Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

iamwhoiam · 17-11-2020 07:40PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

NPHET know the score on schools. They know the virus is spreading through there. The virus doesn't particularly have any preference for avoiding Irish schools as schools elsewhere in Europe are closing.

The situation on schools is this. . . that the public are fed ****e about them being "safe" with bogus stats. This is important so as to ensure public confidence as if parents start taking kids out of schools then they will have to close anyway.

However the virus ain't gonna play along with NPHET's BS on schools.

If schools were the major factor then numbers in Dublin wouldn’t be dropping
Dublin has some of the largest schools and of course have the largest number of schools in high density areas

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 07:41PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

You are really the only teacher I know who should really just stay at home and not go to work.

The rest are getting on with it.

So am I.

Far easier to work at school than online. So keep them open.

I'm not the one whinging about cases not coming down. NPHET are.

Only missed 2 days because I had to go and take a CoronaVirus test.

St.Spodo · 17-11-2020 07:44PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Full county breakdown

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1328769078501236749?s=19

Does anyone think we could see different levels in different parts of the country on 1 December? The situation in the Wicklow, Wexford and Carlow area is vastly different to the situation in Donegal.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 07:44PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

If schools were the major factor then numbers in Dublin wouldn’t be dropping
Dublin has some of the largest schools and of course have the largest number of schools in high density areas

7 day average in Dublin increased today. . . albeit slightly.

More fair to say that numbers in Dublin have now stabilised.

If you believe that numbers in Dublin are dropping then they must be rising elsewhere in sparsely populated rural areas as the general trend is now upwards.

If it ain't schools then where?

Those who don't believe that is schools are no different to climate change deniers.

iamwhoiam · 17-11-2020 07:48PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

7 day average in Dublin increased today. . . albeit slightly.

More fair to say that numbers in Dublin have now stabilised.

If you believe that numbers in Dublin are dropping then they must be rising elsewhere in sparsely populated rural areas as the general trend is now upwards.

If it ain't schools then where?

Those who don't believe that is schools are no different to climate change deniers.

I didn’t say it wasn’t schools I said its not a major factor . It is part of a bigger picture as the CMO said
If it aint schools then workplaces , shops , household mixing , parties , funerals , people socialising etc etc

froog · 17-11-2020 07:50PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

7 day average in Dublin increased today. . . albeit slightly.

More fair to say that numbers in Dublin have now stabilised.

If you believe that numbers in Dublin are dropping then they must be rising elsewhere in sparsely populated rural areas as the general trend is now upwards.

If it ain't schools then where?

Those who don't believe that is schools are no different to climate change deniers.

well a few people have pointed out that it's the 85+ age bracket that is seeing increases while all other brackets are not. so the numbers would appear to be nursing home related.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 07:51PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I didn’t say it wasn’t schools I said its not a major factor . It is part of a bigger picture as the CMO said
If it aint schools then workplaces , shops , household mixing , parties , funerals , people socialising etc etc

It is a major factor.

You can't put 1000 people into buildings with no social distancing and no masks (at breaks) and pretend everything is going to be ok.

It is literally against every piece of advice given to everyone else in society.

But, like the climate change deniers, people will believe that they want to believe and no amount of evidence or argument will change their minds.

So carry on believing that schools are safe.

It's a futile and pointless argument at this stage.

spookwoman · 17-11-2020 07:52PM

Strumms · 17-11-2020 07:52PM

Gone Drinking wrote: »

There's a study that suggests 100 thousand of those "pub muppets" (hospitality workers) may be jobless by the end of the year. That would have huge consequences for the encomy.

The way you talk about the pandemic payment, you'd swear money grows on trees. Where do you think it comes from and who do you think will have to pay it back?

I’d prefer that well and alive people pay it back...

Where do you think we are going to get the healthcare staff from ? The beds and treatments for the assorted medical conditions and treatments needed to tend to the scores of everyday non covid illnesses and patients. Last time I looked, cancer, heart issues, strokes and a host of other medical problems needed looking after too... that doesn’t happen if this fûcking thing runs wild again.

So fûck the publicans quite frankly... pubs are not the sole driver and enabler of our economy... you need a new calculator if you think they are.

Ohmeha · 17-11-2020 07:52PM

National deaths and new cases with 7 day and 14 numbers since Level 5 introduced on October 22nd

7 Day % percentage decrease of new cases continues to slow down to only -2.56% indicating we are skirting very close to an R number of 1.0 again

Day Month Date Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av ROI Weekly 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
Thursday October 22nd 3 33 4.71 1,066 8,092 1,156.00 26.85% 1,033.64 135.61%
Friday October 23rd 7 37 5.29 777 7,869 1,124.14 16.37% 1,045.07 127.44%
Saturday October 24th 4 33 4.71 859 7,452 1,064.57 6.06% 1,034.14 101.17%
Sunday October 25th 0 30 4.29 1,025 7,194 1,027.71 -4.02% 1,049.21 93.76%
Monday October 26th 3 33 4.71 939 7,102 1,014.57 -7.78% 1,057.36 84.67%
Tuesday October 27th 5 25 3.57 720 6,553 936.14 -19.68% 1,050.86 73.82%
Wednesday October 28th 6 28 4.00 675 6,061 865.86 -26.36% 1,020.86 56.54%
Thursday October 29th 6 31 4.43 866 5,861 837.29 -27.57% 996.64 41.04%
Friday October 30th 6 30 4.29 772 5,856 836.57 -25.58% 980.36 31.68%
Saturday October 31st 5 31 4.43 416 5,413 773.29 -27.36% 918.93 16.05%
Sunday November 1st 2 33 4.71 552 4,940 705.71 -31.33% 866.71 1.07%
Monday November 2nd 2 32 4.57 767 4,768 681.14 -32.86% 847.86 -5.18%
Tuesday November 3rd 5 32 4.57 322 4,370 624.29 -33.31% 780.21 -18.21%
Wednesday November 4th 8 34 4.86 444 4,139 591.29 -31.71% 728.57 -26.68%
Thursday November 5th 3 31 4.43 591 3,864 552.00 -34.07% 694.64 -32.80%
Friday November 6th 8 33 4.71 499 3,591 513.00 -38.68% 674.79 -35.43%
Saturday November 7th 5 33 4.71 355 3,530 504.29 -34.79% 638.79 -38.23%
Sunday November 8th 2 33 4.71 542 3,520 502.86 -28.74% 604.29 -42.41%
Monday November 9th 1 32 4.57 270 3,023 431.86 -36.60% 556.50 -47.37%
Tuesday November 10th 16 43 6.14 270 2,971 424.43 -32.01% 524.36 -50.10%
Wednesday November 11th 2 37 5.29 362 2,889 412.71 -30.20% 502.00 -50.83%
Thursday November 12th 1 35 5.00 395 2,693 384.71 -30.31% 468.36 -53.01%
Friday November 13th 7 34 4.86 482 2,676 382.29 -25.48% 447.64 -54.34%
Saturday November 14th 6 35 5.00 456 2,777 396.71 -21.33% 450.50 -50.98%
Sunday November 15th 1 34 4.86 378 2,613 373.29 -25.77% 438.07 -49.46%
Monday November 16th 5 38 5.43 456 2,799 399.86 -7.41% 415.86 -50.95%
Tuesday November 17th 11 33 4.71 366 2,895 413.57 -2.56% 419.00 -46.30%

iamwhoiam · 17-11-2020 07:53PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It is a major factor.

You can't put 1000 people into buildings with no social distancing and no masks (at breaks) and pretend everything is going to be ok.

It is literally against every piece of advice given to everyone else in society.

But, like the climate change deniers, people will believe that they want to believe and no amount of evidence or argument will change their minds.

So carry on believing that schools are safe.

It's a futile and pointless argument at this stage.

Yes i will carry on having a different opinion to yours .

Pete_Cavan · 17-11-2020 07:53PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Today is the first day Ireland's 14 day average has increased since the day before the move to level 5 on October 22nd - from 414.4 cases per day to 417.5 cases per day (over the past 14 days).

That's where level 5 will stay at unless further action is taken.

That is because the average dropped a good bit yesterday due to the high 767 cases on 2 Nov was no longer within the 14 day period the calculation is based on. Todays numbers are "as you were" rather than a negative. The 14 day average will likely jump a bit next Tuesday (depending on numbers between now and then) as the two low 270 case days will have dropped out of the 14 days. The trend could be a positive one even if the 14 day average increases.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 07:54PM

froog wrote: »

well a few people have pointed out that it's the 85+ age bracket that is seeing increases while all other brackets are not. so the numbers would appear to be nursing home related.

Irrelevant.

This is among those that are tested. Young people are more likely to be asymptomatic because of their stronger immune systems and youth.

Approx 40% of people who have the virus have no symptoms at all. They do not even know they have the virus. They are not even getting tested.

The only reason why older people are showing increases is because they are less likely to be asymptomatic and hence more likely to be tested because of their age and consequently figures for such groups are increasing.

17-11-2020 07:55PM

Anyone mention the 5 day average fell today given it was so important to tell us it was rising at the weekend?

Pete_Cavan · 17-11-2020 07:58PM

normanoffside wrote: »

36 cases denotified. That's a lot

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1328766968678191104

That makes 251 for the month so far.

lemonTrees · 17-11-2020 08:03PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Honestly.

He said there is no appetite politically to extend it and its highly unlikely.

They know the public are fed up of NHPET.

No a few cranks on here don't speak for the general public.

Always_Running · 17-11-2020 08:04PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Anyone mention the 5 day average fell today given I was so important to tell us it was rising at the weekend?

I mentioned it and normally wouldnt as 7 and 14 days the ones to really focus on than 5 or 1 day cases.

17-11-2020 08:06PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

Irrelevant.

This is among those that are tested. Young people are more likely to be asymptomatic because of their stronger immune systems and youth.

Approx 40% of people who have the virus have no symptoms at all. They do not even know they have the virus. They are not even getting tested.

The only reason why older people are showing increases is because they are less likely to be asymptomatic and hence more likely to be tested because of their age and consequently figures for such groups are increasing.

Can you point to a study that identifies children are more likely to be asymptomatic? It seems to have become boards fact without clear evidence. Definitely more likely to be mild symptoms alright, but there doesn’t appear to be a body of evidence that they are more likely to be asymptomatic

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200914/Are-children-more-likely-to-be-SARS-CoV-2-asymptomatic-than-adults.aspx

Edit to add link to JAMA article identifying kids may be less likely to be asymptomatic...hmmmm

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.3595?guestAccessKey=ca0196e6-d121-48fe-8a6f-b8a22464750b&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=091420

awec · 17-11-2020 08:12PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Can they not just give it a chance? Close the schools now, see where we are at in the middle of December. If it's good then take us down to level 2:until after Christmas.

People talk about schools being important for children, Christmas is very important for them.

froog wrote: »

agree. can't they just stick on a few extra weeks in the summer? would be the smart move here.

Closing the schools has an enormous knock on effect, so they won't do it.

Thierry12 · 17-11-2020 08:14PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

National deaths and new cases with 7 day and 14 numbers since Level 5 introduced on October 22nd

7 Day % percentage decrease of new cases continues to slow down to only -2.56% indicating we are skirting very close to an R number of 1.0 again

Day Month Date Deaths Weekly 7 Day Av ROI Weekly 7 Day Av 7 Day % 14 Day Av 14 Day %
Thursday October 22nd 3 33 4.71 1,066 8,092 1,156.00 26.85% 1,033.64 135.61%
Friday October 23rd 7 37 5.29 777 7,869 1,124.14 16.37% 1,045.07 127.44%
Saturday October 24th 4 33 4.71 859 7,452 1,064.57 6.06% 1,034.14 101.17%
Sunday October 25th 0 30 4.29 1,025 7,194 1,027.71 -4.02% 1,049.21 93.76%
Monday October 26th 3 33 4.71 939 7,102 1,014.57 -7.78% 1,057.36 84.67%
Tuesday October 27th 5 25 3.57 720 6,553 936.14 -19.68% 1,050.86 73.82%
Wednesday October 28th 6 28 4.00 675 6,061 865.86 -26.36% 1,020.86 56.54%
Thursday October 29th 6 31 4.43 866 5,861 837.29 -27.57% 996.64 41.04%
Friday October 30th 6 30 4.29 772 5,856 836.57 -25.58% 980.36 31.68%
Saturday October 31st 5 31 4.43 416 5,413 773.29 -27.36% 918.93 16.05%
Sunday November 1st 2 33 4.71 552 4,940 705.71 -31.33% 866.71 1.07%
Monday November 2nd 2 32 4.57 767 4,768 681.14 -32.86% 847.86 -5.18%
Tuesday November 3rd 5 32 4.57 322 4,370 624.29 -33.31% 780.21 -18.21%
Wednesday November 4th 8 34 4.86 444 4,139 591.29 -31.71% 728.57 -26.68%
Thursday November 5th 3 31 4.43 591 3,864 552.00 -34.07% 694.64 -32.80%
Friday November 6th 8 33 4.71 499 3,591 513.00 -38.68% 674.79 -35.43%
Saturday November 7th 5 33 4.71 355 3,530 504.29 -34.79% 638.79 -38.23%
Sunday November 8th 2 33 4.71 542 3,520 502.86 -28.74% 604.29 -42.41%
Monday November 9th 1 32 4.57 270 3,023 431.86 -36.60% 556.50 -47.37%
Tuesday November 10th 16 43 6.14 270 2,971 424.43 -32.01% 524.36 -50.10%
Wednesday November 11th 2 37 5.29 362 2,889 412.71 -30.20% 502.00 -50.83%
Thursday November 12th 1 35 5.00 395 2,693 384.71 -30.31% 468.36 -53.01%
Friday November 13th 7 34 4.86 482 2,676 382.29 -25.48% 447.64 -54.34%
Saturday November 14th 6 35 5.00 456 2,777 396.71 -21.33% 450.50 -50.98%
Sunday November 15th 1 34 4.86 378 2,613 373.29 -25.77% 438.07 -49.46%
Monday November 16th 5 38 5.43 456 2,799 399.86 -7.41% 415.86 -50.95%
Tuesday November 17th 11 33 4.71 366 2,895 413.57 -2.56% 419.00 -46.30%

Going by that trend

Thursday 19th, should be 270 cases

Thursday 26th, 188 cases

Thursday Dec 3rd, 132 cases

Right on track then for 100 cases a day?

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 08:15PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Can you point to a study that identifies children are more likely to be asymptomatic? It seems to have become boards fact without clear evidence. Definitely more likely to be mild symptoms alright, but there doesn’t appear to be a body of evidence that they are more likely to be asymptomatic

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200914/Are-children-more-likely-to-be-SARS-CoV-2-asymptomatic-than-adults.aspx

Edit to add link to JAMA article identifying kids may be less likely to be asymptomatic...hmmmm

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.3595?guestAccessKey=ca0196e6-d121-48fe-8a6f-b8a22464750b&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=091420

It's common sense, quite frankly.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-over-80-of-young-individuals-may-show-no-symptoms#1

BringBackMick · 17-11-2020 08:18PM

We are approaching having COVID most controlled than any other country in Europe.

What the hell is with the negativity.

NEPHET are so awful,

They seem to revel in the dismal

We are doing very well, once we get below a 14 day 100 case per 100k rate we have the epidemic well under control.

And we will have that by next week.

We will get to enjoy a good deal of freedom at Christmas and much deserved

17-11-2020 08:19PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It's common sense, quite frankly.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-over-80-of-young-individuals-may-show-no-symptoms#1

Did you even read what you posted?

73% of under 60s compared to 81% of under20s. Massive difference.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 08:20PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Yes i will carry on having a different opinion to yours .

You're entitled to your own opinion.

You're not entitled to your own facts.

There's a reason why schools are closed in Italy, Greece, Czech Republic etc... and in many populous US states like New York and California.

It's not because the scientists in those areas agree with you.

Ultimately I understand why people want schools kept open. It's great to have the kids off your back for the day as you get to work from home or do whatever.

This blinds people to the facts.....like the climate change deniers.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 08:24PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Did you even read what you posted?

73% of under 60s compared to 81% of under20s. Massive difference.

73% are not likely to experience fever. . . This does not exempt them from other symptoms.

"Among those 80 years of age or over, the investigators estimate that only 35.4% are likely to show no symptoms . . . whilst more than 80% of people aged 20 and under may show no symptoms"

Jinglejangle69 · 17-11-2020 08:24PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

You're entitled to your own opinion.

You're not entitled to your own facts.

There's a reason why schools are closed in Italy, Greece, Czech Republic etc... and in many populous US states like New York and California.

It's not because the scientists in those areas agree with you.

Ultimately I understand why people want schools kept open. It's great to have them off your back for the day as you get to work from home or do whatever.

This blinds people to the facts.....like the climate change deniers.

Hold on.

You just said as a teacher you want the schools kept open?

What's with the attitude??

Plus if you're attitude is people want kids off their backs then why become a teacher at all?????

Plumbthedepths · 17-11-2020 08:25PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

No a few cranks on here don't speak for the general public.

I would suspect politicians are very much aware of the public mood.

Peter Flynt · 17-11-2020 08:28PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Hold on.

You just said as a teacher you want the schools kept open?

What's with the attitude??

Plus if you're attitude is people want kids off their backs then why become a teacher at all?????

I am happy for them to be kept open. Things are going better than I expected. I have worked around many students and staff who have contracted the virus as I work in a large school but that was to be expected.

I would like to work in an environment whereby neither I or my family are at serious risk of infection. . . but that is not going to be the case.

Like I state I had a COVID test and am delighted it has only been one so far.

If NPHET want the figures to come down then they have to close schools otherwise they should just STFU and stop blaming it on funerals and young people in 1 tweet.

MOR316 · 17-11-2020 08:29PM

lemonTrees wrote: »

No a few cranks on here don't speak for the general public.

Being genuine here, not taking the piss...

If that's your train of thought on the matter, I'd suggest actually speaking to people face to face, outside of this thread.

You'll see that you are way off in your way of thinking

17-11-2020 08:29PM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

73% are not likely to experience fever. . . This does not exempt them from other symptoms.

"Among those 80 years of age or over, the investigators estimate that only 35.4% are likely to show no symptoms . . . whilst more than 80% of people aged 20 and under may show no symptoms"

Read the study. The rate of asymtomatic infections was the same in 20 to 39 year olds as in under 20s. If you are going to use a study to support your view, you should really make sure it doesn’t do the opposite

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Comments