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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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[Deleted User]

Roanmore wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

He needs two of them though. Or at least NV itself isn't enough to put him over the line.

Also why are there protestors in Arizona? Biden was ahead so they want them to count the votes and if they didn't protest they would be counting the votes. I am really confused as to what they want out of that.[/QUOTE]

Yeah, exactly what I was saying earlier. Rudy is in PA trying to get the count stopped as they are 100k ahead but in AZ they want every vote counted.
Makes no sense and you'd wonder would it hurt any legal challenge they might try and initiate.

That argument would get thrown out of court immediately due to the inconsistency. Regardless of the Supreme Court being stacked with two of Trumps picks I'd imagine they'd be glad to be rid of him as he brings a high possibility of a constitutional crisis.

bennyl10

CNN saying Biden will be very close on georgia

but he should hold in Nevada and Arizona

prawnsambo

bennyl10 wrote: »

CNN saying Biden will be very close on georgia

but he should hold in Nevada and Arizona

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

0gac3yjefb5sv7

What are the next States due to post results? Will we have a winner today

Christy42

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

I think about 60% required for Trump in Arizona. Not sure where remaining votes are coming from in terms of mail in/city etc.

prawnsambo

Christy42 wrote: »

I think about 60% required for Trump in Arizona. Not sure where remaining votes are coming from in terms of mail in/city etc.

The majority (Max 140k) are tagged to Clark County (Las Vegas) which is currently split 52/46 for Biden.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, I had a close look at Georgia using the data on Decision Desk HQ. There's a possible 18k margin available to Biden based on counties that have a reasonable amount of votes left to count (using the lower of the %age range tbf). There are also a lot of bigger voting areas that are incomplete, but where 1% of the vote would translate into anything from a 3k to a 5k margin. So too close to call, but there is definitely a path to victory there.

Using the same criteria, I can't see a path to victory for Trump in Arizona. Remaining numbers are too small (assuming they are correct of course).

There is a caveat with Arizona - a large amount of assumptions that postal votes skew blue. There is a longstanding significant postal vote in Arizona among Republicans, so will be more represented in the postal votes than elsewhere. This is however a certain section of the republican population, traditional Arizona McCain voters, probably the Republicans most likely to vote against Trump.

Quin_Dub

All.

A fair number of below standard posts , one liners etc. deleted from overnight.

I know it's a long slog , but let's keep the standards up please.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

There is a caveat with Arizona - a large amount of assumptions that postal votes skew blue. There is a longstanding significant postal vote in Arizona among Republicans, so will be more represented in the postal votes than elsewhere. This is however a certain section of the republican population, traditional Arizona McCain voters, probably the Republicans most likely to vote against Trump.

Yeah, that's the query I have over all the data. Are the postal votes tagged by county or do they just 'float' over the whole state?

peteeeed

Quin_Dub wrote: »

All.

A fair number of below standard posts , one liners etc. deleted from overnight.

I know it's a long slog , but let's keep the standards up please.

fair play , i'd have given up

All_in_Flynn

Morning everyone. Slept like a log last night after only getting the sole hour the night before.

So when do we expect to know Arizona and Georgia results?

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, that's the query I have over all the data. Are the postal votes tagged by county or do they just 'float' over the whole state?

By county

peteeeed

just watching cnn
2 separate groups of trump fans

'stop the vote stop the vote stop the vote'

'count the vote count the vote count the vote'

this is a chris morris sketch or black mirror

The Raging Bile Duct

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Trump or one of his offspring

Highly doubt it. He's bleeding GOP support at the moment and if/when he loses this election, Deutsche Bank are waiting in the wings to seize his assets if he can't pay back his debts. Things are going to get very messy for the Trump clan.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

By county

In that case, if the split remains the same, even if it goes 50/50 or reverses, I don't see a path to victory in Arizona for Trump. Giving him a 20-40% margin in the (estimated) remaining votes just about gets the gap to 30k. All the caveats thrown in of course.

Hurrache

It's a tradition at the new presidents inauguration for the outgoing president to leave a letter for the incoming one, and here's Bush when he conceded to Clinton.
I just can't imagine how it's going to go when Trump is on his way out, he'll trash the country out of spite in the next couple of months before storming out.

https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1324280879561232385

[Deleted User]

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

Highly doubt it. He's bleeding GOP support at the moment and if/when he loses this election, Deutsche Bank are waiting in the wings to seize his assets if he can't pay back his debts. Things are going to get very messy for the Trump clan.

If the Trumpist's unite around one candidate, I wouldn't rule out one of the family being in the frame, regardless of what the GOP want. They didn't want Trump in 2016 remember, but could do nothing about it. A political run from within the family may be their only option to keep the wolf from the door. Essentially using MAGA themed merchandise, book deals, cable TV shows and events to keep some revenue rolling in to maintain the successful family facade, scamming every penny they can from their base as they go

Call me Al

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

seamus

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah, that's the query I have over all the data. Are the postal votes tagged by county or do they just 'float' over the whole state?

One would presume that postal votes get delivered to the relevant district rather than a central counting centre for the state, but maybe I'm wrong.

Nobody seems to be indicating any question over Az. There are about 400k votes to count and Biden is up by 70k. Which means that Trump will need to win 59% of these in order to take Az. Unless there's a very serious shift back towards him, that seems very unlikely.

Biden seems to be climbing in a lot of those other marginal states.

The AP tracker on Google is giving 264 electoral college votes to Biden. Which means he just needs one more of the outstanding states to get over the line. And by all accounts it looks like either NV or PA will definitely come in for him.

Biden needs to take the remaining votes in PA 60:40 to win it, and everyone seems confident that's going to happen.

Georgia is probably a no go on the numbers. Biden would need a huge number of the last few votes to go his way.

All eyes are on PA now because if that swings to Biden, it's game over. No amount of recounts or bullsh1t lawsuits is going to turn the election back to Trump. He only really needs Nevada, but if it's 270 -v- 268 and Nevada is marginal, the lying and complaining and endless lawsuits will be insufferable. If Biden wins by 290 (or even 296), the GOP will tell Donnie to go and fight his own battles and will abandon him to focus on the next thing.

PA not expected to publish a final count until tomorrow, so stands to be a bit of a nail biter day.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

In that case, if the split remains the same, even if it goes 50/50 or reverses, I don't see a path to victory in Arizona for Trump. Giving him a 20-40% margin in the (estimated) remaining votes just about gets the gap to 30k. All the caveats thrown in of course.

I cant see it either, but its not as straighforward with the postal votes as WI, MI or PA

Shelga

Is nothing happening now for the next few hours? Do they stop the counts overnight so people can go home and sleep?

awec

Shelga wrote: »

Is nothing happening now for the next few hours? Do they stop the counts overnight so people can go home and sleep?

No the counts don't stop.

[Deleted User]

Call me Al wrote: »

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

Shameless

https://twitter.com/Kathy4Truth/status/1323877905651453952

VinLieger

awec wrote: »

No the counts don't stop.

Nevada has till Thursday morning, i think all the others are still going

Francie Barrett

Call me Al wrote: »

Kathy Barnette, GOP congressional candidate in Pennsylvania, on Fox news just now compared the US election to elections in Afghanistan.

A tale of two elections apparently. Leading at the start and suddenly all these postal ballots.

She would say that, she's failed in her attempt to be elected.

UpBack1234

Francie Barrett wrote: »

She would say that, she's failed in her attempt to be elected.

And of course the whole problem with the GOP is the rank disingenuousness that pervades their every word. If Trump was benefiting from this exact scenario they'd be singing its praises.

Brussels Sprout

I just woke up - what's the story with AZ? AP seem to have called it on their map but I saw a tweet from nate Silver saying it's still very close (from hours ago).

Christy42

From Republican statements the Republicans themselves see their path to victory being AZ, PA, NC, Georgia.

This is good. With only 1 path left (since they seem to think Nevada unlikely themselves) it just needs one more thing to go Bidens way. I figure Republican camp will be biased for Republicans so if they see Nevada as finished it likely is.

Will be happier when this is done with and certain. While both sides are projecting confidence Trump and his aides various meltdowns make me wonder if the strategists have given up in private?

Edit: on AZ, AP and Fox called that weirdly early on the basis of mail in ballots expected to go for Biden but I think AZ Republicans have a history of mailing in ballots so it will be close.

On the Georgia race mentioned above, there will be a run off vote since no one got 50%. Running a second candidate won't hurt them since they will now have a 1 vs 1.

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Seems in Georgia special senate election republicans split their own vote by running 2 candidates

Al Gore's running mate's son (Lieberman) was running for the Democrats in that as well but last I saw he was polling in low single digits and facing calls to drop out to boost Warnock

Brussels Sprout

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Biden is 64K votes ahead with 86% counted

Most of the votes left to count are in Maricopa County which includes Phoenix

OK thanks. I saw something on the 538 blog about a batch coming in from that county where Trump was ahead by 20% so I guess it's not going to be all Dem majority areas there but hopefully it will overall