US Presidential Election 2020

Foxtrol · 28-10-2020 5:36pm

MattS1 wrote: »

How accurate was this in 2016?

For projections like 'likelihood to win %', there isn't really an accuracy issue that you can look in the past and call out unless they've said someone is 100% going to win and didn't.

Like a team being behind and pulling off a late comeback, it doesn't change that they were unlikely to win at a point in time.

Larbre34 · 28-10-2020 5:37pm

Just over 31% of the 240 million or so eligible voters in the United States, have *already* voted. Eligible being a far higher figure than registered.

Incredible.

Quin_Dub · 28-10-2020 5:44pm

MattS1 wrote: »

How accurate was this in 2016?

Will we likely have a winner by Wed morning or is it possible we have to wait for all postal votes to come in?

Definitely won't have a confirmed winner on the night or even the next day.

But depending on how a few States go you may have a very strong indication of the final result.

If a few of the traditionally early to report States like Arizona or Ohio go for Biden that will be an extremely strong indicator that he's going to take the whole lot (not 100% ,but extremely likely).

If they go for Trump , it's a less definitive indicator , but at the very least , them going to Trump will say that it's probably going to be incredibly close.

Florida won't be done on the night , but quite a few of their counties will have reported as they can start processing mail-in ballots before election day, so we may have some indicators early in Wednesday.

Dillonb3 · 28-10-2020 6:04pm

Lot of pressure on Lieberman to drop out of this race now. No Idea why he's keeps hanging on.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1321082775110254592

TomOnBoard · 28-10-2020 6:05pm

DK224 wrote: »

So now it's official Tom has backed Trump for President!!

I'll never live that down!!!

The thing is, I don't mind admitting that, during the 2016 primaries, I would have had a lot of time for the Trump train... For shame, as my Granny used to say!!!

Itssoeasy · 28-10-2020 6:12pm

I see that people who went to a trump rally in Omaha were left stranded after trump left and either the transport that was organised didn’t arrive or more likely is the trump campaign didn’t bother to sort it out. It seems it was freezing last night and several attendees had to be treated for hyperthermia. And yet these people will still support the guy.

TomOnBoard · 28-10-2020 6:13pm

Dillonb3 wrote: »

Lot of pressure on Lieberman to drop out of this race now. No Idea why he's keeps hanging on.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1321082775110254592

I saw that! However, Lieberman is barely a Dem, a bit like his father who was an 'ornery Dem for years. So, I reckon that Lieberman's vote would be capturing votes that might otherwise go to a Republican. And if he drops out, relatively few might end up with Biden. Just a thought!

Zubeneschamali · 28-10-2020 6:15pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

and either the transport that was organised didn’t arrive or more likely is the trump campaign didn’t bother to sort it out.

The report I saw said the campaign booked buses but their credit cards were rejected.

Overheal · 28-10-2020 6:51pm

All the Democrat yard signs in my area have been stolen overnight. Yesterday when I went to vote, there they all were, go out today for other business, all of them gone.

everlast75 · 28-10-2020 6:54pm

https://twitter.com/robsfriedlander/status/1321509344727437313?s=20

Can't get enough of Obama spanking Trump like Stormy with a rolled up Time magazine. It is good for the soul.

Deshawn · 28-10-2020 6:55pm

Overheal wrote: »

All the Democrat yard signs in my area have been stolen overnight. Yesterday when I went to vote, there they all were, go out today for other business, all of them gone.

Good to hear. People have been destroying and vandalising Trump signs since 2016.

I saw a video of some chap who electrified his sign and another where the lady left piles of cat poop around hers to deter criminals and vandals.

28-10-2020 7:21pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Definitely won't have a confirmed winner on the night or even the next day.

But depending on how a few States go you may have a very strong indication of the final result.

If a few of the traditionally early to report States like Arizona or Ohio go for Biden that will be an extremely strong indicator that he's going to take the whole lot (not 100% ,but extremely likely).

If they go for Trump , it's a less definitive indicator , but at the very least , them going to Trump will say that it's probably going to be incredibly close.

Florida won't be done on the night , but quite a few of their counties will have reported as they can start processing mail-in ballots before election day, so we may have some indicators early in Wednesday.

This narrative is being pushed hard when it really shouldn't be. If it's close then yeah, it could take some time. If Biden is 20 points up and Trump needs 80% of late votes to break for him then the media should do as they always have in such cases and call the state.

The press need to have some balls on election night. Obviously in a state where it's close and postal ballots won't be counted until late then be circumspect. Where it's obvious who has won, bloody call it. If the polls are accurate there are enough states and electoral votes that the entire race could be called for Biden on the night.

BonnieSituation · 28-10-2020 7:27pm

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

538 currently have that as a 4% probability so yeah that's a great price.

I was also surprised to see that New York was 1.04 the other day on Betfair Exchange to be won by the Democrats. In investment terms you'd be getting 4% with absolutely zero risk.

I think it's a cert that Biden wins the popular vote.

The EC on the otherhand...

ancapailldorcha · 28-10-2020 7:39pm

Mod: Take the betting talk elsewhere please.

Tell me how · 28-10-2020 7:57pm

Said it before, we grew up listening to news broadcasts describing how the US and UN were sending observers to central African countries to ensure elections were fair and accessible.
America, 2020. It's over a minute, but worth watching.

https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/status/1320033601224933381

Saw a very pertinent comment elsewhere on Twitter which said, 'Vote for the people who want you to be able to vote'.

Shocking stuff in a country where so many scream about the need for a well regulated militia to prevent a tyrannical government when you see images like this and hear about single ballot drop off boxes in counties in Texas which are bigger than Delaware.

JJayoo · 28-10-2020 8:04pm

I hope Biden wins, can't stick 4 more years of people complaining about Trump, so fcuking annoying

Foxtrol · 28-10-2020 8:06pm

Tell me how wrote: »

Said it before, we grew up listening to news broadcasts describing how the US and UN were sending observers to central African countries to ensure elections were fair and accessible.
America, 2020. It's over a minute, but worth watching.

https://twitter.com/justinhendrix/status/1320033601224933381

Saw a very pertinent comment elsewhere on Twitter which said, 'Vote for the people who want you to be able to vote'.

Shocking stuff in a country where so many scream about the need for a well regulated militia to prevent a tyrannical government when you see images like this and hear about single ballot drop off boxes in counties in Texas which are bigger than Delaware.

Many places are a mess in the US for voting, especially early voting. I live in a very blue city and when I went by there yesterday it was a 3 hour wait for early in person voting, winding around several blocks. At this point early in person voting has become potentially more dangerous than it will be on the day of the election, as there are less sites so likely longer lines.

There is a split between lines caused by incompetence and obvious attempts at disenfranchising voters by the GOP.

8mv · 28-10-2020 10:35pm

everlast75 wrote: »

Can't get enough of Obama spanking Trump like Stormy with a rolled up Time magazine. It is good for the soul.

Damn, Everlast - I'd just taken a large mouthful of coffee before reading that. Now it's cleanup time.

Water John · 28-10-2020 11:38pm

538 showing the chances of the Dems taking the Senate almost as high as Biden's chance. Running between 74/77 in 100.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senate-races-where-democrats-have-an-edge-in-the-polls/
BTW Tump is now at 11 in 100 and Biden up to 88 in 100.

briany · 28-10-2020 11:42pm

Prominent American pollster Frank Luntz has been on Larry King's show saying that if the polls are wrong on this election, then the polling business is 'done'. Seems hyperbolic to me if he means that in a total way - the polling wasn't exactly wrong the last time around, but the analysis was off the mark. Generally public sentiment didn't seem to be correctly gauged. If you go back to the 2012 election, that thing was pretty close in most nationwide polls, and Hillary's apparent lead in the polls over Trump was never really less than Obama's over Romney, so this is probably where a big error laid.

But Luntz could be right in the sense that a certain group of people would never listen to polls again if Trump does win and go further down the rabbithole of not trusting expert opinion on anything.

BonnieSituation · 28-10-2020 11:56pm

briany wrote: »

Prominent American pollster Frank Luntz has been on Larry King's show saying that if the polls are wrong on this election, then the polling business is 'done'. Seems hyperbolic to me if he means that in a total way - the polling wasn't exactly wrong the last time around, but the analysis was off the mark. Generally public sentiment didn't seem to be correctly gauged. If you go back to the 2012 election, that thing was pretty close in most nationwide polls, and Hillary's apparent lead in the polls over Trump was never really less than Obama's over Romney, so this is probably where a big error laid.

But Luntz could be right in the sense that a certain group of people would never listen to polls again if Trump does win and go further down the rabbithole of not trusting expert opinion on anything.

When you see the repetitive refrains of "what happened with the Polls in 2016" whenever Biden's lead is highlighted on here, you can see the issue with polls and people who don't quite understand them.

That group of people are lost causes anyway, I wouldn't be paying too much attention to them.

looksee · 29-10-2020 12:01am

Amy Coney Barratt has recused herself from the Pennsylvania vote on the grounds that she has not had time to read up the arguments. The Supreme Court has declined to revisit as a fast-track the lower court's decision to allow 3 days after polling day to count votes. Is there hope, or should one be cynical?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-won-t-immediately-consider-whether-pa-can-count-n1245175

Tell me how · 29-10-2020 12:01am

briany wrote: »

Prominent American pollster Frank Luntz has been on Larry King's show saying that if the polls are wrong on this election, then the polling business is 'done'. Seems hyperbolic to me if he means that in a total way - the polling wasn't exactly wrong the last time around, but the analysis was off the mark. Generally public sentiment didn't seem to be correctly gauged. If you go back to the 2012 election, that thing was pretty close in most nationwide polls, and Hillary's apparent lead in the polls over Trump was never really less than Obama's over Romney, so this is probably where a big error laid.

But Luntz could be right in the sense that a certain group of people would never listen to polls again if Trump does win and go further down the rabbithole of not trusting expert opinion on anything.

Also encouraging devious participants to focus more on opinion manipulation or outright vote fraud on the basis that they only have to get their result over the line and it weakens the arguments against it if there is not a demonstrative trend of how people felt in advance.

TomOnBoard · 29-10-2020 12:10am

looksee wrote: »

Amy Coney Barratt has recused herself from the Pennsylvania vote on the grounds that she has not had time to read up the arguments. The Supreme Court has declined to revisit as a fast-track the lower court's decision to allow 3 days after polling day to count votes. Is there hope, or should one be cynical?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-won-t-immediately-consider-whether-pa-can-count-n1245175

As I read it, they reserved the right to revisit it after the election. So, IF I was a cynic, I might think that they decided not to poke the bear unnecessarily- If PA vote is definitively for Biden, they'll leave it alone, but if its a close call, they'll weigh back in, by which time Barrett WILL have read the papers....

looksee · 29-10-2020 12:36am

TomOnBoard wrote: »

As I read it, they reserved the right to revisit it after the election. So, IF I was a cynic, I might think that they decided not to poke the bear unnecessarily- If PA vote is definitively for Biden, they'll leave it alone, but if its a close call, they'll weigh back in, by which time Barrett WILL have read the papers....

It seems unlikely that they could/would intervene in those circumstances?

Outlaw Pete · 29-10-2020 12:43am

Project Veritas exposing 2020 Election voter fraud:

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1321481854751526915

Mainstream media appear to be ignoring the story, which is odd as they were all over that being a bad thing when they said Trump was encouraging it.

If this report is correct then those involved should do time.

Tell me how · 29-10-2020 12:49am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Mainstream media appear to be ignoring the story, which is odd as they were all over that being a bad thing when they said Trump was encouraging it.

If this report is correct then those involved should do time.

You tried this topic yesterday Pete and it didn't fly then.

Can't see it getting much traction today either.
Everyone has seen Trump, Huckabee, the GOP actually give guidance on how to commit electoral fraud and I suspect it is only so they can scream next week that there is evidence of fraud and to discount swathes of votes.

Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

Timberrrrrrrr · 29-10-2020 12:53am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Project Veritas exposing 2020 Election voter fraud:

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1321481854751526915

Mainstream media appear to be ignoring the story, which is odd as they were all over that being a bad thing when they said Trump was encouraging it.

If this report is correct then those involved should do time.

And there's the problem right there, this isn't the first time we have seen these "expose" type of video's only for them to fall flat on their faces (remember the guy who was filming himself breaking the law lol)

I do agree with you though that if (and that's a big IF) these people are commiting a crime then yes they should face long jail terms.

ExMachina1000 · 29-10-2020 12:53am

Tell me how wrote: »

You tried this topic yesterday Pete and it didn't fly then.

Can't see it getting much traction today either.
Everyone has seen Trump, Huckabee, the GOP actually give guidance on how to commit electoral fraud and I suspect it is only so they can scream next week that there is evidence of fraud and to discount swathes of votes.

Fingers crossed it doesn't happen.

Do you believe that the linked video is real?

Tippex · 29-10-2020 12:57am

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

l]

Mainstream media appear to be ignoring the story, which is odd as they were all over that being a bad thing when they said Trump was encouraging it.

If this report is correct then those involved should do time.

I feel a little bit dirty Pete agreeing with you on this

100% something should be done about it. The crazy thing is that it seems to be both sides are in on this.
I always said politics is a dirty game.

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1321588500471390208

US Presidential Election 2020

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