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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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    #7982
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users Posts: 990 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That's perfectly fine, there don't need to be.

    Exactly, let the most vulnerable have it first. I’d say citizens over 65 first.


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    #7983
    silver2020
    Registered Users Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭silver2020


    dor843088 wrote: »

    I know all too well what negative equity is believe me. Buying a brand new home in a seriously weakening market with a help to sell grant that will not be there on resale ? This is basically how to get yourself into negative equity 101.

    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)


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    #7984
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,731 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    cubatahavana wrote: »
    Exactly, let the most vulnerable have it first. I’d say citizens over 65 first.

    That wasn't quite what I meant. I meant you only really need enough to cover high urban density areas of Europe and enough people to get herd immunity, but if it's safe for the vulnerable, that approach would work too.


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    #7985
    HopsAndJumps
    Registered Users Posts: 304 ✭✭HopsAndJumps


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That wasn't quite what I meant. I meant you only really need enough to cover high urban density areas of Europe and enough people to get herd immunity, but if it's safe for the vulnerable, that approach would work too.

    Most of the covid vaccines are targeting an efficacy of 50%-60%.

    Even if the old and vulnerable are all vaccinated, 50%-40% of them can still catch the virus.

    We won't be to a back to normal.situation for a while though things will get better. (I hope/need)


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    #7986
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    folks, there's a dedicated forum for the discussion of Coronavirus (COVID-19) if you'd like to continue that discussion.


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    #7987
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    silver2020 wrote: »
    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)

    Or maybe because I have experienced negative and positive equity I have a balanced view and dont think that no matter what happens property prices never ever go down. From reading some poster in this forum you would think that property is just on a ratchet system to the moon.


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    #7988
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users Posts: 13,505 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    silver2020 wrote: »
    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)

    houses declined in price by more than 55% between 2006 and 2012


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    #7989
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,071 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    You're also assuming they haven't lived anywhere, paid any bills, and worked in unbroken employment in that time. So I would say quite unrealistic, yes.

    In the real world, someone who left college ten years ago will have almost certainly been let go or had their employer go bust at least once and worked at least one zero hours contract in that time, a period when they would have been glad to get 200 a week, never mind save it.

    For perspective, ten years ago I was working in a video game shop sifting through CVs from engineers and chemists. I got a quote for car insurance around the same time for 7 grand a year, and we all spent quite a lot of time in the work kitchen when we were off because the tea and bread was free.

    100k savings for a post 2007 thirty year old is fantasy land. Under present conditions most people in that age group will have their first shot at home ownership when their parents die.




    The obvious question is then what was your choice regarding the car? Did you insure it for 7k?


    People convince themselves that they *need* things that just make their life more comfortable. 7k on car insurance probably equates to well over 10k a year running costs on a car. Spending that to be able to drive a few minutes down the road to work on your off days to eat free bread seems the height of madness to me


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    #7990
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    folks, a friendly reminder this is the Accommodation & Property forum.

    If you'd like to discuss the price of Avocado Toast, Phones, Car Insurance or Nikes, please start a new thread in the appropriate forum.


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    #7991
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff


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    #7992
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Not surprised

    Most people using those schemes are doing jobs which don't exist anymore over this lockdown farce


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    #7993
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Not surprised

    Most people using those schemes are doing jobs which don't exist anymore over this lockdown farce

    Terrifying reading if you're a developer with a lot of units to shift.


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    #7994
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    I observe that people tend to spend a sizeable amount on income on crap. If you think it's not realistic to save it then that is your opinion. I know that it is not impossible. A reasonable cross section of society in their 20's could save 200 quid a week. You wouldn't need to be on 80k a year to do so.

    If you went to college then you probably survived on very little until you were say 22. If you stretched out that living like a student for say 2 years while working on a fairly low paid job, you would still be easily able to save 200 a week. No?

    Not sure why you seem to think that prepay phones work out as cheaper than billpay btw.

    New mortgage about to be drawn down in the next few weeks so that will be a necessary expense but

    :eek:Reading through the threads here had me curious to know how much money I spend in a year that I dont actually need to spend. Basically booze, gadgets, fags, phone, clothes, eating out, nice car, and holidays, lots of holidays and weekends away.

    It frightened the life out of me when I totaled it up.
    Well over €30K. Of course it wont be near that in 2020 because most of those things are not even possible in 2020.
    But i think if I took only one or two holidays a year, cut down on the booze and smokes and changed my car to a more sensible one I could get that to about a quarter of it and not really notice the cut back.

    Then I added up all the necessary things I have to spend money on. Mortgage, electricity, car tax, insurance, property tax, etc and it came to just over €15k.

    But I am going to have a major blowout when the virus is gone. Im going to eat out twice a week, go on a big foreign holiday and go to the pub every night. Just to get 2020 out of my system. :)

    I should have bought a bigger house :)


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    #7995
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Demand from those on generally lower incomes has fallen off a cliff..........

    I would have assumed this is the case since last March. To be expected.


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    #7996
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html

    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    RI want you to confirm you're not on the Covid subsidy (something I had a nightmare with recently) so even if you have managed to stay in employment, you may have found yourself suddenly snookered. It's a LOT of work to apply for, and they want 12 months of statements so any blips will show up for the next year.


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    #7997
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Available to those earning 75k (joint) or less sure a lot of these people have lost their jobs or are on PUP so they could not get a mortgage even with the grant due to banks not touching anyone who is not working or on PUP


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    #7998
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    fliball123 wrote: »
    We may not have had the fallout yet but the event is definitely here just try and go to for a pint and you will see :) .. You could be right but I still think it is 12 months away due to the budget keeping money in peoples pockets

    And how many people have stopped paying their mortgages. As we know non payers dont get evicted very easily in this country. But surely this problem cant be swept under the carpet over the long term.


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    #7999
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Deleted User wrote: »
    And how many people have stopped paying their mortgages. As we know non payers dont get evicted very easily in this country. But surely this problem cant be swept under the carpet over the long term.

    I have seen some people still getting away with it after the last crash not paying their mortgage and there is not one political party who will stand by during a pandemic and let banks repossess family homes in any great velocity the blow back would be huge from the lefties. I agree it is a problem but like the high rates of welfare and Public sector pay and pensions what is given is very hard to take away


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    #8000
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,408 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf

    Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.


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    #8001
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Timing belt wrote: »
    https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf

    Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.

    6000 mortgages on payment breaks may be OK but also may a problem. Will everyone get their jobs back or back to full hours or pay.


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    #8002
    Ursabear
    Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Ursabear


    Prime Dublin residential rents down 12% https://www.businessworld.ie/property-news/Prime-Dublin-residential-rents-down-12-since-March-574715.html


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    #8003
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The latest MSCI/SCSI Property Index shows that the value of retail properties on Grafton Street have fallen 18% since March while those on Henry Street have dropped 19%.

    Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/property-values-on-irelands-top-retail-streets-slump-by-a-fifth-39675329.html


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    #8004
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Q3 2020 DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET REVIEW from Owen Reilly:

    Owen Reilly have released their Q3 transactional analysis on the Dublin residential market in Q3 2020:

    Key findings:

    - Selling prices 1.2% below asking prices

    - Sales transactions up 21% compared to Q2

    - 65% of our buyers are owner occupiers

    - 42% of our sellers are landlords exiting the market

    - Rents have fallen 11.7% since March

    Link to report here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q3-2020-dublin-residential-market-review/


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    #8005
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Mortgage approvals for the month of September, is well above average pre-crisis levels.


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    #8006
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Q3 2020 DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET REVIEW from Owen Reilly:

    Owen Reilly have released their Q3 transactional analysis on the Dublin residential market in Q3 2020:

    Key findings:

    - Selling prices 1.2% below asking prices

    - Sales transactions up 21% compared to Q2

    - 65% of our buyers are owner occupiers

    - 42% of our sellers are landlords exiting the market

    - Rents have fallen 11.7% since March

    Link to report here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q3-2020-dublin-residential-market-review/

    The landlord exodus gathers pace.
    I think any that missed that window to sell are stuck now until after Christmas.
    If they miss that window they might be stuck forever :)


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    #8007
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    The landlord exodus gathers pace.
    I think any that missed that window to sell are stuck now until after Christmas.
    If they miss that window they might be stuck forever :)

    Why are they stuck till after xmas?


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    #8008
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Why are they stuck till after xmas?


    Well I doubt sales are going to be business as usual during level 5.
    Then you have Christmas.Notice periods are going to be all over the place too.


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    #8009
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,445 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Well I doubt sales are going to be business as usual during level 5.
    Then you have Christmas.Notice periods are going to be all over the place too.


    They didn't stop the last time there was a lockdown I know the number of properties that sold during the last lockdown was way down but there were still properties moving. There are still properties being put on the market and there is still viewings going on for example viewing today and I rang and they asked me what time I could make it over as they are staggering the viewings

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-rosemount-estate-dundrum-dublin-14/4459856

    Solicitors and banks are still open and working so there will still be people doing business with regard to property but they will be down at the same level as the last lockdown.


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    #8010
    brisan
    Registered Users Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    Until demand dies nothing is going to change ! Right now demand is what is keeping the market stable....Supply is never going to improve !

    How can demand decrease ?

    1) Job lossed and mass emigration like 2010 - Dont know where people will go as covid is a different ball game
    2) Worldwide depression resulting in ppl losing jobs etc - We are possibly in one, but until gov keep giving out doles bailouts etc nothing is going to change

    A big trigger can only change things in next one year ! Until then i dont see any major drops in prices !

    We will have to wait for
    A) A vaccine and things will go back to normal with some economic scarring
    B )Government switches of life support (which it will have to do at some point ) and then the dung will hit the fan


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    #8011
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    fliball123 wrote: »
    They didn't stop the last time there was a lockdown I know the number of properties that sold during the last lockdown was way down but there were still properties moving. There are still properties being put on the market and there is still viewings going on for example viewing today and I rang and they asked me what time I could make it over as they are staggering the viewings

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-rosemount-estate-dundrum-dublin-14/4459856

    Solicitors and banks are still open and working so there will still be people doing business with regard to property but they will be down at the same level as the last lockdown.


    Actually, they did slow down a hell of a lot last time.
    I think level 5 will effect viewings and preparations for sale.
    Maybe it wont, but i know what i would put my money on.


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