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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6692
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,143 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    It's going to be up and down for a long time I think.

    Oh and Holohan doesn't care about Zara either. He will advise what is best and did so, and now we have a bit of hope that an easing may happen over Christmas. That was well planned timing wise I think.

    But I don't think pubs and restaurants will be opened as we know them anytime soon either. Looking at Belgium and Spain and other places, it is a relentless feckin virus seeking out hosts everywhere.

    This is our lives for a while to come. All the ranting in the world won't change it either.


  • #6693
    TonyMaloney
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,150 ✭✭✭TonyMaloney


    Boggles wrote: »
    You are familiar with the HSE, correct? :)

    The leader of our country was informed by text a from a journalist tracing had collapsed last week.

    Minister of Health didn't have a scooby.

    The the head of HSE kind of apologized and said he was going to try and achieve 70%.

    "Fine" is a very relative term when you are dealing with that level of incompetence.

    Anyway the public health doctors are tasked with tracing are vocal on twitter.

    They have been raising the alarm for weeks.

    I dunno if it's related, but they've deleted all their contact tracing data PDFs from this page

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html


  • #6694
    bennyl10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,603 ✭✭✭bennyl10


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    If Tony “mandates” level 5 he shouldn’t have to explain the reasons why.

    Bizarre to think he should have to answer any questions

    The projections were there for us all to see

    The reasoning was clear


  • #6695
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Doesn’t talk about asymptomatic individuals, and isn’t evidence of long term damage.

    Hey sorry had to do something....

    Yeah with respect I'm going to have to go with the peer reviewed scientific paper I'm afraid raind. I'm sorry to say but I don't find you very believable. No offence meant. Remember when you kept saying it's not exponential and I kept posting charts, then I posted one with the equation showing the fit and you still couldn't bring yourself to say the word exponential. Found that very weird.

    Anyway all the best and hope you are doing well. Here's a chart which I guess you didn't look at otherwise you would have seen the folly of your 'take-down'
    You and I know it's only been less than a year since covid around so of course there is no evidence of longer term than that/ :)

    (light circles below show asymptomatic cases with heart damage)

    530835.png

    530836.png




    An unselected cohort of 100 patients who recently recovered from COVID-19 infection were included, of which 53 (53%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 49 (14) years. Baseline characteristics are provided in Table 1. Most patients recovered at home (n = 67), with severity of the acute COVID-19 illness ranging from asymptomatic (n = 18) to minor to moderate symptoms (n = 49). A total of 33 severely unwell patients (33%) required hospitalization.


  • #6696
    MelbourneMan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭MelbourneMan


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Thanks for your opinion. Sounds a lot like "the weak suffer what they must". "sacrificial lambs" and "the greater good" all rolled into one. Thanks. Two questions while I have you.....
    • Are schools "safe"?
    • Should they reopen even if we can't see the transmission that occurs and the fact they can infect vulnerable family members and drive the filling up of hospitals and ICU that we don't have?


    Pretty sure they are not. Home schooling is coming into focus for mine now.

    Hi. Sorry if you read it that way, but its not the intention. There are rather difficult decisions to be made at this time, which require a balancing of various tradeoffs, benefits, and costs, and the aim is to find the optimum balance.

    "Safe" is not really possible to define or quanify. Nevertheless, a handwaving answer, is that school is "safe" in the context of the various risks facing us all daily.

    All indications are that they should reopen as expected. Nothing has changed to alter that outlook. Rather, recent daily data confirms that the trend is in the desired direction.


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  • #6697
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    Boggles wrote: »
    You are familiar with the HSE, correct? :)

    The leader of our country was informed by text a from a journalist tracing had collapsed last week.

    Minister of Health didn't have a scooby.

    The the head of HSE kind of apologized and said he was going to try and achieve 70%.

    "Fine" is a very relative term when you are dealing with that level of incompetence.

    Anyway the public health doctors are tasked with tracing are vocal on twitter.

    They have been raising the alarm for weeks.

    I think we are in agreement

    My point was that we are.getting multiples versions of the truth and there is no consistency


  • #6698
    wirelessdude01
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,468 ✭✭✭wirelessdude01


    Boggles wrote: »
    And when pressed, he said he couldn't know for sure.

    The bould Zara wasn't been fobbed off with a standard tactic Tony uses, bore them to death.

    She got quite feisty.

    Anyway contact tracing didn't just collapse last weekend.

    You kinda got the impression that she had loads more questions to ask but decided that they can wait until Thursday as Tony was visibly beginning to get annoyed/exasperated.


  • #6699
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    wirelessdude01 wrote: »
    You kinda got the impression that she had loads more questions to ask but decided that they can wait until Thursday as Tony was visibly beginning to get annoyed/exasperated.

    And she was the first one up!

    At least Paul Cullen wasn't there


  • #6700
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,053 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    KrustyUCC wrote: »
    His modelling is worthless if its out by such a margin
    Nolan: "Let's suppose I have the number 10, and I add 5 to it. I get 15. Then I add 5 again. I get 20. Now, IF we add 5 again, we'll get 25."


    Boards boffins: "HA! I added 1 and got 21, you dozy pillock! Your maths is sh*t!"


  • #6701
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Nolan: "Let's suppose I have the number 10, and I add 5 to it. I get 15. Then I add 5 again. I get 20. Now, IF we add 5 again, we'll get 25."


    Boards boffins: "HA! I added 1 and got 21, you dozy pillock! Your maths is sh*t!"

    Yes that's exactly what is being said. Beautifully summarised. :rolleyes:


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  • #6702
    440Hertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    froog wrote: »
    no methanol should be in any hand sanitizer. it's extremely toxic.

    Here’s the bottle

    attachment.php?attachmentid=530839&d=1603829219

    I’m now confused - is this a safe ingredient based on some small % or is this a problem?


  • #6703
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,053 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    mcburns07 wrote: »
    Yes that's exactly what is being said. Beautifully summarised. :rolleyes:
    Are you suggesting he didn't give a very simple model and suggested a result that would happen if things kept going as they had been?
    And that people are now pointing out that things did not keep going as they had been and, shockingly, the result was different to what they would have been if they had?



    I can't find the direct quote, granted, but feel free to direct me to it.


  • #6704
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,143 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    jackboy wrote: »
    Outdoor dining at Christmas is not a luxury, it sounds like some sort of horrible torture.

    Well I was in Maastricht in December a couple of years ago, and EVERYONE was outside the bars and restaurants around the main square. Well set up though with heaters and awnings etc. Traffic free place too.

    It can be done if the will is there, people will get used to it.


  • #6705
    BringBackMick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭BringBackMick


    This evenings presser reinforces my believe we will be sitting at around 100 cases by late November and being told by Tony not to get complacent, the next two weeks are crucial, hold firm

    We need the political parties to come up with an exit strategy soon so NPHET don’t hold us back


  • #6706
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    Good couple of videos by David Higgins on twitter

    https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1321168567199506432?s=21

    Nice, such optimism, confidence and youth. More power to him. He'd get on well here.


  • #6707
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    440Hertz wrote: »
    Here’s the bottle

    [img][/img]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=530839&d=1603829219

    Is methanol not what is used in methylated spirits. I wouldn't touch it thanks. Someone added it to stop people drinking it.
    methylated spirit | mɛθəleɪtɪdˈspɪrɪt | (also methylated spirits)
    noun [mass noun]
    alcohol for general use that has been made unfit for drinking by the addition of about 10 per cent methanol and typically also some pyridine and a violet dye.


    Denatured alcohol, also called methylated spirits or wood spirit or denatured rectified spirit, is ethanol that has additives to make it poisonous, bad-tasting, foul-smelling, or nauseating to discourage recreational consumption. It is sometimes dyed so that it can be


  • #6708
    mcburns07
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,481 ✭✭✭mcburns07


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Are you suggesting he didn't give a very simple model and suggested a result that would happen if things kept going as they had been?
    And that people are now pointing out that things did not keep going as they had been and, shockingly, the result was different to what they would have been if they had?



    I can't find the direct quote, granted, but feel free to direct me to it.

    That's exactly what he did, and therein lies the problem. The situation is far too complex to accurately model so it's inappropriate to communicate the predictions of a model as the likely outcome.


  • #6709
    440Hertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 651 ✭✭✭440Hertz


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Is methanol not what is used in methylated spirits. I wouldn't touch it thanks. Someone added it to stop people drinking it.

    The Department of Health & the EU agencies need to get on top of this and clarify it ASAP.


  • #6710
    Kivaro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭Kivaro


    TonyMaloney wrote: »
    I dunno if it's related, but they've deleted all their contact tracing data PDFs from this page

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html

    Covering their asses, or just a coincidence?
    There are two reports there now.
    As long as they retain the original data ....
    wirelessdude01 wrote: »
    You kinda got the impression that she had loads more questions to ask but decided that they can wait until Thursday as Tony was visibly beginning to get annoyed/exasperated.
    And that's exactly what impartial reporters should be doing; keep asking questions until there is a reasonable and sensible response.


  • #6711
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Is methanol not what is used in methylated spirits. I wouldn't touch it thanks. Someone added it to stop people drinking it.

    Also known more commonly as Paddy Whiskey.


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  • #6712
    Mike3549
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭Mike3549


    normanoffside wrote: »
    Most smokers notice they are damaging their lungs.

    Source???


  • #6713
    AlphaDelta1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 477 ✭✭AlphaDelta1


    Wow looking at Belgium and they are in all sorts of bother. We are doing okay here. Well done everyone


  • #6714
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,143 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Also known more commonly as Paddy Whiskey.

    LOL.


  • #6715
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,143 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Wow looking at Belgium and they are in all sorts of bother. We are doing okay here. Well done everyone

    Well done Nphet you mean? They know their stuff and whilst some do not have time for Herr Holohan, it is working so far.

    That's good, but breakouts will happen. Haven't heard much about house parties lately :P


  • #6716
    bb1234567
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Wow looking at Belgium and they are in all sorts of bother. We are doing okay here. Well done everyone

    Belgium has been very unfortunate, already lost 0.1% of population to covid and based on current hospitalisations looks like second wave will cause as many or more deaths again


  • #6717
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Wow looking at Belgium and they are in all sorts of bother. We are doing okay here. Well done everyone


    I bet Leo's hoping nobody remembers when he suggested looking to Belgium for how to decide on restrictions.


  • #6718
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    That's of people who died. Why not look at the living?

    Please scrutinise this study if you are not busy.

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916?referringSource=articleShare

    There is more recent work, published in the same journal, that does not paint the same nightmarish vision
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771385
    Although case reports have described profound COVID-19 myocarditis leading to HFpEF, the more common manifestation in the COVID-19 era may be HFpEF related primarily to the unmasking of subclinical HFpEF

    Also, presence of abnormalities in an MRI is no more in an of itself a confirmation of myocarditis and potential long term effects, than a cough is a confirmation of pneumonia.

    As with anything, there is always far more nuance than is often reported


  • #6719
    prunudo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,296 ✭✭✭prunudo


    AlphaDelta1 wrote: »
    Wow looking at Belgium and they are in all sorts of bother. We are doing okay here. Well done everyone

    So Dublin isn't a disaster zone anymore then?


  • #6720
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    MelbourneMan wrote: »
    Hi. Sorry if you read it that way, but its not the intention. There are rather difficult decisions to be made at this time, which require a balancing of various tradeoffs, benefits, and costs, and the aim is to find the optimum balance.

    "Safe" is not really possible to define or quanify. Nevertheless, a handwaving answer, is that school is "safe" in the context of the various risks facing us all daily.

    All indications are that they should reopen as expected. Nothing has changed to alter that outlook. Rather, recent daily data confirms that the trend is in the desired direction.

    No worries, I get where you are coming from. I agree that there are tough decisions to be made alright. I've got to look after mine and I don't have to sacrifice them for thee greater good. Statistically it is probably unlikely but I don't gamble with something like my kids. Even a hundred to one chance, no thanks.


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  • #6721
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    prunudo wrote: »
    So Dublin isn't a disaster zone anymore then?

    Not compared to Belgium they appear to be really struggling

    Some of the numbers across Europe are frightening


This discussion has been closed.
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