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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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seamus

duploelabs wrote: »

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

L1011

Should add, Americans call the system we use for single seats (President, by-elections) "Instant Runoff" because of looking at preferences immediately. Whereas we just consider it STV as its the same as multi-seat.

L1011

Panrich wrote: »

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

No

Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.

Panrich

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

Edit: The 'Advances to runoff' seems to confirm that.

Edit 2: What L1011 said below.

duploelabs

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

quokula

VinLieger wrote: »

I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.

Headshot

Very handy state of play from the Guardian

Election Day was Tuesday. It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Here’s how the key states are looking now…

Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Called for Biden by AP and Fox News, but seems still in play.
Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes.
Next update: Expected Thursday night local time (that’s late in the UK).

Georgia: 16 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 49.6–49.1, with 95% counted
Biden needs to win 60% of remaining votes, many coming from Democrat areas.
Next update: Secretary of state says they hope to have results today

Nevada: 6 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Biden
Biden leads 49.3-48.7, with 86% counted
The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in expected to skew Democrat.
Result expected noon ET/5pm UK

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Trump
Trump leads 50.1-48.7, with 95% counted
Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way
Mail ballots still accepted if they arrive by 12 November, so could be a long wait for certainty.

Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 50.7-48.1. 89% of vote in
Most votes yet to be counted are in strong Democratic urban areas
Result expected Friday, but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted which are postmarked on election day or before, but arrive after 3 November. Trump wants them tossed out.

Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Called for Biden. The Trump campaign is suing to halt counting of mail-in ballots

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Called for Biden
Biden’s lead is 49.4-48.8.
If the winning margin is less than 1%, then Trump is entitled to a recount, which the campaign say they will demand.

bennyl10

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

They’ve called(in pretty much every sense) though

[Deleted User]

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

Most places wont be at 100% until next week. Tidying up postal ballots, adding in overseas military ballots etc.

VinLieger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

Francie Barrett

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

awec

MattS1 wrote: »

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

They vote for people all the way down the ticket.

I am not sure what the story is this year, but in theory candidates can be on the ballot multiple times for multiple parties.

So for president, Biden could be listed twice if 2 parties put him forward as their nominee. You could then vote for Biden as the trump out party candidate rather than the democratic party candidate.

L1011

MattS1 wrote: »

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

There are multiple entries on the ballot. You vote for the House and for the Presidency and possibly others too. But all directly by name

murpho999

retalivity wrote: »

Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.

I see their count room last night and it just looks totally disorganised.

Loads of people in not clearly defined areas and papers everywhere.

Remember the count involves after verification taking them out of envelopes, flattening them out and feeding them into an optcal reader which does the counting.

When you compare to count centres here where it looks all organised and they deal with a more complicated PR system with multiple candidates I find it bizzare how long the remaining states are taking to count the last ballots.

bennyl10

Deleted User wrote: »

If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

based on the population centre sizes its though to see how he can turn it sufficiently

Brussels Sprout

AP, Fox News & The Guardian all have Biden on 264.
538 have him on 253
BBC have him on 243

Looks like AZ is the difference b/n 253 and 264
Not sure what BBC are up to but their site says they use Reuters for their data - looks like Reuters have not officially called Wisconsin - probably over the recount

[Deleted User]

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

OK thanks. I saw something on the 538 blog about a batch coming in from that county where Trump was ahead by 20% so I guess it's not going to be all Dem majority areas there but hopefully it will overall

If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

retalivity

Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Biden is 64K votes ahead with 86% counted

Most of the votes left to count are in Maricopa County which includes Phoenix

OK thanks. I saw something on the 538 blog about a batch coming in from that county where Trump was ahead by 20% so I guess it's not going to be all Dem majority areas there but hopefully it will overall

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Al Gore's running mate's son (Lieberman) was running for the Democrats in that as well but last I saw he was polling in low single digits and facing calls to drop out to boost Warnock

Christy42

From Republican statements the Republicans themselves see their path to victory being AZ, PA, NC, Georgia.

This is good. With only 1 path left (since they seem to think Nevada unlikely themselves) it just needs one more thing to go Bidens way. I figure Republican camp will be biased for Republicans so if they see Nevada as finished it likely is.

Will be happier when this is done with and certain. While both sides are projecting confidence Trump and his aides various meltdowns make me wonder if the strategists have given up in private?

Edit: on AZ, AP and Fox called that weirdly early on the basis of mail in ballots expected to go for Biden but I think AZ Republicans have a history of mailing in ballots so it will be close.

On the Georgia race mentioned above, there will be a run off vote since no one got 50%. Running a second candidate won't hurt them since they will now have a 1 vs 1.

Brussels Sprout

I just woke up - what's the story with AZ? AP seem to have called it on their map but I saw a tweet from nate Silver saying it's still very close (from hours ago).

UpBack1234

Francie Barrett wrote: »

She would say that, she's failed in her attempt to be elected.

And of course the whole problem with the GOP is the rank disingenuousness that pervades their every word. If Trump was benefiting from this exact scenario they'd be singing its praises.

Francie Barrett

Call me Al wrote: »

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

She would say that, she's failed in her attempt to be elected.

VinLieger

awec wrote: »

No the counts don't stop.

Nevada has till Thursday morning, i think all the others are still going

[Deleted User]

Call me Al wrote: »

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

Shameless

https://twitter.com/Kathy4Truth/status/1323877905651453952

awec

Shelga wrote: »

Is nothing happening now for the next few hours? Do they stop the counts overnight so people can go home and sleep?

No the counts don't stop.

Shelga

Is nothing happening now for the next few hours? Do they stop the counts overnight so people can go home and sleep?

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

In that case, if the split remains the same, even if it goes 50/50 or reverses, I don't see a path to victory in Arizona for Trump. Giving him a 20-40% margin in the (estimated) remaining votes just about gets the gap to 30k. All the caveats thrown in of course.

I cant see it either, but its not as straighforward with the postal votes as WI, MI or PA