US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

quokula wrote: »

Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.

Not really. California is a whopping 55 votes. That's a full fifth of the way to win, from one state. A California Democrat can sit back, satisfied that he's given his candidate a great headstart. California Republicans, of course, are less happy about it.

everlast75 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/PaulBlu/status/1324349677660184585?s=19

This needs to be acknowledged.

It was Trump's plan to downplay the virus, get his supporters to the polls on the day and as democrats would most likely post their ballots to reduce COVID exposure, declare victory on the night and set the narrative that the postal votes were rigged.

This was all by design.

What, the fact that Michigan and Wisconsin, at least, have always allowed mail-in voters to change their mind and withdraw their vote (and thus the mail-in votes cannot be tallied ahead of time) is part of a plot to rig election victory? In that case, why didn't the Republicans running Florida think of such a dastardly scheme, when they presume that a mailed-in ballot cannot be changed and allow counting early?

I'm sorry if Mr Blumenthal thinks that speed of result reporting is the most important factor. Most of us can afford to wait a few days.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Can I defend that one?
Within reason (and I define that as having been postmarked within the normal postal time to get to the centre by polling day) I can't see why properly postmarked votes that get to the centre after polling day shouldn't be counted.

An interesting problem occurred in Florida back in the Gore/Bush days, when Gore attempted to ensure (in fairness, in accordance with Florida law) that no ballots without a valid postmark were counted. The catch is that military mail is not postmarked. That resulted in some backlash. Presumably they've figured out how to square that circle since.

Shelga wrote: »

Any chance of hundreds of thousands of incoming military votes swinging things either way? How do they figure in the electoral college?

Hopefully they didn't take too well to being called losers by Trump.

Active military personnel get to choose their home of record for all purposes (Voter registration, driving licenses, car registration, tax reporting) as either the address at which they entered service (i.e. their home county), or as their current permanent posting location. As a result, there are many arguments for a California soldier posted to Ft Hood, Texas, to register in Bell County, Texas (No income tax, 10% car registration costs etc) and vote locally, but a Texas airman posted to Edwards Air Force Base in California would likely wish to retain his home of record in Texas and vote by mail in Texas elections.
When overseas (on a ship, wherever), the mail-in vote goes to whatever home of record that they have chosen. As military personnel disproportionately come from Southern/SouthEastern US to begin with, combined with the Tax-free states such as Florida or Texas having large military communities and bases, they will have a larger impact there in the mail-in-tally than other locations.