Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not sure why your making that comment about me tbh. My point would have been some clusters are less troublesome than others, a cluster contained and traced within a household for example is less of an issue than one that can't be traced, that would have been my overall point.

For example the case of the family in Sligo that returned from overseas, albeit a decent sized cluster it was well contained therefore less of an issue.

Anyway your not disagreeing with me here, your essentially disagreeing with prof Nolan. Let's see what he says come Thursday.

That aged well. You have a tendency to downplay any negative trends as noted before. Prof Nolan is a modeller using data that's 10 days old or so which paints a different picture btw.'

Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said: “Analysis of today’s data shows the 5-day moving average of case numbers has increased from 354 to 392. We have seen higher numbers in recent days than we expected based on the encouraging trends of the last three weeks. We are concerned that this progress is at risk. We have to remember that the virus is still very active in the community and we cannot let our guard slip. NPHET will continue to monitor the situation closely over the coming days.

“We all need to focus on what we can do to stop the spread of this disease; wash our hands regularly, wear a face covering, keep our distance from others, avoid crowds, limit our social network, know the symptoms, self-isolate and contact a GP if we have them. Stay at home and restrict our movements if you are a close contact of a confirmed case."

5 day average increase because they added 80 to the positive swabs today

5 day average goes up nearly 2 weeks after schools come back.

wadacrack wrote: »

That aged well. You have a tendency to downplay any negative trends as noted before. Prof Nolan is modeller using data thats 10 days old or so which paints a different picture btw.

Dr. Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health, said: “Analysis of today’s data shows the 5-day moving average of case numbers has increased from 354 to 392. We have seen higher numbers in recent days than we expected based on the encouraging trends of the last three weeks. We are concerned that this progress is at risk. We have to remember that the virus is still very active in the community and we cannot let our guard slip. NPHET will continue to monitor the situation closely over the coming days.

“We all need to focus on what we can do to stop the spread of this disease; wash our hands regularly, wear a face covering, keep our distance from others, avoid crowds, limit our social network, know the symptoms, self-isolate and contact a GP if we have them. Stay at home and restrict our movements if you are a close contact of a confirmed case."

And again you feel a need to make a personal comment for some reason. Whatever keeps you happy I guess. We can only go off the data infront of us, so not sure how the point hasn't aged well.

Anyway for numbers I'd sooner listen to prof Nolan than anyone else.

Did you expect the CMO to say anything else??

Honestly don't know what point your trying to make, we can all read a statement.

Anyway no point in replying further because we'll just be going around in circles, your trying to argue against modeling data, wait until Thursday to see what the latest data is then you'll see if your right

I hadn’t thought of Halloween

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Interesting theory there for Halloween. What are we 2 weeks now since then. Few more house parties etc that weekend, who knows really, wait and see for the coming days

Halloween should have manifested itself in the numbers 5 or so days ago. Most people show symptoms 3 to 5 days after exposure, allowing a day or two for the test and result.

A possible and more concerning reason is that the lvl5 measures have reached the maximum of their effectiveness potential. This lockdown isn't nearly as comprehensive as the first and this level of infection might be the best we can achieve with the current restrictions.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Halloween should have manifested itself in the numbers 5 or so days ago. Most people show symptoms 3 to 5 days after exposure, allowing a day or two for the test and result.

A possible and more concerning reason is that the lvl5 measures have reached the maximum of their effectiveness potential. This lockdown isn't nearly as comprehensive as the first and this level of infection might be the best we can achieve with the current restrictions.

Is the correct answer.;)

polesheep wrote: »

Given that the buy-in to restrictions this time around is nothing like the last lockdown, the numbers are excellent and hospital numbers are dropping.

Gravity can't be defied unfortunately.

It's the same people over and over again since the start of the pandemic claiming this is not the case, that gravity actually can be defied.

Nothing has changed between March and today. It's the equivalent of a flat earth argument. "Open the pubs and it will be fine" etc. It's not true, they know it's not true but it's like a belief system. If we all just believed more everything would be fine.

A big part of the reason some get really upset is because of the stratospheric wishful thinking. You see the same psychology on here as well manifest itself sometimes in outright denial in it's purest form.

None of this changes the reality. The restrictions are irritating but are needed unfortunately.

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/andrewflood/status/1327679541507186688?s=19


https://covid19.shanehastings.eu/api/swabs/

I was just going to put forward, the Halloween hypothesis, interesting to see it being hinted in graph trajectory.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Halloween should have manifested itself in the numbers 5 or so days ago. Most people show symptoms 3 to 5 days after exposure, allowing a day or two for the test

Yes, but if a large portion of people who gathered at halloween were asytomatic, then there may have been a lag from secondary contacts being infected and showing up in the numbers. That's exactly what happened in Canada after Thanksgiving:

'It’s not that we were flat and all of a sudden Thanksgiving happened and there we see an increase,” says Dr. Laura Rosella, associate professor and epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto. But, she adds, “the reason why we’re fairly confident Thanksgiving did increase cases is that we saw our highest numbers yet in the two weeks following Thanksgiving, which is consistent with the incubation period, when people would show symptoms and get reported.”

Furthermore, Rosella says Canada’s post-Thanksgiving increases are coming even as it’s getting harder for some Canadians to get tested; more cases with less testing suggests truly explosive growth. “Because our testing was getting strained, the requirements for getting a test actually became stricter,” she says. “So we’re seeing more cases even though we had to change the criteria for testing such that only those who are in high-risk situations and are symptomatic are getting tested.”



Rosella also added that contact tracing efforts showed that Thanksgiving gatherings directly resulted in viral spread—useful and informative information that wouldn’t show up in the overall numbers above, but underscore the importance of an effective testing and tracing program.


“Although we didn’t see a huge surge in the number of cases in Ontario and Quebec, what’s actually striking is that we didn’t see the decrease that you would have expected to see as a result of those lockdown measures,” says Oughton. “One of the theories is that at the same time the lockdown measures should have been bringing things down, it was actually Thanksgiving pushing those numbers back up.”

https://time.com/5910635/thanksgiving-covid-19/

ETA: Interestingly a lot of places in US who are big into Halloween celebrations, are demonstrating spikes that have been linked to the holiday.. lots of media hits.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Sure the gardai could always move groups on under public order legislation, didn't need any new powers to do so and I don't think they have any new powers unless its an organised event.

People drinking pints outside has been going on a good while so don't see a problem with it myself tbh

Ah you'll have the usual gobshxxx jumping on this to say leave the kids alone blah .
Some of these groups are more than just " drinking pints outside " which I have no problem with by the way , just keep your distance and keep in mind that businesses and hospitals and everyone else is depending on this lockdown to bring down numbers .
A little more effort from some is all that is being asked .

By the way not calling you a gobshxxx , edit :0

ACitizenErased wrote: »

5 day average increase because they added 80 to the positive swabs today

Are these positive swabs ones which were missed before or where did they come from?