US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub · 10-11-2020 10:15AM

OhHiMark wrote: »

Are the Georgia run offs statewide votes or are they only in certain counties?

Full State wide votes for both

Paleface · 10-11-2020 10:36AM

There are a couple of motives at play here why the GOP are still backing Trump in my view.

1. Trump's popularity is clearly huge amongst the electorate and they have not yet figured out how to transfer the majority of this support to the party itself. They must continue to back him until he concedes
2. They want to stoke up as much angst as possible amongst their supporters to ensure a high turnout for any Senate runoffs
3. Mail in voting is going to kill them in the long run. They knew this all along but because of the pandemic could not stop it. All they can do now is discredit its usage enough to ensure that once the pandemic is over states go back to a policy of the majority of votes being cast in person on the day

Carfacemandog · 10-11-2020 10:39AM

Tell me how wrote: »

Ain't going to happen.

Mitch McConnell met with Barr today and came out to support Trump. They've thrown the hammer after the hatchet in terms of supporting him.

Expect Georgia turnout will break record for a run-off contest.

It could backfire spectacularly on them all right. On one hand they would have done well to get either of the Senate seats and asking for both is a lot. But inthe other, they've got the "we take the Senate and we have all 3!" momentum going with them, Susan Abrams by the sounds of things is just an absolute machine, and now they've got republicans flailing and potentially increasing voter turnout against them as a result, like happened in wisconsin during the primaries.

Carfacemandog · 10-11-2020 10:43AM

Paleface wrote: »

There are a couple of motives at play here why the GOP are still backing Trump in my view.

1. Trump's popularity is clearly huge amongst the electorate and they have not yet figured out how to transfer the majority of this support to the party itself. They must continue to back him until he concedes
2. They want to stoke up as much angst as possible amongst their supporters to ensure a high turnout for any Senate runoffs
3. Mail in voting is going to kill them in the long run. They knew this all along but because of the pandemic could not stop it. All they can do now is discredit its usage enough to ensure that once the pandemic is over states go back to a policy of the majority of votes being cast in person on the day

You left one out.

4. "Maybe you do not care much about the future of the Republican Party. You should. Conservatives will always be with us. If conservatives become convinced that they can not win democratically, they will not abandon conservatism. The will reject democracy."
- Former Bush Jr advisor David Frumm.

listermint · 10-11-2020 10:53AM

Paleface wrote: »

There are a couple of motives at play here why the GOP are still backing Trump in my view.

1. Trump's popularity is clearly huge amongst the electorate and they have not yet figured out how to transfer the majority of this support to the party itself. They must continue to back him until he concedes
2. They want to stoke up as much angst as possible amongst their supporters to ensure a high turnout for any Senate runoffs
3. Mail in voting is going to kill them in the long run. They knew this all along but because of the pandemic could not stop it. All they can do now is discredit its usage enough to ensure that once the pandemic is over states go back to a policy of the majority of votes being cast in person on the day

Dont underestimate that fact that various players in power in this play are actual criminals. And if they lose their grip on what they have they may end up in prison or answering for serious issues. I include trump and MMcC in this amongst various other senior GOP players.

When you back a rat into a corner it is not going to go meekly

ToddDameron · 10-11-2020 11:01AM

Out of interest, why is it that the postal vote is dominated by Democrats? Is it purely because of Trump's attempts to discredit it in the lead up to the election?

jill_valentine · 10-11-2020 11:06AM

ToddDameron wrote: »

Out of interest, why is it that the postal vote is dominated by Democrats? Is it purely because of Trump's attempts to discredit it in the lead up to the election?

It's safer during the pandemic, but it also circumvents longstanding supression tactics like long queues etc that are not-uncoincidentally aimed at high Dem areas. I know people who have to take whole days off to vote in the States because it takes so long, if you're a young worker in precarious employment that's a huge ask. The stakes were so high in this election Dems were very motivated and until the DeJoy stuff emerged it seemed by far the safest way to get votes through.

L1011 · 10-11-2020 11:06AM

ToddDameron wrote: »

Out of interest, why is it that the postal vote is dominated by Democrats? Is it purely because of Trump's attempts to discredit it in the lead up to the election?

Trump effectively ordered his base not to postal vote, so yes.

prawnsambo · 10-11-2020 11:07AM

ToddDameron wrote: »

Out of interest, why is it that the postal vote is dominated by Democrats? Is it purely because of Trump's attempts to discredit it in the lead up to the election?

It was rolled out as a covid-safe way of voting. Trump told his supporters to vote in person, but the Democrat message was to vote early and use mail-in ballots instead of in-person voting. Trump has basically tried to undermine the mail-in system from the start because (as has now transpired) he was going to undermine the system using the two-pronged attack of calling it a recipe for fraud and having his postmaster-general sabotage the postal system to kill it at birth.

listermint · 10-11-2020 11:08AM

L1011 wrote: »

Trump effectively ordered his base not to postal vote, so yes.

Except Florida, where it was deemed entirely and totally safe

Brian? · 10-11-2020 11:16AM

The news wind of Foxnews have fully turned on Trump now, not before time.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/whoa-fox-news-cuts-off-kayleigh-mcenany-for-votes-spiel?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I’m not checking in on the opinion wing, I assume they are still shouting “fraud”.

10-11-2020 11:29AM

Brian? wrote: »

The news wind of Foxnews have fully turned on Trump now, not before time.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/whoa-fox-news-cuts-off-kayleigh-mcenany-for-votes-spiel?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I’m not checking in on the opinion wing, I assume they are still shouting “fraud”.

The opinion wing are just a level above conspiracy theorists and are there to shore up the part of the republican base that can't understand big words, so yes they will be.

hirondelle · 10-11-2020 11:35AM

Brian? wrote: »

The news wind of Foxnews have fully turned on Trump now, not before time.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/10/whoa-fox-news-cuts-off-kayleigh-mcenany-for-votes-spiel?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

I’m not checking in on the opinion wing, I assume they are still shouting “fraud”.

It is great that they cut her off, but I'm wondering if they should have even carried an interview with her "in a personal capacity" at the RNC facility at all.

Needless to say, normal press secretaries don't normally do this sort of thing.

josip · 10-11-2020 12:02PM

Is the Georgian Senate election,

1 four-horse race for 2 seats or
2 two-horse races for a single seat in each?

If the former, then do the Dems need to exercise near-perfect vote management so that their candidates get a near equal number of votes?
Surely all the Republicans have to do in that case is to favour one of their 2 candidates and sacrifice the other and they'll still get one of the seats?

prawnsambo · 10-11-2020 12:10PM

josip wrote: »

Is the Georgian Senate election,
1 four-horse race for 2 seats or

2 two-horse races for a single seat?

If the former, then do the Dems need to exercise near-perfect vote management so that their candidates get a near equal number of votes?
Surely all the Republicans have to do in that case is to favour one of their 2 candidates and sacrifice the other and they'll still get one of the seats?

The former. It's a normal cycle race between Perdue and Ossof, but the other seat is a Special election (basically a by-election). So they are two separate races for two separate seats.

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2020 12:34PM

Heard Nate Silver say on the 538 podcast that he could foresee a split result with Warnock & Perdue winning the two races. His reasoning was that Kelly Loeffler had run to the extreme right in her race and has been one of Trump's most vocal supporters. She also had a huge insider trading scandal at the beginning of the Covid period. All of those things combined might be enough to keep more moderate conservatives from voting from her whilst voting for Perdue in the other race. That of course would be enough to give the Republicans a 51-49 margin and control of the Senate.

everlast75 · 10-11-2020 12:46PM

Just on the voter fraud, this gentleman is a long suffering fact checker and is incredible to see in action.

This was recent tweet from him setting out results of a check into the MAGA claims

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1326000431546458113?s=20

OhHiMark · 10-11-2020 01:26PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The former. It's a normal cycle race between Perdue and Ossof, but the other seat is a Special election (basically a by-election). So they are two separate races for two separate seats.

Do you mean the latter?

salmocab · 10-11-2020 01:27PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Just on the voter fraud, this gentleman is a long suffering fact checker and is incredible to see in action.

This was recent tweet from him setting out results of a check into the MAGA claims

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1326000431546458113?s=20

Trumps team have decided that the future dead shouldn’t be allowed vote for Biden.

10-11-2020 01:41PM

josip wrote: »

Is the Georgian Senate election,
1 four-horse race for 2 seats or

2 two-horse races for a single seat?

If the former, then do the Dems need to exercise near-perfect vote management so that their candidates get a near equal number of votes?
Surely all the Republicans have to do in that case is to favour one of their 2 candidates and sacrifice the other and they'll still get one of the seats?

prawnsambo wrote: »

The former. It's a normal cycle race between Perdue and Ossof, but the other seat is a Special election (basically a by-election). So they are two separate races for two separate seats.

OhHiMark wrote: »

Do you mean the latter?

It's neither. It's two two-horse races for two seats. There is no "vote management" involved, same-party candidates do not take votes from each other

prawnsambo · 10-11-2020 01:52PM

OhHiMark wrote: »

Do you mean the latter?

As pointed out above, It was the former with a twist. But to be fair, I spelled it out in my reply. Two seats with two candidates running for each one. They are not interchangeable.

prawnsambo · 10-11-2020 01:57PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Heard Nate Silver say on the 538 podcast that he could foresee a split result with Warnock & Perdue winning the two races. His reasoning was that Kelly Loeffler had run to the extreme right in her race and has been one of Trump's most vocal supporters. She also had a huge insider trading scandal at the beginning of the Covid period. All of those things combined might be enough to keep more moderate conservatives from voting from her whilst voting for Perdue in the other race. That of course would be enough to give the Republicans a 51-49 margin and control of the Senate.

Both Loeffler and Perdue went after the SoS for Georgia (A Republican) for the result of the Presidential election. That may p1ss off a few Republicans as well. It certainly was not a good move imo. Both seats would be in play, but Loeffler is by far the most vulnerable.

josip · 10-11-2020 02:20PM

Apologies for the loose wording and the resulting confusion in the 2nd option.
Would have been better to ask

2 two-horse races for a single seat in each?

MJohnston · 10-11-2020 02:23PM

I presume the answer is yes, but — someone can win the runoffs without 50% of the vote, right?

BonnieSituation · 10-11-2020 02:29PM

MJohnston wrote: »

I presume the answer is yes, but — someone can win the runoffs without 50% of the vote, right?

It's not possible as there's only 2 people in each run-off, ie. someone will get a majority of some description.:D

Having a run-off with more than two candidates kinda defeats the purpose of the run-off.

The run-offs are only happening because neither Loeffler or Perdue achieve a minimum of 50% in the original multi-candidate races. They both fell just short.

Brussels Sprout · 10-11-2020 02:30PM

MJohnston wrote: »

I presume the answer is yes, but — someone can win the runoffs without 50% of the vote, right?

There are only 2 candidates in each so the winners will have a majority of the valid votes cast.

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 02:30PM

josip wrote: »

Apologies for the loose wording and the resulting confusion in the 2nd option.
Would have been better to ask

2 two-horse races for a single seat in each?

Georgia is split into 2 Senate "Districts" with a line going down from the N.E. to the S.W. it is simply a winner takes all in both districts, can go 2-0, 0-2 or 1-1. Obv for the Senate to go Dem the Dem's will need both seats.

It's hard to factor in how the whole Trump failure to concede will impact things, the runoff election is on the 5th of Jan and whatever is going to happen with regards to the presidency and how far it will be fought will certainly be apparent by then. If Trump goes down the path of there being conflicting Electors it will be well known at this point and likely to bating many Dem's into action for this runoff, if he goes quietly into the night, it may depress republican turnout. Very hard to say.

Senate2020ElectionII529px.png?itok=GRxz8zTU

Senate2020ElectionII529px.png?itok=GRxz8zTU

StringerBell · 10-11-2020 02:35PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Heard Nate Silver say on the 538 podcast that he could foresee a split result with Warnock & Perdue winning the two races. His reasoning was that Kelly Loeffler had run to the extreme right in her race and has been one of Trump's most vocal supporters. She also had a huge insider trading scandal at the beginning of the Covid period. All of those things combined might be enough to keep more moderate conservatives from voting from her whilst voting for Perdue in the other race. That of course would be enough to give the Republicans a 51-49 margin and control of the Senate.

While I don't dismiss what he is saying, Nate Silver has taken a bit of damage this past week along with many others in the polling and aggregate of polling landscape.

I think the two seats is a stretch for the Democrats too and think they are probably in with a 50/50 shot to take one.

Edit: This is as things stand - I would love for something to happen or to just be proven wrong of course.

Inquitus · 10-11-2020 02:43PM

StringerBell wrote: »

While I don't dismiss what he is saying, Nate Silver has taken a bit of damage this past week along with many others in the polling and aggregate of polling landscape.

I think the two seats is a stretch for the Democrats too and think they are probably in with a 50/50 shot to take one.

Edit: This is as things stand - I would love for something to happen or to just be proven wrong of course.

You can't really blame Nate as an aggregator of polls, if the underlying poll data is crap, as it was this year, then he has no chance of making sense of them. Whatever the reason for the massive polling miss, shy trumpers etc. etc. It was real and meant they were all off large amounts in some states, way outside the supposed margin of error.

BluePlanet · 10-11-2020 02:44PM

Well we finally have evidence of actual voter fraud in one of those contested states:

Trump Supporter Arrested For Requesting Absentee Ballot For Dead Mother
The president accuses Democrats of “voter fraud,” but one of his supporters became the first person in a Pennsylvania county charged with the crime in 30 years.

Robert R. Lynn, a registered Republican and Trump supporter in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, was arrested on Wednesday for allegedly requesting an absentee ballot for his mother, who died in 2015.

Lynn is being charged with voter fraud and forgery for faking his deceased mother’s signature on the absentee ballot request form.

County prosecutors have told local news outlets that it is the first case of alleged voter fraud in the county in three decades. County election authorities flagged the ballot request as suspicious in September, triggering the investigation that led to Lynn’s arrest. Lynn allegedly first denied the allegations to detectives, before admitting to the deed.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/-trump-supporter-arrested-voter-fraud-pennsylvania_n_5f91e43ec5b61c185f4848de?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAD6DT0kCEKLI0f0WXskaka1Q3vDqhDB06TjKybJ4QXH7pXWGGAY8gzPzll1IS_RPIgkbWz-yY2ekVVWpa5aAKx2hu_RXazibfsZD9VGoMm2tLlcL6HF-t0yDaHpCSqgWlacLn3orH9dW5d8Z2m66rbTWos6HRQkEdQt1PncaegpU

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Comments