US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Roanmore wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, exactly what I was saying earlier. Rudy is in PA trying to get the count stopped as they are 100k ahead but in AZ they want every vote counted.
Makes no sense and you'd wonder would it hurt any legal challenge they might try and initiate.

That argument would get thrown out of court immediately due to the inconsistency. Regardless of the Supreme Court being stacked with two of Trumps picks I'd imagine they'd be glad to be rid of him as he brings a high possibility of a constitutional crisis.

bennyl10 wrote: »

CNN saying Biden will be very close on georgia

but he should hold in Nevada and Arizona

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

I think about 60% required for Trump in Arizona. Not sure where remaining votes are coming from in terms of mail in/city etc.

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a caveat with Arizona - a large amount of assumptions that postal votes skew blue. There is a longstanding significant postal vote in Arizona among Republicans, so will be more represented in the postal votes than elsewhere. This is however a certain section of the republican population, traditional Arizona McCain voters, probably the Republicans most likely to vote against Trump.

Yeah, that's the query I have over all the data. Are the postal votes tagged by county or do they just 'float' over the whole state?

Morning everyone. Slept like a log last night after only getting the sole hour the night before.

So when do we expect to know Arizona and Georgia results?

just watching cnn
2 separate groups of trump fans

'stop the vote stop the vote stop the vote'


'count the vote count the vote count the vote'


this is a chris morris sketch or black mirror

Deleted User wrote: »

By county

In that case, if the split remains the same, even if it goes 50/50 or reverses, I don't see a path to victory in Arizona for Trump. Giving him a 20-40% margin in the (estimated) remaining votes just about gets the gap to 30k. All the caveats thrown in of course.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, that's the query I have over all the data. Are the postal votes tagged by county or do they just 'float' over the whole state?

One would presume that postal votes get delivered to the relevant district rather than a central counting centre for the state, but maybe I'm wrong.

Nobody seems to be indicating any question over Az. There are about 400k votes to count and Biden is up by 70k. Which means that Trump will need to win 59% of these in order to take Az. Unless there's a very serious shift back towards him, that seems very unlikely.

Biden seems to be climbing in a lot of those other marginal states.

The AP tracker on Google is giving 264 electoral college votes to Biden. Which means he just needs one more of the outstanding states to get over the line. And by all accounts it looks like either NV or PA will definitely come in for him.

Biden needs to take the remaining votes in PA 60:40 to win it, and everyone seems confident that's going to happen.

Georgia is probably a no go on the numbers. Biden would need a huge number of the last few votes to go his way.

All eyes are on PA now because if that swings to Biden, it's game over. No amount of recounts or bullsh1t lawsuits is going to turn the election back to Trump. He only really needs Nevada, but if it's 270 -v- 268 and Nevada is marginal, the lying and complaining and endless lawsuits will be insufferable. If Biden wins by 290 (or even 296), the GOP will tell Donnie to go and fight his own battles and will abandon him to focus on the next thing.

PA not expected to publish a final count until tomorrow, so stands to be a bit of a nail biter day.

Call me Al wrote: »

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

She would say that, she's failed in her attempt to be elected.

I just woke up - what's the story with AZ? AP seem to have called it on their map but I saw a tweet from nate Silver saying it's still very close (from hours ago).

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Al Gore's running mate's son (Lieberman) was running for the Democrats in that as well but last I saw he was polling in low single digits and facing calls to drop out to boost Warnock