Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Jim_Hodge · 11-11-2020 04:56PM

titan18 wrote: »

I reckon our initial allocation will be tiny. Can easily see the fools in government going to the EU that our numbers are ok here, you're worse off, we'll be nice and leave you have more doses.

That's an absurd notion. Allocations have been agreed on a pro rata to population basis. The vaccine will not be administered based on current case - that would be a worthless exercise.

11-11-2020 04:57PM

Another interesting observation, to me anyway, on the positive rate data.

By looking at the difference between the 7 day average positive rate and daily average positive rate you can get a measure of the change in trend. Negative equals growing, positive equals falling. The inflection point tells us when case growth starts and stops and when measure reach the limit of their effectiveness. We can see in June where as things came under control this measure hit zero. In late July this went negative as the meat plant outbreaks were seeding. This stayed until end of September before accelerating. The inflection point then came on the 21st of October and has been stable for 10 days. What we would expect to see is this gap taper off as level 5 reaches its limit of effectiveness towards zero. An infection to negative will indicate a return to growth

titan18 · 11-11-2020 05:01PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

That's an absurd notion. Allocations have been agreed on a pro rata to population basis. The vaccine will not be administered based on current case - that would be a worthless exercise.

Our allocation is still tiny then. We're about 1% of the EU population. Considering Pfizer saying 50m doses by year end globally, and I'll take an assumption, most of that is US and EU, we're getting a tiny amount

Jim_Hodge · 11-11-2020 05:08PM

titan18 wrote: »

Our allocation is still tiny then. We're about 1% of the EU population. Considering Pfizer saying 50m doses by year end globally, and I'll take an assumption, most of that is US and EU, we're getting a tiny amount

And relative to population each country's allocation will initially be small. That's what a pro rata distribution means. What do you want? Ireland to get 10% of global production? But at least you're no longer maintaining the government will decline an allocation.

DOCARCH · 11-11-2020 05:13PM

Italy reporting 623 deaths today.

11-11-2020 05:20PM

titan18 wrote: »

2.5m would be on the high side but you'd be looking at 1.5m probably. There were about 640k over 65 in the cso in 2016. Considering HSE have over 60 as vulnerable, that's probably another 100k.

Add in all the below which HSE also define as high risk and those numbers are adding up.

have a learning disability
have a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)
have heart disease (such as heart failure)
have high blood pressure (hypertension)
have diabetes
have chronic kidney disease
have liver disease (such as hepatitis)
have a medical condition that can affect your breathing
have cancer
have clinically stable cystic fibrosis
have a weak immune system (immunosuppressed)
have cerebrovascular disease
have a condition affecting your brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis, or cerebral palsy)
have a problem with your spleen or have had your spleen removed
have a condition that means you have a high risk of getting infections (such as HIV, lupus or scleroderma)
are taking medicine that can affect your immune system (such as low doses of steroids)
have obesity
are residents of nursing homes and other long-stay settings
are in specialist disability care and are over 50 years of age or have an underlying health problem

Wow ....

CIARAN_BOYLE · 11-11-2020 05:23PM

titan18 wrote: »

Our allocation is still tiny then. We're about 1% of the EU population. Considering Pfizer saying 50m doses by year end globally, and I'll take an assumption, most of that is US and EU, we're getting a tiny amount

Am expecting 280k in January and 2 million in 2021 based on comments by the Italian Health team yesterday adjusted on a pro-rata basis.

I don't know if those numbers are doses (we each need 2 doses) or people covered by the allocation.

DOCARCH · 11-11-2020 05:29PM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Italy reporting 623 deaths today.

And....UK reporting 595 deaths today.

titan18 · 11-11-2020 05:34PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

And relative to population each country's allocation will initially be small. That's what a pro rata distribution means. What do you want? Ireland to get 10% of global production? But at least you're no longer maintaining the government will decline an allocation.

No, of course not. Although tbh, I do think there should be a weighting to how much damage it's done to the country/economies/health. I'd think most EU countries deserve more than likes of Brazil or US, and since we'd be paying for poorer countries doses, we should obviously be getting priority over those.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised by anything Martin or Varadkar do tbh.

marno21 · 11-11-2020 05:34PM

That's just the Pfizer vaccine.

We should very soon see results from the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine too which is also in mass production. It doesn't have the logistical issues of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine which will make it more readily distributable. And that's before we start on Moderna/J&J/Sanofi.

seamus · 11-11-2020 05:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

3 weeks in a row now we have had a spike in the positive rate on a Wednesday, before resuming the previous trend. If would be interesting to know how this happens as cannot be random. Why would more positive samples be tested on a Tuesday?

My suspicion is that someone feels sick on a Friday/Saturday/Sunday, they might ignore it or otherwise hope that it goes away. Calling the GP, having to isolate and wait for a test interferes with plans to clean/garden/go hiking/etc.

Come Monday, rather than go into work and risk exposing co-workers, they ring up the GP and get a referral for a test. Thus we have a "backlog" of cases not seeking a test for two days after the onset of symptoms.

During the week it's not the same. If someone feels sick on Tuesday, they'll ring the GP.

I also wonder what impact contact tracing has on it. Is there a drop on contact tracing calls made on weekends?

Just a guess, but it would explain why there's a small "surge" of cases reported up to midnight Tuesday.

Gael23 · 11-11-2020 05:46PM

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-says-country-may-reopen-more-than-planned-in-december-1034968.html?fbclid=IwAR1X8CXvKWJaV9zuj6WIZvIVVX-FuWr2_bpayiE33RLkh_oN6xl8_rt3YH4

zinfandel · 11-11-2020 05:47PM

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

Correction, their goal would appear to prevent as many Covid deaths as possible. Take a look at the backlogs we have now for cancer screenings, smear tests etc. and have a look at the survival rates of many cancers.

You are correct on one thing, I am flippant in relation to the seriousness of Covid compared to more serious diseases that are undoubtedly being missed because of this lunacy.

are you mad , have you not seen the rising cases and deaths all over europe and the States, many countries smaller than us are having huge figures coming through , that's what we are trying to avoid as well as the hospitals getting overrun in which case no one with cancer or any other illness will get a bed either.

Hector Savage · 11-11-2020 05:55PM

Gas the way after the good news from yesterday the media are disappointed and need to scare and fear monger with this news that after 6 months no immunity.

They really are the enemy of the people.

11-11-2020 05:56PM

zinfandel wrote: »

are you mad , have you not seen the rising cases and deaths all over europe and the States, many countries smaller than us are having huge figures coming through , that's what we are trying to avoid as well as the hospitals getting overrun in which case no one with cancer or any other illness will get a bed either.

He has a point though. In your scenario the ICUs would be overrun. Cancer screenings etc are a different part of the hospital system, which at the moment is barely operating. And these will kill much younger and "saveable" people than COVID will.

No one has put numbers on this but I'm willing to bet that the deaths from this will be more and younger than a pretty bad COVID situation. The nursing homes are being decimated here despite the lockdown.

Don't understand why this isn't even a topic of discussion TBH. I guess it doesn't make for sexy headlines.

Hector Savage · 11-11-2020 05:57PM

Gael23 wrote: »

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/taoiseach-says-country-may-reopen-more-than-planned-in-december-1034968.html?fbclid=IwAR1X8CXvKWJaV9zuj6WIZvIVVX-FuWr2_bpayiE33RLkh_oN6xl8_rt3YH4

Just don;t know what to believe , then you have the independent saying lockdowns on and off for another year minimum ...

ACitizenErased · 11-11-2020 05:59PM

Nearly state in the US has uncontrolled spread according to covidexitstrategy.com

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wadacrack · 11-11-2020 06:03PM

I think being too aggressive opening up will be a mistake. Christmas could become very hard for some families if we open up in early December.

ACitizenErased · 11-11-2020 06:05PM

wadacrack wrote: »

I think being too aggressive opening up will be a mistake. Christmas could become very hard for some families if we open up in early December.

The opposite is the exact same.

Gael23 · 11-11-2020 06:05PM

I think it will get 2 weeks of level 3 then move to le el 2 for Christmas

boggerman1 · 11-11-2020 06:08PM

It’s amazing since the announcement of a vaccine on Monday nphet and the hse going out of its way to release bad news.cant open up,no Christmas etc etc.its getting boring

wadacrack · 11-11-2020 06:10PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The opposite is the exact same.

Its not the exact same at all tbh

hmmm · 11-11-2020 06:13PM

wadacrack wrote: »

I think being too aggressive opening up will be a mistake. Christmas could become very hard for some families if we open up in early December.

It's a very silly thing to say. Under-promise and over-deliver, not the other way around. Now he has created expectations, and worse, vague expectations which will cause every lobby group to leap into action.

11-11-2020 06:13PM

Soon after the implications of lockdown became evident people began to ask the obvious question: ‘Is the cure worse than the disease?’ (Miles et al., 2020). Governments began to seek cost-effective policies that would enable them to exit the lockdown without setting off a renewed surge of infection. Although they are speculative in nature and limited in their methodology, the simulations presented here and their underlying theory may throw some light on government policy.

The original motivation for the lockdown was a fear that the health system would be overwhelmed if the disease were to get out of hand. However, this does not explain why the lockdown continued for such a long time. The explanation may be inertia or excessive caution. Or it may be that the government (and the public) values the lives of potential COVID-19 victims far more highly than those of certain other types of victim. Whatever the explanation, it is clear that government policy towards the COVID-19 disease has not been subject to the same forensic cost–benefit analysis that is applied in other areas of health policy. .

In his Covid Economics paper, Rowthorn (2020) argued that, if a relatively inexpensive way can be found to maintain an r value close to 1, this is the policy to aim for in the medium term. A lockdown may (or may not) be necessary to halt the explosive spread of the disease, but once this aim has been achieved it would be a costly mistake to stick with expensive social distancing policies that aim to keep r well below 1. This conclusion is reinforced by our example of test and trace. If there is an effective test and trace system in the offing, it may even be optimal to let r exceed 1 during the weeks before this system becomes operational. This will cause infection to increase somewhat, but the potential explosion will be prevented when test and trace comes on stream. The same is true during the run-up to mass vaccination.

One issue that this paper has not dealt with is that of ignorance. We have assumed that there is a menu of known policies, with known effects, from which the government can choose at will. In fact governments and their advisors may have very limited knowledge about the disease and potential policies, and they may be reluctant to experiment because they are concerned about the risk of a mistake.

Despite these caveats, we believe that the approach adopted in this paper provides a useful framework for thinking about policy choices and their timing.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7499782/

wadacrack · 11-11-2020 06:19PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's a very silly thing to say. Under-promise and over-deliver, not the other way around. Now he has created expectations, and worse, vague expectations which will cause every lobby group to leap into action.

I think level 3 would be good for business and could work until a vaccine etc. For the Taoiseach to now raise expectations is not wise. Some people maybe are expecting a normal Christmas now

Hector Savage · 11-11-2020 06:22PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

It’s amazing since the announcement of a vaccine on Monday nphet and the hse going out of its way to release bad news.cant open up,no Christmas etc etc.its getting boring

Of course, this is the game they've been playing from the start, as soon as there is any good news, scare monger and fear monger to max ... can you imagine when all this is over (in about 900 years according to media) you'll have "journalists" trawling Chinese news sites just looking for the first small sign of a new virus.

Hoping and praying it becomes - to use Pope Bill Gates term - Pandemic II...

Hector Savage · 11-11-2020 06:24PM

So will Leo and his SS storm troopers allow me to come home for Christmas ? I am in Spain - epicentre of the Covid (funny hospitals aren't so busy tho) ....

prunudo · 11-11-2020 06:28PM

wadacrack wrote: »

I think level 3 would be good for business and could work until a vaccine etc. For the Taoiseach to now raise expectations is not wise. Some people maybe are expecting a normal Christmas now

It certainly won't be a regular festive period but it would be nice to have some what normality, like being allowe to visit family and friends in other counties and even getting out for a few pints over a meal.

PCeeeee · 11-11-2020 06:31PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

So will Leo and his SS storm troopers allow me to come home for Christmas ? I am in Spain - epicentre of the Covid (funny hospitals aren't so busy tho) ....

Whats stopping you coming home? Book a flight. Get on. You are allowed travel

is_that_so · 11-11-2020 06:32PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

It’s amazing since the announcement of a vaccine on Monday nphet and the hse going out of its way to release bad news.cant open up,no Christmas etc etc.its getting boring

Their thinking, badly communicated IMO, is that we'll relax too much and the number of cases may not come down enough. HSE are more positive and Reid did say vaccine data was good news.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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