COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Hmmzis · 23-11-2020 01:24PM

eigrod wrote: »

Taoiseach talking down at Dublin Port right now. Vaccine distribution strategy expected by Dec 11.

https://twitter.com/smurphytv/status/1330847577642766336?s=21

He's actually right, since there are now 3 vaccines showing good to amazing efficacy results, it's more important than before to try and keep as many people safe as possible.

eigrod · 23-11-2020 01:27PM

Are all 3 that have announced positive results recently, administered via a needle in the arm (x 2) ?

MerlinSouthDub · 23-11-2020 01:27PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

Looking at ourselves here in Ireland what do we think now? Population of just under 5 m..... Surely it's not unreasonable to think that we could all be vaccinated by summer time? Or am I way off??

We will never all be vaccinated. But the more people we vaccinate, the less the impact of the virus will be. It will be a somewhat gradual process. It is, I think, reasonable to expect that by summer time, we will have enough people vaccinated to ensure our lives are largely back to normal (perhaps still some restrictions on large gatherings)

MerlinSouthDub · 23-11-2020 01:30PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

He's actually right, since there are now 3 vaccines showing good to amazing efficacy results, it's more important than before to try and keep as many people safe as possible.

Absolutely. I was (wrongly) more on the side of easing restrictions. But when vaccine distribution is now imminent, it makes zero sense to allow the virus to spread, costing lives completely unnecessarily. Hopefully, we will be able to give people some certainty on timing of vaccine rollout, and a return to near-normality - I think that would make it much easier for people to accept restrictions.

Russman · 23-11-2020 01:35PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

Looking at ourselves here in Ireland what do we think now? Population of just under 5 m..... Surely it's not unreasonable to think that we could all be vaccinated by summer time? Or am I way off??

Will under 18s (or under 12s for example) be getting vaccinated does anyone know ? I don't know what proportion of our population is under that age, but if they're not getting it, it would reduce the 5m overall number significantly.

leahyl · 23-11-2020 01:43PM

Russman wrote: »

Will under 18s (or under 12s for example) be getting vaccinated does anyone know ? I don't know what proportion of our population is under that age, but if they're not getting it, it would reduce the 5m overall number significantly.

This is useful for population of different age groups - just looked it up
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cp3oy/cp3/agr/

JDD · 23-11-2020 01:45PM

Is there any indication of how long immunity will last for, for each of the three leading candidates? Is it six months, a year, two years? Do we even know yet?

Russman · 23-11-2020 01:58PM

hmmm wrote: »

AstraZeneca - 200 million doses by end of 2020, 700 million by end of Q1 2021.

Do we have any idea how much of that will be for the EU ?

Edit: Just thinking it through, I mean, even if the EU only got 30% of it, that's 60 million doses this year. That would give us c600k doses, so 300k people, this year. That's huge !

Bursanc · 23-11-2020 02:01PM

eigrod wrote: »

Taoiseach talking down at Dublin Port right now. Vaccine distribution strategy expected by Dec 11.

Is this the date the plan will be made public or are they just expecting to finalise it then? Because if it's only finalised then it will take more time after this to put the plans in place, whereas the US/UK etc. are planning to start vaccinating on the 10th-12th December (or maybe even before that?), which I hoped we would be too

drunkmonkey · 23-11-2020 02:01PM

Russman wrote: »

Will under 18s (or under 12s for example) be getting vaccinated does anyone know ? I don't know what proportion of our population is under that age, but if they're not getting it, it would reduce the 5m overall number significantly.

Only 20% of the under 12's have gotten the flu jab so there considering rolling it out to teenagers before the vaccines start to expire in January.
I thought uptake would have been higher considering all the marketing done around it, we had letters from the Schools and Creche as well as different material from the HSE it was a big push.
I don't know if you can read anything into it, people might not have bothered as there's no flu this year.

Roger_007 · 23-11-2020 02:02PM

JDD wrote: »

Is there any indication of how long immunity will last for, for each of the three leading candidates? Is it six months, a year, two years? Do we even know yet?

Nobody knows.
One of the reasons why it normally takes a long time to develop a vaccine is because it takes a long time to observe how long immunity might last or what other long term effects might emerge.
No matter how much resources you throw at drug/vaccine development, the one thing you cannot speed up is time.
The speed at which the various vaccines have been developed is impressive and also frightening at the same time. No long term studies can have been done because the vaccines have only been in trials for a few months at most.
We are been asked to put enormous trust in the pharmaceutical industry and a multitude of third party manufacturers.
I hope it all goes well.

stephenjmcd · 23-11-2020 02:03PM

Russman wrote: »

Do we have any idea how much of that will be for the EU ?

Edit: Just thinking it through, I mean, even if the EU only got 30% of it, that's 60 million doses this year. That would give us c600k doses, so 300k people, this year. That's huge !

Irelands complete allocation of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine from the EU is just over 4 million

23-11-2020 02:15PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Irelands complete allocation of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine from the EU is just over 4 million

Just to note I don't think the EU allocation agreement is based purely on population size, they will be making allowances based on the demographics of the country. So Italy for example might get a slightly larger share than just based on their population as they have a higher proportion of elderly people than most other countries in the EU.

Cordell · 23-11-2020 02:15PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I can foresee a thriving industry in bogus vaccine certs.

Why pay for the bogus cert and risk criminal proceedings and/or being blacklisted by the airline when you can get the real thing for free?

iguana · 23-11-2020 02:16PM

eigrod wrote: »

Taoiseach talking down at Dublin Port right now. Vaccine distribution strategy expected by Dec 11.

https://twitter.com/smurphytv/status/1330847577642766336?s=21

I wouldn't say that is talking it down. It's just good sense. We have 3 vaccines. But we haven't actually been vaccinated. So it's important to remember that while the end is in sight, the end isn't here. Right now we still need to keep distancing, wearing masks, practicing good hygiene, etc. To make sure that as few people possible die or suffer lasting damage before they can be vaccinated.

El Weirdo · 23-11-2020 02:21PM

iguana wrote: »

I wouldn't say that is talking it down.

No. He was down at Dublin Port talking about it.

Not talking it down at Dublin Port.

What Username Guidelines · 23-11-2020 02:24PM

opinionated3 wrote: »

Looking at ourselves here in Ireland what do we think now? Population of just under 5 m..... Surely it's not unreasonable to think that we could all be vaccinated by summer time? Or am I way off??

I believe the EU is distributing theirs pro rata, so it doesnt matter if your population is 1m or 50m, all countries will be hitting %'s of their population at the same time.

What Username Guidelines · 23-11-2020 02:30PM

Hmmzis wrote: »

He's actually right, since there are now 3 vaccines showing good to amazing efficacy results, it's more important than before to try and keep as many people safe as possible.

Absolutely - I was surprised by the attitude during the first lockdown (bread baking, #StayHome, etc) on social media, where anyone who could think more than a month ahead was asking "uh, but what then?"

That was very frustrating for me personally. I guess it worked, as lots of people stayed home. There wasn't a clear target or endgame defined at all. Even when we started to reopen, there were people counting down the days until we could have a pint as if that was the end of it all and life would be normal again.

But imagine if we have a re-run of the infamous "levels plan" press conference. With actual dates and milestones, whereby the public would know when each set of restrictions get lifted, it's relatively safe, and the likelihood of those being reimposed was miniscule.

It would be amazing.

mightyreds · 23-11-2020 02:30PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I can foresee a thriving industry in bogus vaccine certs.

I think they will have to go digital with it, I doubt we would get it right in this country but could see other countries when people are getting their vaccine will have to sign up with national ID number or something.

Thierry12 · 23-11-2020 02:42PM

lbj666 wrote: »

Ya i dont think this is going to be apples and apples comparison with the mRNA vaccines at all. Oxford has given more indication that the severity of the disease would be diminished, whiles its still vague/unclear with the mRNAs, although it should.
Didnt 1 of the 9 in the Pfizer trial group get a severe dose? same proportion as their placebo group?

If time wasn't of the essence authorities could mull over the data for another few months but they cant, while in retrospect the chosen option could prove not the best one. They will be deciding based present day evidence which has the best chance of ending up being the best approach, a few actuarial minds would come in handy.

Exactly

Being infected isn't a big deal.

Being sick is

Oxford had zero sick in trials, others did, that's massively positive

Like you say mRNA might be better at preventing infection but some will get sick

Oxford adenovirus you might get infected, but won't get sick

Science behind Oxford makes total sense too, the vaccine guarantess an immune response because it uses a chimpanzee vector that your body will have never seen before and when it see it, it fights back.

So it should work for everyone, unless your meeting sick chimpanzees in your spare time

tobefrank321 · 23-11-2020 02:46PM

Kind of strange the FDA vaccine group won't be meeting until Dec 11th to give EUA. Especially as its averaging 1500 deaths a day in the US and vaccinating for example over 80s is unlikely to cause them long term problems.

froog · 23-11-2020 02:51PM

3 vaccines on the verge of being approved in less than a year. amazing achievement.

Gael23 · 23-11-2020 02:56PM

eigrod wrote: »

Are all 3 that have announced positive results recently, administered via a needle in the arm (x 2) ?

One in each buttock I think.

What dosage are AZ recommending? Both regimes have very different efficacy
I suppose NPHET will still recommend restriction in perpetuity to protect those the vaccine won’t work for

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-11-2020 02:57PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Kind of strange the FDA vaccine group won't be meeting until Dec 11th to give EUA. Especially as its averaging 1500 deaths a day in the US and vaccinating for example over 80s is unlikely to cause them long term problems.

I'm assuming they have quiet a bit of data to review. They dont get a one page press release and have to say yay or nay based on that.

So they have a 2000 page submission of data. Decide it will take them 20 days to review and say let's meet then.

Water John · 23-11-2020 02:57PM

It will be interesting how the roll out of vaccines and the data involved intersects with the information Regulator. Just one of those side issues.

Stheno · 23-11-2020 03:03PM

Lovely interview here with one of the Irish scientists involved in the Oxford vaccine

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/oxford-vaccine-designer-i-ve-never-worked-so-hard-in-my-life-1.4416822?mode=amp

plodder · 23-11-2020 03:10PM

Gael23 wrote: »

One in each buttock I think.

Unlikely as it needs to go into muscle tissue and not much muscle to be found there. Upper arm more likely.

GeorgeBailey · 23-11-2020 03:10PM

We're on the verge of everyone from Ivor Cummins to Gerry Kileen becoming irrelevant (although I'm sure they'll have a few last outings). Exciting times.

lbj666 · 23-11-2020 03:12PM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

We're on the verge of everyone from Ivor Cummins to Gerry Kileen becoming irrelevant (although I'm sure they'll have a few last outings). Exciting times.

Since when was either of them ever relevant

ixoy · 23-11-2020 03:15PM

Stheno wrote: »

Lovely interview here with one of the Irish scientists involved in the Oxford vaccine

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/oxford-vaccine-designer-i-ve-never-worked-so-hard-in-my-life-1.4416822?mode=amp

Nice to see her address the 70% efficacy report too. RTE still doing a glass half empty on the headline, whereas most other news sources see it as more positive at this point (some having adjusted earlier headlines).

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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