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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #9302
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    ShlugMurphy wrote: »
    Lockdown hasn't affected construction at all. Everything construction related is open.

    What has affected construction is the fact of Covid. Very few sites are beginning construction. I was told by a site contractor that foundations are not being dug. Existing projects are continuing to completion. There may be as many completions this years as last but what of starts?


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    #9303
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,891 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    brisan wrote: »
    Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
    So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

    i wouldnt be at all surprised.


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    #9304
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That's true. So one could make the argument that the high cost of housing in Dublin in primarily due to the local county council and depends on how they draw up their development plans.

    Not sure that's entirely accurate.

    In your two-plot in Blackrock example, if both plots were zoned residential, it's unlikely to be enough to bring the average land prices down in the area.


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    #9305
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    Presumably these construction related covid rules and regulations were in place in Q3 also, when 5,118 dwellings were completed?

    Like I say I will hold my hands up if I am wrong when Jan comes around I reckon 16k so about 4k short of the 20k estimated at the start of the year. What were the build completions in Q1 and Q2? I believe up until the end of Q3 we were ar 13.300k (approx) So Q4 we have to get 6.7k finished with a new lockdown, bad weather, Xmas holidays and MeHole Martin telling us 20k wont be possible yesterday?...As I say no point arguing the data will be there in Jan


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    #9306
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    brisan wrote: »
    Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
    So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

    Depends on the size of the plot, there's definitely no point arguing land costs have no impact on housing costs.

    There's also the LA contributions, labour costs, demand side, quality of expected finishes for the market etc. to take into account.


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    #9307
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Like I say I will hold my hands up if I am wrong when Jan comes around I reckon 16k so about 4k short of the 20k estimated at the start of the year. What were the build completions in Q1 and Q2? I believe up until the end of Q3 we were ar 13.300k (approx) So Q4 we have to get 6.7k finished with a new lockdown, bad weather, Xmas holidays and MeHole Martin telling us 20k wont be possible yesterday?...As I say no point arguing the data will be there in Jan

    20k is a recent estimate, not an estimate from the start of the year. Pre covid, the estimate for 2020 was 24-25k.

    2020 so far
    Q1 completions 5k
    Q2 completions 3.2k (construction shut for a period)
    Q3 completions 5.1k

    Q4 is historically the best for completions, so you would be looking at 6k or so by my reckoning.


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    #9308
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,175 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    brisan wrote: »
    Agreed to a point ,some costs will be more
    So a plot of land in Blackrock costs 500k or thereabouts more than in Wexford,I doubt it

    Some plots of land in Blackrock cost more than 1m. On Woodbine Road several houses sold for around €1m, have or are being demolished and a new house constructed on the site.


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    #9309
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    20k is a recent estimate, not an estimate from the start of the year. Pre covid, the estimate or 2020 was 24-25k.

    2020 so far
    Q1 completions 5k
    Q2 completions 3.2k (construction shut for a period)
    Q3 completions 5.1k

    Q4 is historically the best for completions, so you would be looking at 6k or so by my reckoning.

    And Martin said it as recently as yesterday that 20k would not be complete by the end of the year. so I think I would listen to the leader of the country telling bad news that does nothing good for him or his party . But we are arguing over something that will happen soon so no point in dwelling on it. You have said 20k would be doable I am saying it wont lets leave it at that and find out in jan


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    #9310
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    Not sure that's entirely accurate.

    In your two-plot in Blackrock example, if both plots were zoned residential, it's unlikely to be enough to bring the average land prices down in the area.

    These development plans are drawn up over a long period of time. They also know that wherever they draw a line is the difference between a plot of land being worth either millions or basically zero.

    IMO, they should consult with all landlowners prior to a development plan being published and ascertain if they do intend to apply for planning permission and build. Otherwise, why rezone it?

    If not, their land isn't rezoned. If they do intend to build and their land is re-zoned, they should be told that they must apply for planning permission within 6 months (have a fast track approval process) and start building within 12 months otherwise a CPO order is put in place at a pre-rezoned valuation.

    There's too much money to be made from re-zoning for any leeway to be provided to the beneficiaries of such re-zoning decisions IMO.


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    #9311
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    fliball123 wrote: »
    And Martin said it as recently as yesterday that 20k would not be complete by the end of the year. so I think I would listen to the leader of the country telling bad news that does nothing good for him or his party . But we are arguing over something that will happen soon so no point in dwelling on it. You have said 20k would be doable I am saying it wont lets leave it at that and find out in jan

    My estimate would be somewhere around 19.5k, which would tie in with what Martin is saying.

    Certainly nowhere near struggling to get to 16k. We are probably past 16k already.


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    #9312
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    fliball123 wrote: »
    People can make money anywhere

    Yep, maybe they can make more here, depending on their qualifications.
    It doesn't necessarily hold that they are here because of how fantastic Ireland is.
    It also means that they can go anywhere, should somewhere else become more attractive.

    I don't believe we should think we can rely on always having more people coming into the country


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    #9313
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    There's too much money to be made from re-zoning for any leeway to be provided to the beneficiaries of such re-zoning decisions IMO.

    Probably not something that's going to change in the context of the property market this year (or next).


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    #9314
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    What has affected construction is the fact of Covid. Very few sites are beginning construction. I was told by a site contractor that foundations are not being dug. Existing projects are continuing to completion. There may be as many completions this years as last but what of starts?

    is there up to date data anywhere on this?


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    #9315
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,136 ✭✭✭combat14


    House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


    sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back


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    #9316
    Bubbaclaus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    combat14 wrote: »
    House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


    sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

    Prices have been growing month on month in each of the last 6 months. There was a bit of a dip pre covid, which is why the YoY figure is still showing as down, but that is not covid related. Sales prices have actually been rising slowly since March. Mostly steady really.


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    #9317
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,891 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    combat14 wrote: »
    House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


    sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

    house prices will continue to rise outside dublin and they will continue to stagnate in dublin as we hit affordability limits a couple of years ago, but dont let that get in the way of your sarcasm.


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    #9318
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    combat14 wrote: »
    House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


    sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

    Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

    This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.


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    #9319
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    combat14 wrote: »
    House prices fall by almost 1% as Covid dampens market

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/house-prices-fall-by-almost-1-as-covid-dampens-market-1.4412542?mode=amp


    sad to see prices falling hope house prices will rocket and soar next year as economy roars back

    0.6% rise in the last 4 months?


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    #9320
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,891 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

    This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

    tenor.gif


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    #9321
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Bubbaclaus wrote: »
    My estimate would be somewhere around 19.5k, which would tie in with what Martin is saying.

    Certainly nowhere near struggling to get to 16k. We are probably past 16k already.

    Not sure, but if I was martin and I knew we were getting close to the 20k mark and 19.5k is close I would of rephrased it and I would of tailored my response as a positive and saying we will get to 19.5k even with all of the challenges of covid. I mean surely he doesn't want to be playing right into Sinn Fein's hands.


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    #9322
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

    This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

    It is looking good for a major downturn ok. When the pump stops pumping, I would not like to be holding newly acquired property bought at too dollar.

    That 30k booster wont last forever either as the economy tightens and taxes increase/spending decreases.

    Good news for my son. Thank goodness he was gazumped in February.


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    #9323
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    It is looking good for a major downturn ok. When the pump stops pumping, I would not like to be holding newly acquired property bought at too dollar.

    That 30k booster wont last forever either as the economy tightens and taxes increase/spending decreases.

    Good news for my son. Thank goodness he was gazumped in February.

    haha its been looking good for that since February your son might be staying with you a lot longer than you think


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    #9324
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,891 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Pelezico wrote: »
    It is looking good for a major downturn ok.

    if ever there was an oxymoron.


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    #9325
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    Cyrus wrote: »
    if ever there was an oxymoron.


    From.where you are sitting, it may be so, but from my poing of view downturn in property prices is good.

    I know some people just dont get that. But there you are.


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    #9326
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    From.where you are sitting, it may be so, but from my poing of view downturn in property prices is good.

    I know some people just dont get that. But there you are.

    Well we will all know when property has gone to its lowest now. When your son buys make sure you keep us posted when he does we can all buy then :)


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    #9327
    Pelezico
    Registered Users Posts: 681 ✭✭✭Pelezico


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Well we will all know when property has gone to its lowest now. When your son buys make sure you keep us posted when he does we can all buy then :) Also you say bloodbath what % drop is that so that we should be expecting?


    Did I use the word bloodbath? I hope not.


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    #9328
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Pelezico wrote: »
    Did I use the word bloodbath? I hope not.

    whoops sorry it was Fridge who used it apologies


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    #9329
    Cyrus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,891 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


      Pelezico wrote: »
      From.where you are sitting, it may be so, but from my poing of view downturn in property prices is good.

      I know some people just dont get that. But there you are.

      a huge decrease in property prices wont impact me, i have no desire to move and my mortgage equates to about 30% of the value of my house, so im alright jack as they say.

      But i wouldnt welcome the economic scenario that would result in this major downturn a few of you are looking forward to.


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      #9330
      AssetBacked2
      Closed Accounts Posts: 232 ✭✭AssetBacked2


      thefridge2006 wrote: »
      Down 2% in Dublin...….. and we haven't even seen the affects of Covid yet. 2% and the economy in on life support with money being pumped into to it....

      This will be a bloodbath when support get switched off.

      If support gets switched off. That's key to economic and property market stability.


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      #9331
      Sweet.Science
      Registered Users Posts: 2,845 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


      The negative side of a slowdown is that sellers wont sell if they cant get the price they have in their head

      Its happening me at the moment.


    This discussion has been closed.
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