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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6722
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,800 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    bennyl10 wrote: »
    The projections were there for us all to see

    The reasoning was clear

    It was with those projections Tony “mandated” the appropriate level, which happened to be 5.

    The requirement to advise had been bypassed it seems.


  • #6723
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Kivaro wrote: »
    Covering their asses, or just a coincidence?
    There are two reports there now.
    As long as they retain the original data ....

    And that's exactly what impartial reporters should be doing; keep asking questions until there is a reasonable and sensible response.

    The PDFs are all still there. The OP was looking on the wrong place:
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard.html


  • #6724
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,053 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    That's exactly what he did, and therein lies the problem. The situation is far too complex to accurately model so it's inappropriate to communicate the predictions of a model as the likely outcome.
    Did he suggest it was a likely outcome, or the outcome if certain things continued to happen?

    You can't model accurately with any degree of confidence, because you can't say "Okay, we're going to model things based on going into level 5 and X is going to happen" because some people won't adhere to level 5, and things are much worse than forecast, and people go apesh*t and claim they weren't warned. Human behaviour is about as variable as model variables are likely to get.
    So do you give no models? No. Because then you have self-anointed statisticians with a remedial grasp of mathematics predicting Christ knows what, and people will listen to them because people like models and graphs and not having to think for themselves.


    So you give a simple model, with its acknowledged limitations and caveats, and hope that some people heed it as a warning of what might come to pass if things continue as they are, and try to ignore the people who come to the end of A Christmas Carol and go "That fecking Ghost of Christmas Future hadn't a notion what he was talking about - he got it all wrong!".


  • #6725
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,295 ✭✭✭prunudo


    Stheno wrote: »
    Not compared to Belgium they appear to be really struggling

    Some of the numbers across Europe are frightening

    The poster i quoted appeared very concerned about Dublin figures yesterday, said it was a 'disaster zone' but today we're all doing a great job.

    You're right though Belgium and parts of Europe not looking great.


  • #6726
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    And when pressed, he said he couldn't know for sure.

    The bould Zara wasn't been fobbed off with a standard tactic Tony uses, bore them to death.

    She got quite feisty.

    Anyway contact tracing didn't just collapse last weekend.

    Which is it boggles? Does contact tracing collapsing result in lower or higher rates of positive tests, or is it either or when it suits?
    Boggles wrote:
    But contact tracing has collapsed, the trend looks like 10% positivity in a week.


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  • #6727
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    The PDFs are all still there. The OP was looking on the wrong place:
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard.html

    My bad. Sorry


  • #6728
    Non solum non ambulabit
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭Non solum non ambulabit


    Stheno wrote: »
    Not compared to Belgium they appear to be really struggling

    Some of the numbers across Europe are frightening

    Dublin is not a disaster zone in any shape.


  • #6729
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Excess deaths in the Americas is roughly 900,000 above normal now(official covid deaths 650,000), approaching 0.1% of the entire mega continent's population of almost exactly 1 billion


  • #6730
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    It was with those projections Tony “mandated” the appropriate level, which happened to be 5.

    The requirement to advise had been bypassed it seems.

    What are you on about?


  • #6731
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    440Hertz wrote: »
    Here’s the bottle

    [img][/img]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=530839&d=1603829219

    I’m now confused - is this a safe ingredient based on some small % or is this a problem?

    Check the address on the bottle:
    https://gardinerfamilyapothecary.com/products/advanced-hand-sanitiser-gel
    Ingredients Ethanol 70% and *Methanol 5% with Aloe Vera and Glycerine.

    *Methanol is added to denature the alcohol so that it cannot be consumed, a requirement for all high alcohol content products not sold for consumption. Only a very small amount of this ingredient is used in the Ovelle hand sanitiser, less than 5%, European Law permits the use of methanol at up to 5% in a topical product. All of our products are formulated for sensitive skin.


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  • #6732
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    My bad. Sorry

    No worries, I managed to click the wrong link before and was curious as there's pretty good information in those 2 files.


  • #6733
    PowerToWait
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭PowerToWait


    Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »
    Dublin is not a disaster zone in any shape.

    Do you think there was any need for restrictions?


  • #6734
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,592 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Which is it boggles? Does contact tracing collapsing result in lower or higher rates of positive tests, or is it either or when it suits?

    It results in missed cases.

    We have had this drilled into us since March.

    Test - Trace - Isolate.


  • #6735
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    There is more recent work, published in the same journal, that does not paint the same nightmarish vision
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771385



    Also, presence of abnormalities in an MRI is no more in an of itself a confirmation of myocarditis and potential long term effects, than a cough is a confirmation of pneumonia.

    As with anything, there is always far more nuance than is often reported

    Yeah read the paper there. Talks a lot about nothing. May , may , may. Not is. No risk controlled group too compare with. No. sample size. No thanks.

    Also nice conflicts of interest. Now why would any of those companies not want elimination? huh? Would it be anything to do with potential profits from vaccines and treatments. If it doesn't exist there is no problem. If people were made aware of the damage this causes then the choice will be made as hard as that is. It's the easier option rather than prolonged suffering and hardship that "living with the virus entails.



    Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Dr Shah reported receiving grants from Corvia; receiving grants and personal fees from Actelion, AstraZeneca, Novartis, and Pfizer; and receiving personal fees from Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Bayer, Axon Therapies, Coridea, Boston Scientific, Abbott, Edwards, Imara, Bristol Myers Squibb, Aria CV, Shifamed, Amgen, United Therapeutics, Sanofi, Boehringer-Ingelheim, MyoKardia, Cyclerion, Ironwood, Cytokinetics, Eisai, Ionis, Merck, and Regeneron. Dr Khan reported receiving grants from National Institutes of Health/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences. No other disclosures were reported.

    Reminds me of the research that led to the "food pyramid" in the 70s /80s.

    530846.jpg


  • #6736
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Hey sorry had to do something....

    Yeah with respect I'm going to have to go with the peer reviewed scientific paper I'm afraid raind. I'm sorry to say but I don't find you very believable. No offence meant. Remember when you kept saying it's not exponential and I kept posting charts, then I posted one with the equation showing the fit and you still couldn't bring yourself to say the word exponential. Found that very weird.

    Anyway all the best and hope you are doing well. Here's a chart which I guess you didn't look at otherwise you would have seen the folly of your 'take-down'
    You and I know it's only been less than a year since covid around so of course there is no evidence of longer term than that/ :)

    (light circles below show asymptomatic cases with heart damage)

    530835.png

    530836.png

    I have subsequently replied with a recent article from the same journal, not one 4 months old that diagnosed myocarditis based on an mri?

    And where is your exponential chart today? Because as you well know, but will not admit in your rank intellectual dishonesty, ably demonstrated by your established tactic of previously inventing fake links, a period of observed exponential growth is not evidence that it will sustain as was proven within days of your chart


  • #6737
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Ficheall wrote: »
    So do you give no models? No. Because then you have self-anointed statisticians with a remedial grasp of mathematics predicting Christ knows what, and people will listen to them because people like models and graphs and not having to think for themselves.
    .

    Professor Sam McConkey says hi


  • #6738
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,775 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    It looks like things were a bit rushed to level 5. Level 3 not given enough time.


  • #6739
    Kivaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    The PDFs are all still there. The OP was looking on the wrong place:
    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard.html
    Indeed they are. Thanks Wolfie.


  • #6740
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,138 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    I do think some people just want to be ****en miserable, numbers starting to turn here slightly and people move their attention to Europe and forget all about here.


  • #6741
    Nonoperational
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,401 ✭✭✭Nonoperational


    Need to be careful with these papers picking a small change in specific metrics and inferring long term complications.

    How many MRIs are done after recovery from influenza? Certainly common to see mild troponin increases post many many illnesses. Serious health hazard with a lot of this research.


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  • #6742
    440Hertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Check the address on the bottle:
    https://gardinerfamilyapothecary.com/products/advanced-hand-sanitiser-gel

    It’s a bit daft that the law requires that an otherwise safe alcohol be made toxic to protect the alcoholic beverages sector.


  • #6743
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    Professor Sam McConkey says hi

    You do know you are not allowed have any visitors?


  • #6744
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I have subsequently replied with a recent article from the same journal, not one 4 months old that diagnosed myocarditis based on an mri?

    And where is your exponential chart today? Because as you well know, but will not admit in your rank intellectual dishonesty, ably demonstrated by your established tactic of previously inventing fake links, a period of observed exponential growth is not evidence that it will sustain as was proven within days of your chart

    Jaysus, are you ok? You said it didn't include asymptomatics. It has nice light circles so you can see them . All papers are not of equal importance, you must know that.

    You couldn't even say the word exponential when the chart was staring you in the face. I don't know why that is. Found very strange. "proven wrong in days"

    I never said it would continue in that manner if control measures were taken which they were. That's a complete straw man argument. We threw everything but the kitchen sink at this.
    1. Stopped contact tracing,
    2. classed contacts in schools differently to the general population.
    3. Closed a lab
    4. banned people from doing everything.

    Same bull**** argument rolled out against Nolan for literally drawing a line. Take a chill pill.


  • #6745
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 191 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    niallo27 wrote: »
    I do think some people just want to be ****en miserable, numbers starting to turn here slightly and people move their attention to Europe and forget all about here.

    A bit like RTE 6.01 News today.

    A bit of positive news here, their top story, Belgium of course.

    Ramp up the hysteria another notch.


  • #6746
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    It was with those projections Tony “mandated” the appropriate level, which happened to be 5.

    The requirement to advise had been bypassed it seems.


    What?
    Are you just purposely ignorant to what NPHET do? Or just never bothered to actually educate yourself!

    NPHET doesn’t mandate anything, it offers advice and recommendations based on the projections.


  • #6747
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Yeah read the paper there. Talks a lot about nothing. May , may , may. Not is. No risk controlled group too compare with. No. sample size. No thanks.

    Also nice conflicts of interest. Now why would any of those companies not want elimination? huh? Would it be anything to do with potential profits from vaccines and treatments. If it doesn't exist there is no problem. If people were made aware of the damage this causes then the choice will be made as hard as that is. It's the easier option rather than prolonged suffering and hardship that "living with the virus entails.






    Reminds me of the research that led to the "food pyramid" in the 70s /80s.

    530846.jpg

    Can’t attack the message, attack the messenger, and even then miss completely. All these companies who are developing vaccines and other treatments, as well as other listed who manufacture pharmaceuticals and medical devices that would be used in treatment have an interest in underplaying the effects?

    What the list you highlighted shows is that the authors are among the most respected in their field, courted by competitors of each other in multiple fields


  • #6748
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    WasBornToBoogie wrote: »
    A bit like RTE 6.01 News today.

    A bit of positive news here, their top story, Belgium of course.

    Ramp up the hysteria another notch.

    Thought the Kanturk story was top?

    Very tragic


  • #6749
    domrush
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,183 ✭✭✭domrush


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Jaysus, are you ok? You said it didn't include asymptomatics. It has nice light circles so you can see them . All papers are not of equal importance, you must know that.

    You couldn't even say the word exponential when the chart was staring you in the face. I don't know why that is. Found very strange. "proven wrong in days"

    I never said it would continue in that manner if control measures were taken which they were. That's a complete straw man argument. We threw everything but the kitchen sink at this.
    1. Stopped contact tracing,
    2. classed contacts in schools differently to the general population.
    3. Closed a lab
    4. banned people from doing everything.

    Same bull**** argument rolled out against Nolan for literally drawing a line. Take a chill pill.

    The tone of this post is tough to take.


  • #6750
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,053 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    Professor Sam McConkey says hi
    Yep, explained his presumed calculations yesterday too, as simply as I could:

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115056741&postcount=5393


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  • #6751
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 191 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Thought the Kanturk story was top?

    Very tragic

    Top COVID story I should clarify.


This discussion has been closed.
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