Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

That's hardly surprising given the very immediate impact of the pandemic on retail. Retail/leisure were always going to bear the brunt of the loss in trade given that's it's not easy for the sector to switch to a WFH model.

When the pandemic is eventually behind us, I'd expect valuations to bounce back.

Retail commercial space is primarily valued on footfall. The only way these valuations can 'bounce back' is if, post-Covid, all pre-covid office workers return to working 9 to 5 five days a week back at the office. Otherwise, footfall is down permanently and by extension, retail property values are down permanently.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Retail commercial space is primarily valued on footfall. The only way these valuations can 'bounce back' is if, post-Covid, all pre-covid office workers return to working 9 to 5 five days a week back at the office. Otherwise, footfall is down permanently and by extension, retail property values are down permanently.

While that's true, I've no doubt footfall will return to premium retail areas like Grafton Street but that's probably a discussion for another thread.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

While that's true, I've no doubt footfall will return to premium retail areas like Grafton Street but that's probably a discussion for another thread.

It's only 'prime' because of footfall e.g. office workers from the southside/northside travelling through Grafton Street to get to the other side. Less footfall, less potential customers, less sales, rents drop, property values drop. These are all businesses and sales are all that matters.

I'm also sure the new idea will be to make the area a 'recreational zone' or something similar with more restaurants etc. They tried that in the big shopping centres in the UK and all that happened was that there were more food outlets competing for the same limited number of visitors and sales of all existing food outlets went down.

PropQueries

Dublin City Council seeks to use Docklands tower block for social housing

"A 15-storey privately developed apartment block in Dublin’s south docklands could be used exclusively for social housing if permission is granted by An Bord Pleanála.

The council’s head of housing, Brendan Kenny, said any agreement with the developers would be pursued only if planning permission was granted and would also be subject to negotiations on price. However, he said the council would be “very, very interested” in acquiring the entire block.

We would get a lot of criticism over the scarcity of social housing in Dublin 4, so to have an opportunity like this, we would be very, very interested, if the place gets planning permission, if it gets built, and if the price is right.”

Given all this social housing being leased or purchased in Dublin 4, Dermot Desmond wasn't too far off for calling them 'Ballymun Towers South Dublin'.

Full story in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-seeks-to-use-docklands-tower-block-for-social-housing-1.4393441

nerrad01

PropQueries wrote: »

Dublin City Council seeks to use Docklands tower block for social housing

"A 15-storey privately developed apartment block in Dublin’s south docklands could be used exclusively for social housing if permission is granted by An Bord Pleanála.

The council’s head of housing, Brendan Kenny, said any agreement with the developers would be pursued only if planning permission was granted and would also be subject to negotiations on price. However, he said the council would be “very, very interested” in acquiring the entire block.

We would get a lot of criticism over the scarcity of social housing in Dublin 4, so to have an opportunity like this, we would be very, very interested, if the place gets planning permission, if it gets built, and if the price is right.”

Given all this social housing being leased or purchased in Dublin 4, Dermot Desmond wasn't too far off for calling them 'Ballymun Towers South Dublin'.

Full story in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-seeks-to-use-docklands-tower-block-for-social-housing-1.4393441

do they ever get it right!? the whole purpose of having a social housing requirement in new developments was to integrate people not create a bloody social housing tower!

PropQueries

nerrad01 wrote: »

do they ever get it right!? the whole purpose of having a social housing requirement in new developments was to integrate people not create a bloody social housing tower!

They are getting it right. It's basically the start of a back-door bailout for all those empty 'luxury' apartment blocks developers have being building over the past 3 years which they couldn't rent or sell.

It's like the carbon taxes. Dressed up as 'protecting the environment' while in reality, it's just a back-door tax increase on poor people to keep the Government coffers full.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

They are getting it right. It's basically the start of a back-door bailout for all those empty 'luxury' apartment blocks developers have being building over the past 3 years which they couldn't rent or sell.

It's like the carbon taxes. Dressed up as 'protecting the environment' while in reality, it's just a back-door tax increase on poor people to keep the Government coffers full.

How do the government make out of this?

KennisWhale

Smouse156 wrote: »

House prices surge as Covid upends economics
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-prices-surge-as-covid-upends-economics-39679973.html

More property pumping from the IO & David Chancer. Trying to spin global rises into rising prices here. Desperately don’t want prices to fall as the last line highlights “ Sadly for us, the global nature of capital markets means contagion will spread here in the event of a crash elsewhere.”

The famous line, "this time it's different". I love the optimism, he should replace Tony Holohan as CMO.

PropQueries

<SNIP>

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

<SNIP>

What's a 'link dump'? For future reference

Graham

Mod Note

folks if you're going to link to an article/tweet/video, there's an expectation that it's relevant and that you include your opinion/connection to the discussion.

Specifically for this thread, that should be at least loosely how the linked item is connected to the Irish Property Market 2020.

nerrad01

seems to be an increase in the number of properties being listed, my daft/ my home notifications have definitely increased significantly over the last few days. I wonder is there an increased appetite to get places sold before xmas

fliball123

nerrad01 wrote: »

seems to be an increase in the number of properties being listed, my daft/ my home notifications have definitely increased significantly over the last few days. I wonder is there an increased appetite to get places sold before xmas

I don't know where you are seeing that if you look at the myhome.ie homepage available properties 16414 yesterday there was 50 more available so it is actually going down on a daily basis. Maybe the area you have set up for your notifications have had a few properties up for sale but its not typical of the rest of the country

I've a pretty broad range for my filter on daft.ie and there have been 2 new properties listed since the 23rd of October, if anything I've noticed things dry up

nerrad01

fliball123 wrote: »

I don't know where you are seeing that if you look at the myhome.ie homepage available properties 16414 yesterday there was 50 more available so it is actually going down on a daily basis. Maybe the area you have set up for your notifications have had a few properties up for sale but its not typical of the rest of the country

yep i was purely talking anecdotally, as my notifications had practically stopped. So nice to see something going again

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

Dublin City Council seeks to use Docklands tower block for social housing

"A 15-storey privately developed apartment block in Dublin’s south docklands could be used exclusively for social housing if permission is granted by An Bord Pleanála.

The council’s head of housing, Brendan Kenny, said any agreement with the developers would be pursued only if planning permission was granted and would also be subject to negotiations on price. However, he said the council would be “very, very interested” in acquiring the entire block.

We would get a lot of criticism over the scarcity of social housing in Dublin 4, so to have an opportunity like this, we would be very, very interested, if the place gets planning permission, if it gets built, and if the price is right.”

Given all this social housing being leased or purchased in Dublin 4, Dermot Desmond wasn't too far off for calling them 'Ballymun Towers South Dublin'.

Full story in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-seeks-to-use-docklands-tower-block-for-social-housing-1.4393441

How much are they going to pay to lease that I wonder.
Would they not be better off doing what we all do, when we look at D4 and realize buying there is going to break us, and look for value by leasing in a cheaper location.

combat14

Banks turning the screw on some covid mortgage applicants

Bank defends asking mortgage applicants whether their employer is seeking State Covid assistance

https://www.thejournal.ie/banks-ewss-mortgage-applicants-5245714-Oct2020/

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

How much are they going to pay to lease that I wonder.
Would they not be better off doing what we all do, when we look at D4 and realize buying there is going to break us, and look for value by leasing in a cheaper location.

I wonder will they get a better deal than the Herbert Hill apartments in Dundrum?

"The Herbert Hill apartments are now set to be used as social housing with the council reportedly paying monthly rents of some €2,000 for one-bed apartments, €2,500 for two-bed units and €3,000 for three-bed units. However, protesters argue that rent paid by the council over the next 25 years will end up exceeding what Realis paid for the complex, which stands in a prime location next to Dundrum Town Centre."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/council-chairman-defends-dundrum-lease-deal-with-foreign-cuckoo-fund-1.4108443

thefridge2006

combat14 wrote: »

Banks turning the screw on some covid mortgage applicants

Bank defends asking mortgage applicants whether their employer is seeking State Covid assistance

https://www.thejournal.ie/banks-ewss-mortgage-applicants-5245714-Oct2020/

Great to see

DelBoy Trotter

Deleted User wrote: »

I've a pretty broad range for my filter on daft.ie and there have been 2 new properties listed since the 23rd of October, if anything I've noticed things dry up

I've noticed the same thing over the last month, very few properties coming to the market in the areas I've been searching

CorkRed93

DelBoy Trotter wrote: »

I've noticed the same thing over the last month, very few properties coming to the market in the areas I've been searching

Yep , same here in Cork.

fliball123

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Yep , same here in Cork.

But surely with the 50% price decreases coming before the end of the year everyone would be saturating the market with their property in order to get as much as they can .. God the amount of properties available on myhome is just drying up so fast. Anyone a take on why this is happening?

fliball123

fliball123 wrote: »

But surely with the 50% price decreases coming before the end of the year everyone would be saturating the market with their property in order to get as much as they can .. God the amount of properties available on myhome is just drying up so fast. Anyone a take on why this is happening?

Are you selling a house?

TheSheriff

fliball123 wrote: »

But surely with the 50% price decreases coming before the end of the year everyone would be saturating the market with their property in order to get as much as they can .. God the amount of properties available on myhome is just drying up so fast. Anyone a take on why this is happening?

I would expect supply to remain low until we are well out of this, why would you move now unless you absolutely had too; too many factors at play.

Rather than causing a dramatic decrease in the market as expected, it's possibly and looking likely covid will just cause it to seize up for the foreseeable.

Obviously this is not good for both buyers and sellers, irrespective of prices achieved.

Billythekid19

fliball123 wrote: »

But surely with the 50% price decreases coming before the end of the year everyone would be saturating the market with their property in order to get as much as they can .. God the amount of properties available on myhome is just drying up so fast. Anyone a take on why this is happening?

Theres a clear chronic supply issue whilst at the same time pent up demand for from the last last 6 months of lockdowns ect.
It would be a very risky move for a family to put their house on the market in the current climate, I know I certainly wouldnt. Whos to say the seller will have a job in 6 months time, would be reckless to plan a move with so much uncertainty and almost impossible to search for a new house with the 5km travel limit.

fliball123

Deleted User wrote: »

Are you selling a house?

No I bought and sold during the earlier part of the year

fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Theres a clear chronic supply issue whilst at the same time pent up demand for from the last last 6 months of lockdowns ect.
It would be a very risky move for a family to put their house on the market in the current climate, I know I certainly wouldnt. Whos to say the seller will have a job in 6 months time, would be reckless to plan a move with so much uncertainty and almost impossible to search for a new house with the 5km travel limit.

I believe you can look outside your 5k and go to viewings on housing outside of the 5k as housing is an essential service

Claw Hammer

Few if any new builds have commenced since March. Those that were under construction at that time are the last new builds which will be on the market for quite some time to come. The trading up market is bedevilled by uncertainty. People are saving rather than spending. It is also extremely difficult and inconvenient to market and occupied property due to the restrictions and also messy and inconvenient to view property. All repossession cases in the courts have been halted since March, so again there are fewer properties from that source coming to the market. Demographically, household formations are occurring at a high rate due to the Celtic Tiger baby boom.

fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Theres a clear chronic supply issue whilst at the same time pent up demand for from the last last 6 months of lockdowns ect.
It would be a very risky move for a family to put their house on the market in the current climate, I know I certainly wouldnt. Whos to say the seller will have a job in 6 months time, would be reckless to plan a move with so much uncertainty and almost impossible to search for a new house with the 5km travel limit.

But people have been spouting on herewith the amount of air bnb and rentals coming on stream (this was 8 or 9 months ago) and the fact that there is no tourism, no students and no immigration inwards, we would have a huge property range to choose from and the opposite has happened.

Claw Hammer

fliball123 wrote: »

But people have been spouting on herewith the amount of air bnb and rentals coming on stream (this was 8 or 9 months ago) and the fact that there is no tourism, no students and no immigration inwards, we would have a huge property range to choose from and the opposite has happened.

There is plenty of supply on the rental market.