Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

cameramonkey · 10-11-2020 05:28PM

Does anyone know where the labs in Germany are that carry out the Irish covid tests.

Polar101 · 10-11-2020 05:29PM

bikeman1 wrote: »

I'd love to know where the "it's always higher on Tuesday" crowd have gone to? The weekend effect etc.

Great numbers!

Hoping this was the high number this week, and the rest of the week will be even lower.

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 05:29PM

seamus wrote: »

It's a bit hollow when we're one of the only ones. We can leave but we can't get back

Winter trips to Norway or Finland might be the new thing this year!

I'd recommend ice fishing on the fjords!

KrustyUCC · 10-11-2020 05:29PM

JDD wrote: »

I doubt even Tony was expecting this level of fall, given the dip and then rise in cases in Dublin during Level 3.

Remember, it took us four months to get down to the single digit numbers we saw in July.

I think we're on track to going back to a Level 3 from Dec 1 to Dec 24. I think there might be some special dispensation given for Christmas Day. If cases continue to fall, even at a much slower rate, and there isn't a huge jump in infections stemming from Christmas Day, I think we might see a Level 2 in January.

At least for a bit, until cases start to rise again and we have to climb back up the restriction levels.

Level three for the whole of December won't be acceptable especially the staty within your own county part

cameramonkey · 10-11-2020 05:31PM

eagle eye wrote: »

If cases continue to fall in the north and down here I wonder is there any chance they could work together to try achieve a zero covid island?

There seem to be no political will to make the island zero covid. When you look at all the flights coming in from European covid hot spots and the lack of any testing infrastructure at airports and the lack of ability to check if people are quarantining, then I would say there is no hope.

nofools · 10-11-2020 05:34PM

seamus wrote: »

These numbers are the effect of level 5 restrictions kicking in. Level 5 started on 21st, so we'd expect to the impact 2-3 weeks after that; 4th - 11th Nov.

If the schools closing had an impact, then we'd see that toward the end of this week, but it would be impossible to separate from the impact of level 5 anyway.

Likewise the schools opening back up - if schools are a factor - would see a blip in rates about the end of next week. But then we should expect the rates to start to plateau around then anyway.

So in short, we will never know if the mid-term break had any impact.

Schools are a factor. I notice you have some bias around the topic.

Do you have kids at school?

bikeman1 · 10-11-2020 05:37PM

Polar101 wrote: »

Hoping this was the high number this week, and the rest of the week will be even lower.

Me too! Fingers crossed for the continued fall off for the future.

This drop off gives me and many others hope, hope that we can wrestle back control if we need to in Ireland with this virus. With vaccines only around the corner we can finally see some light and a way out.

nofools · 10-11-2020 05:37PM

OwenM wrote: »

There is a very valid basis for criticism of NPHET, they face an asymmetrical risk where the economy and to a lesser extent other medical issues are not a concern. A 60% reduction in cancer screenings so far this year is a point in case.

The asymmetrical risk is in the other direction actually.

It is that asymmetry that has forced NPHET and the entire world to take such hard action.

MerlinSouthDub · 10-11-2020 05:38PM

seamus wrote: »

These numbers are the effect of level 5 restrictions kicking in. Level 5 started on 21st, so we'd expect to the impact 2-3 weeks after that; 4th - 11th Nov.

If the schools closing had an impact, then we'd see that toward the end of this week, but it would be impossible to separate from the impact of level 5 anyway.

Likewise the schools opening back up - if schools are a factor - would see a blip in rates about the end of next week. But then we should expect the rates to start to plateau around then anyway.

So in short, we will never know if the mid-term break had any impact.

Fully agree. I would add that the fall in cases numbers has been very steady since the 21st - it's hard to see any impact of schools being open/closed or indeed Level 5! Level 5 does not appear to have accelerated the decline in any material way.

JDD · 10-11-2020 05:38PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Level three for the whole of December won't be acceptable especially the staty within your own county part

True, but as we well know the government don't give a fig about the detail of each restriction level. They may well say that people can leave their county, but keep all the other Level 3 restrictions (i.e. pubs).

KrustyUCC · 10-11-2020 05:41PM

Yes that's reasonable

I can't see the pubs being allowed open by NPHET

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 05:42PM

A study using mobility data from the US to build a model for high risk locations like restaurants to reopen.

Now, a new model using mobile-phone data to map people’s movements suggests that these venues could account for most COVID-19 infections in US cities.

The model, published in Nature today, also reveals how reducing occupancy in venues can significantly cut the number of infections.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03140-4

prunudo · 10-11-2020 05:46PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Yes that's reasonable

I can't see the pubs being allowed open by NPHET

And people will just have Christmas house parties instead. If they introduce strict controls on capacity and table service only, I don't see why pubs shouldn't be allowed open if they so wish. Depending on numbers maybe not immediately from the 1st but certainly from the middle of the month.

KrustyUCC · 10-11-2020 05:49PM

I agree but NPHET will say that's too risky

We were amongst the slowest in Europe to open restaurants not to mind eventually the wet pubs

Tony didn't envisage the gastro pubs opening at the same time as restaurants first time around

Widdensushi · 10-11-2020 05:56PM

Open the pubs

JDD · 10-11-2020 06:00PM

prunudo wrote: »

And people will just have Christmas house parties instead. If they introduce strict controls on capacity and table service only, I don't see why pubs shouldn't be allowed open if they so wish. Depending on numbers maybe not immediately from the 1st but certainly from the middle of the month.

Look, I think you're right to a certain extent. There is a certain proportion of people that will just go to a Christmas house party instead of a pub if the pub is closed.

But there's another cohort - usually those with families - that aren't regular pub goers anymore, but would certainly find themselves in a pub five or six times over the Christmas period. Meeting family/friends/work dos etc. If the pub isn't open they're unlikely to rock up to every person's house that they might have met up with in a pub. Can you imagine the number of "work team" Christmas do's that would be arranged if the pubs were open? If the pubs are closed, you're unlikely to show up with a bottle of wine to your bosses house.

10-11-2020 06:03PM

JDD wrote: »

Look, I think you're right to a certain extent. There is a certain proportion of people that will just go to a Christmas house party instead of a pub if the pub is closed.

But there's another cohort - usually those with families - that aren't regular pub goers anymore, but would certainly find themselves in a pub five or six times over the Christmas period. Meeting family/friends/work dos etc. If the pub isn't open they're unlikely to rock up to every person's house that they might have met up with in a pub. Can you imagine the number of "work team" Christmas do's that would be arranged if the pubs were open? If the pubs are closed, you're unlikely to show up with a bottle of wine to your bosses house.

**** all I'd imagine

prunudo · 10-11-2020 06:04PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I agree but NPHET will say that's too risky

We were amongst the slowest in Europe to open restaurants not to mind eventually the wet pubs

Tony didn't envisage the gastro pubs opening at the same time as restaurants first time around

Hopefully the government have the balls to overrule him. Its almost like he wants to stop people having a some what normal Christmas knowing full well people will break the guidelines, meet in unregulated settings and he can demand another level 5 lockdown in the new year when numbers ruse again.

wadacrack · 10-11-2020 06:08PM

I wouldnt open pubs as that may mean another lockdown. With a vaccine hopefully available soon it makes more to sense to wait. It could be even more promising in 8-10 weeks. The long term gains outweigh the short term ones. With transmission very low we would be in a great position

prunudo · 10-11-2020 06:08PM

JDD wrote: »

Look, I think you're right to a certain extent. There is a certain proportion of people that will just go to a Christmas house party instead of a pub if the pub is closed.

But there's another cohort - usually those with families - that aren't regular pub goers anymore, but would certainly find themselves in a pub five or six times over the Christmas period. Meeting family/friends/work dos etc. If the pub isn't open they're unlikely to rock up to every person's house that they might have met up with in a pub. Can you imagine the number of "work team" Christmas do's that would be arranged if the pubs were open? If the pubs are closed, you're unlikely to show up with a bottle of wine to your bosses house.

I wouldn't underestimate the amount of gatherings that will take place in private houses over the festive period. I'm not even talking about piss ups till the early hours. If people can't go out to pubs or restaurants to meet up, it will happen over the kitchen table. Its naive to think after the year we've had, people won't arrange to meet family and friends.

stephenjmcd · 10-11-2020 06:09PM

AdamD wrote: »

**** all I'd imagine

Agree little to none.

Already been said in our place there won't be one regardless. So long as everyone's working from home there is no big meet up.

This again all comes back to the controlled environments v uncontrolled debate.

House gatherings have appeared to be the big spreader for this wave, uncontrolled environments. Personally I dont know of a pub or restaurant that I'd frequent that was impacted by staff or customer cases, all with good measures in place.

KrustyUCC · 10-11-2020 06:10PM

prunudo wrote: »

Hopefully the government have the balls to overrule him. Its almost like he wants to stop people having a some what normal Christmas knowing full well people will break the guidelines, meet in unregulated settings and he can demand another level 5 lockdown in the new year when numbers ruse again.

I can't see them overruling him especially after the constant media pressure to go to level five in the first place

They must know that people will ignore the travel restrictions in December at a minimum

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 06:11PM

prunudo wrote: »

I wouldn't underestimate the amount of gatherings that will take place in private houses over the festive period. I'm not even talking about piss ups till the early hours. If people can't go out to pubs or restaurants to meet up, it will happen over the kitchen table. Its naive to think after the year we've had, people won't arrange to meet family and friends.

People will feel that they've earned the right to do that anyway. If the government push ahead with their plan it will be L2.

stephenjmcd · 10-11-2020 06:15PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

I can't see them overruling him especially after the constant media pressure to go to level five in the first place

They must know that people will ignore the travel restrictions in December at a minimum

Its a catch 22 in most situations.

If you don't give people restaurants or pubs for example you can be sure it moves people back indoors again, uncontrolled environments. If im to meet a friend I'd rather do it in a pub or restaurant than either of our houses where I'd feel even less inclined to follow guidelines compared to being in an environment where they're all around me and constant reminders.

prunudo · 10-11-2020 06:17PM

is_that_so wrote: »

People will feel that they've earned the right to do that anyway. If the government push ahead with their plan it will be L2.

Hope so, and as stephenjmcd says it comes down to controlled vs uncontrolled environments. I just think the idea that nphet won't open up pubs as it will lead to a rise in numbers is short sighted given the amount of house gatherings that will take place over the festive period regardless of what restrictions are in place.

GeorgeBailey · 10-11-2020 06:25PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its a catch 22 in most situations.

If you don't give people restaurants or pubs for example you can be sure it moves people back indoors again, uncontrolled environments. If im to meet a friend I'd rather do it in a pub or restaurant than either of our houses where I'd feel even less inclined to follow guidelines compared to being in an environment where they're all around me and constant reminders.

If pubs are opened people will likely go to the pub and then in a lot of cases head for a house party at the end of the night. So don't open pubs and there'll be house parties. Do open the pubs and there'll still be house parties.

cameramonkey · 10-11-2020 06:25PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1326207643837411335

Shiitte of the bull

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 06:28PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1326207643837411335

Shiitte of the bull

It's a reasonable compromise seeing as only 3 countries get any kind of a pass at present.

stephenjmcd · 10-11-2020 06:29PM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

If pubs are opened people will likely go to the pub and then in a lot of cases head for a house party at the end of the night. So don't open pubs and there'll be house parties. Do open the pubs and there'll still be house parties.

Like I said catch 22 but I know I'd rather the controlled environment for longer period than the uncontrolled.

At least in the pub or a restaurant your at your table and that's it, no mixing etc

is_that_so · 10-11-2020 06:31PM

https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/11/10/pfizer-vaccine-created-after-irish-intern-accidentally-spilled-flat-7up-into-mix/

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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