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Winter 2020-2021 - The search for the first Snowfall

  • 31-10-2020 6:09pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭


    Some model output is showing that a colder phase of weather could develop from the middle of November with the AO flipping sharply negative and a NAO- developing.

    Hopefully this thread will be able to bring us from today through.

    Some models look similar to the evolution in 2010!

    As ever models will chop and change at this forecast distance- but maybe we can hold a watch to keep us interested!

    gfs-0-372.png?12


    :pac::pac::pac:

    MOD NOTE: Changed the title of the Thread as mid-November is here and the search for the first snow continues!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Can't go anywhere anyway

    Bring it on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Ha what a year for it! The one winter we are supposed to be getting outdoors as much as possible :pac:


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Stheno wrote: »
    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?

    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    I think you are right. We got a prolonged cold spell. We had a heavy snowfall around about the end of November and as far as I can remember it cleared away quick-ish enough. We got another snowfall a few weeks after that and it was very cold and icy for weeks afterwards. It took forever to thaw out.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,688 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

    That's the one I was thinking of


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,172 ✭✭✭screamer


    I won’t hold my breath for this....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I think there are tentative signs of a change to drier and colder weather within the 7 - 10 day range OP, probably a slack northerly of some sort. Whether things progress from there to something more exciting remains to be seen.

    It's a long way out but will be keeping an eye :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

    ENwVk2bWoAEg37a?format=jpg


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    How likely is this to develop into a sharp cold spell?

    Would it be maddess to order a pair of them walking sticks with grips? I remember 2010 and it was a headache.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,127 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.

    You're right. Beast from the east was cold but it was over quickly. 2010 was an absolute pain in the fcuking hole.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 215 ✭✭older i get better i was


    We went out and bought every ounce of salt in the world market but don't you know most of that has decayed away by now... On a brighter note your man's headache has just cleared up...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Really, OP is grasping at the outer edges of weather forecasting. It'll probably look quite different in three updates!


  • Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    We are certainly overdue a lengthy cold spell and 2020 has been full of surprises. What are the odds we'll come out of lockdown and the weather gods will dump 6 feet of snow on us!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 613 ✭✭✭Snowc


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.

    We already got a beast from the east this year and it's still causing problems...


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    2010 down here in Cork City wasn't very snowy, made a small snowman but nothing like 2018 but was the first year our water froze and it was bitterly cold, always remember the de-icer refreezing on the trip to school! I was only 10 at the time though.. so maybe don't remember fully but definitely wasn't very snowy

    I would also prefer a 2018 repeat over the 2010!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭s1ippy


    We went out and bought every ounce of salt in the world market but don't you know most of that has decayed away by now... On a brighter note your man's headache has just cleared up...
    What! Salt preserves things, how has it decayed!? You'd surely have to store it underwater!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,230 ✭✭✭TheRiverman


    Stheno wrote: »
    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?

    No,it was frost that lasted for weeks, temperatures went down to - 15 at night and reached the dizzy heights of - 7 during the day. It ended with a big thaw on St.Stephen's Day.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3vVDUuC0yw

    November-December 2010 was the harshest spell of winter weather I ever witnessed. In my lowland part of Laois, the snow stayed on the ground for all but seven consecutive days in the spell. (there was snow cover in the shade in all but three of those seven days)

    It kicked off on November 26th with snowfall and the last four days recorded snow lying on the ground. On the 29th an overnight low of -8.7c was recorded and a grass minimum of -13c (-12c the night before). November that year had 22 grass frosts, 10 air frosts and two ice days (below 0c maxes)

    In December there were 9 ice days. The coldest morning at 9am was Christmas Eve at -13.6c, Christmas Day only slightly milder at -12.1c at 9am. The coldest temperature of the month was -14.0c. There were 24 air frosts in December as was also 24 grass frosts, of which -16.5c was the coldest - a record still to this day.

    I remember the St. Stephen's Day morning when temperatures reached a balmy +3.1c in light winds, it felt incredibly mild!

    Even though it got milder for the post-Christmas week, temperatures struggled to get much above 8c or 9c. Even the first week of January temperatures remained between 3c and 7c maxes, it wasn't until post-January 10th that temperatures got above 10c. Indeed there was snowfall again on January 7th.

    That mild spell lasted only a week and the second half of January 2011 was cold and foggy. February 2011 was a mild enough month apart from a cool second week with some notable grass frosts.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Very unlikely this will happen as November to me looks fairly benign with rainfall fairly low and temperatures about Normal


  • Registered Users Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Mullaghteelin


    Far too deep into FI to pay any attention to that.
    Plus, its too early in the season. In November 2010 it took 2 weeks of North East winds before the real cold reached us at the end of the month. The northern hemisphere needs to cool first and build snow cover.

    More tropical systems are possible which can completely change the long term forecast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    Far too deep into FI to pay any attention to that.
    Plus, its too early in the season. In November 2010 it took 2 weeks of North East winds before the real cold reached us at the end of the month. The northern hemisphere needs to cool first and build snow cover.

    More tropical systems are possible which can completely change the long term forecast.

    Incorrect!

    My station recorded the following dominant wind directions in the period November 10th to 24th:
    10th - S
    11th - W
    12th - WSW
    13th - WSW
    14th - SSE
    15th - SE
    16th - SSE
    17th - SSE
    18th - SW
    19th - SE
    20th - NE
    21st - N
    22nd - W
    23rd - W
    24th - W


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 902 ✭✭✭Cows Go µ


    I was working in retail in 2010 and I remember is because it was a shop in Cork city and a lot of the employees lived in Cork and walked in and there were loads of people falling on ice. One poor girl feel twice, hurt both wrists and couldn't carry any stock, had to be on the customer queries desk the whole time (the one where they would give you no info and just expect you to be psychic so it was a nightmare). Was a bloody cold winter. A bit of snow but mostly very cold

    Also with working from home, I'd prefer a bit of snow then lots of warm weather! The heating has been expensive enough as it is


  • Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    Hasnt a negative NAO like projected shown up in FI at this time of year for the last 4 years on the trot. Never even close to materialising. Hopefully this year is different


  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭rooney30


    This would be glorious if it comes to pass . Anything to break the drudgery of lockdown November


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Reversal wrote: »
    Hasnt a negative NAO like projected shown up in FI at this time of year for the last 4 years on the trot. Never even close to materialising. Hopefully this year is different

    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.


  • Registered Users Posts: 387 ✭✭rooney30


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.

    And there the dream dies


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,587 ✭✭✭Working class heroes


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.

    Boooooooooo!!!!

    Racism is now hiding behind the cloak of Community activism.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    we will get snow in December. Winter 2000 was snowy, winter 2010 was really snowy and 2020 will deliver. Also level 5 restrictions will lift in early December and you just know the moment lockdown is lifted and we can all get out and about again, the snow will arrive. There is something about 2020 even from a weather perspective, warmest and driest spring i can remember, followed by a wet summer when lockdown lifted. Since Summer ended, September and October were very pleasant. I have a feeling we will get some good snow in December.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Looking at what's expected from a vague aspect for November

    Wet til Wednesday
    Dry and cool till about 7th
    Mild with a little rain until about 15th
    Slightly cooler and more unsettled until 25th
    Then FI has very cold

    But FI will probably be FI


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,354 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    pauldry wrote: »
    Thank God. It's only 6c and lashing rain today. Could do with some milder weather

    I disagree, mild equates with wet this time of year, the land could do with some time to dry out, especially the western half of the island.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS is not without interest again, but there is not much support for it. It's more likely in that Set up we'd end up with stalled systems over us, than the block far enough west to bring in our friend from the east.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    Ah the GFS cold Bias rears again

    https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/#:~:text=This%20%E2%80%9Ccold%20bias%E2%80%9D%20means%20that,British%20and%20European%20weather%20agencies.&text=The%20existing%20NWS%20forecast%20model,accuracy%20to%20the%20European%20models.
    THE GOVERNMENT’S NEW weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies.

    For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Gonzo wrote: »
    November is now looking increasingly mild, the idea of northern blocking that was being hinted at a few days ago has reduced alot and mild southerlies or south-westerlies could impact us for much of November.

    I don't think we will have any extended period of warmth, probably some WAA southerlies briefly but I think a more settled easterly quadrant flow will establish by around mid month, the models are today leaning back towards a colder solution in the extended range... but who knows, might be back to a euro high tomorrow, such is the nature of FI.

    A sceuro high as an in between solution is definitely a possibility, Greeny heights seem to have disappeared for now but Scandi/Svalbard heights look a distinct possibility looking at the GFS/UKMO/ECM.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    2010 down here in Cork City wasn't very snowy, made a small snowman but nothing like 2018 but was the first year our water froze and it was bitterly cold, always remember the de-icer refreezing on the trip to school! I was only 10 at the time though.. so maybe don't remember fully but definitely wasn't very snowy

    I would also prefer a 2018 repeat over the 2010!

    Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

    We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Both 2010 and 2018 were phenomenal snow events in Dublin. November and December 2010 was remarkable in that it was such sustained cold for nearly 6 weeks. I measured nearly 40cm in the garden on Christmas Day. I think the max temp on Christmas Day afternoon was around -4.

    2018 was huge volumes of snow over a shorter period of time but the cold wasn’t as sustained and temps didn’t go as low.

    Both hugely memorable though
    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Yeah, I remember. Weeks of cold, frozen pipes, icy roads, wistfully looking at the rest of Ireland in snowscapes, and Cork snow shield holding stubbornly.

    We eventually got some snow after xmas, but it wasn't the snow fest 2018 brought us, just a light covering.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,718 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    I presume this thread is dead in the water


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I presume this thread is dead in the water

    Indeed, not a chance in foreseeable future. Looks all bog standard November stuff.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I presume this thread is dead in the water

    9 out of 10 years it is. Give or take.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

    Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    A lot of forecasting (long range) are showing milder than normal right up to the end of December. I know its not worth a fig but nobody would be shocked if it occurs.

    Maybe the best chance of colder weather is 2021 later in the Winter.

    knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gonzo wrote: »
    knowing our luck maybe teh 3rd or 4th week of March 2021. Overall yes looks particularly mild on the extended range right up to the end of December. November is a complete write off for anyone who wants a cold end to Autumn. Of course a lot can change between now and Christmas but usually for us it doesn't.
    I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I'm getting to a stage now where cold for the sake of being cold doesn't excite me as it might have done when younger. If it is to be cold, then let it be a cold worth getting thrilled about, like -10c or below, with 10 foot of snow. Otherwise, the usual, just below average, but deeply unpleasant and penetrating wet chill that we get 50% of the time during the winter and early spring months get feck right off.

    Yes, sleet and cold rain does not cut the mustard for me either. Something like December 2000 during Christmas week would do nicely. We are well overdue something like this during the winter months.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Could revive as "chance of colder weather from mid-February?"

    Ah now MT i got all excited when I saw you were the most recent update, thinking oooh maybe?

    Nope. Situation normal. Sigh.
    Feb it is.


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