US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Capt'n Midnight · 08-11-2020 04:35PM

440Hertz wrote: »

It depends how far it goes. If he’s trying to remain in the White House beyond 12:00 noon (Washington DC time) on 20 January he would be open to being physically evicted from the White House.
...
The mechanics of it have probably never been considered, but it would likely be a case of being escorted off the property by White House security.

The mechanics could be as simple as not letting him back in after a trip to a golf course. And that could be as simple as having a warning light on the helicopter forcing an immediate landing in the middle of nowhere.

Another approach is that he gets arrested and has to do the perp walk. Plenty of stuff he could be accused of, especially if people thing he's lost his power and influence.

Brussels Sprout · 08-11-2020 04:42PM

Famously, Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election had she just won another 80k votes across Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania.

Well just looking at the numbers as they currently stand this election was even closer then that.

The current, total cumulative margin in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia & Nebraska's 2nd district is only 71k votes. Flipping the 4 of those would have been enough to give Trump a narrow 270-268 win.

That margin is likely to come down further still as votes come in in Arizona.

Thanks to the Electoral College, this was about as tight as they come.

Capt'n Midnight · 08-11-2020 04:45PM

firemansam4 wrote: »

I think this may have been mentioned a few times before but I wonder will Trump even see through the remaining term of his presidency now?

He may just decide to resign just before handover and leave that to Pence.

He will claim that he doesn't want to take part in a sham from a fraudulent election and will vow to devote his time to uncovering the "truth" of how he sees he was robbed of power.

He could save 130,000 lives during the rest of his term by following medical advice and promoting masks.

https://www.dw.com/en/us-could-see-half-a-million-coronavirus-deaths-by-end-of-winter-study-warns/a-55379763

But he's still president and if he stepped down then Pence gets the job and I can't see any US politician refusing that.

Conspiracy theory would be that the first thing Pence would do is give Trump a presidential pardon. But that won't stop the civil or local stuff.

Girly Gal · 08-11-2020 04:48PM

Some people on here live in fantasy land, Trump will eventually have to accept the result, he definitely won't barricade himself in the White House. He might be a crass individual, but, he's not stupid, he probably knew this was a strong possibility and this is his last stand. As for him facing charges, that won't happen, there might be an "attempt" by the Biden administration to go after him, but, it'll all be for show and nothing will come of it, mainly because they know in 4 year's time the Republicans would do the same to them. On both sides there's too many skeletons that may come to light if they do presue Trump, so it'll be a case of letting sleeping dogs lie.

StringerBell · 08-11-2020 04:51PM

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

2000 is the obvious example which took 35 days in theory.

Well, Gore conceded on the night and then withdrew it when the landscape changed.

Edit: I see it's been dealt with

prawnsambo · 08-11-2020 04:53PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

He could save 130,000 lives during the rest of his term by following medical advice and promoting masks.

https://www.dw.com/en/us-could-see-half-a-million-coronavirus-deaths-by-end-of-winter-study-warns/a-55379763

But he's still president and if he stepped down then Pence gets the job and I can't see any US politician refusing that.

Conspiracy theory would be that the first thing Pence would do is give Trump a presidential pardon. But that won't stop the civil or local stuff.

You can't pardon somebody for crimes they haven't been charged with yet. Like it's not a get out of jail free card. And certainly not for crimes committed and indicted for at state level.

Carfacemandog · 08-11-2020 04:53PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Famously, Hillary Clinton would have won the 2016 election had she just won another 80k votes across Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania.

Well just looking at the numbers as they currently stand this election was even closer then that.

The current, total cumulative margin in Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia & Nebraska's 2nd district is only 71k votes. Flipping the 4 of those would have been enough to give Trump a narrow 270-268 win.

That margin is likely to come down further still as votes come in in Arizona.

Thanks to the Electoral College, this was about as tight as they come.

In a nation of 350mn, this is an excellent example of one of the key reasons that the US is fundamentally broken.

Carfacemandog · 08-11-2020 04:56PM

Girly Gal wrote: »

Trump will eventually have to accept the result, he definitely won't barricade himself in the White House. He might be a crass individual, but, he's not stupid,

Actually... He kind of is. Seemingly every time we hear "he won't do [X], he's not stupid" he immediately come flying out doing X, as if he needs to prove how stupid he is on a frequent basis. I expect that this won't be much different.

StringerBell · 08-11-2020 04:57PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You can't pardon somebody for crimes they haven't been charged with yet. Like it's not a get out of jail free card. And certainly not for crimes committed and indicted for at state level.

You can actually, federally. Nixon for example was pardoned for crimes he had not been charges with in relation to Watergate. The pardon can be used for presumptive future cases like that, incredibly. No pardon at all for state level to my knowledge.

looksee · 08-11-2020 04:59PM

He is setting the stage for everyone to forgive him all his iniquities in exchange for going quietly and not riling up his base. He thinks.

abff · 08-11-2020 05:08PM

looksee wrote: »

He is setting the stage for everyone to forgive him all his iniquities in exchange for going quietly and not riling up his base. He thinks.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was using refusal to concede as a bargaining chip for a presidential pardon from Biden. Whether Biden would go for it or not is another question entirely.

Brussels Sprout · 08-11-2020 05:08PM

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Can't ever see AOC ever getting a run at president. She is too much of a turn off for the moderates that can flip between Dem and Rep. Some Democrats believed the high visibility of AOC and the squad was a big problem for Biden's campaign.

Conservative media have had their sights on her since she came to prominence 2 years ago. She's their favourite bogey-(wo)man. I can't imagine the likes of CNN & MSNBC would be big fans of her democratic socialism ideas either. She hasn't a hope of winning a national election unless the electorate radically changes in the coming decades.

I see her path instead leading to the Senate which could be a long term home for her.

murpho999 · 08-11-2020 05:09PM

Carfacemandog wrote: »

In a nation of 350mn, this is an excellent example of one of the key reasons that the US is fundamentally broken.

How
People are entitled to vote for who the want?

I don't see how close election results means a country is broken?

everlast75 · 08-11-2020 05:10PM

abff wrote: »

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was using refusal to concede as a bargaining chip for a presidential pardon from Biden. Whether Biden would go for it or not is another question entirely.

He has zero cards.

His bluff game is awful.

Poor baby has never been told "no" in his life.

Can't bully his way out of it this time.

Girly Gal · 08-11-2020 05:13PM

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Actually... He kind of is. Seemingly every time we hear "he won't do [X], he's not stupid" he immediately come flying out doing X, as if he needs to prove how stupid he is on a frequent basis. I expect that this won't be much different.

All of that is playing to his support base, they lap it up, I'd say he doesn't give a toss for them, they were just a means to an end. This is the same "stupid guy " who managed to become president despite having no real political experience and a Republican party that grudgingly gave him their support when they realised he might win. It's that kind of attitude to him that the Democrats learned to their cost in 2016 and almost repeated this time, but, were probably saved by the Coronavirus, which tipped things in Biden's favour. The margin of victory is actually quite small despite the huge turnout. It's not the clear cut victory the media would have you believe. Biden takes over a deeply divided country which will remain divided even with Trump gone.

prawnsambo · 08-11-2020 05:17PM

I feel the time is right to add 'totally landscaped' to the dictionary. Meaning attempting something so badly that you end up having to settle for something greatly inferior. "We were supposed to book a nice holiday abroad but were totally landscaped into Butlins".

Brussels Sprout · 08-11-2020 05:18PM

murpho999 wrote: »

How
People are entitled to vote for who the want?

I don't see how close election results means a country is broken?

...but it's not really a close election - only in the contorted, anachronistic world of the electoral college.

At the same time as that 71k margin is being whittled down by votes coming in in Arizona the overall total margin is increasing by millions in California and New York. Millions of people are disenfranchised by the Electoral College. The USA is the only country where their main election by-passes all of their major cities.

Just because it's the convention doesn't make it any less democratic.

RandomName2 · 08-11-2020 05:23PM

droidus wrote: »

Its funny you mention that as it completely demolishes your argument. Here is their rating of the 2020 candidates based on public statements, manifestos etc.

And here are all the dem primary contenders. As you can see even Bernie Sanders, the radical left bogeyman is barely to the left of most centre left European politicians, which is to say, barely left at all.

Remember that Biden, in order to get elected, had to compromise.

He has to be in favor of fracking, and he has to tell the oil industry that their jobs won't be under immediate threat. That's just on the environmental front.

Biden has been known for political gaffs. Every time he opens his mouth he's liable to fall somewhat foul , which is particularly awkward for a politician attempting to flip states.

But I am personally hopeful for a politician who is built upon compromise. Pelosi probably does more harm than good to the Democratic Party. Having someone who wants to actively work with allies, and those on the other side of the chamber, will be refreshing (fingers crossed).

TomOnBoard · 08-11-2020 06:14PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

You can't pardon somebody for crimes they haven't been charged with yet. Like it's not a get out of jail free card. And certainly not for crimes committed and indicted for at state level.

A President CAN issue a pardon for ANY FEDERAL crime committed by a former POTUS while in office, even if not already charged. See Ford's blanket Nixon pardon.

As you correctly say, he cannot pardon a State crime, or prevent civil legal actions.

Blowfish · 08-11-2020 06:15PM

Girly Gal wrote: »

Some people on here live in fantasy land, Trump will eventually have to accept the result, he definitely won't barricade himself in the White House. He might be a crass individual, but, he's not stupid, he probably knew this was a strong possibility and this is his last stand.

Trump is a narcissist, don't underestimate what that means for his behaviour. He genuinely believes his own bs, including that the election was 'stolen' from him and that by rights he actually won. He won't be able to handle losing so will fight far far beyond what any sane person would. Once he has no more avenues to fight it, then is when he'll be most dangerous as he'll switch to burning the institutions around him to the ground as much as he can.

TomOnBoard · 08-11-2020 06:23PM

abff wrote: »

It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was using refusal to concede as a bargaining chip for a presidential pardon from Biden. Whether Biden would go for it or not is another question entirely.

He can resign as President and let Pence take over. Pence then issues a Ford/Nixon style blanket pardon for FEDERAL crimes while in office. Job done. I'd be concerned Biden would go for that just to get that **** off his plate. Pence would go for it to get a few minutes in the POTUS chair, and ingratiate himself with the Trump base. Pence would then become the de-facto leader of the GOP going into 2022 and 2024 elections. Pence runs for POTUS 2024 with Nikki Haley as VP Running Mate.. Bish! Bash! Bosh!

Carfacemandog · 08-11-2020 06:23PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

But I am personally hopeful for a politician who is built upon compromise. Pelosi probably does more harm than good to the Democratic Party. Having someone who wants to actively work with allies, and those on the other side of the chamber, will be refreshing (fingers crossed).

It would be... if we didn't already know exactly what the response on this republican side will be, e.g. The same as when Obama was president.

prawnsambo · 08-11-2020 06:29PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

...but it's not really a close election - only in the contorted, anachronistic world of the electoral college.

At the same time as that 71k margin is being whittled down by votes coming in in Arizona the overall total margin is increasing by millions in California and New York. Millions of people are disenfranchised by the Electoral College. The USA is the only country where their main election by-passes all of their major cities.

Just because it's the convention doesn't make it any less democratic.

The EC isn't perfect, but it was designed to do the exact opposite of what you think is wrong with it. It's a form of proportional representation where the smaller states are supposed to be represented in a way that prevents them from being completely blown out by the big cities and states.

The system needs updating though and there are parts of the US like Puerto Rico that get no say whatsoever. Other than the popular vote of course.

weisses · 08-11-2020 06:30PM

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Can't ever see AOC ever getting a run at president. She is too much of a turn off for the moderates that can flip between Dem and Rep. Some Democrats believed the high visibility of AOC and the squad was a big problem for Biden's campaign.

To me she looks like a perfect example of the "american dream"

VinLieger · 08-11-2020 06:40PM

weisses wrote: »

To me she looks like a perfect example of the "american dream"

Its funny that the republicans and their supporters are such big fans of pulling yourself up by your bootstraps etc yet with AOC who literally did just that they constantly complain that she used to work behind a bar

breezy1985 · 08-11-2020 06:46PM

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

She would fit in nicely with pbp/ rise here I think.
But she certainly isn't suitable for the upper echelons of American politics

Thats absolute nonsense she is well able for her current job which is in the upper echelons of US politics and will do way more in life than any average PBP politician

pixelburp · 08-11-2020 06:51PM

While the DNC remains relatively centrist, and the schism between it and the progressive wing stays hostile, there's simply no way someone like AOC would get the votes to put her as Candidate Cortez. Maybe if the ideological needle in the democrats swung more to the left, maybe. Sanders tried twice now and failed to cosy up to the Pelosi strata of the Dems, why would it be thought AOC could do better?

And that's before you get to "electability". AOC is hated by a large swath of the America voting public, rightly or wrongly. She's better off staying local and fighting for New York than comprising on a national level - it's a loselose scenario

AbusesToilets · 08-11-2020 07:01PM

pixelburp wrote: »

While the DNC remains relatively centrist, and the schism between it and the progressive wing stays hostile, there's simply no way someone like AOC would get the votes to put her as Candidate Cortez. Maybe if the ideological needle in the democrats swung more to the left, maybe. Sanders tried twice now and failed to cosy up to the Pelosi strata of the Dems, why would it be thought AOC could do better?

And that's before you get to "electability". AOC is hated by a large swath of the America voting public, rightly or wrongly. She's better off staying local and fighting for New York than comprising on a national level - it's a loselose scenario

It will be instructive to see what becomes of the house leadership position. While the Dems won the Presidency, I don't feel they can ignore their failure again at other levels. Just in NC, there's a marked difference between the vote total for Gov. Cooper and the other statewide candidates.

How much longer can the Democrats ignore the evidence that the progressive platform is a winning one ?

prawnsambo · 08-11-2020 07:12PM

AbusesToilets wrote: »

It will be instructive to see what becomes of the house leadership position. While the Dems won the Presidency, I don't feel they can ignore their failure again at other levels. Just in NC, there's a marked difference between the vote total for Gov. Cooper and the other statewide candidates.

How much longer can the Democrats ignore the evidence that the progressive platform is a winning one ?

That and the obvious question as to why the Republicans hate her so much. I suspect that they fear her and her policies. From a European viewpoint, she's about bog standard centre-left. But she always seems extremely well prepared, knows what she's talking about and can drill down on stuff to a very granular level. In short, she's a professional politician who's well versed in how to get elected and how to leverage her visibility. I suspect that more and more politicians will follow her example.

Water John · 08-11-2020 07:16PM

The Presidency of the US is wherever Biden is, it's not the WH. He can do it from Wilmington, Delaware if he wishes.

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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