Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

WoollyRedHat · 23-11-2020 11:50AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Interestingly Luke O'Neill said this morning that the mass testing in Liverpool which included testing of 167,000 people determined an asymptomatic infection rate of just 25%. This is significantly lower than what seemed like a consensus of 50% rate of asymptomatic infection that had been agreed on in most studies before.

This is great news, it means worldwide much less infections are being missed than was originally thought , and there are far fewer invisible speakers wandering about unbeknownst to anyone

There are big issues with UK screening programme with it's implementation, I would not trust the data
coming out of it, in one of the tests they're using in Liverpool instructions for use state that it should not be used on asymptomatic people.

Additionally, the National Screening Committee in the UK wasn't even consulted on it, it's Dominic Cummings brainchild... good article on it here-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/19/operation-moonshot-england-screening-covid-testing-liverpool

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-11-2020 12:03PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

So it's ok by you that they've waited until now to meet for the first time?

I dont know. What have they been doing since being appointed.

Is x on the panel because he knows about cold chain logistics. Is he doing a report on options for how Ireland can handle distribution.

Is y on the panel because he is good at studying medical data. Is she studying the information the vaccine makers provided to the regulators. Will she be ready with a report on which vaccine does better with different groups of people to determine vaccien strategy.

So on and so forth. When were they appointed? Are they starting to work when they meet for the first time? Have they started work already?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 23-11-2020 12:06PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Interestingly Luke O'Neill said this morning that the mass testing in Liverpool which included testing of 167,000 people determined an asymptomatic infection rate of just 25%. This is significantly lower than what seemed like a consensus of 50% rate of asymptomatic infection that had been agreed on in most studies before.

This is great news, it means worldwide much less infections are being missed than was originally thought , and there are far fewer invisible speakers wandering about unbeknownst to anyone

Or is that asymptomatic cases have a lower viral load. Those low viral load cases are missed by low quality quick tests used in liverpool and pcr would detect more asymptomatic cases.

I dont know. It would be an argument against those rapid tests being used commonly in Ireland though.

What Username Guidelines · 23-11-2020 12:54PM

seamus wrote: »

They could certainly have met sooner. But that's always been the case. A vaccine task group could have been set up in May, to get ahead of ourselves. But would it really have been of any benefit, except to be ready?
Being too prepared can be a problem - you end up having to review what you did initially to make sure it's still fit for purpose and the parameters haven't changed.

It's not like we have a warehouse full of vaccines that have arrived in Dublin Port and we're sitting down now to figure out what we do next.

There is time. In fact, there's plenty of time. The absolute earliest we can expect to see anything arrive here is the second half of December.

The vaccine will not arrive in one huge consignment ready to roll out to everyone, it will arrive in dribs and drabs.

The primary goal of the taskforce is to plan the order in which these consignments will be distributed. There is no need - at this stage anyway - to have to consider any major logistical challenges. Demand worldwide will be high, and until next Spring at the earliest we will not have access to quantities that will require pop-up vaccination centres and queues of people down the street waiting for their shot.

For the initial phase, it will be well within the capabilities of hospitals and local health centres to manage distribution.

I've just been doing more reading into this and realised there have been something like 700k flu vaccines administered this year, nay, just this season, via GPs and Pharmacies, without the help of the defence forces or additional personnel.

I think while this is truly massive, the vaccine roll out was far bigger in my head than in reality. Feeling a lot more confident about it now anyway

hmmm · 23-11-2020 01:21PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I've just been doing more reading into this and realised there have been something like 700k flu vaccines administered this year, nay, just this season, via GPs and Pharmacies, without the help of the defence forces or additional personnel.

I think while this is truly massive, the vaccine roll out was far bigger in my head than in reality. Feeling a lot more confident about it now anyway

It's not incredibly difficult, but it will be a logistical challenge and more difficult than the flu vaccine. They'll have to decided which groups get which vaccine and the vaccines will be arriving as they are made. They'll have to figure out how to identify and contact those groups. The nursing homes will be easy, but how do you vaccinate the older people who are not in a nursing home but might be relatively immobile? There's also issues with the Pfizer vaccine needing special freezers, and all the vaccines so far need two doses which will have to be tracked.

Stheno · 23-11-2020 01:26PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's not incredibly difficult, but it will be a logistical challenge and more difficult than the flu vaccine. They'll have to decided which groups get which vaccine and the vaccines will be arriving as they are made. They'll have to figure out how to identify and contact those groups. The nursing homes will be easy, but how do you vaccinate the older people who are not in a nursing home but might be relatively immobile? There's also issues with the Pfizer vaccine needing special freezers, and all the vaccines so far need two doses which will have to be tracked.

Haven't Pfizer built special suitcase type containers which hold 5000 doses and can be replenished with dry ice to help with the logistics though?

mountgomery burns · 23-11-2020 01:32PM

893bet wrote: »

Social distancing is hardly new as concept.

Some one is sick and the disease is contagious. They are kept away from the healthy.

Ye both have the definition of social distancing wrong. You're talking about quarantine.

Social distancing is people who have no reason to believe they are sick staying 2 metres from everyone for fear they might unknowingly be carrying an infection. As a concept in terms of global adoption, it is completely new to this year.

JDD · 23-11-2020 01:33PM

So if FDA/EMA approval is expected in mid-December, what will the upshot of vaccine approvals be on people's adherence to restrictions?

On the one hand, you could see an argument that one final push, with the finish line in sight, will mean that people will not mind so much having their lives curtailed, knowing that vaccines are ready to be distributed in February/March. After all, what is the point is accepting that X amount of people will die if they could just have the vaccine in three months and survive.

On the other hand, will people think "oh thank god, it's over. I can go back to my old life. Yes, the virus will surge over the next few weeks, but we'll be fine and everyone will have the vaccine in three months anyway". It's kind of a gross analogy, but it's like feeling very ill but keeping it together in the taxi home only to throw up the minute your eye sees the toilet - like seeing it played a trick on your mind, thinking you were there already.

hmmm · 23-11-2020 01:35PM

Stheno wrote: »

Haven't Pfizer built special suitcase type containers which hold 5000 doses and can be replenished with dry ice to help with the logistics though?

I believe so? I also presume something like this gets shipped in by plane. There's Brexit also so could be some trouble at the ports.

I'm sure if needs be the Defence forces can go pick it up, or the airlines have a few spare planes.

Russman · 23-11-2020 01:39PM

hmmm wrote: »

I believe so? I also presume something like this gets shipped in by plane. There's Brexit also so could be some trouble at the ports.

I'm sure if needs be the Defence forces can go pick it up, or the airlines have a few spare planes.

True.
At little more than 18" cubed, holding 5,000 doses, the Pfizer one should be simple to get into the country. The real trick will be after it arrives.

stargazer 68 · 23-11-2020 01:44PM

Russman wrote: »

True.
At little more than 18" cubed, holding 5,000 doses, the Pfizer one should be simple to get into the country. The real trick will be after it arrives.

Exactly. What happens to it then? Where does it go? The major hospitals for distribution or a central point. This could be why the Gov are so quiet on the vaccine compared to the UK. They know they have no logistical plan in place to deal with it.

Strumms · 23-11-2020 01:59PM

There are a host of cold storage and temperature controlled facilities already available in this country. Pharmaceutical companies already use them.... Logistics companies have temp controlled vehicles to take products from source / port of arrival to destination.

When the vaccine arrives it will if necessary be on dry ice, or in a temperature controlled vehicles.

https://www.dixontransport.com/about-us/profile/

http://www.nesta.ie/

Eod100 · 23-11-2020 02:15PM

Really good news about the vaccines. The Irish doctor involved in Oxford vaccine seemed confident that things might start to come back to normal in May or June. Starting to see more light at the end of the tunnel

stephenjmcd · 23-11-2020 02:20PM

Last week it was reported St Columcille's Hospital in Loughlinstown had an outbreak of 21 cases.

This has now risen to 31 covid positive patients in what is a 100 bed hospital.

There is also 58 nursing staff are out as they are either covid positive or covid contacts.

Outpatient appointments now cancelled and its medical assessment unit will close this evening initially for 2 days

23-11-2020 02:21PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's not incredibly difficult, but it will be a logistical challenge and more difficult than the flu vaccine. They'll have to decided which groups get which vaccine and the vaccines will be arriving as they are made. They'll have to figure out how to identify and contact those groups. The nursing homes will be easy, but how do you vaccinate the older people who are not in a nursing home but might be relatively immobile? There's also issues with the Pfizer vaccine needing special freezers, and all the vaccines so far need two doses which will have to be tracked.

I'd hope for over 65s they'll use state pension data to contact people over that age. GDPR be damned. Over 70's still get medical cards don't they, so HSE already have that info. Contact them by letter and give them an appointment, and a number to ring if they have mobility issues/need a lift.

Stheno · 23-11-2020 02:22PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Last week it was reported St Columcille's Hospital in Loughlinstown had an outbreak of 21 cases.

This has now risen to 31 covid positive patients in what is a 100 bed hospital.

There is also 58 nursing staff are out as they are either covid positive or covid contacts.

Outpatient appointments now cancelled and its medical assessment unit will close this evening initially for 2 days

Where are you seeing that info?

stephenjmcd · 23-11-2020 02:23PM

Stheno wrote: »

Where are you seeing that info?

Heard it myself last night from someone working there but held off posting until it was announced.

Now being reported on local radio in the last hour.

https://www.eastcoast.fm/news/wicklow-news/medical-assessment-unit-at-st-columcilles-hospital-to-close-due-to-covid-outbreak/

Thierry12 · 23-11-2020 02:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Interestingly Luke O'Neill said this morning that the mass testing in Liverpool which included testing of 167,000 people determined an asymptomatic infection rate of just 25%. This is significantly lower than what seemed like a consensus of 50% rate of asymptomatic infection that had been agreed on in most studies before.

This is great news, it means worldwide much less infections are being missed than was originally thought , and there are far fewer invisible speakers wandering about unbeknownst to anyone

It doesn't mean that

They used antigen tests in Liverpool which are much less specific than PCR tests we use here

Antigen won't catch many asymptomatic

gipi · 23-11-2020 02:35PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'd hope for over 65s they'll use state pension data to contact people over that age. GDPR be damned. Over 70's still get medical cards don't they, so HSE already have that info. Contact them by letter and give them an appointment, and a number to ring if they have mobility issues/need a lift.

The HSE can already request details of data held by the Department of Social Protection for specific purposes (Breastcheck, for example, to identify women in the age range), so it should be doable, once an appropriate change is made to SW legislation.

giveitholly · 23-11-2020 02:37PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Last week it was reported St Columcille's Hospital in Loughlinstown had an outbreak of 21 cases.

This has now risen to 31 covid positive patients in what is a 100 bed hospital.

There is also 58 nursing staff are out as they are either covid positive or covid contacts.

Outpatient appointments now cancelled and its medical assessment unit will close this evening initially for 2 days

Would those 31 cases be counted in the daily hospitalisation figures that are released every day?

ax530 · 23-11-2020 03:10PM

I hope this week we sart seeing some countines with 0 cases and most days <300 cases. once restrictions are lifted and 4-5 weeks up to Christmas sure they will be rises really hope can keep it from getting up to 1000 a day like September.
People will adhere again in Jan once the vacc program kicks off.
never expected the restrictions to last until end of the year but at this stage feels an end is in sight and we will regain some normality as the spring \ summer approaches

seamus · 23-11-2020 03:13PM

hmmm wrote: »

I believe so? I also presume something like this gets shipped in by plane. There's Brexit also so could be some trouble at the ports.

I'm sure if needs be the Defence forces can go pick it up, or the airlines have a few spare planes.

Im not sure if it was here or reddit I..uh..read it, but apparently this -80 degrees thing is not particularly special to the Pfizer vaccine. It's just generally what they do in early vaccine trials. It gives maximum stabiity to the formula so the data is clearer.
Once that data is established, they then bring the formula up to -20, continue testing and compare the cooler data against the warmer to see how stable the formula has remained. If the warmer formula is less stable, they research to see what they can do to stabilise it.

This is why the Pfizer one is -80 and the Moderna one is -20. Moderna went straight for tests at -20.

Over the next few months, Pfizer will prove their vaccine at warmer temps, so hopefully by Spring/Summer there'll be no need for suitcases of dry ice.

giveitholly wrote: »

Would those 31 cases be counted in the daily hospitalisation figures that are released every day?

Yes, but they wouldn't be classed as "admissions", they'd just increase the hospital numbers.

An Ciarraioch · 23-11-2020 03:22PM

ax530 wrote: »

I hope this week we sart seeing some countines with 0 cases and most days <300 cases. once restrictions are lifted and 4-5 weeks up to Christmas sure they will be rises really hope can keep it from getting up to 1000 a day like September.
People will adhere again in Jan once the vacc program kicks off.
never expected the restrictions to last until end of the year but at this stage feels an end is in sight and we will regain some normality as the spring \ summer approaches

We could already have some, when they're "<5 cases", that also includes 0.

An Ciarraioch · 23-11-2020 03:23PM

NI finally appears to be coming under control:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1330876457594331137

ElJeffe · 23-11-2020 03:27PM

stargazer 68 wrote: »

Exactly. What happens to it then? Where does it go? The major hospitals for distribution or a central point. This could be why the Gov are so quiet on the vaccine compared to the UK. They know they have no logistical plan in place to deal with it.

If they haven't got a plan it's going to be complete carnage when the vaccine arrives. This is something they should have been planning for since the summer. There is literally zero excuse for screwing this up.

ACitizenErased · 23-11-2020 03:31PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We could already have some, when they're "<5 cases", that also includes 0.

They're included on the gov.ie report daily as 0. <5 means between 1 and 5

bb1234567 · 23-11-2020 03:36PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

NI finally appears to be coming under control:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1330876457594331137

Well it's a Monday, so it'll be low. However does seem to be gradually calming down a bit.

JDD · 23-11-2020 03:44PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

NI finally appears to be coming under control:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1330876457594331137

Tell me this now. In mid October Northern Ireland were finding over 1k cases a day, with about a quarter of our population. How were their hospitals not overrun two weeks later? Is it just that NHS hospitals have better capacity, or what?

eagle eye · 23-11-2020 03:47PM

Was some official talking about easing restrictions?
If we went to level 3 now we'd be in dire straits before Christmas.

And before we decide to go back to a lower restriction level the retail shops have to have a plan in place to restrict the number of people entering their premises.
There needs to be a serious plan for all businesses in place to try and make a lower level work.

ACitizenErased · 23-11-2020 03:48PM

Level 3 was confirmed by the Taoiseach today, official announcement coming Thursday/Friday

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Comments