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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,941 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    everlast75 wrote: »


    Hes claiming some legal win in PA which i cant see any info anywhere about


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,369 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

    Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

    You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,545 ✭✭✭droidus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,406 ✭✭✭jasonb


    AP have released a statement saying they're continuing to watch and analyse vote count results in Arizona. That's all the statement says really! I think what they're saying is we called it for Biden, and we still stand by that, but we're keeping an eye on it. Which I assume they're doing in all the counts! :) But it definitely doesn't sound like they're thinking of retracting their call...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

    Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

    You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.

    Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

    I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,583 ✭✭✭10000maniacs


    Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭MikeCork2009


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

    I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.

    Georgia is mentioned. It was just on the second slide of their presentation.

    8DHZ2NX.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Biden campaign streaming a "Where we Stand" video on Youtube.

    Claiming they are on track to win Nevada, Pennsylvania and calling Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. On PA - "We are nearing parity and continue to project most of the remaining ballots will given Biden the win".

    You would hope (and assume) that these are extremely educated predictions given the nature of the opposition should it go belly up.

    Note Trump's campaign are also predicting PA and AZ. I wouldn't put much stock into what both sides predict for themselves.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Worrying that Georgia isn't mentioned?

    I mean they are obviously biased. Trump will lay into them no matter what and it is expected both sides will map out their paths to victory.


    The numbers that seem to have just come out recently sound promising for joe Biden. I mean Biden can get Pennsylvania and that’s the ball game and could run up the score with the others. Trump is at 213 so presumably would need Pennsylvania in whatever run he would need to make to 270. I think it’s fair to say that Biden has more paths to 270 and with Pennsylvania he has a far more direct path.

    Edit: Georgia was mentioned in the video.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.

    What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?


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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    I think we're only getting Fulton County soon but I'm open to correction?

    Yeah. I was wrong.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Georgia is mentioned. It was just on the second slide of their presentation.

    Ty. Can't watch myself at the moment. Was worried they knew something for a moment as there is no way I wouldn't be calling Georgia for Biden with the publicly available data if I was on Bidens's team.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,366 ✭✭✭paul71


    Christy42 wrote: »
    Note Trump's campaign are also predicting PA and AZ. I wouldn't put much stock into what both sides predict for themselves.

    The last count of 13,000 (in the last 20 minutes) votes in Philadelphia came in at 12,000 for Biden 1,000 for Trump, looks like PA will be about 150,000 to 200,000 for Biden.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    14 min ago
    USPS processed thousands of ballots yesterday in battleground states
    From CNN's Paul Murphy
    According to data submitted today in federal court filings, the USPS processed thousands of ballots Wednesday in critical battleground states. If properly postmarked, those could be counted in accordance with state laws.

    This data does not tell us whether the ballots were postmarked by or on Election Day, or if they were delivered Wednesday.

    Here's a look at the processed ballots:

    In the Nevada Sierra district, which covers most of Nevada, 9,037 ballots were processed by USPS.
    In the Greensboro and Mid-Carolinas districts, 5,915 ballots were processed. These districts split North Carolina, and small parts of Virginia and South Carolina.
    In Pennsylvania, USPS processed 6,877 ballots across the state: 3,494 in the Central Pennsylvania district, 1,667 in the Philadelphia Metro district (this district does cover some parts of New Jersey and Delaware), and 1,716 in Western Pennsylvania.
    An interesting story from CNN about ballots the USPS found after that sweep. The ones to look at are Nevada and Pennsylvania.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,898 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    And now we see why Trump and friends tried to defund the postal service


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,501 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?
    Recount can be requested if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5%. The recount must be requested within two business days after county certification.
    Taken from here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,130 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Just under 15K difference in GA now


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 22,579 Mod ✭✭✭✭Brian?


    Anyone know what the longest count ever was in a US presidential election.

    This one must be close, it's been going on for 3 years now.

    they/them/theirs


    The more you can increase fear of drugs and crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.

    Noam Chomsky



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,363 ✭✭✭letowski


    Itssoeasy wrote: »
    What’s the threshold for a recount in Georgia do we know ?

    0.5%. And I'd expect it will be in that threshold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Brian? wrote: »
    Anyone know what the longest count ever was in a US presidential election.

    This one must be close, it's been going on for 3 years now.

    Florida in 2000 ? I’m sure there are elections in the early years of the history of America that took a long time because of the era.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,366 ✭✭✭paul71


    Does anyone know when Military votes come in? Are they typically the last, even after other postal votes? I am thinking that Georgia could be so close that that would make a difference.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,765 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    Georgia will be a recount anyway. Its going to be a few 1000 either way.

    Even so , a recount historically only changes results by a few hundred votes.

    Whatever result is callled later is most likely to be the final result.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,916 ✭✭✭spacecoyote


    I thought that Georgia had a much tighter recount threshold of 0.1% but may have read incorrectly, or that could be a different state?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Trumps lead in Georgia is down to just under 14,000.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,238 ✭✭✭✭extra gravy


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    4/5 am

    Is this our time? Wish I could do another late night but not able!


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    paul71 wrote: »
    Does anyone know when Military votes come in? Are they typically the last, even after other postal votes? I am thinking that Georgia could be so close that that would make a difference.

    Active Military personnel may break for Biden. Veterans go for Trump, but less so the younger they are

    https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,729 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I thought that Georgia had a much tighter recount threshold of 0.1% but may have read incorrectly, or that could be a different state?

    No, that's Arizona , it's 0.5% in Georgia


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,339 ✭✭✭✭StringerBell


    Have to be careful here because saying 'all votes get counted' is a bit misleading. The democrats fought for extremely lax restrictions in PA, the postmark one being indefensible (nobody has defended and I have challenged many to do so). So the democrats want crazily lax restrictions imo, and the Republicans want to stop that one, I wouldn't consider that voter suppression.

    Obviously people will disagree about different instances, this is politics and I accept both sides will fight for the outcome that favours them no matter what. But the idea that it is necessarily voter suppression to is a bit too much.

    (I didn't mean to imply you called it voter suppression, but it is the common theme I've heard)

    On the post mark one

    Why did the GOP not challenge this before the deadline to challenge it?

    "People say ‘go with the flow’ but do you know what goes with the flow? Dead fish."



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,501 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    538 has listed the current lawsuits from Trump / Republicans:
    Pennsylvania

    The Trump campaign and other Republicans have filed multiple lawsuits in Pennsylvania, claiming various kinds of election-related irregularities:
    • A lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign claiming that observers were not able to “meaningfully” oversee the count, and asking for the count to be stopped. On Thursday, a state appellate court issued an order guaranteeing that GOP ballot observers can watch the process within six feet. The order did not stop the count in Philadelphia, however.
    • Another lawsuit filed in state court by the Trump campaign and the RNC that tries to move up the deadline for when mail-in voters with missing ID information would need to provide that information. Currently the deadline is Nov. 12, but the Trump campaign wants it to be changed to Nov. 9.
    • Another state court lawsuit filed by Pennsylvania Republican candidates and voters, involving ballots that were corrected during the initial ballot-processing (“pre-canvassing”) period on Nov. 3.
    • A federal case filed by a Republican candidate objecting to the process of “curing” or correcting problems with mail-in ballots in Montgomery County, just outside Philadelphia. At a hearing yesterday, the judge in the case seemed skeptical that the Republican claims had affected the integrity of the election, and in any case, a relatively small number of ballots (fewer than 100) appear to have been affected.
    • The Trump campaign has asked to intervene as a party in the Supreme Court litigation over Pennsylvania’s ballot-receipt deadline, which was extended to Friday by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. The Supreme Court has declined twice to overrule the deadline, but several conservative justices indicated that they might be willing to revisit the case, potentially throwing the validity of any ballots postmarked on Election Day that arrive in that three-day window into question. However, it’s also not clear whether a large number of ballots are actually arriving late — Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said on Wednesday that there are only “hundreds” so far.

    Michigan
    • The Trump campaign is suing to stop the vote count in Michigan, claiming that it was not given access to observe the counting, and asking to review ballots that it was not able to witness. It’s not clear what the campaign is really trying to accomplish here, since Biden is leading in the state. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson also said that the claim “doesn’t really line up with the facts.”

    Georgia
    • The Trump campaign and the Georgia GOP filed a lawsuit asking a judge in Chatham County to make sure that late-arriving ballots are being properly segregated from on-time ballots. (In Georgia, ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day to count.) The campaign claims that the county might be mishandling ballots, but this appears to be based on a single allegation from a Republican poll observer involving a small number of ballots. In any case, the lawsuit isn’t seeking to stop on-time ballots from being counted.

    Wisconsin
    • The Trump campaign has indicated that it will file a formal recount request in Wisconsin — but this can’t happen until the last county has submitted its canvass to the state elections commission, which will happen sometime between Nov. 10 and 17. (And it’s worth mentioning here that recounts rarely reverse the outcome of elections — including in 2016, when Trump’s lead over Clinton was basically unchanged after a Wisconsin recount.)
    If that's the best they can come up with I don't see them getting very far to be honest.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,972 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Quin_Dub wrote: »
    No, that's Arizona , it's 0.5% in Georgia

    Which would explain why the AZ Secretary of State is confident there won’t be a recount in that state.


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