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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Mr.Nice Guy

Wow, this is intense. Come on, Michigan.

Mellor

Biden currently ahead in states totally 270

murpho999

This is it wrote: »

Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada gives it to Bidan, yeah?

That's all he needs.

Could take Georgia & Philadelphia too.

I think Biden has trumped this election.

murpho999

shocksy wrote: »

Game Shot, Leg, Set and the match. It's officially over.

Eh, no it's not.

shocksy

murpho999 wrote: »

[/B]

Eh, no it's not.

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.

VinLieger

murpho999 wrote: »

[/B]

Eh, no it's not.

Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative

devnull

shocksy wrote: »

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're put of touch haha.

Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.

murpho999

shocksy wrote: »

Yes it is. If you think Trump can still win this you're very much out of touch haha.

No, I think it's looking good for Biden as things develop but I'm saying that nothing is official yet as you said.

murpho999

VinLieger wrote: »

Just ignore anyone from either side trying to push the "its over" narrative

Yes, I'll go look at what they experts on the betting exchanges were doing at 4am instead.:pac:

[Deleted User]

AdamD wrote: »

I would have thought a 5 point flip is quite big? Aren't margins of error usually 3 points?

If your poll is 5 points off its worse than useless

Even if you have a 3% national margin of error, you essentially have 50 different elections with to potential the swing more wildly. A lot of the state level polls had sample sizes that would leave a 4 and 5% margin of error. There is also a significant issue with polling in general. How do you ensure a representative sample. I think it was Nate Silver on 538 who I saw comment that he attempted through social media to target 10,000 while male voters I believe for a targeted survey. 10,000 people saw the ad, couple of hundred view it, and 6 took the survey. A poll is essentially representative of those who took it and not those you wanted to take it.

Kiith

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323990204353552391

prawnsambo

Lead is about 35k in Michigan now.

Hurrache

devnull wrote: »

Trump has already won in his own mind, no matter what the figures say.

Could turn quite ugly afterwards if he really throws his toys out of the pram if he loses.

In my mind though it's too close to call. Nobody should get head fo themselves.

The fence he put around the White House maybe was just him erecting battlements and it'll be another Waco event.

I was a resident of the states during the hanging chad election and I thought that was bizarre, but this year takes it to another level.

MJohnston

devnull wrote: »

The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

It really could go either way.

Sounds like *everything* that bookmakers are involved with. They never discovered empirical analysis. Or maybe they did but they have to keep an element of “win-ability” in their odds in order to harvest money from people.

Mr.Nice Guy

Washington Post reporter:

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

murpho999

devnull wrote: »

The bookies have no idea how this is going. It's flif flopped a few times now.

Up until last night they were pretty sure Biden would win, but then as the data started coming up they started leaning towards Trump and this morning they seemed fairly sure hed win it.

Then slowly it started to drift the other way slowly to the point where Biden was 1/4 on and Trump was 3/1. In the last half an hour or so we're seeing Trumps odds starting to shorten and Biden's slowly increase again.

It really could go either way.

The bookies operate a market and reflect how people are betting.

They're not making a call on how the votes are going.

I don't get why people don't understand this.

Shelga

Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?

bennyl10

Shelga wrote: »

Is there any chance Trump could still win Arizona? Only 84% of votes counted?

some have called it already
hasnt a hope there

gonna be NV if he's gonna take anywhere, and that's very unlikely

Ronin247

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

seamus

Biden now 18,000 votes ahead in Michigan according. Doesn't seem to be a way back for Donnie on that one unless there's a stack of red votes in the pile. 6% left to count.

TomOnBoard

Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »

I swear, if I had considerable will power, I'd love to go back and quote all the nonsense. I think the one I remember most referred to how lovely the tears of Biden supporters are, or how embarrassing this election has been for him and asked why he's not quit already.

I hope that, assuming Biden gets in, some of this silly rhetoric and unintelligent nonsense gets quietened down and relegated to the bin where it belongs.

I wouldn't read too much into it. I dropped out of the thread when the pubs closed and the lads with a few jars turned it in After Hours for a bit. Generally, the thread behaved itself without unduly restrictive moderation, and those mods need to be congratulated for not being unduly controlling in the face of much charter- stretching. On the whole, a turbulent night and a few turbulent days ahead. As Joe said, "Keep the Faith".

The Iron Giant

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

I wouldn't have Maine for Trump.

awec

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

robinph

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

The votes from Maine will be split most likely, so will prevent the potential draw scenario.

bennyl10

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

Maine(most certainly) and NV will go Biden is the one issue with that

Kiith

Fox on now about constitutional breaches on the Democrats side.

Of course there is :rolleyes:

Movementarian

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

Biden has at least 3 of Maines 4 in the bag already.

Hurrache

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You should look back at this thread around around 3:30 last night, the amount of Pro Trump "gamblers" coming out of the woodwork was a bit insane. It was hard to actually keep up with actual thread subject

The thread in Current Affairs was much worse, it was like a Paddy Power forum between all the odds and gambling talk (one guy who bet >€100 on Biden said he'd be happy to lose his bet just to see the liberals getting upset) and just outright trolling (which is still going on).

The Iron Giant

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You should look back at this thread around around 3:30 last night, the amount of Pro Trump "gamblers" coming out of the woodwork was a bit insane. It was hard to actually keep up with actual thread subject

It was actually depressing to have to wade through such horsesh*t.

"Trump is now 1/4, the bookies know more than anyone, its over lads" etc.

JazzyJ

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

The house elects the President (with 1 vote per state delegation rather than per representative - so not as simple as a straight majority of representives), the senate elects the Vice President.