Salah to Jota (I did consider it but against it now) and some are going Zaha (and other mid priced midfielders) to Jota too.

I don’t think he starts in the same way a guaranteed starter does. He’ll get minutes coming on as a sub. He’ll get minutes when any of the front 3 get rested. All those minutes may be enough to justify his price. But again, not for me.

He is very very tempting though but if I don’t think he’s guaranteed to start then I can’t buy him.

If Liverpool played a 4-2-3-1 then I see Jota starting with Bobby playing in the middle of the 3 and Salah up front and Jota on the right with the latter 2 interchanging but I’m not convinced it’ll happen.

ThunbergsAreGo · 25-11-2020 10:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

That’s a good question considering how many are buying him.

I think some are downgrading Salah to Jota (I did consider it but against it now) and some are going Zaha (and other mid priced midfielders) to Jota too.

I don’t think he starts in the same way a guaranteed starter does. He’ll get minutes coming on as a sub. He’ll get minutes when any of the front 3 get rested. All those minutes may be enough to justify his price. But again, not for me.

He is very very tempting though but if I don’t think he’s guaranteed to start then I can’t buy him.

If Liverpool played a 4-2-3-1 then I see Jota starting with Bobby playing in the middle of the 3 and Salah up front and Jota on the right with the latter 2 interchanging but I’m not convinced it’ll happen.

That is a really good response, however there is a massive upside with Jota. Even if not playing he is first off the bench for Liverpool and at 6.6. is a massive enabler.

The games will be coming thick and fast over the next while and we will see serious rotation. I am looking at him for Ziyech, and I could equally see him rotated for Pulisic/Havertz/Werner etc over Christmas

joeyboy11 · 25-11-2020 11:11pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Someone please help preferably tonight! (Jota price set to rise at 2 am)

So I have

Martinez
Chillwell - Coufal - robertson - mitchell - Telles

Bruno - Son - Zaha - Grealish - Riedewald (pretty niche huh)

Kane - DCL - Wilson

My obvious concern is Zaha. But I also dont seem to have a clear captain for the gw... my thoughts are:

1) Kane out , Vardy in - captain Vardy and if Zaha doesnt play coufal can come in for 4 - 3 - 3

2) Zaha out, Ziyech in (Ziyech long term feels like a sound transfer) but this leaves me struggling with captain

or 3) Zaha out, Jota in... Jota is benched tonight, have a feeling he could start v Brighton but again this leaves me with no obvious captain choice and constant worry that he is benched..

any help? or do nothing and hope Zaha pulls through? Captain Bruno? Saints looked very shaky v wolves who are notoriously slow starters too.... got 2.7m ITB

I can’t really advise the transfers as I have no idea what to do with my 2 frees but regarding captain I think Bruno is a good shout away to Southampton.
I don’t think Southampton will be as wreckless as they were against spurs earlier this season but they will try take the game to united and won’t park the bus which will suit united. I have it on him at the moment but It’s a coin toss between him and Salah as I kept him last week

Iused2likebusts · 25-11-2020 11:19pm

With who liverpool currently have fit Jota has to start. The only midfielders available are wijnaldum and Jones as Milner will be needed at RB and fabinho at CB. They will have to play 4231 with firmino in the midfield 3 or the same set up they went with against City.

Dearg81 · 25-11-2020 11:33pm

Iused2likebusts wrote: »

With who liverpool currently have fit Jota has to start. The only midfielders available are wijnaldum and Jones as Milner will be needed at RB and fabinho at CB. They will have to play 4231 with firmino in the midfield 3 or the same set up they went with against City.

Yea I don't see Jota being benched in the league in the short term, he's played his way into the team for now. He was a streaky type of player at Wolves but he's on fire at the moment.

Trouser Snake · 25-11-2020 11:49pm

All valid points in fairness. Still think Klopp will revert to his front three as a default but yeah rotation is going to be the key.

Chesty08 · 26-11-2020 12:15am

Can’t decide still between Werner - Vardy or Bruno to Sterling.

Could really end up -4 with both

greedygoblin · 26-11-2020 12:46am

Chesty08 wrote: »

Can’t decide still between Werner - Vardy or Bruno to Sterling.

Could really end up -4 with both

That's my exact dilemma too. Man City's recent record against Burnley is really good. Leicester have some nice fixtures too coming up & Vardy should be central to whatever they do.

The trouble with the 2 players we're ditching though is they could score big too...

Iused2likebusts · 26-11-2020 9:19am

I've 3 options for this week
1 Salah capt , foden , rashford and bank transfer
2 Salah capt, Jota, rashford would be selling foden for Jota.
3 salah, foden and sterling capt would be selling rashford for sterling.
I'm. 1 short on rashford to Kdb.
Any opinions.

Shedite27 · 26-11-2020 10:16am

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

That is a really good response, however there is a massive upside with Jota. Even if not playing he is first off the bench for Liverpool and at 6.6. is a massive enabler.

When you call him an "enabler", do you mean to us him instead of Salah/Mane? At the moment he's up against Zaha/Grealish for a spot in my team at the moment

Shedite27 · 26-11-2020 10:18am

Trouser Snake wrote: »

All valid points in fairness. Still think Klopp will revert to his front three as a default but yeah rotation is going to be the key.

He had his front 3 available V City a few weeks back and Jota still got in, he played all 4. He took the Keita/Fabinho spot by the looks of it

Cartman78 · 26-11-2020 10:34am

Getting less certain what to do as the week has gone on....

Dunno whether just to reverse last week's move and get Salah back in for Bruno?

Or keep Bruno and get Jota in for Zaha (am going to get rid of Zaha either way....feel very lucky to have got points from him at all.

Also need to make a defensive change - can afford to upgrade Mitchell to anyone...Dias and Cancelo the obvious options.

Will mean no Vardy or KDB/Sterling but can't have them all i suppose

Tandey · 26-11-2020 11:05am

Anyone thinking of going in on KDB? Great couple of fixtures upcoming.

Ginger n Lemon · 26-11-2020 11:29am

Cartman78 wrote: »

Getting less certain what to do as the week has gone on....

Dunno whether just to reverse last week's move and get Salah back in for Bruno?

Or keep Bruno and get Jota in for Zaha (am going to get rid of Zaha either way....feel very lucky to have got points from him at all.

Also need to make a defensive change - can afford to upgrade Mitchell to anyone...Dias and Cancelo the obvious options.

Will mean no Vardy or KDB/Sterling but can't have them all i suppose

Same here. For some reason this is a very difficult week for transfers as minefields all over (Vardy could go berserk, KDB could go berserk, Salah could go berserk).

I ll get Ziyech for Zaha if confirmed he is out tomorrow (apprtnly Spurs concede a lot from set pieces, and Ziyech takes his fair share of corners, free kicks). Alderwiereld out also suggests Spurs defence is weaker, Chelsea then play Leeds who just do not defend very well at all.

Going to captain Bruno and hope for the best.

eh i dunno · 26-11-2020 11:43am

Any must haves for a free hit this week? Vardy, KDB look essential but is there any other must haves? Was thinking of three West brom defenders at home to sheff utd. Be cheap to free up cash for attackers

Shanotheslayer · 26-11-2020 12:03pm

Mahrez only playing 15 mins means I'll get him in.

Zaha - Mahrez
Adams - Vardy

Grealish dropped to the bench!

Ace2007 · 26-11-2020 12:08pm

I really feel that Vardy is a trap, he's either on fire or very cold, half his goals this season have come from the penalty spot. He can go large parts of the game without touching the ball - for instance in the 8 games he's played he has passed the ball 90 times - now compare that with pretty much anybody - take watkins for example - he has 191 passes in the same amount of games, Kane has 228 (in 9 games).

I'm really tempted to sell him for those reason, and also to finally give in and get Bruno, but do i just go with the flow and keep him for this big haul against Fulham?

I know some folk use the xG stats etc, but are the xG stats available before the game, i just don't see them on the website: https://understat.com/

The website seems to be very much retrospective stats, and not prospective - or am i not looking in the right place - for instance what is Vardy's expected goals v Fulham?

Ginger n Lemon · 26-11-2020 12:11pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

I really feel that Vardy is a trap, he's either on fire or very cold, half his goals this season have come from the penalty spot. He can go large parts of the game without touching the ball - for instance in the 8 games he's played he has passed the ball 90 times - now compare that with pretty much anybody - take watkins for example - he has 191 passes in the same amount of games, Kane has 228 (in 9 games).

I'm really tempted to sell him for those reason, and also to finally give in and get Bruno, but do i just go with the flow and keep him for this big haul against Fulham?

I know some folk use the xG stats etc, but are the xG stats available before the game, i just don't see them on the website: https://understat.com/

The website seems to be very much retrospective stats, and not prospective - or am i not looking in the right place - for instance what is Vardy's expected goals v Fulham?

I heard Vardys xgoals without penalties are very low. You are right and this is the dilemma I have as to do I keep Kane and captain Bruno or sell kane get Vardy and captain Vardy, but that is based purely on Fulham being poor rather than Vardy playing spectacular.

Having said that I do think if Castagne starts v Fulham then Vardy will get a lot of joy in terms of having ball crossed to him from the right. (if Castagne and Pereira start then Vardy does look much better in terms of chances)

Shanotheslayer · 26-11-2020 12:15pm

I think what swayed me is how bad Fulham are defensively that the likelihood of Leicester getting a penalty is quite high

ThunbergsAreGo · 26-11-2020 12:16pm

Tandey wrote: »

Anyone thinking of going in on KDB? Great couple of fixtures upcoming.

Did it last night

Ziyech/Son to Jota/KDB

Languishing at 2.2m so need to take some risks and KDB/Salah gives you

Burnely, Fulham, Fulham, WBA, Palace, WBA as captaincy options

Father Hernandez · 26-11-2020 12:17pm

I really want KDB as feel they've ready to explode anytime soon starting with Burnley at the weekend. He has looked good and been unlucky, could have had a haul easily IMO. Last couple weeks, things have gone right for me so I'm trusting myself on this one.

Options are
Bruno > KDB - no hit
I brought Bruno in only last week for the WBA game with the intention to swap to KDB. Feel if United score, Bruno scores really.

Son > KDB
Zaha > Jota (-4 - I have to take a hit as don't have enough Son to KDB)
Feels like madness getting rid of joint highest scoring payer in the game but I feel his PPG isn't sustainable. Own Kane already who I feel will outscore Son in the long run.

Is it a bit sideways or best to wait until next week? Please don't say yes

ThunbergsAreGo · 26-11-2020 12:23pm

Father Hernandez wrote: »

I really want KDB as feel they've ready to explode anytime soon starting with Burnley at the weekend. He has looked good and been unlucky, could have had a haul easily IMO. Last couple weeks, things have gone right for me so I'm trusting myself on this one.

Options are
Bruno > KDB - no hit
I brought Bruno in only last week for the WBA game with the intention to swap to KDB. Feel if United score, Bruno scores really.

Son > KDB
Zaha > Jota (-4 - I have to take a hit as don't have enough Son to KDB)
Feels like madness getting rid of joint highest scoring payer in the game but I feel his PPG isn't sustainable. Own Kane already who I feel will outscore Son in the long run.

Is it a bit sideways or best to wait until next week? Please don't say yes

Go with the minus 4, you are moving to two teams with the best fixtures coming

Cartman78 · 26-11-2020 12:25pm

Actually the last couple of posts have thrown up a couple of more options/conundrums...

Didn't realise I have the funds for Adams to Vardy...

Could just do that and hope that Zaha recovers and Taylor performs more miracles for Burnley.

Or take a hit to bring in Jota or Dias...mmmnnn

Shedite27 · 26-11-2020 12:29pm

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Having said that I do think if Castagne starts v Fulham then Vardy will get a lot of joy in terms of having ball crossed to him from the right. (if Castagne and Pereira start then Vardy does look much better in terms of chances)

I'll be keeping an eye on these two, they're the new TAA and Robbo once their back 4 is back in place.

siblers · 26-11-2020 1:02pm

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Mahrez only playing 15 mins means I'll get him in.

Zaha - Mahrez
Adams - Vardy

Grealish dropped to the bench!

Bit surprised by this. Mahrez has been awful. He has blanked every gw apart from gw2. Although he didn't play in 3 gws to be fair

Morzadec · 26-11-2020 1:17pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

I really feel that Vardy is a trap, he's either on fire or very cold, half his goals this season have come from the penalty spot. He can go large parts of the game without touching the ball - for instance in the 8 games he's played he has passed the ball 90 times - now compare that with pretty much anybody - take watkins for example - he has 191 passes in the same amount of games, Kane has 228 (in 9 games).

I'm really tempted to sell him for those reason, and also to finally give in and get Bruno, but do i just go with the flow and keep him for this big haul against Fulham?

I know some folk use the xG stats etc, but are the xG stats available before the game, i just don't see them on the website: https://understat.com/

The website seems to be very much retrospective stats, and not prospective - or am i not looking in the right place - for instance what is Vardy's expected goals v Fulham?

Xg is always retrospective - it looks at the shots taken during a match, so by definition it can't be predictive.

You could look at things like bookies odds etc... to try and make a forecast before a match, but I don't love doing this. Would more so look at xG from past games to try to infer future performance (i.e. is a player getting lucky/unlucky?). But it's good to know a little about the player too - for example Vardy tends to often overperform his xG (so a low xG maybe should be taken with a pinch of salt). Whereas let's say Firmino and Jesus have underperformed quite badly the last 3 seasons so a high xG for them shouldn't neccessarily have us rushing to get them in.

Another player who has half their goals from penalties this year interestingly is Salah. Not as high in the Xg/Xa as usual if you take out his pens.

I feel like pens might be drying up just a bit. They've tightened the handball rule a bit to eliminate the more ridiculous ones that were being given, and there's been the odd debatable "soft" pen which seemed to be given a lot at the start of the season and isn't been given now (e.g. Bruno's on WBA last week)

Ace2007 · 26-11-2020 1:24pm

Morzadec wrote: »

Xg is always retrospective - it looks at the shots taken during a match, so by definition it can't be predictive.

Thanks for that, so it's expected based on what's happened in said match as oppose to what we expect will happen, i.e. we expect Vardy to do well, but if Vardy doesn't take a shot in the game, then he should be in line with his xG.

Learning something new everyday

Ginger n Lemon · 26-11-2020 1:41pm

Wilson confirmed to play

https://twitter.com/NUFC/status/1331920392156491777?utm_source=www.premierleague.com&utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=link

thankfully.

Now only worried about Zaha. Lascelles is unlikely to feature so if Zaha does play Newcastle defence will be leaky

Markx · 26-11-2020 2:14pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

Thanks for that, so it's expected based on what's happened in said match as oppose to what we expect will happen, i.e. we expect Vardy to do well, but if Vardy doesn't take a shot in the game, then he should be in line with his xG.

Learning something new everyday

It's what we could have expected Vardy to score prior to the match had we known in advance what shots he would have.

That expectation is based on an averaging of all prior shots in that situation by all players.

The xg of any penalty is around 0.75 to 0.8 before it's kicked regardless of taker, for example.

Morzadec · 26-11-2020 2:14pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

Thanks for that, so it's expected based on what's happened in said match as oppose to what we expect will happen, i.e. we expect Vardy to do well, but if Vardy doesn't take a shot in the game, then he should be in line with his xG.

Learning something new everyday

Yeah it can be very helpful for spotting players going a bit under the radar, or players who are being overrated based on short term hauls. And it's a good shortcut if you don't have time to watch all the matches/highlights and also removes any biases/mistake you might have had when appraising a match.

But you also have to colour it with your own knowledge and interpretations too. like someone who is good at long shots is probably always going to have a lower xG than what they actually produce - for example Bruno has scored 7 league goals that were not penalties since joining United, but his NPxG is just under 4. A crude reading of the stats might lead you to think "Bruno is overperfomring xG, he can't keep it up", but if you know about the player you might say "actually this is to be expected because his shooting is so good, maybe he can".

Shedite27 · 26-11-2020 2:16pm

This will be an interesting week for a Captain Thread. No outstanding candidate (at least among the highly owned players)

callaway92 · 26-11-2020 2:19pm

Ace2007 wrote: »

Thanks for that, so it's expected based on what's happened in said match as oppose to what we expect will happen, i.e. we expect Vardy to do well, but if Vardy doesn't take a shot in the game, then he should be in line with his xG.

Learning something new everyday

You have to take a shot to get xG

You have to provide a key pass/assist to get xA

xG is based on XY shot location (and other circumstances depending on the data provider) from hundreds of thousands of shots from each location that were coded with an XY

Gameweek 10 - Transfer Thread

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