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Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #7622
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Spudman_20000 wrote: »
    And anyone that thinks we'll ever go back to level 5, and the economic suicide that would be, is delusional too.
    People were called delusional at the end of August for predicting a return to lockdown too. I'd agree there won't be one before Christmas, mind.


  • #7623
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Peter Flynt wrote: »
    We are averaging 345 cases per day (over the past seven days) after 33 days of the country effectively shut down at level 5.

    On September 1st, when schools were fully reopened, we were averaging 199 cases per day (over the previous 7 days from Aug 25-31) with a virtually fully functioning economy

    Great news indeed.

    So much for your "concrete evidence".


    Schools open September - Numbers rising
    Schools open October - cases peak and start falling
    Schools open November - cases falling

    Has anything else changed relative to September and the start of October?


  • #7624
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    Ficheall wrote: »
    People were called delusional at the end of August for predicting a return to lockdown too. I'd agree there won't be one before Christmas, mind.

    No, really?


  • #7625
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,215 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    I would assess the chances of a return to level 5 before Christmas as: unlikely.


  • #7626
    SusanC10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭SusanC10


    Personally, I think that the Christmas Season will cause a surge in cases and in turn hospitalizations which will lead to another Level 5 in mid to late January until they manage to roll out the Vaccine.

    Just my opinion.


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  • #7627
    MOR316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,249 ✭✭✭MOR316


    amadangomor wrote: »
    This is a sad reflection on you I'm afraid. Point scoring at a time like this. Are you really insecure?

    (Agree that the Grandpa by the window thing is ridiculous)

    Perhaps you misunderstand my point...

    Point scoring suggests I am using these quotes as arguements against their advice and guidelines. Far from it!

    I'm not point scoring, at all! I am merely saying out that they are ridiculous things to come out with and that I will get mileage out of these things in the future, just like you would in everyday life, with people you know actually, if you were honest with yourself

    For example, if a family member or friend has a cold next Christmas, I can reference the gravy boat quote or tell them to go sit by the window, as a source of amusement to lighten the mood

    Hopefully this has clarified things for you.

    I will await your apology. Thanking you :)


  • #7628
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,184 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Micheal Lehane on RTE there saying inter-county restrictions could be allowed few days before Christmas and maybe up to the new year. Guess like all guidelines it's personal responsibility but you'd think concentrating travel to specific travel window while trains and buses are at reduced capacity only increases how busy those services are.

    Doubt they will have checkpoints either side anyways.


  • #7629
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Arghus wrote: »
    I would assess the chances of a return to level 5 before Christmas as: unlikely.

    Wont happen. Simply based on lag, there won't be an impact of moving to level 3 next week until the week before Christmas, week bringing 14th.

    Cases will probably continue to fall until around Christmas and then we see whatever impact there's been.


  • #7630
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,215 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    SusanC10 wrote: »
    Personally, I think that the Christmas Season will cause a surge in cases and in turn hospitalizations which will lead to another Level 5 in mid to late January until they manage to roll out the Vaccine.

    Just my opinion.

    I think your opinion is on the money, but lets hope that logic of yours is faulty right!


  • #7631
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I dont know enough about economics - but is this really a massive factor? When I've asked in the past, people shout back "Thirty Billion", "Depression", etc..

    But I recall in March when we extended lockdown from 3 weeks to 5 weeks, it was basically said "that's it, lots of pubs won't open ever again". As time went by, this has been repeated, and lots of pubs in Dublin havent opened at all since March.

    I understand some have gone to the wall at this stage, but the commentary always seems to be they're hanging on by fingernails. I'm not saying they're having a perfect aul time, and any opening would be welcomed by them, but with an end in sight (vaccine) whats an extra couple of months if they've survived this long vs the alternative?

    This isnt meant to be a wind-up, I'd actually like to understand it some more. I got pretty anxious in March that the knock on effects from people out of work would be catastrophic, and perhaps we're somewhat shored up by PUP and we wont feel it until next year or even later, in which case, what does that look like?

    Lots of businesses have used up whatever savings the had to survive the first lockdown

    They still had fixed costs like mortgages

    A lot of team spent significant money upgrading facilities to comply with the covid regulations

    Some were able to open briefly then shut again after a few weeks

    One pub near moms homeplace that was opened in the 1940s has permanently closed

    6 jobs gone in a small rural area and also the social outlet for many

    Another pub near my grandparents needs a big christmas as January and February are usually very quiet months

    12 staff in that one

    That's only 2 examples but instead of the exchequer getting 18 people paying wages you more than likely will be supporting 18 on PUP

    1 local takeaway actually increased staff as they were supplying the food to the local pubs

    That will be all gone if the Indo report is to be believed

    Losses for both the pub and the takeaway

    Many many pubs won't have their own kitchens so will be forced to stat closed thanks to the government

    A cafe in a prime location in my town shut down in the first lockdown due to the lack of business vs their rent

    These would be replicated up and down the country

    Ok a vaccine is on the way but definitely many businesses can't afford to wait for it and not trade

    Level 5 costs €500m in PUP every two weeks not to mind the lost income


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  • #7632
    Peter Flynt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Schools open September - Numbers rising
    Schools open October - cases peak and start falling
    Schools open November - cases falling

    Has anything else changed relative to September and the start of October?

    It's the rate of the increase that matters and the rate dramatically increased when schools were opened.

    The rate reduced in the week after schools were closed for the mid term break and then rose again.


  • #7633
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Micheal Lehane on RTE there saying inter-county restrictions could be allowed few days before Christmas and maybe up to the new year. Guess like all guidelines it's personal responsibility but you'd think concentrating travel to specific travel window while trains and buses are at reduced capacity only increases how busy those services are.

    Doubt they will have checkpoints either side anyways.

    Doubt you'll see many of them after next week being realistic


  • #7634
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Micheal Lehane on RTE there saying inter-county restrictions could be allowed few days before Christmas and maybe up to the new year. Guess like all guidelines it's personal responsibility but you'd think concentrating travel to specific travel window while trains and buses are at reduced capacity only increases how busy those services are.

    Doubt they will have checkpoints either side anyways.

    You would think it would have to be up to new year as people will ignore the rules if they try to revert inbetween Christmas and New Years


  • #7635
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Reads like an excerpt from Peig, Krusty. :)


  • #7636
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    Lots of businesses have used up whatever savings the had to survive the first lockdown

    They still had fixed costs like mortgages

    A lot of team spent significant money upgrading facilities to comply with the covid regulations

    Some were able to open briefly then shut again after a few weeks

    One pub near moms homeplace that was opened in the 1940s has permanently closed

    6 jobs gone in a small rural area and also the social outlet for many

    Another pub near my grandparents needs a big christmas as January and February are usually very quiet months

    12 staff in that one

    That's only 2 examples but instead of the exchequer getting 18 people paying wages you more than likely will be supporting 18 on PUP

    1 local takeaway actually increased staff as they were supplying the food to the local pubs

    That will be all gone if the Indo report is to be believed

    Losses for both the pub and the takeaway

    Many many pubs won't have their own kitchens so will be forced to stat closed thanks to the government

    A cafe in a prime location in my town shut down in the first lockdown due to the lack of business vs their rent

    These would be replicated up and down the country

    Ok a vaccine is on the way but definitely many businesses can't afford to wait for it and not trade

    Level 5 costs €500m in PUP every two weeks not to mind the lost income

    Thanks for that, I guess I'm surprised there are any left at all at this stage tbh. The talk in March seemed to be that the knife edge was far sharper. Still sharp all the same, I'm not saying it's a walk in the park.

    I'd say the biggest kick in the teeth for these guys would have been spending lots of money to follow the regulations as best you can, after months of no income, only to be shut a couple of weeks later.


  • #7637
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Peter Flynt wrote: »
    It's the rate of the increase that matters and the rate dramatically increased when schools were opened.

    The rate reduced in the week after schools were closed for the mid term break and then rose again.

    The rate increase actually lines up with the midterm break so that logic is a little off.

    Rate of infection was falling prior to the midterm break, not long after it ended it increased again, so something happened over the midterm time period


  • #7638
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Reads like an excerpt from Peig, Krusty. :)

    My Irish was never up to standard to read that lol


  • #7639
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Comments from Dr Scally are a absolute disgrace.


  • #7640
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,184 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    You would think it would have to be up to new year as people will ignore the rules if they try to revert inbetween Christmas and New Years

    I was thinking it was short as it tbh. This year with people not being able to go abroad or even holiday here that much say there's a fair few who will be taking decent time off work including visiting family in other part of country. Especially if people have to use up leave before the end of the year.


  • #7641
    What Username Guidelines
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,139 ✭✭✭What Username Guidelines


    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1331277632802074626?s=20


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  • #7642
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    I'd say the biggest kick in the teeth for these guys would have been spending lots of money to follow the regulations as best you can, after months of no income, only to be shut a couple of weeks later.

    100%

    Throwing money away that many didn't have in the first place

    My local spent a significant sum to upgrade yet they got less than a month open even with the 15 allowed outdoor level three


  • #7643
    Peter Flynt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,135 ✭✭✭Peter Flynt


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    The rate increase actually lines up with the midterm break so that logic is a little off.

    Rate of infection was falling prior to the midterm break, not long after it ended it increased again, so something happened over the midterm time period

    It wasn't falling.

    We were averaging a 1000+ cases per day.
    Level 5 began the day before the mid term break.

    Let's stick to the facts and not stuff you've made up in your head.


  • #7644
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Eod100 wrote: »
    I was thinking it was short as it tbh. This year with people not being able to go abroad or even holiday here that much say there's a fair few who will be taking decent time off work including visiting family in other part of country. Especially if people have to use up leave before the end of the year.

    Yes that's true

    Staying inside your county up until then is hard for anyone who has friends, family, partners in other counties


  • #7645
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,450 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1331277632802074626?s=20

    This is what I was posting about recently. Only been signed in now despite being announced before level 5.

    Taken nearly 6 weeks to get this and level 5 just about to end. Couldn't make it up


  • #7646
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1331277632802074626?s=20
    Chances of those being enforced.......


  • #7647
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,184 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    This is what I was posting about recently. Only been signed in now despite being announced before level 5.

    Taken nearly 6 weeks to get this and level 5 just about to end. Couldn't make it up

    And didn't the mask and travel fines already exist? So it's really just the events one they've added


  • #7648
    Eivor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 168 ✭✭Eivor


    What Username Guidelines wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/christinafinn8/status/1331277632802074626?s=20

    More regulations that will not be enforced or ignored completely.


  • #7649
    Eod100
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,184 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Comments from Dr Scally are a absolute disgrace.

    What did he say?


  • #7650
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    BringBackMick wrote: »
    Comments from Dr Scally are a absolute disgrace.

    What's he saying now?


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  • #7651
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    Something the lines of 'Is it worth meeting up with your relatives for Christmas if you're going to be burying them in the new year'


This discussion has been closed.
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