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Winter 2020-2021 - The search for the first Snowfall

  • 31-10-2020 6:09pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Some model output is showing that a colder phase of weather could develop from the middle of November with the AO flipping sharply negative and a NAO- developing.

    Hopefully this thread will be able to bring us from today through.

    Some models look similar to the evolution in 2010!

    As ever models will chop and change at this forecast distance- but maybe we can hold a watch to keep us interested!

    gfs-0-372.png?12


    :pac::pac::pac:

    MOD NOTE: Changed the title of the Thread as mid-November is here and the search for the first snow continues!


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 41,467 ✭✭✭✭ SEPT 23 1989


    Can't go anywhere anyway

    Bring it on


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭ bb1234567


    Ha what a year for it! The one winter we are supposed to be getting outdoors as much as possible :pac:


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,489 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Stheno


    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,427 ✭✭✭ bb1234567


    Stheno wrote: »
    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?

    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭ owlbethere


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    I think you are right. We got a prolonged cold spell. We had a heavy snowfall around about the end of November and as far as I can remember it cleared away quick-ish enough. We got another snowfall a few weeks after that and it was very cold and icy for weeks afterwards. It took forever to thaw out.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,218 ✭✭✭ Fr_Dougal


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,489 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Stheno


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

    That's the one I was thinking of


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,652 ✭✭✭ screamer


    I won’t hold my breath for this....


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,810 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    I think there are tentative signs of a change to drier and colder weather within the 7 - 10 day range OP, probably a slack northerly of some sort. Whether things progress from there to something more exciting remains to be seen.

    It's a long way out but will be keeping an eye :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭ Renjit


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    2010 was the guy falling on ice one, but very snowy in most parts of the country.

    ENwVk2bWoAEg37a?format=jpg


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭ owlbethere


    How likely is this to develop into a sharp cold spell?

    Would it be maddess to order a pair of them walking sticks with grips? I remember 2010 and it was a headache.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,999 ✭✭✭✭ odyssey06


    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭ owlbethere


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.

    You're right. Beast from the east was cold but it was over quickly. 2010 was an absolute pain in the fcuking hole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭ older i get better i was


    We went out and bought every ounce of salt in the world market but don't you know most of that has decayed away by now... On a brighter note your man's headache has just cleared up...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Really, OP is grasping at the outer edges of weather forecasting. It'll probably look quite different in three updates!


  • Registered Users Posts: 153 ✭✭ CirrusBusiness


    We are certainly overdue a lengthy cold spell and 2020 has been full of surprises. What are the odds we'll come out of lockdown and the weather gods will dump 6 feet of snow on us!


  • Registered Users Posts: 612 ✭✭✭ Snowc


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    I'd prefer another Beast from the East.

    From 2010 I remember the long lingering ice which was an absolute pain to be getting around in and the gov doing next to nothing to clear even in Dublin city centre.

    We already got a beast from the east this year and it's still causing problems...


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    2010 down here in Cork City wasn't very snowy, made a small snowman but nothing like 2018 but was the first year our water froze and it was bitterly cold, always remember the de-icer refreezing on the trip to school! I was only 10 at the time though.. so maybe don't remember fully but definitely wasn't very snowy

    I would also prefer a 2018 repeat over the 2010!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,980 ✭✭✭ s1ippy


    We went out and bought every ounce of salt in the world market but don't you know most of that has decayed away by now... On a brighter note your man's headache has just cleared up...
    What! Salt preserves things, how has it decayed!? You'd surely have to store it underwater!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,354 ✭✭✭ TheRiverman


    Stheno wrote: »
    Was 2010 the snow that lasted for weeks?

    No,it was frost that lasted for weeks, temperatures went down to - 15 at night and reached the dizzy heights of - 7 during the day. It ended with a big thaw on St.Stephen's Day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,402 ✭✭✭ Danno


    bb1234567 wrote: »
    I think it was a really cold rather than snowy one, snowed a bit early on and was just frozen for weeks after with unbelievably cold days. Rather than the really stormy snowy one the year after, could be wrong though

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3vVDUuC0yw

    November-December 2010 was the harshest spell of winter weather I ever witnessed. In my lowland part of Laois, the snow stayed on the ground for all but seven consecutive days in the spell. (there was snow cover in the shade in all but three of those seven days)

    It kicked off on November 26th with snowfall and the last four days recorded snow lying on the ground. On the 29th an overnight low of -8.7c was recorded and a grass minimum of -13c (-12c the night before). November that year had 22 grass frosts, 10 air frosts and two ice days (below 0c maxes)

    In December there were 9 ice days. The coldest morning at 9am was Christmas Eve at -13.6c, Christmas Day only slightly milder at -12.1c at 9am. The coldest temperature of the month was -14.0c. There were 24 air frosts in December as was also 24 grass frosts, of which -16.5c was the coldest - a record still to this day.

    I remember the St. Stephen's Day morning when temperatures reached a balmy +3.1c in light winds, it felt incredibly mild!

    Even though it got milder for the post-Christmas week, temperatures struggled to get much above 8c or 9c. Even the first week of January temperatures remained between 3c and 7c maxes, it wasn't until post-January 10th that temperatures got above 10c. Indeed there was snowfall again on January 7th.

    That mild spell lasted only a week and the second half of January 2011 was cold and foggy. February 2011 was a mild enough month apart from a cool second week with some notable grass frosts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Very unlikely this will happen as November to me looks fairly benign with rainfall fairly low and temperatures about Normal


  • Registered Users Posts: 489 ✭✭ Mullaghteelin


    Far too deep into FI to pay any attention to that.
    Plus, its too early in the season. In November 2010 it took 2 weeks of North East winds before the real cold reached us at the end of the month. The northern hemisphere needs to cool first and build snow cover.

    More tropical systems are possible which can completely change the long term forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,402 ✭✭✭ Danno


    Far too deep into FI to pay any attention to that.
    Plus, its too early in the season. In November 2010 it took 2 weeks of North East winds before the real cold reached us at the end of the month. The northern hemisphere needs to cool first and build snow cover.

    More tropical systems are possible which can completely change the long term forecast.

    Incorrect!

    My station recorded the following dominant wind directions in the period November 10th to 24th:
    10th - S
    11th - W
    12th - WSW
    13th - WSW
    14th - SSE
    15th - SE
    16th - SSE
    17th - SSE
    18th - SW
    19th - SE
    20th - NE
    21st - N
    22nd - W
    23rd - W
    24th - W


  • Registered Users Posts: 902 ✭✭✭ Cows Go µ


    I was working in retail in 2010 and I remember is because it was a shop in Cork city and a lot of the employees lived in Cork and walked in and there were loads of people falling on ice. One poor girl feel twice, hurt both wrists and couldn't carry any stock, had to be on the customer queries desk the whole time (the one where they would give you no info and just expect you to be psychic so it was a nightmare). Was a bloody cold winter. A bit of snow but mostly very cold

    Also with working from home, I'd prefer a bit of snow then lots of warm weather! The heating has been expensive enough as it is


  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭ Reversal


    Hasnt a negative NAO like projected shown up in FI at this time of year for the last 4 years on the trot. Never even close to materialising. Hopefully this year is different


  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭ rooney30


    This would be glorious if it comes to pass . Anything to break the drudgery of lockdown November


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,556 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Reversal wrote: »
    Hasnt a negative NAO like projected shown up in FI at this time of year for the last 4 years on the trot. Never even close to materialising. Hopefully this year is different

    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 365 ✭✭ rooney30


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.

    And there the dream dies


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,075 ✭✭✭ Working class heroes


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    We did have some notable blocking in late Nov 2017 and mid-Nov 2018. Issues were Nov 2017 was a dry northerly for Ireland and the air wasn't that cold.

    The continent was too mild in Nov 2018 to produce anything notably cold or any snow but the cooler air from the east did produce heavy rain in southern and eastern counties as it contrasted with the mild Irish Sea. A Scandi High (not a -NAO though) did reappear in mid-December but continent not that cold again and Ireland on the periphery too.

    Nothing unusual to be seeing cold and settled weather in November during a La Niña year. That GFS 12z operational run was the holy grail pretty much and its verification would be extremely low regardless of the timeframe it was projected at in FI because it is such an unusual pattern. As to be expected, the latest 06z is gone completely the other way with a mild southerly. It's called Fantasy Island for a reason.. though I would not be one bit surprised if we did see another mild southerly at some point.

    At this moment in time, I doubt there will be any snow conducive synoptics and cold from mid-November and the most we will have is cold and settled with frost overnight whilst sunny or foggy by day akin to late November 2016 due to high pressure over or close by.

    Boooooooooo!!!!

    A man who knows he knows nothing knows more than a man who thinks he knows everything.



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