Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

1…101102104106107…238

Comments

  • #3092
    retalivity
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,575 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.


  • #3093
    0gac3yjefb5sv7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,945 ✭✭✭0gac3yjefb5sv7


    Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?


  • #3094
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    OK thanks. I saw something on the 538 blog about a batch coming in from that county where Trump was ahead by 20% so I guess it's not going to be all Dem majority areas there but hopefully it will overall

    If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

    531849.JPG


  • #3095
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,909 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    AP, Fox News & The Guardian all have Biden on 264.
    538 have him on 253
    BBC have him on 243

    Looks like AZ is the difference b/n 253 and 264
    Not sure what BBC are up to but their site says they use Reuters for their data - looks like Reuters have not officially called Wisconsin - probably over the recount


  • #3096
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,607 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Deleted User wrote: »
    If you look at the data, there are a lot of Trump counties with outstanding ballots, however Maricopa (Pheonix) and Pima (Tuscon) are the overwhelming population centres in the state

    531849.JPG

    based on the population centre sizes its though to see how he can turn it sufficiently


  • Advertisement
  • #3097
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,929 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    retalivity wrote: »
    Watching CNN here - the people counting the votes in Georgia are volunteers??? At least in Ireland people get paid to do it.

    I see their count room last night and it just looks totally disorganised.

    Loads of people in not clearly defined areas and papers everywhere.

    Remember the count involves after verification taking them out of envelopes, flattening them out and feeding them into an optcal reader which does the counting.

    When you compare to count centres here where it looks all organised and they deal with a more complicated PR system with multiple candidates I find it bizzare how long the remaining states are taking to count the last ballots.


  • #3098
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,224 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

    There are multiple entries on the ballot. You vote for the House and for the Presidency and possibly others too. But all directly by name


  • #3099
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 56,215 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    MattS1 wrote: »
    Do the US vote for a particular Red/Blue local candidate in each county or do they have to vote just directly for Trump/Biden?

    They vote for people all the way down the ticket.

    I am not sure what the story is this year, but in theory candidates can be on the ballot multiple times for multiple parties.

    So for president, Biden could be listed twice if 2 parties put him forward as their nominee. You could then vote for Biden as the trump out party candidate rather than the democratic party candidate.


  • #3100
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,395 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.


  • #3101
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,485 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.


    I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%


  • Advertisement
  • #3102
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

    Most places wont be at 100% until next week. Tidying up postal ballots, adding in overseas military ballots etc.


  • #3103
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,607 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

    They’ve called(in pretty much every sense) though


  • #3104
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 56,089 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Very handy state of play from the Guardian

    Election Day was Tuesday. It’s Thursday and we still don’t know who the next president of the United States is going to be. Here’s how the key states are looking now…

    Arizona: 11 electoral votes
    Called for Biden by AP and Fox News, but seems still in play.
    Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
    Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes.
    Next update: Expected Thursday night local time (that’s late in the UK).

    Georgia: 16 electoral votes
    Toss-up
    Trump leads 49.6–49.1, with 95% counted
    Biden needs to win 60% of remaining votes, many coming from Democrat areas.
    Next update: Secretary of state says they hope to have results today

    Nevada: 6 electoral votes
    Toss-up but leans Biden
    Biden leads 49.3-48.7, with 86% counted
    The lead is fewer than 8,000 but remaining mail-in expected to skew Democrat.
    Result expected noon ET/5pm UK

    North Carolina: 15 electoral votes
    Toss-up but leans Trump
    Trump leads 50.1-48.7, with 95% counted
    Biden needs two-thirds of mail-in ballots to go his way
    Mail ballots still accepted if they arrive by 12 November, so could be a long wait for certainty.

    Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
    Toss-up
    Trump leads 50.7-48.1. 89% of vote in
    Most votes yet to be counted are in strong Democratic urban areas
    Result expected Friday, but already subject to Trump legal challenges over mail-in ballots being counted which are postmarked on election day or before, but arrive after 3 November. Trump wants them tossed out.

    Michigan: 16 electoral votes
    Called for Biden. The Trump campaign is suing to halt counting of mail-in ballots

    Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
    Called for Biden
    Biden’s lead is 49.4-48.8.
    If the winning margin is less than 1%, then Trump is entitled to a recount, which the campaign say they will demand.


  • #3105
    quokula
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,845 ✭✭✭quokula


    VinLieger wrote: »
    I think its because they havent certified yet, but also look at other states that are already called many are still nowhere near finished California is still on 74%

    Must be a weird atmosphere counting somewhere like California, seeing the state already called the second the polls close and then quietly counting millions upon millions of ballots while the country completely ignores them and focuses on much smaller states where votes count for more due to the archaic electoral college system.


  • #3106
    duploelabs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭duploelabs


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Why the heck is the Wisconsin count still going? It's been stuck at 99% for a day now.

    Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%


  • #3107
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,186 ✭✭✭Panrich


    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

    YaCYQfY.png

    Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

    Edit: The 'Advances to runoff' seems to confirm that.

    Edit 2: What L1011 said below.


  • #3108
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,224 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Panrich wrote: »
    Isn't there a rule in Senate elections that if no candidate gets 50% of the vote on first preference, they look at who you put at no.2 on your ballot. That would put one of the republicans in the lead if they transfer.

    No

    Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.


  • #3109
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,224 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Should add, Americans call the system we use for single seats (President, by-elections) "Instant Runoff" because of looking at preferences immediately. Whereas we just consider it STV as its the same as multi-seat.


  • #3110
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,173 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    duploelabs wrote: »
    Could be something to do with the recount if less than 1%
    That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

    It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

    So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.


  • #3111
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,607 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20


  • Advertisement
  • #3112
    Roanmore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭Roanmore


    seamus wrote: »
    That's probably it. If it's less than 1% they probably have to give some time for recounts to be requested before they can declare.

    It's worth noting though that no recount has ever changed the outcome by more than a few hundred votes. In general there's about a 0.01% margin of error in the count process. It's more rigorous than just putting pieces of paper on a table and keeping count in your head, so comes out quite accurate.

    So recounts are really little more than a toddler tantrum unless the count is super close.

    Even Scott Walker (ex WI Governor - Rep) said a recount was a waste of time.
    He gave 2 examples where the number of votes turned over was miniscule.


  • #3113
    Movementarian
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 271 ✭✭Movementarian


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    Narrowing even further in Georgia https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1324308280705978369?s=20

    This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....


  • #3114
    Quin_Dub
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 17,366 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    L1011 wrote: »
    No

    Georgia will have a run-off between the top two in January.
    correct horse battery staple wrote: »
    Which is very interesting as that means any feckwittery Trump undertakes between now and January could result in this Republican senator contender being in trouble (or not as we seen Republican voters seem to have very short memories)

    Depending on how the remaining votes in Georgia fall , both seats could end up in a run off

    Loeffler/Warnock is definitely a run-off but in the Perdue/Ossoff race , Purdue is leading but only on 50.03% so if Ossoff closes the gap and brings Purdue back below 50% then they go to run-off as well.

    That would mean 2 seats up for election - Which is the current GOP lead in the Senate.

    If the Democrats could flip both , they'd take the Senate (assuming a Biden win).

    It's a huge ask for them , they might take one but two would be a massive reach , especially given how the Senate/House races went for them in general.

    But , Georgia could be utter carnage for the next 2 months if both seats are in play.


  • #3115
    everlast75
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,372 ✭✭✭✭everlast75


    Can I submit this under "there's always a tweet"?

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/264884389639491584?s=19

    Elect a clown... Expect a circus



  • #3116
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,607 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Movementarian wrote: »
    This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

    he needs about 55-60% of whats left

    certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

    he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV


  • #3117
    Big Pussy Bonpensiero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,801 ✭✭✭Big Pussy Bonpensiero


    Movementarian wrote: »
    This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

    GA is (still) "tilting Biden" according to NYT.

    I would say it's likely based off all the projections I've seen but that's just my opinion.


  • #3118
    Christy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,111 ✭✭✭Christy42


    Movementarian wrote: »
    This is nerve wracking....is there a chance for Biden with what is left to count?....

    Not sure. That info always seems to be hard to get for some reason.

    I know 8hrs ago Georgia themselves said Biden needed 64% of the remaining vote. He has been hitting over 70% so presumably that has come down a bit. Definitely doable but Trump just needs a lucky batch somewhere. High odds of recount as well I would say.


  • #3119
    castletownman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,038 ✭✭✭✭castletownman


    You know that familiar scene in every teen movie where the bully finally gets his/her comeuppance and ends up crying in front of everyone to much hilarity?

    That is Trump right now.


  • #3120
    eastie17
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 839 ✭✭✭eastie17


    [PHP][/PHP]
    bennyl10 wrote: »
    he needs about 55-60% of whats left

    certainly a chance but it's gonna bae on a knife edge

    he's looking good in AZ and on what has been counted in NV

    Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden? 264 to 214, Biden needing just Nevada to take it
    https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d


  • Advertisement
  • #3121
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,224 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    eastie17 wrote: »
    Havent the AP already called AZ for Biden?

    Yes, but its still not actually guaranteed.


Advertisement
Advertisement