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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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retalivity

Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

[Deleted User]

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

OK thanks. I saw something on the 538 blog about a batch coming in from that county where Trump was ahead by 20% so I guess it's not going to be all Dem majority areas there but hopefully it will overall

If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

Brussels Sprout

AP, Fox News & The Guardian all have Biden on 264.
538 have him on 253
BBC have him on 243

Looks like AZ is the difference b/n 253 and 264
Not sure what BBC are up to but their site says they use Reuters for their data - looks like Reuters have not officially called Wisconsin - probably over the recount

bennyl10

Deleted User wrote: »

If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

based on the population centre sizes its though to see how he can turn it sufficiently

murpho999

retalivity wrote: »

Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.

I see their count room last night and it just looks totally disorganised.

Loads of people in not clearly defined areas and papers everywhere.

Remember the count involves after verification taking them out of envelopes, flattening them out and feeding them into an optcal reader which does the counting.

When you compare to count centres here where it looks all organised and they deal with a more complicated PR system with multiple candidates I find it bizzare how long the remaining states are taking to count the last ballots.

L1011

MattS1 wrote: »

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

There are multiple entries on the ballot. You vote for the House and for the Presidency and possibly others too. But all directly by name

awec

MattS1 wrote: »

Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

They vote for people all the way down the ticket.

I am not sure what the story is this year, but in theory candidates can be on the ballot multiple times for multiple parties.

So for president, Biden could be listed twice if 2 parties put him forward as their nominee. You could then vote for Biden as the trump out party candidate rather than the democratic party candidate.

Francie Barrett

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

VinLieger

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

[Deleted User]

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

Most places wont be at 100% until next week. Tidying up postal ballots, adding in overseas military ballots etc.

bennyl10

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

They’ve called(in pretty much every sense) though

Headshot

Very handy state of play from the Guardian

Election Day was Tuesday. It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Here’s how the key states are looking now…

Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Called for Biden by AP and Fox News, but seems still in play.
Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes.
Next update: Expected Thursday night local time (that’s late in the UK).

Georgia: 16 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 49.6–49.1, with 95% counted
Biden needs to win 60% of remaining votes, many coming from Democrat areas.
Next update: Secretary of state says they hope to have results today

Nevada: 6 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Biden
Biden leads 49.3-48.7, with 86% counted
The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in expected to skew Democrat.
Result expected noon ET/5pm UK

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
Toss-up but leans Trump
Trump leads 50.1-48.7, with 95% counted
Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way
Mail ballots still accepted if they arrive by 12 November, so could be a long wait for certainty.

Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Toss-up
Trump leads 50.7-48.1. 89% of vote in
Most votes yet to be counted are in strong Democratic urban areas
Result expected Friday, but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted which are postmarked on election day or before, but arrive after 3 November. Trump wants them tossed out.

Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Called for Biden. The Trump campaign is suing to halt counting of mail-in ballots

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Called for Biden
Biden’s lead is 49.4-48.8.
If the winning margin is less than 1%, then Trump is entitled to a recount, which the campaign say they will demand.

quokula

VinLieger wrote: »

I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.

duploelabs

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

Panrich

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

Edit: The 'Advances to runoff' seems to confirm that.

Edit 2: What L1011 said below.

L1011

Panrich wrote: »

Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

No

Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.

L1011

Should add, Americans call the system we use for single seats (President, by-elections) "Instant Runoff" because of looking at preferences immediately. Whereas we just consider it STV as its the same as multi-seat.

seamus

duploelabs wrote: »

Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%

That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

bennyl10

Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20

Roanmore

seamus wrote: »

That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

Even Scott Walker (ex WI Governor - Rep) said a recount was a waste of time.
He gave 2 examples where the number of votes turned over was miniscule.

Movementarian

bennyl10 wrote: »

Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

Quin_Dub

L1011 wrote: »

No

Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Which is very interesting as that means any feckwittery Trump undertakes between now and January could result in this Republican senator contender being in trouble (or not as we seen Republican voters seem to have very short memories)

Depending on how the remaining votes in Georgia fall , both seats could end up in a run off

Loeffler/Warnock is definitely a run-off but in the Perdue/Ossoff race , Purdue is leading but only on 50.03% so if Ossoff closes the gap and brings Purdue back below 50% then they go to run-off as well.

That would mean 2 seats up for election - Which is the current GOP lead in the Senate.

If the Democrats could flip both , they'd take the Senate (assuming a Biden win).

It's a huge ask for them , they might take one but two would be a massive reach , especially given how the Senate/House races went for them in general.

But , Georgia could be utter carnage for the next 2 months if both seats are in play.

everlast75

Can I submit this under "there's always a tweet"?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/264884389639491584?s=19

bennyl10

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

he needs about 55-60% of whats left

certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

GA is (still) "tilting Biden" according to NYT.

I would say it's likely based off all the projections I've seen but that's just my opinion.

Christy42

Movementarian wrote: »

This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

Not sure. That info always seems to be hard to get for some reason.

I know 8hrs ago Georgia themselves said Biden needed 64% of the remaining vote. He has been hitting over 70% so presumably that has come down a bit. Definitely doable but Trump just needs a lucky batch somewhere. High odds of recount as well I would say.

castletownman

You know that familiar scene in every teen movie where the bully finally gets his/her comeuppance and ends up crying in front of everyone to much hilarity?

That is Trump right now.

eastie17

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bennyl10 wrote: »

he needs about 55-60% of whats left

certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV

Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden? 264 to 214, Biden needing just Nevada to take it
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d

L1011

eastie17 wrote: »

Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden?

Yes, but its still not actually guaranteed.