Gameweek 10 - Transfer Thread

With who liverpool currently have fit Jota has to start. The only midfielders available are wijnaldum and Jones as Milner will be needed at RB and fabinho at CB. They will have to play 4231 with firmino in the midfield 3 or the same set up they went with against City.

Chesty08 wrote: »

Can’t decide still between Werner - Vardy or Bruno to Sterling.

Could really end up -4 with both

That's my exact dilemma too. Man City's recent record against Burnley is really good. Leicester have some nice fixtures too coming up & Vardy should be central to whatever they do.

The trouble with the 2 players we're ditching though is they could score big too...

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

That is a really good response, however there is a massive upside with Jota. Even if not playing he is first off the bench for Liverpool and at 6.6. is a massive enabler.

When you call him an "enabler", do you mean to us him instead of Salah/Mane? At the moment he's up against Zaha/Grealish for a spot in my team at the moment

Getting less certain what to do as the week has gone on....

Dunno whether just to reverse last week's move and get Salah back in for Bruno?

Or keep Bruno and get Jota in for Zaha (am going to get rid of Zaha either way....feel very lucky to have got points from him at all.

Also need to make a defensive change - can afford to upgrade Mitchell to anyone...Dias and Cancelo the obvious options.

Will mean no Vardy or KDB/Sterling but can't have them all i suppose

Cartman78 wrote: »

Getting less certain what to do as the week has gone on....

Dunno whether just to reverse last week's move and get Salah back in for Bruno?

Or keep Bruno and get Jota in for Zaha (am going to get rid of Zaha either way....feel very lucky to have got points from him at all.

Also need to make a defensive change - can afford to upgrade Mitchell to anyone...Dias and Cancelo the obvious options.

Will mean no Vardy or KDB/Sterling but can't have them all i suppose

Same here. For some reason this is a very difficult week for transfers as minefields all over (Vardy could go berserk, KDB could go berserk, Salah could go berserk).

I ll get Ziyech for Zaha if confirmed he is out tomorrow (apprtnly Spurs concede a lot from set pieces, and Ziyech takes his fair share of corners, free kicks). Alderwiereld out also suggests Spurs defence is weaker, Chelsea then play Leeds who just do not defend very well at all.

Going to captain Bruno and hope for the best.

Mahrez only playing 15 mins means I'll get him in.

Zaha - Mahrez
Adams - Vardy


Grealish dropped to the bench!

Ace2007 wrote: »

I really feel that Vardy is a trap, he's either on fire or very cold, half his goals this season have come from the penalty spot. He can go large parts of the game without touching the ball - for instance in the 8 games he's played he has passed the ball 90 times - now compare that with pretty much anybody - take watkins for example - he has 191 passes in the same amount of games, Kane has 228 (in 9 games).

I'm really tempted to sell him for those reason, and also to finally give in and get Bruno, but do i just go with the flow and keep him for this big haul against Fulham?

I know some folk use the xG stats etc, but are the xG stats available before the game, i just don't see them on the website: https://understat.com/

The website seems to be very much retrospective stats, and not prospective - or am i not looking in the right place - for instance what is Vardy's expected goals v Fulham?

I heard Vardys xgoals without penalties are very low. You are right and this is the dilemma I have as to do I keep Kane and captain Bruno or sell kane get Vardy and captain Vardy, but that is based purely on Fulham being poor rather than Vardy playing spectacular.

Having said that I do think if Castagne starts v Fulham then Vardy will get a lot of joy in terms of having ball crossed to him from the right. (if Castagne and Pereira start then Vardy does look much better in terms of chances)

Tandey wrote: »

Anyone thinking of going in on KDB? Great couple of fixtures upcoming.

Did it last night

Ziyech/Son to Jota/KDB

Languishing at 2.2m so need to take some risks and KDB/Salah gives you

Burnely, Fulham, Fulham, WBA, Palace, WBA as captaincy options

Father Hernandez wrote: »

I really want KDB as feel they've ready to explode anytime soon starting with Burnley at the weekend. He has looked good and been unlucky, could have had a haul easily IMO. Last couple weeks, things have gone right for me so I'm trusting myself on this one.

Options are
Bruno > KDB - no hit
I brought Bruno in only last week for the WBA game with the intention to swap to KDB. Feel if United score, Bruno scores really.

Son > KDB
Zaha > Jota (-4 - I have to take a hit as don't have enough Son to KDB)
Feels like madness getting rid of joint highest scoring payer in the game but I feel his PPG isn't sustainable. Own Kane already who I feel will outscore Son in the long run.

Is it a bit sideways or best to wait until next week? Please don't say yes

Go with the minus 4, you are moving to two teams with the best fixtures coming

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Having said that I do think if Castagne starts v Fulham then Vardy will get a lot of joy in terms of having ball crossed to him from the right. (if Castagne and Pereira start then Vardy does look much better in terms of chances)

I'll be keeping an eye on these two, they're the new TAA and Robbo once their back 4 is back in place.

Ace2007 wrote: »

I really feel that Vardy is a trap, he's either on fire or very cold, half his goals this season have come from the penalty spot. He can go large parts of the game without touching the ball - for instance in the 8 games he's played he has passed the ball 90 times - now compare that with pretty much anybody - take watkins for example - he has 191 passes in the same amount of games, Kane has 228 (in 9 games).

I'm really tempted to sell him for those reason, and also to finally give in and get Bruno, but do i just go with the flow and keep him for this big haul against Fulham?

I know some folk use the xG stats etc, but are the xG stats available before the game, i just don't see them on the website: https://understat.com/

The website seems to be very much retrospective stats, and not prospective - or am i not looking in the right place - for instance what is Vardy's expected goals v Fulham?

Xg is always retrospective - it looks at the shots taken during a match, so by definition it can't be predictive.

You could look at things like bookies odds etc... to try and make a forecast before a match, but I don't love doing this. Would more so look at xG from past games to try to infer future performance (i.e. is a player getting lucky/unlucky?). But it's good to know a little about the player too - for example Vardy tends to often overperform his xG (so a low xG maybe should be taken with a pinch of salt). Whereas let's say Firmino and Jesus have underperformed quite badly the last 3 seasons so a high xG for them shouldn't neccessarily have us rushing to get them in.

Another player who has half their goals from penalties this year interestingly is Salah. Not as high in the Xg/Xa as usual if you take out his pens.

I feel like pens might be drying up just a bit. They've tightened the handball rule a bit to eliminate the more ridiculous ones that were being given, and there's been the odd debatable "soft" pen which seemed to be given a lot at the start of the season and isn't been given now (e.g. Bruno's on WBA last week)

Wilson confirmed to play

https://twitter.com/NUFC/status/1331920392156491777?utm_source=www.premierleague.com&utm_campaign=website&utm_medium=link

thankfully.

Now only worried about Zaha. Lascelles is unlikely to feature so if Zaha does play Newcastle defence will be leaky

Ace2007 wrote: »

Thanks for that, so it's expected based on what's happened in said match as oppose to what we expect will happen, i.e. we expect Vardy to do well, but if Vardy doesn't take a shot in the game, then he should be in line with his xG.

Learning something new everyday

Yeah it can be very helpful for spotting players going a bit under the radar, or players who are being overrated based on short term hauls. And it's a good shortcut if you don't have time to watch all the matches/highlights and also removes any biases/mistake you might have had when appraising a match.

But you also have to colour it with your own knowledge and interpretations too. like someone who is good at long shots is probably always going to have a lower xG than what they actually produce - for example Bruno has scored 7 league goals that were not penalties since joining United, but his NPxG is just under 4. A crude reading of the stats might lead you to think "Bruno is overperfomring xG, he can't keep it up", but if you know about the player you might say "actually this is to be expected because his shooting is so good, maybe he can".