US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

StringerBell · 10-11-2020 02:48PM

Inquitus wrote: »

You can't really blame Nate as an aggregator of polls, if the underlying poll data is crap, as it was this year, then he has no chance of making sense of them. Whatever the reason for the massive polling miss, shy trumpers etc. etc. It was real and meant they were all off large amounts in some states, way outside the supposed margin of error.

I agree, I'm just saying he and practically everyone else in polling land has had a rough time of it. They just cannot seem to work out how to factor whatever the hell it is trump has when it comes to polling data.

Windmill100000 · 10-11-2020 02:48PM

L1011 wrote: »

Trump effectively ordered his base not to postal vote, so yes.

Did he give a reason? Looks like it was a great plan as the moment he stopped getting votes he could cry fraud.

Let them count again. I'm happy to see him lose twice.

MadYaker · 10-11-2020 03:02PM

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Did he give a reason? Looks like it was a great plan as the moment he stopped getting votes he could cry fraud.

Let them count again. I'm happy to see him lose twice.

In his head he wasn’t ordering his base not to postal vote. He was attempting to discredit the whole postal voting method in the hope that people in general wouldn’t use it as he knew that more people voting overall is bad for him and republicans. It didn’t work out as he had hoped.

L1011 · 10-11-2020 03:07PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Georgia is split into 2 Senate "Districts" with a line going down from the N.E. to the S.W. .

No it isn't. That's just a line they drew on the map to indicate there's two seats

All senate seats are state-wide, each states two elections are offset on a 2-4-2-4 year gap.

The reason there's two here is that one is a special election for the remaining 2 years of Isaksons term (he resigned) and the other is for a full six year term.

BonnieSituation · 10-11-2020 03:09PM

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Did he give a reason? Looks like it was a great plan as the moment he stopped getting votes he could cry fraud.

Let them count again. I'm happy to see him lose twice.

I can't do that week again. No siree.

Robert2014 · 10-11-2020 03:10PM

I'm struggling to understand this plan to undermine the election result and the suggestions of fraud. In every election from now on, Republicans will be asked again and again in advance, will you accept the election result. So every time before an election, voters will be reminded of this fiasco and the Republicans coming across as sore losers, delusional and cowards in telling Trump to face facts. Will this impact potential voters, who knows? But not all the 70 million people that voted Trump are deluded and this will be brought up again and again. In terms of elections, Republicans have been the ones to benefit from any "rigging", you would think they would want to be quiet on this topic. Any large investigating into the election process cannot help them imo

harr · 10-11-2020 03:12PM

A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.

Movementarian · 10-11-2020 03:21PM

Paleface wrote: »

There are a couple of motives at play here why the GOP are still backing Trump in my view.

1. Trump's popularity is clearly huge amongst the electorate and they have not yet figured out how to transfer the majority of this support to the party itself. They must continue to back him until he concedes
2. They want to stoke up as much angst as possible amongst their supporters to ensure a high turnout for any Senate runoffs
3. Mail in voting is going to kill them in the long run. They knew this all along but because of the pandemic could not stop it. All they can do now is discredit its usage enough to ensure that once the pandemic is over states go back to a policy of the majority of votes being cast in person on the day

Pretty dangerous game for the Republicans though, I mean it could energise the voting base for next time. But equally if they do damage to people's faith in the system you could end up turning off people from even bothering to vote which would play into Democrat hands as they have greater numbers.

I genuinely think if Republicans are sensible they need to start shutting this down and saying the system works, Biden won and lets try get them next time.

everlast75 · 10-11-2020 03:23PM

harr wrote: »

A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.

Slight clarification.

If the GOP had agreed to allowing ballots to be counted on the day of the election in PA and certain other states, the result would have been clear *that night*.

When you put matters into context, the scheme is very clear.

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 03:27PM

L1011 wrote: »

No it isn't. That's just a line they drew on the map to indicate there's two seats

All senate seats are state-wide, each states two elections are offset on a 2-4-2-4 year gap.

The reason there's two here is that one is a special election for the remaining 2 years of Isaksons term (he resigned) and the other is for a full six year term.

Do you get 2 votes i.e. you can vote for both Dem's? or is there a need to manage the vote a bit like we do in Ireland? if you want to get 2 elected?

L1011 · 10-11-2020 03:27PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Do you get 2 votes i.e. you can vote for both Dem's? or is there a need to manage the vote a bit like we do in Ireland? if you want to get 2 elected?

You get two votes. Its two completely separate races.

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 03:29PM

L1011 wrote: »

You get two votes. Its two completely separate races.

So in that case it seems likely we will end up with either 2 Dems or 2 Republicans, as you'd expect most people to vote a straight ticket?

Water John · 10-11-2020 03:32PM

The majority of people will but sufficient numbers will cross ballot to make a diff.

Foxtrol · 10-11-2020 03:41PM

harr wrote: »

A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.

This timing is perfectly normal for US elections to not have 'definite results' until way later than the race is 'called'. There are plenty of reasons for that and are very difficult to change (e.g., allowing time for military ballots to arrive or allowing for recounts). It isn't ideal but there are far greater problems with the US electoral system than the time for the official results.

Here are when votes were certified in 2016, most the end of November or early December.

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2016

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 03:44PM

Foxtrol wrote: »

This timing is perfectly normal for US elections to not have 'definite results' until way later than the race is 'called'. There are plenty of reasons for that and are very difficult to change (e.g., allowing time for military ballots to arrive or allowing for recounts). It isn't ideal but there are far greater problems with the US electoral system than the time for the official results.

Here are when votes were certified in 2016, most the end of November or early December.

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2016

This is an excellent article that explains how the law around elections in the US is not very robust, and if Trump really wants to drag things out he can cause a constitutional crisis. Basically the fact that the loser has always voluntarily given a concession has kept the US steered well clear of this path, up until now at least!

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

StringerBell · 10-11-2020 03:45PM

harr wrote: »

A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.

Does it need updating? Absolutely, but it is working alright seemingly as is right now. Problems with the count have been caused by the GOP in their procedural challenges.

The volume of mail in ballots and each states own particular way of dealing with them is causing a speed issue but ultimately once they get to the correct result in time for it to be certified then we have to take that for what it is.

The sheer volume of votes cast in this election is incredible. You also have different states accepting ballots up until different dates and until all the votes are in or it is obvious who is going to win they can't be declared. They are only media projections anyway up until the point they are certified election results by the SOS.

The main thing is, trump is toast. The manner of the defeat makes it seem closer than it was but that's all. He has lost, and he has lost decisively. He can rant as much as he wants about it, the process moves along now without any further need for his input. The GOP can continue to piss on their own name and reputation as a once honourable party, ultimately the voters have spoken and they have spoken decisively.

OhHiMark · 10-11-2020 03:46PM

Robert2014 wrote: »

I'm struggling to understand this plan to undermine the election result and the suggestions of fraud. In every election from now on, Republicans will be asked again and again in advance, will you accept the election result. So every time before an election, voters will be reminded of this fiasco and the Republicans coming across as sore losers, delusional and cowards in telling Trump to face facts. Will this impact potential voters, who knows? But not all the 70 million people that voted Trump are deluded and this will be brought up again and again. In terms of elections, Republicans have been the ones to benefit from any "rigging", you would think they would want to be quiet on this topic. Any large investigating into the election process cannot help them imo

You're forgetting that Trump isn't a Republican. Trump doesn't care about the party, or what happens in the future. His entire mindset at all times is "How can I improve my own situation here?".

Quin_Dub · 10-11-2020 03:50PM

harr wrote: »

A week later and no definite results.. I know the outcome is known, but is it showing up that the American voting process needs to be updated , I know the postal votes are / were holding things up.
Every election seems to be throwing up issues.

The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.

Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.

Counts need to finish
State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State
State send forward Electors
Electoral College Votes
Biden gets 270+ votes
He's President

There are 2 key dates.

States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.

He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following

Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS

Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.

The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"

In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.

As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.

This is their plan.

Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.

The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.

It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.

Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.

He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.

The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.

L1011 · 10-11-2020 03:52PM

Inquitus wrote: »

So in that case it seems likely we will end up with either 2 Dems or 2 Republicans, as you'd expect most people to vote a straight ticket?

That is most likely, but there will be Republicans perfectly happy with Perdue and horrified by Loeffler

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 03:57PM

L1011 wrote: »

That is most likely, but there will be Republicans perfectly happy with Perdue and horrified by Loeffler

Loeffler is a QAnon headcase aye?

robinph · 10-11-2020 04:11PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

...
It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.

Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.

He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.

The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.

You would hope that if it got to that point the actual military people in charge of giving the orders on the ground would refuse to do anything other than follow the constitution which requires that Trump stands down on 20th January and would do what they deem necessary to make sure that happens. If that means letting the people protest and show their disgust at what is then being down to their country then so be it, just don't let them break too many windows in the process.

serfboard · 10-11-2020 04:19PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.

Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.

He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.

I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.

However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.

Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2020 04:27PM

We have an update from Alaska, which now says there are 157,209 uncounted ballots — up from 134,664 yesterday (the difference is likely explained by the fact that absentee ballots are still trickling in). That makes Biden’s and Gross’s path to winning a little bit easier, though it would still require an impressive comeback. Biden needs to win more than 67 percent of the outstanding ballots, while Gross needs to win more than 68 percent.

link

Quin_Dub · 10-11-2020 04:29PM

robinph wrote: »

You would hope that if it got to that point the actual military people in charge of giving the orders on the ground would refuse to do anything other than follow the constitution which requires that Trump stands down on 20th January and would do what they deem necessary to make sure that happens. If that means letting the people protest and show their disgust at what is then being down to their country then so be it, just don't let them break too many windows in the process.

serfboard wrote: »

I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.

However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.

Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.

But - If they force the Contingent Election , he will be their Commander in Chief and they will have "followed the constitution" etc.

The Contingent Election route is clearly the Trump plan , they really don't have another pathway.

The courts , even the SCOTUS will knock them back , but if they can engineer it such that the Electoral college vote cannot give a candidate 270 they win and they know it.

The only hope in that scenario would be that a small few GOP office holders value the country over power - Romney and Murkowski in the Senate perhaps .

Liz Chaney would be key in the house as she is effectively the casting vote as she is the sole representative from Montana.

everlast75 · 10-11-2020 04:31PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

The problem is, the longer this goes on it increases the chances of Trump and his allies pulling effectively a coup.

Here's what needs to happen for Biden to be confirmed President.
Counts need to finish

State level results get certified by the respective Governors/Secretaries of State

State send forward Electors

Electoral College Votes

Biden gets 270+ votes

He's President

There are 2 key dates.

States need to certify their results before December 8th (Safe Harbour)
Electors meet on December 14th to actually cast their votes

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Trump plan here is to flood key States with a torrent of spurious court cases to delay/prevent the results being certified by the required date.

He then hopes to get the various States to do one of the following

Do not send any Electors forward as they cannot certify the results - He'd be looking at places like Arizona and Georgia for that , with GOP Governors and SoS

Send forward competing Slates of Electors - He'd be looking at Pennsylvania for that - Dem Governor , but GOP State Legislature. The likelihood is that with two sets of electors competing , both would excluded.

The End game is that no ones gets to 270 thereby forcing a "Contingent Election"

In the event of a Contingent Election , the Senate elects the VP and the House Elects the President , but in the House it's a State by State vote not a simply majority.

As it stands right now , the GOP lead the State by State count in the house 26-24 , so they'd elect Trump and the Senate would elect Pence.

This is their plan.

Now - The Sh!t-storm this would kick off would be of catastrophic proportions and they might not get away with it.

The GOP leader of the PA House has already come out and said that they would not get involved in the Electoral College process , but let's see if they withstand the pressure they are going to come under.

It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.

Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.

He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.

The potential for truly terrifying times in the US is very real right now.

IMHO I doubt this will happen.

These lost cases are not being appealed and so are being quickly dismissed if I've read up correctly.

This is placating the toddler-in-chief.

If any of these linger, I would expect Biden to petition SCOTUS who would take it up at a moment's notice.

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2020 04:34PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It is not a coincidence that Trump just fired Esper as Sec. Of Defence either.

Esper refused to allow Trump to use the Military on the streets during the BLM protests etc.

He has now been replaced by a door-mat who will do whatever he's told including sending the Military out to suppress protests if they actually try to do this.

I was racking my brains last night trying to come up with a theory about why he did this now and in the end I settled on spite, pettiness and trying to project strength and power. Your theory is far more frightening though.

I could definitely see Trump trying it on. I think that the Republicans, who he would need to play ball, would have to say "No". He'd likely have a few cultists in each state legislature and the odd Governor's mansion who would be down with subverting the process in order to keep him in charge but I think it's simply a step too far for most elected members of the GOP.

everlast75 · 10-11-2020 04:46PM

https://twitter.com/Jordanfabian/status/1326186036217720833?s=19

Now that's gonna leave a mark..

demfad · 10-11-2020 05:01PM

serfboard wrote: »

I was wondering what was behind Esper's firing.

However, I cannot see the military getting involved in this. Their loyalty is to the "office" of the Commander-in-Chief - not to the Commander-in-Chief himself, whatever Trump may think.

Trying to get them involved in this is, IMO, tantamount to asking them to partake in a coup, and I cannot see that happening.

The Generals are obliged to take legal commands from POTUS or the Sec of Defense. All commands are legal until after Trump's last day as President.

If Trump succeeds in making the validity of the election a partisan issue, with support from the Senate and Attorney General and claims the election as illegitimate then it will be for the military to intervene or ask the opinion of the US Supreme Court...Doing nothing will see Trump remaining in power.

This is what would be dictators do. They control as much as the military as possible and then force the military to act or acquiesce.

That's why this move by Trump is so unnerving. Why else would he do it?

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2020 05:12PM

demfad wrote: »

If Trump succeeds in making the validity of the election a partisan issue, with support from the Senate and Attorney General and claims the election as illegitimate then it will be for the military to intervene or ask the opinion of the US Supreme Court...Doing nothing will see Trump remaining in power.

Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Ben Sasse and Susan Collins have already congratulated Biden on his win. Mark Kelly will also be joining the chamber this month after his special election victory in Arizona. No way Trump can win a majority of support in the Senate for any of this crazy stuff.

BonnieSituation · 10-11-2020 05:16PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But - If they force the Contingent Election , he will be their Commander in Chief and they will have "followed the constitution" etc.

The Contingent Election route is clearly the Trump plan , they really don't have another pathway.

The courts , even the SCOTUS will knock them back , but if they can engineer it such that the Electoral college vote cannot give a candidate 270 they win and they know it.

The only hope in that scenario would be that a small few GOP office holders value the country over power - Romney and Murkowski in the Senate perhaps .

Liz Chaney would be key in the house as she is effectively the casting vote as she is the sole representative from Montana.

Cheney is from Wyoming. Point still stands.

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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