Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Arghus · 17-11-2020 12:50AM

awec wrote: »

Likely very little of it.

Really? So NPHET's advice that people should limit their social contacts, wash your hands, social distance and wear a mask is actually contributing to the spread of the virus? And it's got nothing at all to do with people relaxing and giving less of a crap about following the basic advice?

Well, it's an opinion I suppose.

I'll give you an example: Last month my local GAA side won the County championships and there was a couple of days of wild celebration afterwards, which everyone knew was a potentially bad idea, but people didn't give a sht. There were roughly around 80 people infected with Covid in the local area as a result. Would you blame NPHET in that instance?

Arghus · 17-11-2020 12:53AM

Maestro85 wrote: »

Do you actually think we will make it to 100 or less cases a day?

The lads I work with and my mates are all chomping at the bit t go to the pub this xmas. It's going to be a free for all sh*t show and NPHET know it.

If you'd asked me this time last week I would have felt that we had a reasonable chance, but not after the case numbers of the last few days. We might still get back on track, but I think 100 by the end of the month is a target we will not make.

Goldengirl · 17-11-2020 12:59AM

Polar101 wrote: »

I agree completely.

The problem is that when we moved to Level 5, they mentioned the silly "less than 100 cases by December 1st" target - which has never looked realistic, expect perhaps briefly last week. That created an expectation for the lockdown period and now there's some unnecessary anxiety because of that.

I know cases have gone up recently, but they've fallen in the two largest population centres (also known as Dublin and Cork) - it's still possible things will improve. Even if they don't, the situation is a lot better than it was in October.

Agree .

Also the increased incidence in older people is understandable and is 2nd degree ( infected by those infected in the first instance) infection from the 1200 a day cases , 4 to 5 weeks ago , who infected people and those people passed it to the elderly .
This is what we knew would happen all along with high community infection rates , but it got forgotten , or we didn't want to say it when all was going well and when we were having those rapid decreases in numbers .
Unfortunately that doesn't happen so fast when older people get sick with this . And once over 65s in hospital, they stay longer , so next up is a rise in hospitalisations over the next week or so .
And the fact that there are some other clusters as well contributing to this rise in numbers isn't helping , but if they are contained properly it might only push the numbers out till mid December .

17-11-2020 01:04AM

Arghus wrote: »

If you'd asked me this time last week I would have felt that we had a reasonable chance, but not after the case numbers of the last few days. We might still get back on track, but I think 100 by the end of the month is a target we will not make.

Lockdown once again hasn’t worked.
If the solution to that is more lockdown... well, we all know the definition of insanity.

Public support is simply not there anymore.
Had we opened up when cases were almost non existent, maybe there would be more public support now.

Arghus · 17-11-2020 01:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Lockdown once again hasn’t worked.
If the solution to that is more lockdown... well, we all know the definition of insanity.

Public support is simply not there anymore.
Had we opened up when cases were almost non existent, maybe there would be more public support now.

I don't know, maybe you weren't paying attention but case numbers were hitting 1200 and rising a few weeks ago and numbers in hospitals were rising steadily. Now case numbers are much reduced and numbers in hospital are falling. Can you explain to me how this proves lock down doesn't work - it would appear to prove exactly the opposite.

Once again? I don't know what you mean by once again. It did actually work in March and April you know. We weren't trying to completely eradicate the virus - the goal was to stop the aggressive growth of a virus from overwhelming our health system. We achieved that. That was the point.

blowitupref · 17-11-2020 01:20AM

HSE update

In hospital 266 (decrease of 5)
In ICU 34 (increase of 4)

ExMachina1000 · 17-11-2020 01:23AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lockdown once again hasn’t worked.
If the solution to that is more lockdown... well, we all know the definition of insanity.

Public support is simply not there anymore.
Had we opened up when cases were almost non existent, maybe there would be more public support now.

How are they managing in pretty much every other country? Countries that are seeing multiples of first wave daily cases.

We have gotten off extremely lightly by comparison

61st in the world by cases per 1 million of population

normanoffside · 17-11-2020 01:54AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

A joke. Either they are serious about controlling the spread or they are not.

It should just be outright banned.

Take half assed measures, get half assed results. Who knew?

Ah come on, even Professor Staines on Claire Byrne tonight said that gathering outside to drink is not a major risk of spread and much less risky than even a few people gathering inside.

This is just an optics move by the fun police.

s1ippy · 17-11-2020 01:56AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Just got a call from friends who are both working from home, taking no chances and they have the virus. They are 100% certain it had to come from the school and there's another family with a kid in the same class who have it at home as well. I don't know this second family but my friend says they are very careful and are adamant it had to come from the school.
There's been no confirmed cases in the class but both kids from the class have been tested and have it but are asymptomatic.
I'm waiting to hear back from them in the next couple of days as to what the HSE and the school say.

My old school had no cases, but an ex-colleague of mine said on the group chat their household has been struck down badly. She went home from school today and is awaiting a test but reckons she had fifteen close contacts during the morning between the staff room and her classroom, so it'll be interesting to see how conservative the contract tracers are.

At this stage every child in every school in the country needs to be tested.

caveat emptor · 17-11-2020 01:56AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Lockdown once again hasn’t worked.
If the solution to that is more lockdown... well, we all know the definition of insanity.

Public support is simply not there anymore.
Had we opened up when cases were almost non existent, maybe there would be more public support now.

Yeah the cases and hospitalisations came down independently of restrictions. If only there was proof that the exponential increases reversed all by themselves and savde the health system. That's really unfortunate that the two things (falling numbers and restrictions) happened at the exact same time.

Saying public support isn't there is insulting to the public. They and I see what's happening in Europe virtually everywhere and realise that while the restrictions are annoying they are effective.

JP Liz V1 · 17-11-2020 01:57AM

Eivor wrote: »

I don’t understand the panic around the cases we’re seeing right now. Are the hospitals and ICUs under pressure? I thought we were trying to keep the cases at a manageable level, not get rid of the virus.

People need to stop freaking out, the situation is nowhere near as bad as this thread would have you believe.

52 deaths so far in November and positive cases still high, some hospitals aren't managing e.g. UHL, we are in winter flu season so combining with Covid19, hospitals will be overrun which no one wants to see happen, reduce contacts and gatherings, reduce risk of spread

JP Liz V1 · 17-11-2020 02:04AM

Matt Doherty and James McClean have tested positive in the Irish soccer team

manofwisdom · 17-11-2020 02:05AM

Peter Flynt wrote: »

It's also a peculiarly Irish thing to compare ourselves to other countries as if we're doing a great job. It's embarrassing but that's the way it is I suppose.

You are easily embarrassed then but I suppose that's the way it is for some.

You or anyone else can do comparisons if you like. What it proves we are doing a lot better now than 3 or 4 weeks ago.

Maestro85 · 17-11-2020 02:19AM

Slightly off topic but I wonder what are the numbers for re-infection? Or is this something we will only be able to properly deduce months down the line when looking back (given the demand and issues for current day to day data collection)?

Maestro85 · 17-11-2020 02:21AM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

52 deaths so far in November and positive cases still high, some hospitals aren't managing e.g. UHL, we are in winter flu season so combining with Covid19, hospitals will be overrun which no one wants to see happen, reduce contacts and gatherings, reduce risk of spread

UHL has been at breaking point for years thanks to the HSE. Amazed it still manages the numbers.

Strumms · 17-11-2020 02:34AM

fleet_admiral wrote: »

You do realise people depend on pubs for a living?

You do realize the virus doesn’t give two fûcks about that ? In fact all it wants is a pub environment, little to no distancing, hot atmosphere, alcohol impairing judgements.... ie. A pub.

People can get money from the pandemic payment.

Every business that’s been impacted by covid, most industries are getting on with it, not pissing and moaning like the pub muppets.

Deeper Blue · 17-11-2020 02:39AM

Maestro85 wrote: »

Slightly off topic but I wonder what are the numbers for re-infection? Or is this something we will only be able to properly deduce months down the line when looking back (given the demand and issues for current day to day data collection)?

Confirmed reinfections are practically non-existent compared to the number of cases. 30 odd confirmed worldwide out of 54 million+ cases.

Gone Drinking · 17-11-2020 02:57AM

Strumms wrote: »

You do realize the virus doesn’t give two fûcks about that ? In fact all it wants is a pub environment, little to no distancing, hot atmosphere, alcohol impairing judgements.... ie. A pub.

People can get money from the pandemic payment.

Every business that’s been impacted by covid, most industries are getting on with it, not pissing and moaning like the pub muppets.

There's a study that suggests 100 thousand of those "pub muppets" (hospitality workers) may be jobless by the end of the year. That would have huge consequences for the encomy.

The way you talk about the pandemic payment, you'd swear money grows on trees. Where do you think it comes from and who do you think will have to pay it back?

hynesie08 · 17-11-2020 04:09AM

Strumms wrote: »

You do realize the virus doesn’t give two fûcks about that ? In fact all it wants is a pub environment, little to no distancing, hot atmosphere, alcohol impairing judgements.... ie. A pub.

People can get money from the pandemic payment.

Every business that’s been impacted by covid, most industries are getting on with it, not pissing and moaning like the pub muppets.

So pubs should just open and get on with it? Because that's how “other industries" have coped, by opening and trading......

Ficheall · 17-11-2020 06:07AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Lockdown once again hasn’t worked.

Were you not saying last week that level 3.5 had worked and that level 5 was unnecessary?

Ficheall · 17-11-2020 06:17AM

Eivor wrote: »

However, you must make your own decisions and figure out how much risk you are willing to take yourself.

The issue is that people 'calculate their own risk' and increase the risk for other people.

Also, a great many people (not suggesting you are one) are not very good at calculating full stop, never mind exponentially complex risk analysis.

eastie17 · 17-11-2020 07:31AM

prunudo wrote: »

I know the vaccine news yesterday is earlier days but he couldn't help pissing all over it.

Even to the point where he appeared to suggest they don't even have a plan with how to administer a roll out of a plan. Ah sure we'll worry about that when we have to lads, nothing to see here, it will be grand.

They don’t, only starting to plan now. Fact as Bertie would say

lemonTrees · 17-11-2020 08:10AM

Cork2021 wrote: »

Come off it!! It was obviously a plant. No tin foil hat. RTÉ are a joke!

Yes dear, it's all RTE's and imaginary actors fault.

Happydays2020 · 17-11-2020 08:20AM

The media are to blame. They have obsessed over Christmas. Government and NPHET should not have taken the bait - reduce numbers, need to ensure sacrifice is worth it, look at other countries and risks we face etc etc.

Can they not just all read from the same script.... if all goes well retail should be in a position to open up on 1 December, extremely unlikely pubs will be in a position to open, hotels should be able to open, discourage travel this year but if people do have to travel home for compassionate reasons we would urge to do x, y, z, people will be able to travel to family within Ireland but we would urge people to limit mixing........ and point to vaccines in new year. Good news on the horizon.

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 08:22AM

It’s clear to me that the government are going to use that small gathering of people at the weekend as a stick to beat us with and not open the pubs for Christmas.

I’m aware of gatherings of large numbers happening in my community on a near daily basis. They are happening indoors with little to no social distancing and behaviour among the young people like jumping on each other, playing games and touching each other. None of them are wearing masks either.

But let’s get our knickers in a twist about what? A hundred people outdoors having a pint that the Gardai attended and didn’t feel warranted any consequences???

Can we just get a grip on reality here and admit that schools are helping to spread the virus, children are not immune to this, they actually spread it. Other countries have shown this to be the case.

What happened at the weekend doesn’t help, but it’s nowhere near as big a gathering, indoors or as regular.

Now I’m not saying we should close the schools, we should just admit the reality we are in.

Pete_Cavan · 17-11-2020 08:23AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Just got a call from friends who are both working from home, taking no chances and they have the virus. They are 100% certain it had to come from the school and there's another family with a kid in the same class who have it at home as well. I don't know this second family but my friend says they are very careful and are adamant it had to come from the school.
There's been no confirmed cases in the class but both kids from the class have been tested and have it but are asymptomatic.
I'm waiting to hear back from them in the next couple of days as to what the HSE and the school say.

Alarmist and all as this post is, surely it only supports schools not being a big spreader? It obviously took time for the virus to take hold, symptoms to develop, parents get tested and results, kids get tested and results, etc. If the kids had it first and were asymptomatic, they were probably going to school with it for two weeks, in this time, you would expect other kids and their parents to have got it. You would also expect similar in just about every school in the country and exponential growth.

Once it is in a school, the lack of distancing between children should see most if not all kids there get it and bring it home to their parents. With tens of thousands of school kids plus tens of thousands more parents, the numbers would be clear to see. We know that 11,000 cases have been health care workers, there have big outbreaks in hospitals, nursing homes and other such facilities representing a significant proportion of cases, there have been workplace outbreaks, funerals, travel related clusters, etc. where are all the school cases?

Despite the claims that there has been a spike since schools went back after midterm, daily case numbers have actually been very steady, generally between 400 and 600 since 31st Oct which includes infects either side of the midterm. There was a drop to below 300 for two days which are outliers and do not support the school return spike theory. The climb to 1,000 cases per day in mid Oct was well linked with GAA county final celebrations and high case numbers in border counties due to spillover from NIs disastrous handling. That climb and subsequent drop happened while schools were in, other restrictions changed in that time but schools open has remained practically constant.

Also, the claims that Austria closing schools is proof that schools are the problem doesn't hold water. They have had much less restrictions than us and so greater spread in all settings. Their 14-day incident rate per 100,000 population is 10 times that of us, of course they are now taking more drastic action. Again this is being very selective with evidence, they are an outlier yet while the vast majority of countries who have kept schools open are ignored.

mean gene · 17-11-2020 08:47AM

normanoffside wrote: »

Ah come on, even Professor Staines on Claire Byrne tonight said that gathering outside to drink is not a major risk of spread and much less risky than even a few people gathering inside.

This is just an optics move by the fun police.

nanna will sort that out later no more beers for takeaway.

turning into a police state where you have people filming people standing outside a bar

lawrencesummers · 17-11-2020 08:48AM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Alarmist and all as this post is, surely it only supports schools not being a big spreader? It obviously took time for the virus to take hold, symptoms to develop, parents get tested and results, kids get tested and results, etc. If the kids had it first and were asymptomatic, they were probably going to school with it for two weeks, in this time, you would expect other kids and their parents to have got it. You would also expect similar in just about every school in the country and exponential growth.

Once it is in a school, the lack of distancing between children should see most if not all kids there get it and bring it home to their parents. With tens of thousands of school kids plus tens of thousands more parents, the numbers would be clear to see. We know that 11,000 cases have been health care workers, there have big outbreaks in hospitals, nursing homes and other such facilities representing a significant proportion of cases, there have been workplace outbreaks, funerals, travel related clusters, etc. where are all the school cases?

Despite the claims that there has been a spike since schools went back after midterm, daily case numbers have actually been very steady, generally between 400 and 600 since 31st Oct which includes infects either side of the midterm. There was a drop to below 300 for two days which are outliers and do not support the school return spike theory. The climb to 1,000 cases per day in mid Oct was well linked with GAA county final celebrations and high case numbers in border counties due to spillover from NIs disastrous handling. That climb and subsequent drop happened while schools were in, other restrictions changed in that time but schools open has remained practically constant.

Also, the claims that Austria closing schools is proof that schools are the problem doesn't hold water. They have had much less restrictions than us and so greater spread in all settings. Their 14-day incident rate per 100,000 population is 10 times that of us, of course they are now taking more drastic action. Again this is being very selective with evidence, they are an outlier yet while the vast majority of countries who have kept schools open are ignored.

If children don’t spread it maybe we should dissect a few of them to find out where their immunity to catching and spreading the virus stems from.

Or maybe we should admit that they do catch it, they are very effective spreaders and are almost always asymptomatic.

From the Irish times.

“Now, because children are much less likely to have severe disease or even noticeable symptoms at all, that means that an adult is more likely to be identified as the index case. And then when you go around and you sample the kids, you find the kid and you assume that the adult must have transmitted to the kid....
Prof Hanage summarised the conundrum to the Guardian: “If community transmission is low, the costs to kids of keeping schools closed are much greater than keeping them open

Pete_Cavan · 17-11-2020 08:51AM

lawrencesummers wrote: »

If children don’t spread it maybe we should dissect a few of them to find out where their immunity to catching and spreading the virus stems from.

Or maybe we should admit that they do catch it, they are very effective spreaders and are almost always asymptomatic.

Of course they catch it, yes they are almost always asymptomatic but where is the evidence that they are very effective spreaders?

Widdensushi · 17-11-2020 08:59AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Just got a call from friends who are both working from home, taking no chances and they have the virus. They are 100% certain it had to come from the school and there's another family with a kid in the same class who have it at home as well. I don't know this second family but my friend says they are very careful and are adamant it had to come from the school.
There's been no confirmed cases in the class but both kids from the class have been tested and have it but are asymptomatic.
I'm waiting to hear back from them in the next couple of days as to what the HSE and the school say.

WhatsApp call?

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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