Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

speckle · 11-11-2020 03:43PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Waay more than 14, just 14 that were genetically sequenced before and after, and this coronavirus is only 10 months old.
For other coronavirus you'd expect 9months to a year immunity after infection?

Also, as I understand, there are many different strains out there, some immune to antibodies.. 27 discovered circulating in humans.

https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-mutations-washington-university,-mayo-and-harvard-scientist-identify-new-48-sars-cov-2-rbd-mutations-resistant-to-antibodies

Interesting.. must read the pre print.. but one question rightly or wrongly straight away springs to mind... Are 'lockdowns' putting pressure on the virus to mutate into more strains/variants rather than finding an equilibruim of one or two major ones or slowly metamorphsising between each new slight sub strain/variant? I remember reading some research on this earlier ...must root it out. Taking into account that some new strains might be milder we need more info. Thanks

Eod100 · 11-11-2020 03:45PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Can't really be done without border closures as the numbers would be far too big to manage. Martin said no to it, back in July .

I think the thinking is it would act as a deterrent to stop a lot of non-essential travel but agree Christmas a lot different than other time of year in terms of potential incoming flights.

Jimson · 11-11-2020 03:52PM

so 93% of people who died had underlying conditions of the 1,963 who died.

Why is coronavirus be blown out of proportion.

Open up the country to feck.

Ficheall · 11-11-2020 03:57PM

Jimson wrote: »

so 93% of people who died had underlying conditions of the 1,963 who died.

What underlying conditions were they?

quokula · 11-11-2020 03:57PM

Jimson wrote: »

so 93% of people who died had underlying conditions of the 1,963 who died.

Why is coronavirus be blown out of proportion.

Open up the country to feck.

Let's just get ahead of the curve and kill anyone with minor long term health issues now, their lives are worth less than you getting to have a few pints after all.

11-11-2020 04:01PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

The way the Times and the Indo are reporting that is woeful, the Hiqa report isn't much better prepared as its based on 14 cases worldwide.

Its looking purely at igG levels in the blood, a quick bit of research shows T cells are more important and its an evolving area. T cell tests are also in the pipeline, it'll be interesting to see how accurate they are.

I think part of the problem is the whole concept of reinfection is framed badly. Instead of asking can I get the virus again a more important question is what happens if/when I do? Is the immune system better prepared and better equipped to deal with it a second time? So far the evidence is leaning towards the answer being yes.

Spudman_20000 · 11-11-2020 04:03PM

quokula wrote: »

Let's just get ahead of the curve and kill anyone with minor long term health issues now, their lives are worth less than you getting to have a few pints after all.

From RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1111/1177367-coronavirus-ireland/

"Overall, 1,963 people have so far died due to Covid-19 during the pandemic.

New data yesterday confirmed that 93% of them also suffered from one or more underlying medical conditions.

The most common underlying condition was chronic heart disease followed by Chronic Neurological Disease such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease."

Hardly minor health issues. Likely the normal flu would have had similar outcomes.

is_that_so · 11-11-2020 04:03PM

Ficheall wrote: »

What underlying conditions were they?

From CSO report

Chronic heart disease was by far the most common underlying condition among those who died with the virus, accounting for 44 per cent of cases. Other underlying conditions included kidney disease, liver disease, neurological disease, respiratory disease, cancer and diabetes.

Jimson · 11-11-2020 04:05PM

Ficheall wrote: »

What underlying conditions were they?

mostly heart disease.

owlbethere · 11-11-2020 04:05PM

Hardyn wrote: »

I think part of the problem is the whole concept of reinfection is framed badly. Instead of asking can I get the virus again a more important question is what happens if/when I do? Is the immune system better prepared and better equipped to deal with it a second time? So far the evidence is leaning towards the answer being yes.

There's not a lot of evidence regarding reinfections because so far the virus is novel to a sizable portion of our population and other populations too and so far there's a lot of measures in place to slow the spread of the virus. If we were all to throw caution to the wind, ignore public health guidelines, let the virus rip, etc we would probably have a better idea and clearer picture of reinfections.

The measures in place to slow the spread of the virus would also go some way into preventing reinfections so that would be a block to some degree into seeing what the true pic3is regarding reinfections.

ACitizenErased · 11-11-2020 04:09PM

418 positive swabs from 10787 tests, 3.9% positivity rate.
7 day rate now 3.6%

What Username Guidelines · 11-11-2020 04:11PM

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

From RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1111/1177367-coronavirus-ireland/

"Overall, 1,963 people have so far died due to Covid-19 during the pandemic.

New data yesterday confirmed that 93% of them also suffered from one or more underlying medical conditions.

The most common underlying condition was chronic heart disease followed by Chronic Neurological Disease such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease."

Hardly minor health issues. Likely the normal flu would have had similar outcomes.

Just like the way they build field hospitals across Europe every winter.

MerlinSouthDub · 11-11-2020 04:11PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

418 positive swabs from 10787 tests, 3.9% positivity rate.
7 day rate now 3.6%

A little disappointing following yesterday's good numbers.

I'm sure someone will be on shortly to proclaim "it's the schools!". Anyway, hopefully numbers will be down again tomorrow.

seamus · 11-11-2020 04:13PM

That's four Wednesdays in a row now that there's been a definite spike in positive swabs compared to the days either side.

I suspect this is the weekend phenomenon; people who feel unwell over the weekend not bothering to contact the GP until Monday AM and so only getting tested Monday eve/Tues. Or people contacting the GP over the weekend but not getting a test appt. until Monday or Tuesday.

KrustyUCC · 11-11-2020 04:13PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

418 positive swabs from 10787 tests, 3.9% positivity rate.
7 day rate now 3.6%

That's a pity but still decent numbers

odyssey06 · 11-11-2020 04:13PM

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

From RTE: https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1111/1177367-coronavirus-ireland/

"Overall, 1,963 people have so far died due to Covid-19 during the pandemic.

New data yesterday confirmed that 93% of them also suffered from one or more underlying medical conditions.

The most common underlying condition was chronic heart disease followed by Chronic Neurological Disease such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease."

Hardly minor health issues. Likely the normal flu would have had similar outcomes.

Some rather dubious claims there.

Do you have any idea how many people have chronic heart disease in this country?
And how many typically die from flu?
Come back to us when you do, otherwise, it appears you are making claims without foundation.

It's hardly a minor health issue but nor are they are death's door, their conditions may be well managed with medication.

MerlinSouthDub · 11-11-2020 04:14PM

seamus wrote: »

That's four Wednesdays in a row now that there's been a definite spike in positive swabs compared to the days either side.

I suspect this is the weekend phenomenon; people who feel unwell over the weekend not bothering to contact the GP until Monday AM and so only getting tested Monday eve/Tues. Or people contacting the GP over the weekend but not getting a test appt. until Monday or Tuesday.

Well spotted, I like your theory! feeling happier now

stephenjmcd · 11-11-2020 04:16PM

seamus wrote: »

That's four Wednesdays in a row now that there's been a definite spike in positive swabs compared to the days either side.

I suspect this is the weekend phenomenon; people who feel unwell over the weekend not bothering to contact the GP until Monday AM and so only getting tested Monday eve/Tues. Or people contacting the GP over the weekend but not getting a test appt. until Monday or Tuesday.

Hadn't spotted that actually.

Monday always has the most referrals but they're lower still than last week for Monday & Tuesday this week.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-11-november-2020.pdf

Also ties in with the picture GPs reporting

https://twitter.com/gpbuddy/status/1324785744485994497?s=19

Ficheall · 11-11-2020 04:18PM

Jimson wrote: »

mostly heart disease.

I can't find the number for Ireland, but it seems about 48% of the US have heart disease..

Eod100 · 11-11-2020 04:19PM

DUP trying to politicise a health crises

https://twitter.com/AllisonMorris1/status/1326542054655025153

11-11-2020 04:28PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

418 positive swabs from 10787 tests, 3.9% positivity rate.
7 day rate now 3.6%

3 weeks in a row now we have had a spike in the positive rate on a Wednesday, before resuming the previous trend. If would be interesting to know how this happens as cannot be random. Why would more positive samples be tested on a Tuesday?

27th Oct 4.67%, 28th 5.88%, 29th 5.11%

3rd Nov 3.72%, 4th 4.9%, 5th 3.79%

10th Nov 2.72%, 11th 3.87%12th TBD

Is also visible on the 21st and 14th

11-11-2020 04:32PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Reckon we need to vaccinate about 2 to 2.5 million vulnerable / at risk people in Ireland asap , then hopefully everyone else within the next six months .
Even the first phase would take some organising but would make a major difference to hospitalisation and deaths .

2 - 2.5 million vulnerable in a population of 5 million? Seriously?

Spudman_20000 · 11-11-2020 04:35PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Some rather dubious claims there.

Do you have any idea how many people have chronic heart disease in this country?
And how many typically die from flu?
Come back to us when you do, otherwise, it appears you are making claims without foundation.

It's hardly a minor health issue but nor are they are death's door, their conditions may be well managed with medication.

Yes, I'm with one with dubious "claims". You're probably right, people with chronic heart disease, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease would probably be fine and dandy after contracting the seasonal flu.

I said it was likely, I didn't make any claims. Using a bit of common sense.

But anyways, as you were. Let's keep our healthy population locked up in their houses for as long as possible.

Eod100 · 11-11-2020 04:38PM

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

Yes, I'm with one with dubious "claims". You're probably right, people with chronic heart disease, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease would probably be fine and dandy after contracting the seasonal flu.

I said it was likely, I didn't make any claims. Using a bit of common sense.

But anyways, as you were. Let's keep our healthy population locked up in their houses for as long as possible.

There's a flu vaccine for a reason. The goal is to do as much to prevent preventable deaths. Your remarks seem fairly flippant and insensitive tbh.

kippy · 11-11-2020 04:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

2 - 2.5 million vulnerable in a population of 5 million? Seriously?

700K odd over 65.
How many health care workers?
How many with compromised immume suystems?
I'd say closer to 1.5 to 2 million.

titan18 · 11-11-2020 04:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

2 - 2.5 million vulnerable in a population of 5 million? Seriously?

2.5m would be on the high side but you'd be looking at 1.5m probably. There were about 640k over 65 in the cso in 2016. Considering HSE have over 60 as vulnerable, that's probably another 100k.

Add in all the below which HSE also define as high risk and those numbers are adding up.

have a learning disability
have a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)
have heart disease (such as heart failure)
have high blood pressure (hypertension)
have diabetes
have chronic kidney disease
have liver disease (such as hepatitis)
have a medical condition that can affect your breathing
have cancer
have clinically stable cystic fibrosis
have a weak immune system (immunosuppressed)
have cerebrovascular disease
have a condition affecting your brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis, or cerebral palsy)
have a problem with your spleen or have had your spleen removed
have a condition that means you have a high risk of getting infections (such as HIV, lupus or scleroderma)
are taking medicine that can affect your immune system (such as low doses of steroids)
have obesity
are residents of nursing homes and other long-stay settings
are in specialist disability care and are over 50 years of age or have an underlying health problem

Spudman_20000 · 11-11-2020 04:43PM

Eod100 wrote: »

There's a flu vaccine for a reason. The goal is to do as much to prevent preventable deaths. Your remarks seem fairly flippant and insensitive tbh.

Correction, their goal would appear to prevent as many Covid deaths as possible. Take a look at the backlogs we have now for cancer screenings, smear tests etc. and have a look at the survival rates of many cancers.

You are correct on one thing, I am flippant in relation to the seriousness of Covid compared to more serious diseases that are undoubtedly being missed because of this lunacy.

polesheep · 11-11-2020 04:44PM

titan18 wrote: »

2.5m would be on the high side but you'd be looking at 1.5m probably. There were about 640k over 65 in the cso in 2016. Considering HSE have over 60 as vulnerable, that's probably another 100k.

Add in all the below which HSE also define as high risk and those numbers are adding up.

have a learning disability
have a lung condition that's not severe (such as asthma, COPD, emphysema or bronchitis)
have heart disease (such as heart failure)
have high blood pressure (hypertension)
have diabetes
have chronic kidney disease
have liver disease (such as hepatitis)
have a medical condition that can affect your breathing
have cancer
have clinically stable cystic fibrosis
have a weak immune system (immunosuppressed)
have cerebrovascular disease
have a condition affecting your brain or nerves (such as Parkinson's disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis, or cerebral palsy)
have a problem with your spleen or have had your spleen removed
have a condition that means you have a high risk of getting infections (such as HIV, lupus or scleroderma)
are taking medicine that can affect your immune system (such as low doses of steroids)
have obesity
are residents of nursing homes and other long-stay settings
are in specialist disability care and are over 50 years of age or have an underlying health problem

You can't assume that all of the people in these categories will want the vaccine so it might be that Ireland's initial allocation is enough to begin with.

odyssey06 · 11-11-2020 04:45PM

Spudman_20000 wrote: »

Yes, I'm with one with dubious "claims". You're probably right, people with chronic heart disease, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease would probably be fine and dandy after contracting the seasonal flu.
I said it was likely, I didn't make any claims. Using a bit of common sense.
But anyways, as you were. Let's keep our healthy population locked up in their houses for as long as possible.

Where did I write this?
"People with chronic heart disease, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease would probably be fine and dandy after contracting the seasonal flu."

Not content with dubious claims, now you're resorting to a strawman argument based on putting words in other people's mouths.

Covid is a more severe illness than flu, notwithstanding that we have a vaccine for seasonal flu. We don't want them contracting flu either, or norovirus, or pnuemonia... but the impact and infectiousness of said diseases is within the range of what can be handled by the health service.

So you are drawing a false equivalence, because one disease kills a smaller number of that cohort we should somehow respond to a more severe disease in the same way.

And frankly attempts at JustTheFluBro at this stage without any supporting evidence to justify the claim isn't common sense, it's common ignorance or someone with an obvious agenda.

titan18 · 11-11-2020 04:52PM

polesheep wrote: »

You can't assume that all of the people in these categories will want the vaccine so it might be that Ireland's initial allocation is enough to begin with.

I reckon our initial allocation will be tiny. Can easily see the fools in government going to the EU that our numbers are ok here, you're worse off, we'll be nice and leave you have more doses.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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