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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

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Comments

  • #2282
    This is it
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,121 ✭✭✭This is it


    4k ahead in Michigan according to The Associated Press


  • #2283
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    Biden now leading in Michigan according to google.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=2020+presidential+election+results&rlz=1C1CHBD_enIE859IE859&oq=2020&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j69i59j69i61l3j69i65l3.3764j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8


  • #2284
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,835 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

    Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

    Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

    It really could go either way.


  • #2285
    Headshot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,701 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Biden now ahead in Michigan


  • #2286
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Michigan is blue! Michigan is blue! 1.8% lead


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  • #2287
    shocksy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,610 ✭✭✭shocksy


    Game Shot, Leg, Set and the match. It's officially over.


  • #2288
    This is it
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,121 ✭✭✭This is it


    Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada gives it to Bidan, yeah?


  • #2289
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Wow, this is intense. Come on, Michigan.


  • #2290
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,393 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    Biden currently ahead in states totally 270


  • #2291
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    This is it wrote: »
    Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada gives it to Bidan, yeah?

    That's all he needs.

    Could take Georgia & Philadelphia too.

    I think Biden has trumped this election.


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  • #2292
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    shocksy wrote: »
    Game Shot, Leg, Set and the match. It's officially over.


    Eh, no it's not.


  • #2293
    shocksy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,610 ✭✭✭shocksy


    murpho999 wrote: »
    [/B]

    Eh, no it's not.

    Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.


  • #2294
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,973 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    murpho999 wrote: »
    [/B]

    Eh, no it's not.


    Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative


  • #2295
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,835 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    shocksy wrote: »
    Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're put of touch haha.

    Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

    Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

    In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.


  • #2296
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    shocksy wrote: »
    Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.

    No, I think it's looking good for Biden as things develop but I'm saying that nothing is official yet as you said.


  • #2297
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative

    Yes, I'll go look at what they experts on the betting exchanges were doing at 4am instead.:pac:


  • #2298
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    AdamD wrote: »
    I would have thought a 5 point flip is quite big? Aren't margins of error usually 3 points?

    If your poll is 5 points off its worse than useless

    Even if you have a 3% national margin of error, you essentially have 50 different elections with to potential the swing more wildly. A lot of the state level polls had sample sizes that would leave a 4 and 5% margin of error. There is also a significant issue with polling in general. How do you ensure a representative sample. I think it was Nate Silver on 538 who I saw comment that he attempted through social media to target 10,000 while male voters I believe for a targeted survey. 10,000 people saw the ad, couple of hundred view it, and 6 took the survey. A poll is essentially representative of those who took it and not those you wanted to take it.


  • #2299
    Kiith
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators Posts: 23,414 Mod ✭✭✭✭Kiith


    https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323990204353552391


  • #2300
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,491 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Lead is about 35k in Michigan now.


  • #2301
    Hurrache
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,381 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    devnull wrote: »
    Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

    Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

    In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.

    The fence he put around the White House maybe was just him erecting battlements and it'll be another Waco event.

    I was a resident of the states during the hanging chad election and I thought that was bizarre, but this year takes it to another level.


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  • #2302
    MJohnston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,724 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    devnull wrote: »
    The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

    Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

    Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

    It really could go either way.

    Sounds like *everything* that bookmakers are involved with. They never discovered empirical analysis. Or maybe they did but they have to keep an element of “win-ability” in their odds in order to harvest money from people.


  • #2303
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Washington Post reporter:

    https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320


  • #2304
    murpho999
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,783 ✭✭✭✭murpho999


    devnull wrote: »
    The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

    Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

    Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

    It really could go either way.

    The bookies operate a market and reflect how people are betting.

    They're not making a call on how the votes are going.

    I don't get why people don't understand this.


  • #2305
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,052 ✭✭✭Shelga


    Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?


  • #2306
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    Shelga wrote: »
    Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?

    some have called it already
    hasnt a hope there

    gonna be NV if he's gonna take anywhere, and that's very unlikely


  • #2307
    Ronin247
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭Ronin247


    So.....

    BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

    If Biden takes
    Michigan 16
    North Carolina 15
    For 238 + 31 = 269
    and Trump takes the rest
    Nevada 6
    Georgia 16
    Maine 4
    Pensylvania 20
    Wisconsin 10
    For 213 + 56 = 269

    Do we have a dance off??


  • #2308
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    Biden now 18,000 votes ahead in Michigan according. Doesn't seem to be a way back for Donnie on that one unless there's a stack of red votes in the pile. 6% left to count.


  • #2309
    TomOnBoard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,133 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »
    I swear, if I had considerable will power, I'd love to go back and quote all the nonsense. I think the one I remember most referred to how lovely the tears of Biden supporters are, or how embarrassing this election has been for him and asked why he's not quit already.

    I hope that, assuming Biden gets in, some of this silly rhetoric and unintelligent nonsense gets quietened down and relegated to the bin where it belongs.

    I wouldn't read too much into it. I dropped out of the thread when the pubs closed and the lads with a few jars turned it in After Hours for a bit. Generally, the thread behaved itself without unduly restrictive moderation, and those mods need to be congratulated for not being unduly controlling in the face of much charter- stretching. On the whole, a turbulent night and a few turbulent days ahead. As Joe said, "Keep the Faith".


  • #2310
    Exclamation Marc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,437 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    Ronin247 wrote: »
    So.....

    BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

    If Biden takes
    Michigan 16
    North Carolina 15
    For 238 + 31 = 269
    and Trump takes the rest
    Nevada 6
    Georgia 16
    Maine 4
    Pensylvania 20
    Wisconsin 10
    For 213 + 56 = 269

    Do we have a dance off??

    I wouldn't have Maine for Trump.


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  • #2311
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 55,069 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Ronin247 wrote: »
    So.....

    BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

    If Biden takes
    Michigan 16
    North Carolina 15
    For 238 + 31 = 269
    and Trump takes the rest
    Nevada 6
    Georgia 16
    Maine 4
    Pensylvania 20
    Wisconsin 10
    For 213 + 56 = 269

    Do we have a dance off??

    If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.


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