Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VI - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

yawhat? wrote: »

Hopping from thread to thread, and then going on to another thread to post about what you have seen. The irony is spectacular, if you’re not too dumb to see it.

Eh.. it's a discussion forum, and more than that it's a forum with multiple threads on the same topic. It's kind of the whole point that people will read different threads and that various individual subtopics will crop up between them

Your sneering is lost on me. I'm not 12.

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

I posted in a different context earlier today but what is alarming is that Micheal McGrath was quoted in the news the other day about the government looking at ways to increase tax revenue. This is extremely worrying as the borrowing to date is only the tip of the iceberg in order to make sure the economy doesn't collapse.

Think of all the restart grants that will be needed to get small businesses up and running, rents will be owed by individuals and businesses, loans will have to be repaid, jobs lost in the hard hit sectors won't come back overnight (tourism to travel to hospitality) which means a large chunk of these workers will need assistance to get back on their feet. Businesses which have been waiting out covid, implementing salary freezes or cuts, cancelling bonuses, will finally get to assess their business needs and may find that actually they don't have the same requirement for staff that they had before.

The borrowing to date has kept things afloat but it really is only the start as we are only 7 months into the crisis and could be in a restricted society for another 6 months or so, following which the economic rebuild (ie borrowing to restart the economy) will only begin. If the government are already worrying about paying back the borrowing to date, we could be in serious trouble in Ireland.

Not a good post to wake up and read

Reality hits. If I think about this logically, corporation tax receipts will be down, VAT intake will be down, capital gains tax etc. all will be down next year. Only avenue to increase tax intake is through income tax ..... :S :S :S

Our absolute joke of a union-riddled and bad-practice health service is the reason we are currently at L5 restrictions.

The politicians that we pay a king's ransom to sort out these issues are nowhere to be seen or heard from when it comes to making the tough decisions required to sort the HSE mess out.

They'd rather introduce fines for outdoor drinking in response to a couple of twitter posts.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1116/1178483-takeaway-pints-debate/

They really are the most cowardly and useless bunch of arseholes one could hope for.

Thierry12 wrote: »

That's what it all comes down to and people need to wake up

If Covid was highly contagious schools could never be open, impossible to open.

My 4 year old and 8 year old are in school all day with no masks

How in gods name could that school have not got a highly contagious disease already?

Because it’s a smart disease that only activates in the presence of alcohol being served, or a meal being served, or when someone is looking at clothes or browsing through items it deems non essential.

I mean there have been very few outbreaks in supermarkets for example since March through 2 lockdowns but they almost let their guard down the last time and allowed the clothes section stay open for a few days.

Could have been lethal that, thankfully they closed the clothing section in time before the virus realised people might be buying clothes in there and wreaked havoc!

nofools wrote: »

What is your plan?

Public sentiment is really turning against people who don't give a ****, they are joining the dots that these people are hurting us all.

I have worked every day since the pandemic started
The amount of traffic on the road at 7,15am,2,30pm ,3.00pm and 10pm tell me that people took the first lockdown seriously,whereas this time a very significant majority have said "Fcuk you " to the Government and carried on as normal wherever possible
I was stopped by Gardai regularly during the first lockdown ,not once this time
A Dunnes Stores shopping bag on the back seat is De Rigueur now

Thierry12 wrote: »

Agree totally

Your logic makes total sense

To get Wuhan and Lombardy scenes in Dec/Jan/Feb

It would have to build up for months

We know Covid builds slowly, we see that here.

I think they found cases going back to February in France when they tested samples from people who had died around then. First cases in America were in January but nobody was testing for it back then so it flew under the radar.

The first cases in Italy were likely a bit earlier than february because of the close links between northern italy and china due to the fashion industry (all those expensive brands manufacture in china) so the virus probably had 6 - 8 weeks of uncontrolled spread in northern italy with everyone carrying on as normal and that was enough to overwhelm their health system.

Waylon Petite Shower wrote: »

It has been stated many many times that taxes won't be increased, we will be spending our way out of any covid related issues and wont be using austerity.

Waylon Petite Shower wrote: »

The national debt never gets repaid, the latest borrowings just get added to it and we continue to chip away at repaying as we always do, these borrowings are not even costing any interest (negative interest in some cases).

this isn't really the case.
Government are borrowing at 0% now, but when they roll over that debt we've no idea what the rates will be then.
With so much extra debt to be serviced our risk premium will go up and people mighnt lend at cheap rates and want additional interest due to debt exposure.



Also this increased borrowing will hinder borrowing for things that matter - schools, hospitals and roads. It isn't a magic crock of gold.


finally all the borrowing will result in the value of your euro being worth less due to increased money supply. They are essentially robbing the value of the euro in your bank and wages to pay for this - on a EU scale.
Prices will rise- will peoples wages rise to match?

recent Irish history will answer that - not a fcking hope and you'll be poorer.

MadYaker wrote: »

I think they found cases going back to February in France when they tested samples from people who had died around then. First cases in America were in January but nobody was testing for it back then so it flew under the radar.

The first cases in Italy were likely a bit earlier than february because of the close links between northern italy and china due to the fashion industry (all those expensive brands manufacture in china) so the virus probably had 6 - 8 weeks of uncontrolled spread in northern italy with everyone carrying on as normal and that was enough to overwhelm their health system.

There are indications that it was in Italy as early as September 2019.

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKBN27W1J2

Waylon Petite Shower wrote: »

It has been stated many many times that taxes won't be increased, we will be spending our way out of any covid related issues and wont be using austerity.

The national debt never gets repaid, the latest borrowings just get added to it and we continue to chip away at repaying as we always do and so on, these borrowings are not even costing any interest (negative interest in some cases).

It is good to hear opinions from both sides of course and to have a healthy debate about it though but these are my opinions based on my own reading up on things and personal (anecdotal) experiences on how people I know are being affected (or not in pretty much every case).

I would stand by my post yesterday, this is nothing near as bad as the 2008 recession as large parts of the economy are not being hit by covid, there is lots of money in many people's pockets and once we have a vaccine and its safe to reopen people will spend, business will get back on track and so on. We will be over this all quite quickly (that is once we have a vaccine as opening up without one is not feasible).

We are borrowing heavily at the moment at favourable rates. When this rolls over we may or may not have a problem. My concern is the fact that expenditure is outpacing income by a significant margin and this will only get worse in 2021 when all those businesses closes for good and people are on the unemployment register. Sure, we can continue to borrow but we will also have to increase the tax take and cut expenditure.

There is absolutely no way the government will not increase taxes or at the very least introduce a new COVID solidarity payment to help cover some of this. I know the left wing nut jobs get stick over their pie in the sky economic policies but this is as bad as anything they could come up with. Running a budget deficit of 25 + billion a year is just not a realistic prospect for us in any time frame, cheap money or not.

Thierry12 wrote: »

6 weeks?

Ok

It started in Mid Jan?

Italy had 500 deaths a day by mid March

Infection to death is on average a few weeks for Covid

We will say infection to death is 4 weeks

You get infected, 7-10 days later you get sick, 7-10 days later it gets bad, 7-10 days later you die

CFR is 0.5%

You need 10,000 cases a day to get 500 deaths that took 4 weeks to happen

Italy had 10,000 cases a day in mid Feb

It started in mid Jan?

We will say 14th Jan 10 people had Covid in Italy

It had an r naught of 2?

Doubled every week?

14th Jan

10 people had it

10,20,40,80,160,320,640,1280,2560,5120, 10120

That's 10 weeks, but Italy had 10,000 cases in 4 weeks by mid Feb based on 0.5% CFR

To get 10,000 cases a day with r naught 2 in 4 weeks

Needs to start with around 600 cases

600, 1200, 2400, 4800, 9600

We know it takes ages to get 600 cases

We lockdowned the country with way less and we tested

Maths dont make sense for Lombardy or Wuhan

Is that not 50 deaths per day based on a CFR of 0.5% (on 10,000 cases) not 500?

thebaz wrote: »

I have long given up watching the daily NPHET virus count briefing - I value my mental health - the media give NPHET a very easy ride rarely questioning ther draconian measures - Why do we have the longest lockdown in Europe when the second wave has not had the same number of deaths as first wave everywhere (thankfully) ?

Latest questioning I heard was

"CMO do you think there is a chance we will have somewhat of a normal Christmas this year?"



:rolleyes:

rob316 wrote: »

I love that from Glynn yesterday. Outraged at the public drinking gatherings and then says we don't have any evidence to prove this causes clusters but if it keeps going on its likely their will be some.
No evidence, you might have some if your committee was made up of epidemiologists and scientists not GPs :rolleyes:

I’m not sure the fact that they may be experienced GPs and other medical specialists and not epidemiologists is the problem exactly.

I would imagine if you’ve managed to get yourself a medical degree you can be brought up to speed on epidemiology to an reasonable level with a few months of intense exposure. Granted you won’t have the experience, but you have experts with experience to advise - and you should be able to interpret advice. NHPET seems to be made up of people with medical backgrounds that have experience in working on a committee, coordinating information gathering and presenting it to people without a medical background in an understandable way - all fine.

The problem is the bias from the beginning on taking advice - seemed to be whatever obnoxious ‘expert’ shouted loudest. Sam McConkey, Gerry Killeen, Tomas Ryan etc. And what I believe is an obvious leaning towards a puritanical lifestyle, out of sync with reality of how many want to experience the pleasures of life that they work hard for. Yes some may have to be temporarily on hold for the greater good, accepted.

But they’re firmly stuck in a groupthink, perpetuated by correlation results and a heretofore mostly compliant and grateful public, and encouraged by rolling over of politicians happy to continue a tunnel-vision beat Covid no matter the collateral damage approach.

I’ve noticed at least they’ve cut back on the ‘new normal’ nonsense and there’s a glimmer of the ‘old normal’ returning eventually. Good - provided there’s an economy to facilitate it.