US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Headshot · 05-11-2020 11:51AM

Very handy state of play from the Guardian

Election Day was Tuesday. It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Here’s how the key states are looking now…

Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Called for Biden by AP and Fox News, but seems still in play.
Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes.
Next update: Expected Thursday night local time (that’s late in the UK).

Georgia: 16 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 49.6–49.1, with 95% counted
Biden needs to win 60% of remaining votes, many coming from Democrat areas.
Next update: Secretary of state says they hope to have results today

Nevada: 6 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Biden
Biden leads 49.3-48.7, with 86% counted
The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in expected to skew Democrat.
Result expected noon ET/5pm UK

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Trump
Trump leads 50.1-48.7, with 95% counted
Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way
Mail ballots still accepted if they arrive by 12 November, so could be a long wait for certainty.

Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 50.7-48.1. 89% of vote in
Most votes yet to be counted are in strong Democratic urban areas
Result expected Friday, but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted which are postmarked on election day or before, but arrive after 3 November. Trump wants them tossed out.

Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Called for Biden. The Trump campaign is suing to halt counting of mail-in ballots

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Called for Biden
Biden’s lead is 49.4-48.8.
If the winning margin is less than 1%, then Trump is entitled to a recount, which the campaign say they will demand.

quokula · 05-11-2020 11:52AM

VinLieger wrote: »

I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.

duploelabs · 05-11-2020 11:56AM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

Panrich · 05-11-2020 12:05PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

Edit: The 'Advances to runoff' seems to confirm that.

Edit 2: What L1011 said below.

L1011 · 05-11-2020 12:06PM

Panrich wrote: »

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

No

Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.

L1011 · 05-11-2020 12:11PM

Should add, Americans call the system we use for single seats (President, by-elections) "Instant Runoff" because of looking at preferences immediately. Whereas we just consider it STV as its the same as multi-seat.

seamus · 05-11-2020 12:20PM

duploelabs wrote: »

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

bennyl10 · 05-11-2020 12:21PM

Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20

Roanmore · 05-11-2020 12:31PM

seamus wrote: »

That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

Even Scott Walker (ex WI Governor - Rep) said a recount was a waste of time.
He gave 2 examples where the number of votes turned over was miniscule.

Movementarian · 05-11-2020 12:34PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

Quin_Dub · 05-11-2020 12:34PM

L1011 wrote: »

No

Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Which is very interesting as that means any feckwittery Trump undertakes between now and January could result in this Republican senator contender being in trouble (or not as we seen Republican voters seem to have very short memories)

Depending on how the remaining votes in Georgia fall , both seats could end up in a run off

Loeffler/Warnock is definitely a run-off but in the Perdue/Ossoff race , Purdue is leading but only on 50.03% so if Ossoff closes the gap and brings Purdue back below 50% then they go to run-off as well.

That would mean 2 seats up for election - Which is the current GOP lead in the Senate.

If the Democrats could flip both , they'd take the Senate (assuming a Biden win).

It's a huge ask for them , they might take one but two would be a massive reach , especially given how the Senate/House races went for them in general.

But , Georgia could be utter carnage for the next 2 months if both seats are in play.

everlast75 · 05-11-2020 12:36PM

Can I submit this under "there's always a tweet"?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/264884389639491584?s=19

bennyl10 · 05-11-2020 12:38PM

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

he needs about 55-60% of whats left

certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 05-11-2020 12:38PM

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

GA is (still) "tilting Biden" according to NYT.

I would say it's likely based off all the projections I've seen but that's just my opinion.

Christy42 · 05-11-2020 12:43PM

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

Not sure. That info always seems to be hard to get for some reason.

I know 8hrs ago Georgia themselves said Biden needed 64% of the remaining vote. He has been hitting over 70% so presumably that has come down a bit. Definitely doable but Trump just needs a lucky batch somewhere. High odds of recount as well I would say.

castletownman · 05-11-2020 12:49PM

You know that familiar scene in every teen movie where the bully finally gets his/her comeuppance and ends up crying in front of everyone to much hilarity?

That is Trump right now.

eastie17 · 05-11-2020 12:50PM

[PHP][/PHP]

bennyl10 wrote: »

he needs about 55-60% of whats left

certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV

Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden? 264 to 214, Biden needing just Nevada to take it
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d

L1011 · 05-11-2020 12:51PM

eastie17 wrote: »

Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden?

Yes, but its still not actually guaranteed.

eastie17 · 05-11-2020 12:52PM

Christy42 wrote: »

Not sure. That info always seems to be hard to get for some reason.

I know 8hrs ago Georgia themselves said Biden needed 64% of the remaining vote. He has been hitting over 70% so presumably that has come down a bit. Definitely doable but Trump just needs a lucky batch somewhere. High odds of recount as well I would say.

19,000 votes in it now, with 2% left to count which by my very unscientific calculation is about 100K votes (poll seems to be about 5M votes)

bennyl10 · 05-11-2020 12:53PM

eastie17 wrote: »

[PHP][/PHP]

Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden? 264 to 214, Biden needing just Nevada to take it
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d

Yes but there is debate on if that as premature|(even if it looks very likely now)

If he gets Georgia is he as practically knocking on the door

Brian? · 05-11-2020 12:55PM

Only 70% of votes in Philly counted. Is that right?

Brian? · 05-11-2020 12:56PM

eastie17 wrote: »

19,000 votes in it now, with 2% left to count which by my very unscientific calculation is about 100K votes (poll seems to be about 5M votes)

It's going to be unbelievably close. Definitely recount territory.

Zookey123 · 05-11-2020 12:59PM

eastie17 wrote: »

19,000 votes in it now, with 2% left to count which by my very unscientific calculation is about 100K votes (poll seems to be about 5M votes)

58499 more votes for a majority depending on how exact the 98% count is.

peteeeed · 05-11-2020 01:10PM

Brian? wrote: »

Only 70% of votes in Philly counted. Is that right?

cnn saying 500,000 postal votes left to count

Itssoeasy · 05-11-2020 01:11PM

castletownman wrote: »

You know that familiar scene in every teen movie where the bully finally gets his/her comeuppance and ends up crying in front of everyone to much hilarity?

That is Trump right now.

What about the moment in those movies where the bully has a road to Damascus moment and realises the err... actually this is Donald trump so let’s not go mad. He doesn’t believe he’s ever wrong.

Brian? · 05-11-2020 01:11PM

peteeeed wrote: »

cnn saying 500,000 postal votes left to count

I can only see one winner in Pennsylvania so.

peteeeed · 05-11-2020 01:12PM

Brian? wrote: »

I can only see one winner in Pennsylvania so.

CNN hinting without saying the same thing

Big Pussy Bonpensiero · 05-11-2020 01:14PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Yes but there is debate on if that as premature|(even if it looks very likely now)

If he gets Georgia is he as practically knocking on the door

Arizona is essentially irrelevant at this point though with the way things are going in PA.

Trump can take back Arizona, he can hold on to Georgia and North Carolina, and he can take back Nevada too, but unless he takes Pennsylvania (which looks highly unlikely) he still won't win.

Itssoeasy · 05-11-2020 01:14PM

So it looks like it’ll be a couple of hours at least until there’s any calls. That call by Fox News and the AP of Arizona to Biden early doors leaves him on 264 and if Arizona goes to Biden which is six electoral votes Fox News and other networks will be out of step with each other and Fox News could have Biden as president elect and the others won’t because they haven’t called Arizona. Just from reading tweets this morning and seeing videos, the trump base and Fox News love affair is if not over, it’s on the rocks.

Strumms · 05-11-2020 01:15PM

It’s so weird and fûcked up, to be waking up, to read a headline, about an election in the supposed greatest democracy on earth..

“Donald Trump supporters - some armed with rifles and handguns - have descended on election counting centres where mail-in ballots continue to be tallied up.”

I mean what the actual fûck ?

https://news.sky.com/story/us-election-2020-trump-supporters-some-armed-with-rifles-gather-outside-vote-counting-centres-for-protests-12124244

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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