US Presidential Election 2020

What worries me about the polls is the 'shy Tory' factor.

Four years ago Clinton was seen as unlikeable and Trump was able to ride the 'I'm not a politician' shtick to great effect. Someone voting Trump back then wouldn't have had any qualms about revealing that he had their vote. This time, however, Biden isn't seen as unlikeable as her, while Trump has become taboo with the statements he's made. Most of his base aren't shy about supporting him with the MAGA hats and whatnot, but I worry that there is still a significant chunk of voters who are more tight-lipped about their intentions. A part of the electorate who are telling pollsters, friends, co-workers and so on that they won't be voting for Trump who will, on voting day, go ahead and do precisely that.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

What worries me about the polls is the 'shy Tory' factor.

Four years ago Clinton was seen as unlikeable and Trump was able to ride the 'I'm not a politician' shtick to great effect. Someone voting Trump back then wouldn't have had any qualms about revealing that he had their vote. This time, however, Biden isn't seen as unlikeable as her, while Trump has become taboo with the statements he's made. Most of his base aren't shy about supporting him with the MAGA hats and whatnot, but I worry that there is still a significant chunk of voters who are more tight-lipped about their intentions. A part of the electorate who are telling pollsters, friends, co-workers and so on that they won't be voting for Trump who will, on voting day, go ahead and do precisely that.

What is interesting is that this phenomenon gets mentioned every election and I have yet to see it happen. People predicted in 2016, minor but important error. People predicted the opposite on here expecting exit polls to over predict Sinn Féin's result. Nope.

Trust the polls but be aware of the effect of margin of error.

marno21 wrote: »

Dems now looking at getting 48-57 seats in the Senate. Obviously the 57 is highly unlikely but imo there are 11 Republican seats they have at least a chance with. (CO/AZ are pretty likely D now, ME/NC are Lean D, and GA/GA/IA/KS/SC/MT/AK are either tossup or Lean R, and the momentum at the minute seems to be with the Dems). Alabama is a lost cause for Doug Jones so the Dems are starting out with 46. Michigan and Minnesota are also fairly safe.

I'd love to see how Beto would have got on in Texas had he ran. He lost to Cruz by 2 points in a state that's trending bluer since and with the Dems doing better in general this time around. He's apparently been doing great work on the ground in order to help drive the Dem vote in Texas.

The amount of money they wasted in Kentucky could've helped push more of those Tossups to Lean D. Pity about Jones losing his seat as his opponent is clueless

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

What worries me about the polls is the 'shy Tory' factor.

Four years ago Clinton was seen as unlikeable and Trump was able to ride the 'I'm not a politician' shtick to great effect. Someone voting Trump back then wouldn't have had any qualms about revealing that he had their vote. This time, however, Biden isn't seen as unlikeable as her, while Trump has become taboo with the statements he's made. Most of his base aren't shy about supporting him with the MAGA hats and whatnot, but I worry that there is still a significant chunk of voters who are more tight-lipped about their intentions. A part of the electorate who are telling pollsters, friends, co-workers and so on that they won't be voting for Trump who will, on voting day, go ahead and do precisely that.

But why?

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yep the message of get the **** out and vote, alongside pushing that's it not won until it's won needs to keep going until polls close. Even suspect Michael Moore being entirely negative probably motivates some people to go out and vote.

In the light of the legal manoeuverings in mixed control States (Dem Governor/Rep Assembly) such as PA, the window for SAFE mail-in voting has now closed. The focus must now be solely to get remaining voters to get out and vote on Tuesday, or in person where the 'early' voting option still exists.

This is stunning!

The total 2016 vote has already been surpassed in TX...

WOW!

https://twitter.com/briantylercohen/status/1322238082804969472?s=09

Overheal wrote: »

Trump is eh, ambitious?

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557?s=20

He's going to be a haggard mess on election night.

As opposed to?

I mean, look at the map against that itinerary

IDC if you have your own jet, that's nuts. But I imagine it will be not much more than tarmac appearances.

MJohnston wrote: »

Nate Silver just tweeted on essentially this phenomenon:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322188099703758850

The only thing you can realistically infer from early voting is turnout.

My worry about all of these Republican voters shifting to Biden is that they'll revert to voting Republicans Reps and Senators, and Mitch McConnell gets to reprise his "Dr No" role from 2010-16.

this "state picker" on fivethirtyeight is really great. play around with it and see the various routes to winning. helpfully tells you what way they are leaning to make it easier.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

By what exactly? I see nothing to suggest the reporter is being dishonest.


https://twitter.com/jakejakeny/status/1322208696311652356

"no human being could be that perfect"

ROFL okay:





"Looks like it was really done by a machine, absolutely"

<--- "NO HUMAN BEING COULD BE THIS PERFECT"



Is this the legally blind guy with Hunter's laptop?

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Not sure what you're rolling on the floor laughing about.

You think this guy has been had, and it's all a ruse?

Grand, not sure what's so funny about that though.

I think you've been had to pass this clear garbage along.

These markings are clearly done by hand, each mark is different from one another. The ballot has been physically tampered with and now, reportedly, in the hands of multiple individuals with opportunity and motive to tamper with it. I would not trust some rando with an agenda on twitter that these aren't just pen marks, when we can see for ourselves from his own footage that it's not machine markup.