Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Renjit · 14-11-2020 02:56PM

Tin foil hat conspiracies floating around in this thread

People will never change.

wakka12 · 14-11-2020 03:11PM

GT89 wrote: »

This why I suspect so many countries made masks mandatory. Think about it if they can make masks mandatory to go into a shop or public transport they make vaccines mandatory. Everyone who get's the vaccine will get a qr code to scan at the entrance to supermarkets, buses, public buildings, ticket barriers in train stations and all public buildings.

Don't have this qr code and go into these places either be denied entry or be in breach of the law if the establishment allows you in anyway like some do not wearing masks in places where it's required. Some countries the vaccine will be mandatory to go outside the door I suspect like the way in some countries masks are also mandatory on the street.

That is why it is mandatory to wear a mask and not just reccomended or advisory.

Swings both ways, why should you be entitled to avail of services others are using if you put others in danger by using them?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 14-11-2020 03:48PM

GT89 wrote: »

But mandatory mask laws are not being made by businesses they are being made by governments. Also why are countries like Spain, France and certain US states requiring citizens to wear masks at all times outdoors not just in shops, on public transport etc but outdoors.

Also whilst businesses are allowed refuse people they are not allowed to discriminate, right?

Mainly to stop people putting it on and off. Oddly masks touch your mouth and nose. Therefore if there is coronavirus on the mask you will get infected. If people don't have sense to disinfect their hands before touching the mask (to take off and put on) they are taking a risk because they re essentially going hand to mouth.

GT89 · 14-11-2020 04:18PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Mainly to stop people putting it on and off. Oddly masks touch your mouth and nose. Therefore if there is coronavirus on the mask you will get infected. If people don't have sense to disinfect their hands before touching the mask (to take off and put on) they are taking a risk because they re essentially going hand to mouth.

So masks are basically increasing people's chances of getting covid.

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 04:22PM

388 positive swabs from 9,555 tests.
4.06% positivity

Jim_Hodge · 14-11-2020 04:30PM

GT89 wrote: »

So masks are basically increasing people's chances of getting covid.

You're trying to twist the explanation to fit your view. You know rightly the post didn't say any such thing. Any protocol to further reduce risk does not imply lesser protocols induce or increase risk.

wadacrack · 14-11-2020 04:31PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

388 positive swabs from 9,555 tests.
4.06% positivity

Ro unlikely to be 0.5 atm. The models they use figures from about 10 days ago

Stheno · 14-11-2020 04:43PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Ro unlikely to be 0.5 atm. The models they use figures from about 10 days ago

You think its lower?

wadacrack · 14-11-2020 04:47PM

Stheno wrote: »

You think its lower?

Higher. Closer to 1

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 04:48PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Ro unlikely to be 0.5 atm. The models they use figures from about 10 days ago

0.6 - 0.8 was the latest confidence interval.

Unlikely to be 0.5 but indicators still reducing week on week. Most certainly under 1 and not increasing beyond what was given on Thursday.

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 04:49PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Higher. Closer to 1

Highly unlikely. All indicators still reducing as I mentioned in another post. Unlikely to have dropped beyond the 0.6 - 0.8 interval given on Thursday but not back up to 1.

Raind I think it was posted charts which were very accurate on an on going basis. Would be good to see one of them again

ACitizenErased · 14-11-2020 04:54PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Higher. Closer to 1

Yeah, no.

wadacrack · 14-11-2020 04:58PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Highly unlikely. All indicators still reducing as I mentioned in another post. Unlikely to have dropped beyond the 0.6 - 0.8 interval given on Thursday but not back up to 1.

Raind I think it was posted charts which were very accurate on an on going basis. Would be good to see one of them again

It could definately be 1 atm. You did claim in the summer that clusters were no peiblem etc. Their is a lag with confirming cases

owlbethere · 14-11-2020 04:58PM

majcos wrote: »

I know US figures are bad but it still shocked me to see the numbers below. It suggests their case numbers are far worse than those confirmed cases numbers as likely missing many cases when have such a high positivity rate.

Positivity rate in last 7 days

South Dakota 58.8%
Kansas 58.7%
Iowa 52.6%
Wyoming 43.4%
Idaho 39.4%

For comparison, Ireland’s 7 day positivity rate now 3.5%

It's out of control there for sure and it will surely get worse there with thanksgiving and black friday approaching and half of their population with no no sense or civil duty to keep themselves and others around them safe from virus, sickness and disease.

Away With The Fairies · 14-11-2020 05:00PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Mandatory vaccine not the way the go, need education on why its important to take it etc.

Did we get education on the wearing of masks?

ACitizenErased · 14-11-2020 05:01PM

wadacrack wrote: »

It could definately be 1 atm. You did claim in the summer that clusters were no peiblem etc. Their is a lag with confirming cases

What would suddenly cause it to jump from 0.5 to 1 with most people at home? It doesn't work like that.

wadacrack · 14-11-2020 05:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What would suddenly cause it to jump from 0.5 to 1 with most people at home? It doesn't work like that.

The parameters chane with lower case counts. 0.5 may not have been accurate more room with error with higher numbers. R0 of 1 is still stable.In my own experience compliance has slipped a little

ACitizenErased · 14-11-2020 05:09PM

wadacrack wrote: »

The parameters chane with lower case counts. 0.5 may not have been accurate more room with error with higher numbers. R0 of 1 is still stable.In my own experience compliance has slipped a little

Prof. Nolan's comments at the briefing Thursday don't agree with that assumption.

NH2013 · 14-11-2020 05:12PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What would suddenly cause it to jump from 0.5 to 1 with most people at home? It doesn't work like that.

To be honest I'm actually in the camp of thinking the R0 isn't close to 0.5 or 0.6 anymore given the reduction in rate of decrease over the past 5-6 days. Now I'm only basing this on pure guesswork but I'd say its currently closer to 0.8-0.9. Still decreasing and not increasing, but no where close to the same level of decrease we'd been seeing for the previous 3 weeks.

I'm gonna throw this theory out there, but to be honest I don't think the lockdown itself is working, or ever did. I think the only thing that worked back in March, and again at in the last 3-4 weeks, was fear.

In March, everyone was afraid, numbers surged, we didn't know anything about it so we all hid away, reduced contacts and the numbers went down.

Same again 3-4 weeks ago, we hit a number of days of over 1,000 cases, numbers were skyrocketing and the numbers in hospitals doubled in the space of 2 weeks, people copped on and realised something needed to change, they limited contacts, cancelled plans for the weekend etc. At the same time lockdown occured. Numbers started diving again, people started to relax, the fear of the virus this past week has been nowhere close to the fear of it 3-4 weeks ago as a result of the ability we had to control it, so people have again decided that actually it's not that risky, I'll just pop over to 1-2 other people for a coffee/chat/dinner etc and we see the reduction slow down.

I think this has been the way it's been all along, the virus was never massively transmitted in work places or barbers/hairdressers/cafés etc, particularly during the outdoor dining stage. It was always down to personal behaviours and the numbers of contacts we had, people cut those back massively 3-4 weeks ago, the cases shot down, people see the situation getting under control now so are happy to take a few more risks/meet more people etc.

Ultimately I think there's little the government actually can do, lockdowns work but only in so far as they highlight to people the importance of the situation, the measures themselves I don't think are entirely effective, it all comes down to compliance and personal behaviour.

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 05:17PM

wadacrack wrote: »

It could definately be 1 atm. You did claim in the summer that clusters were no peiblem etc. Their is a lag with confirming cases

Not sure why your making that comment about me tbh. My point would have been some clusters are less troublesome than others, a cluster contained and traced within a household for example is less of an issue than one that can't be traced, that would have been my overall point.

For example the case of the family in Sligo that returned from overseas, albeit a decent sized cluster it was well contained therefore less of an issue.

Anyway your not disagreeing with me here, your essentially disagreeing with prof Nolan. Let's see what he says come Thursday.

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 05:24PM

NH2013 wrote: »

To be honest I'm actually in the camp of thinking the R0 isn't close to 0.5 or 0.6 anymore given the reduction in rate of decrease over the past 5-6 days. Now I'm only basing this on pure guesswork but I'd say its currently closer to 0.8-0.9. Still decreasing and not increasing, but no where close to the same level of decrease we'd been seeing for the previous 3 weeks.

I'm gonna throw this theory out there, but to be honest I don't think the lockdown itself is working, or ever did. I think the only thing that worked back in March, and again at in the last 3-4 weeks, was fear.

In March, everyone was afraid, numbers surged, we didn't know anything about it so we all hid away, reduced contacts and the numbers went down.

Same again 3-4 weeks ago, we hit a number of days of over 1,000 cases, numbers were skyrocketing and the numbers in hospitals doubled in the space of 2 weeks, people copped on and realised something needed to change, they limited contacts, cancelled plans for the weekend etc. At the same time lockdown occured. Numbers started diving again, people started to relax, the fear of the virus this past week has been nowhere close to the fear of it 3-4 weeks ago as a result of the ability we had to control it, so people have again decided that actually it's not that risky, I'll just pop over to 1-2 other people for a coffee/chat/dinner etc and we see the reduction slow down.

I think this has been the way it's been all along, the virus was never massively transmitted in work places or barbers/hairdressers/cafés etc, particularly during the outdoor dining stage. It was always down to personal behaviours and the numbers of contacts we had, people cut those back massively 3-4 weeks ago, the cases shot down, people see the situation getting under control now so are happy to take a few more risks/meet more people etc.

Ultimately I think there's little the government actually can do, lockdowns work but only in so far as they highlight to people the importance of the situation, the measures themselves I don't think are entirely effective, it all comes down to compliance and personal behaviour.

What looks like has / is happening is you get your initial exponential decay, we can see that happened here in the first few weeks of level 5, mainly probably due to the nationwide 3 with the threat of 5, but then 5 kicked in.

Eventually that exponential decay slows down as numbers get lower which is where I think we are now. Personally I never thought under 100 cases in 6 weeks was realistic, said that at the start. Based on the HSE testing data and the GP data there still isn't high demand in the community for testing at the moment, thats continuing to decrease and shows in the swabs per week being processed so theres metrics still trending downward in terms of the wider community which would suggest the public are still doing enough to keep it under wraps.

Fear played a part 100% and as you say that's not there anymore but realistically this isn't a lockdown, not in the sense of what we had earlier in the year. Most people can still go about their business day to day as they would have in level 3.

caveat emptor · 14-11-2020 05:35PM

CoronaBlocker wrote: »

You spit the words out like he was the devil but there's nothing illegal in what the CEO did - he hadn't loaded up on shares the week before or anything - but even if he had it wouldn't be a problem. I did it though - I bought Pfizer shares for $35 at the end of October on news that Pfizer were building two factories specifically for vaccine production (Newstalk) and on the expectations of a November release (BBC). I sold the shares just after opening on Monday for $40 - that's a 12% increase on my investment and I did that with absolutely no insider knowledge - none. It was all based on publicly sourced information and done via an online trading portal that anyone can sign up to use. Anyone could have done what he or I did - don't hate us for it :cool:

Regarding the vaccine - I'll be in the queue as soon as possible.

Nice one, well done. You say 12 % but it’s actually 8%. Thanks for giving 4% to revenue. God knows we need it.

MerlinSouthDub · 14-11-2020 05:36PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What would suddenly cause it to jump from 0.5 to 1 with most people at home? It doesn't work like that.

The rate will depend on what parts of the community it infects. You can be unlucky. For example, we know in the meat plants, one person can spread to dozens of others and the reproductive rate is much higher. So, you can get ups and downs along the way. I'm hopeful we'll see cases falling again this week. Fingers crossed!

NH2013 · 14-11-2020 05:38PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What looks like has / is happening is you get your initial exponential decay, we can see that happened here in the first few weeks of level 5, mainly probably due to the nationwide 3 with the threat of 5, but then 5 kicked in.

Eventually that exponential decay slows down as numbers get lower which is where I think we are now. Personally I never thought under 100 cases in 6 weeks was realistic, said that at the start. Based on the HSE testing data and the GP data there still isn't high demand in the community for testing at the moment, thats continuing to decrease and shows in the swabs per week being processed so theres metrics still trending downward in terms of the wider community which would suggest the public are still doing enough to keep it under wraps.

Fear played a part 100% and as you say that's not there anymore but realistically this isn't a lockdown, not in the sense of what we had earlier in the year. Most people can still go about their business day to day as they would have in level 3.

I agree but the issue with R0 is that it is exponential, with an R0 of 0.5-0.6 we should be seeing cases half roughtly every 10 days or so, and from the looks of it that's stalled in the last 4-6 days, hopefully it's just a few large clusters that have swung it, but we'll certainly have a better picture in the next 3-4 days of it was just a temporary lull in the reduction of cases or if infact the R0 is now closer to 0.8-0.9.

My opinion is just that it is almost entirely based on fear and perceived risk, guided by messages of advice from the state.

Also guess the impact of NI is being felt as well with their crazy numbers spilling over into the border counties. With their hospitals so full and numbers still not improving though perhaps that in and of itself pours cold water on my theory it's fear alone that controls the virus.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 14-11-2020 05:43PM

GT89 wrote: »

So masks are basically increasing people's chances of getting covid.

Idiots are increasing their chance of getting covid. Whether it's masks or washing their hands idiots are idiots.

stephenjmcd · 14-11-2020 05:46PM

NH2013 wrote: »

I agree but the issue with R0 is that it is exponential, with an R0 of 0.5-0.6 we should be seeing cases half roughtly every 10 days or so, and from the looks of it that's stalled in the last 4-6 days, hopefully it's just a few large clusters that have swung it, but we'll certainly have a better picture in the next 3-4 days of it was just a temporary lull in the reduction of cases or if infact the R0 is now closer to 0.8-0.9.

My opinion is just that it is almost entirely based on fear and perceived risk, guided by messages of advice from the state.

Also guess the impact of NI is being felt as well with their crazy numbers spilling over into the border counties. With their hospitals so full and numbers still not improving though perhaps that in and of itself pours cold water on my theory it's fear alone that controls the virus.

I'm not at the laptop at the moment but very briefly just went over the numbers for the last 2 weeks. Seeing as today is Saturday and we don't yet have the numbers I went Saturday 31st to Friday 6th and then Sat 7th to Friday 13th yesterday.

31st - 6th - 3479 cases
7th - 13th - 2561 cases

Based on that, the estimate given on Thursday of 0.6-0.8 would seem fairly close to being spot on

eigrod · 14-11-2020 05:52PM

254 in hospital- a reduction of 100 since 27th Oct.

32 in ICU - a reduction of 12 since 31st Oct.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/hospitals-icu--testing

Steve012 · 14-11-2020 06:25PM

Not a feasible solution but one that would definitely work.

Simple really, close all the worlds borders for about 8/9 months, C19 would die out. No need for an RNA vaccine. Out of curiosity would many of you folks on this thread take the vaccine?

odyssey06 · 14-11-2020 06:28PM

Steve012 wrote: »

Not a feasible solution but one that would definitely work.
Simple really, close all the worlds borders for about 8/9 months, C19 would die out. No need for an RNA vaccine. Out of curiosity would many of you folks on this thread take the vaccine?

Would it work if the virus became endemic in a large 'reservoir' country e.g. the US, Brazil, Indonesia, India...

I'd take the vaccine when my number comes up in the queue.

hmmm · 14-11-2020 06:29PM

Steve012 wrote: »

Simple really, close all the worlds borders for about 8/9 months, C19 would die out. No need for an RNA vaccine. Out of curiosity would many of you folks on this thread take the vaccine?

It'd be a lot easier for all of us if the anti-everything group would just get vaccinated and let us move on with our lives.

I don't really understand why anyone is happy to take their chances with this virus, who knows what the long term impacts are going to be even on the "non vulnerable". A vaccine based on one small part of the virus is going to be a lot safer than taking your chances with Covid.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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