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Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #5432
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    It is important to remember that NPHET are the experts in this field. They have access to all of the data, they have access to the best resources and blank cheque to get what they need.

    Thus, where the state requires an analysis and an expert opinion, they are the primary leader. If Sam McConkey and the other talking heads say one thing, and NPHET says another, then we should default to the assumption that NPHET are correct. Otherwise why even bother having them?

    We are in a public health emergency, and picking and choosing our response from a variety of sources is not the way foreward. There needs to be an authority.

    HOWEVER, that is not to say that NPHET must go unquestioned, that we absolutely must do what they recommend and that we shouldn't make some space for alterative suggestions; provided those suggestions are reasonable.

    Polarising any discussion in terms of "with NPHET or against NPHET" is not helpful. Questioning NPHET does not mean you're against them. It doesn't mean you believe they're wrong. It merely means you want all of the bases covered, all of the decisions evidenced.

    Calling out Dr. Holohan for using the 5-day number when he has previously called it unhelpful, is not an attack on NPHET. Criticising them for pushing for level 5 without allowing level 3 to have an effect, is not an attack on NPHET.


  • #5433
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    Great post


  • #5434
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,470 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    This is a very good point. It's astounding that we didn't pump money into that rather than having to shut down again. Clearly lockdown costs a lot more than building emergency capacity in lots of ways.

    I don't think that's NPHET's fault though. I'm sure they gave the government the advice and they didn't take it like we've seen that before. They are scape coated for unpopular POLITICAL decisions.


    There is only so much you can do to "build emergency capacity". You can take over a building and put a load of beds in there, but you cannot magic up qualified staff to work there. At a time when every other country is coming under pressure you cannot import staff. About the only thing you can do is cancel other stuff and move those staff.


  • #5435
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    seamus wrote: »
    It is important to remember that NPHET are the experts in this field. They have access to all of the data, they have access to the best resources and blank cheque to get what they need.

    Thus, where the state requires an analysis and an expert opinion, they are the primary leader. If Sam McConkey and the other talking heads say one thing, and NPHET says another, then we should default to the assumption that NPHET are correct. Otherwise why even bother having them?

    We are in a public health emergency, and picking and choosing our response from a variety of sources is not the way foreward. There needs to be an authority.

    HOWEVER, that is not to say that NPHET must go unquestioned, that we absolutely must do what they recommend and that we shouldn't make some space for alterative suggestions; provided those suggestions are reasonable.

    Polarising any discussion in terms of "with NPHET or against NPHET" is not helpful. Questioning NPHET does not mean you're against them. It doesn't mean you believe they're wrong. It merely means you want all of the bases covered, all of the decisions evidenced.

    Calling out Dr. Holohan for using the 5-day number when he has previously called it unhelpful, is not an attack on NPHET. Criticising them for pushing for level 5 without allowing level 3 to have an effect, is not an attack on NPHET.
    Nah man, anti-restriction brigade represent!!!


  • #5436
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,117 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    There is only so much you can do to "build emergency capacity". You can take over a building and put a load of beds in there, but you cannot magic up qualified staff to work there. At a time when every other country is coming under pressure you cannot import staff. About the only thing you can do is cancel other stuff and move those staff.

    But its not just about bed capacity, reading the posts about Limerick it sounds like its staff welfare facilities too. How hard is it to put in extra portacabins for more spaced out canteens. Its not always about increasing the high end goals like extra icu.


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  • #5437
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    This is a very good point. It's astounding that we didn't pump money into that rather than having to shut down again. Clearly lockdown costs a lot more than building emergency capacity in lots of ways.

    I don't think that's NPHET's fault though. I'm sure they gave the government the advice and they didn't take it like we've seen that before. They are scape goated for unpopular POLITICAL decisions.

    The fact that the rest of Europe is in a far worse state is evidence that if we did nothing we'd be in a similar state. I don't think a government would survive that or at least be punished heavily when the election was eventually called.
    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    There is only so much you can do to "build emergency capacity". You can take over a building and put a load of beds in there, but you cannot magic up qualified staff to work there. At a time when every other country is coming under pressure you cannot import staff. About the only thing you can do is cancel other stuff and move those staff.
    When cases/hospitalizations and ICU figures were growing exponentially, does it not get to a point where evening doubling capacity (by somehow magically doubling staff) where it just buys you a week or 2 before you need to lockdown.
    It's not like you can let it rip and it will burn itself out before ICU/hospital capacity is filled.

    Realistically caveat, with the graphs you used to post with the exponential growth, if we had 2x the capacity in ICU/Hospitals, how many extra weeks would it have bought us before having to lockdown again? I don't think we could have avoided another lockdown.


  • #5438
    The HorsesMouth
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 512 ✭✭✭The HorsesMouth


    prunudo wrote: »
    But its not just about bed capacity, reading the posts about Limerick it sounds like its staff welfare facilities too. How hard is it to put in extra portacabins for more spaced out canteens. Its not always about increasing the high end goals like extra icu.

    I'm a teacher and I'm eating my lunch in the car as our canteen is closed. We are taking it seriously here and I'd have assumed hospitals are doing the same if not more!


  • #5439
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,117 ✭✭✭prunudo


    The HorsesMouth wrote: »
    I'm a teacher and I'm eating my lunch in the car as our canteen is closed. We are taking it seriously here and I'd have assumed hospitals are doing the same if not more!

    Not everyone drives to work and with the change in the weather people don't eat their lunch outside anymore. Posters were sharing stories about hospital staff having cramped canteen facilities.


  • #5440
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,587 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Jinglejangle69 wrote:
    It's like noone dare challenge and question done of their decisions.
    They don't make decisions, they advise the government.
    If you have ire as regards decisions made that should be focused on the government. If you have ire as regards the performance of the health service that should be focused on the HSE and the government.


  • #5441
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Yeah good point @Wolf359f. I don't think people realise how hard it is to keep elective care going in a situation like this while numbers rising. Something clearly had to give. I don't accept people blaming hospital staff for being infected or being out sick and adding to the numbers. I do think that it is ok though to question the HSE on PPE and infection control. Maybe everything is being done.

    Transparency is a problem here. They wouldn't even admit that anyone got it in a hospital while working. (I'd imagine so there wouldn't be mass absences due to fear) But how can you fix something if you won't even countenance it taking place. PPE here looks very different to other countries and I've questioned that from the start.

    I prefer Ronan Glynn to Tony but that's irrelevant to the situation. I'm glad government did eventually listen to them. The virus is the problem here not the advice or the decisions based on that advice. Getting angry because you don't like the cut of Dr Tony's jib or for past serious failings won't get us out of this.

    Here's a hospital in the UK from 6 days ago. It really is a nightmare scenario trying to keep it all going so I'd sympathise with UL health care workers. They are doing trojan work. I certainly wouldn't blame them. I'd support anybody who is questioning the government or HSE on whether enough is being done to protect them though.



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  • #5442
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,130 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    I see IBEC are having a good old whinge today. They're clearly not used to not having the government to do whatever they want.

    Really bizarre them demanding that hospitality, retail and travel reopening to level 2 at the start of December. If the government follows the scientific advice, there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of that happening.

    Their other criticism of NPHET is laughable, effectively telling them to shut up because they are saying things they do not want to hear.


  • #5443
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    more amazing vaccine news. hopefully the relentless anger from some on here might subside a bit.


  • #5444
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,421 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    froog wrote: »
    more amazing vaccine news. hopefully the relentless anger from some on here might subside a bit.
    Level of anger moves up and down with daily case numbers unfortunately.
    Need to be measuring the 7/14 day average anger!

    People get disappointed when cases increases and need someone to blame or lash out at. Understandable really, sure we're all on edge.
    Obviously there's some justifiably blame/anger to be directed at the Government/HSE mis/management. I don't think anyone is blaming HCW's for getting infected.


  • #5445
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Sorry to be the bearer of good news and all that ;)

    Irish Times today:

    Immunity to the coronavirus may last years or even decades, according to a new study.

    Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show.

    A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

    The research has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal, but it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalised disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.

    The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.

    The research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of Sars, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.

    The findings are also consistent with encouraging evidence emerging from other labs. Researchers at the University of Washington had earlier shown certain “memory” cells that were produced following infection with the coronavirus persist for at least three months in the body.

    A study published last week also found that people who have recovered from Covid-19 have powerful and protective killer immune cells even when antibodies are not detectable.

    These studies “are all by and large painting the same picture, which is that once you get past those first few critical weeks, the rest of the response looks pretty conventional,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona. – New York Times


  • #5446
    daydorunrun
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 784 ✭✭✭daydorunrun


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Level of anger moves up and down with daily case numbers unfortunately.
    Need to be measuring the 7/14 day average anger!

    People get disappointed when cases increases and need someone to blame or lash out at. Understandable really, sure we're all on edge.
    Obviously there's some justifiably blame/anger to be directed at the Government/HSE mis/management. I don't think anyone is blaming HCW's for getting infected.

    That's so last month- 5 day average anger is where it's at man:pac:

    “You tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.” Homer.



  • #5447
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Level of anger moves up and down with daily case numbers unfortunately.
    Need to be measuring the 7/14 day average anger!

    People get disappointed when cases increases and need someone to blame or lash out at. Understandable really, sure we're all on edge.
    Obviously there's some justifiably blame/anger to be directed at the Government/HSE mis/management. I don't think anyone is blaming HCW's for getting infected.

    i have no doubt the angry mob throwing darts at tony holohan posters will move on to the anti-vaccer frontlines now.


  • #5448
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,011 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Here's a hospital in the UK from 6 days ago.

    The NHS is the largest organisation in Europe, and the second-largest in the world.
    The narrative of NHS overcapacity is being deployed by local and national authorities to promote adherence to lockdown measures, but the statistics used in this debate are strikingly selective. Liverpool University Hospitals had 320 Covid patients earlier this week, vs 400 at the peak last time. But zoom out and the situation is very different: there are about 350 Covid patients in hospitals across the whole of South West and South East England, for example. So the Liverpool situation is not a proxy for the NHS more widely.

    Should Liverpool's 90 ICU beds become full, plans are in place for an extra 30 ICU beds: this is the "surge capacity" in every hospital, another reason why the stats are misleading. If things get busy, capacity will be added, routine surgery delayer or patients routed to other hospitals. This is how the NHS works. It's a world leader in scaling up – and triage. There are other hospitals within half an hour’s drive (in St Helens and Clatterbridge, for example) that can take patients. There are many ways of creating capacity in hospitals, and that's before you get to the Nightingale overflow units. Elective operations can be delayed – which of course creates problems down the line.

    [..]

    In the politicised debate over the NHS in Liverpool, we often hear that its ICUs are running at 90 per cent of capacity. But this is pretty normal for an NHS hospital: over the past ten years, ICU occupancy in Liverpool has always been between 80 per cent and 90 per cent. Nationally, ICU usage is at 60 per cent – far below normal. Nationally, there are about 475 Covid patients on ventilators across the NHS, with 4,750 ventilator beds available. So it's hard to use these figures to point to a health service at risk of collapse, or anywhere close to collapse.

    Link


  • #5449
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    froog wrote: »
    i have no doubt the angry mob throwing darts at tony holohan posters will move on to the anti-vaccer frontlines now.
    You're mad on about this angry mob and won't say who it is. Who's angry?

    Last time I checked, questioning NPHET is =/= being part of an angry mob.


  • #5450
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    You're mad on about this angry mob and won't say who it is. Who's angry?

    Last time I checked, questioning NPHET is =/= being part of an angry mob.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058119735


  • #5451
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1329065826314559488


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  • #5452
    Will Yam
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭Will Yam


    robbiezero wrote: »
    "What will it be today Tony - The 3, 5, 7 or 14 day average"

    "The usual - Whichever is the worst".

    Exactly!! Pick the worst one and flog it to death.

    A good example is Dublin. When the 7 day rolling average was 159 things were so bad we had to be put on level 3.

    Latest 7 day average in Dublin is 111 but things are so bad we must stay on level 5.


  • #5453
    lemonTrees
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 105 ✭✭lemonTrees


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    I see IBEC are having a good old whinge today. They're clearly not used to not having the government to do whatever they want.

    Really bizarre them demanding that hospitality, retail and travel reopening to level 2 at the start of December. If the government follows the scientific advice, there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of that happening.

    Their other criticism of NPHET is laughable, effectively telling them to shut up because they are saying things they do not want to hear.

    I'd be listening to a guy slinging heroin on the broadwalk for health advice before i'd be listening to IBEC.


  • #5454
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    lemonTrees wrote: »
    I suppose it's a sign of the times but i do find it rather sad the amount of tin foil hatery that i read on this thread. "It's all NPHET's fault", "RTE are out to scare us" etc...

    Nobody is out to get you lads.

    I hope it's an involuntary reaction out of frustration/denial even fear in some cases rather than grown adults genuinely holding belief our government stands to benefit anything from scaring the population, that would be worrying. Sounds so unbelievable ridiculous even writing it down


  • #5455
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    12,560 tests, giving 390 positive swabs. 3.11% positivity. 7-day down again to 3.84%

    Great numbers. Hope to see 2-3 more days of this

    In case anyone's a bit iffy on that number, 3.11% is the second lowest number we've had since 29th September. The only lower one was 2.72% on 10th November.

    It also breaks the Wednesday curse/trend of spikes :)


  • #5456
    manniot2
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭manniot2


    wakka12 wrote: »
    I hope it's an involuntary reaction out of frustration/denial even fear in some cases rather than grown adults genuinely holding belief our government stands to benefit anything from scaring the population, that would be worrying. Sounds so unbelievable ridiculous even writing it down

    Great to have such blind faith in the government, I wish I had the same. But you are highly naïve if you think there is no politics at play when it comes to the decision making in this regard. Mark my words, as soon as opinion poles start swaying, they will change their tune on these restrictions.


  • #5457
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    seamus wrote: »
    12,560 tests, giving 390 positive swabs. 3.11% positivity. 7-day down again to 3.84%

    Great numbers. Hope to see 2-3 more days of this

    Have we not moved to reporting the 5 day average now? ;-)


  • #5458
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    We’re back on track it seems, great stuff


  • #5459
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    manniot2 wrote: »
    Great to have such blind faith in the government, I wish I had the same. But you are highly naïve if you think there is no politics at play when it comes to the decision making in this regard. Mark my words, as soon as opinion poles start swaying, they will change their tune on these restrictions.

    As they should ,we live in a democracy. You're saying it like it's some sercet that we elect politicians who are supposed to represent the views of a majority


  • #5460
    KrustyUCC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,077 ✭✭✭KrustyUCC


    seamus wrote: »
    12,560 tests, giving 390 positive swabs. 3.11% positivity. 7-day down again to 3.84%

    Great numbers. Hope to see 2-3 more days of this

    In case anyone's a bit iffy on that number, 3.11% is the second lowest number we've had since 29th September. The only lower one was 2.72% on 10th November.

    It also breaks the Wednesday curse/trend of spikes :)

    Good numbers

    Let's hope that rate can decrease in the next few days


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  • #5461
    MerlinSouthDub
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭MerlinSouthDub


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    Have we not moved to reporting the 5 day average now? ;-)

    Tony H should be pleased - the 5 day average will fall by 20 cases today (482 cases last Friday, should be under 390 today). I expect a celebratory tweet from Tony later on.


This discussion has been closed.
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