Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123 wrote: »

Have a look at the income tax take it was not down throughout the virus meaning those who have been paying the majority of income tax, those on the average and above average salaries are still working. (not sure how many low wage employees who would be in a position to buy even without Covid) Transactions are down due to the amount of red tape and extra work the process takes to buy a house, (all the moving parts, from solicitors to surveyors, to EAs to bank employees) while living in a covid world. It would be great to get some data on the timeframes for a property selling between going sale agreed and sold. I also believe the translations completed are ramping back up over the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the next 4 months go but I thought we would of seen a drop by now and this is not the case. Covid started in Feb its now the end of October that's 9 months. The crash in 08 is generally accepted that the Lehman Brothers hitting the wall in September signaled the spiral downwards with in 9 months of that event Irish property prices had plummeted and there was panic and prices were only going one way. We are 9 months since the event of Covid impacting us and prices have stayed flat.

fliball123 wrote: »

Whatever the signals you have up here it has not happened yet. Like I say the above signals mean nothing. If the market had been following your so called signals we should of seen a drop of at least 10% 9 months into possibly the biggest global event of my life and yet it has not come to pass.

Reasons not signals for prices staying where they are as follows.

Supply dwindling on a daily/weekly basis add in new house builds have slowed down.

People who were paying the majority of the tax are still working are saving more due to working from home and will be able to buy.

We have a huge subset in society in the 25 - 50 who are most likely to buy (something you tried to mislead people with your out of date stats)

It now costs money to hold money in a bank and other investment opportunities such as shares are even more risky due to the current climate. As an investor the idea of being able to buy a house give it to the Irish government for 20+ years and make a safe ROI backed by the gov is a very attractive one in the current climate.


The government have just passed a budget that will keep money in peoples pockets for the next 12 months.

The Pfizer vaccine is nearly here and already countries/Continents like the US, and Europe have already subscribed to at least a billion orders of this vaccine. So we could be close to getting Corona under control it might take another 2 years to get it under control but like the flu jab it may be something someone can get once a year to keep Corona at bay.

So unless the Irish government go under and all the MNCs go away I cant see a drop in price for the next 12 months.

fliball123 wrote: »

Well we will have to wait and see. I honestly thought 6 months ago we would of seen a drop of 5 maybe 10% but it just hasnt happened and the points I made would make me believe that the drop will not happen for another 12 months..But god knows what will happen between now and then

PropQueries wrote: »

Of course not. Property is highly illiquid. But transactions are well down which doesn't bode well for the future direction of the property market.

As many have said here before, the only ones able to purchase are multinational employees and similar workers etc. who haven't been impacted by Covid-19.

Where are all these buyers if transactions are down. Plus there's only so many workers who aren't impacted that actually do require to purchase a home. The supply of these non-impacted covid-19 workers seeking to purchase a home is not unlimited.

Timing belt wrote: »

If the majority thought there was a property crash coming they would be frantically trying to sell their property and exit. The fact transactions are down shows that this is not the case.

donnaille wrote: »

What definition of 'negative equity' are you using, with a deposit &/or HTB there's very little change any homeowner in a new build estate is in negative equity.

KennisWhale wrote: »

I do not think we can say that we have had the covid event as of yet considering the government and central banks are still supporting the economy and markets. Until restrictions are eased and accompanying economic supports are wound down, the covid shock will be delayed.

In the quarter that everything is unfrozen we will start to see the fallout in the economy, which will only then start to affect the housing market, then a couple quarters later we will see the property market data. At this stage, best guess is Q2 2021 (April, 2021, at the start of the new tourism season) when the economy is unfrozen which means people are getting back to their jobs and will find out if they can still be paid the same amount / given the same number of hours, if they are even still needed by their company. The covid impact on housing would start to show in the quarterly reports after this (so Q3 reports onwards).

fliball123 wrote: »

Can you prove this? So by your calcs ..These houses have dropped by at least 10% (First time buyers deposit) + the 30k from the First time buyers scheme. Can you show me one property in this category?

Shoden wrote: »

Here's an interesting video on the subject just posted by Shane Fleming: https://youtu.be/H_rSohgB6JU

Marius34 wrote: »

FTB competes with STB and other buyers, who are not eligible for HTB grants.
It makes no sense that resale properties are 30K lower.
If new house cost 330K, and resale price is 300K, I'm confident non-HTB grant buyers would choose the second one, no point to compete for same quality more expensive ones.

poker--addict wrote: »

I am not sure i see this the same way, and I am all for decreases.

Looking at price changes seems flawed - most people and agents start ambitious with their asking price, so surely the natural tendency is for asking price changes on the whole to average out as a downward trend, even in a solid marketplace? I read nothing into a -2% reduction in asking price changes.

The very fact that there are still loads of properties still increasing their asking price is a bigger indicator to me that upward pressure remains. I would imagine asking price increases would reduce to practically zero in a bear enviroment.

To be fair, he does explain it is flawed after showing loads of them

Shoden wrote: »

Here's an interesting video on the subject just posted by Shane Fleming: https://youtu.be/H_rSohgB6JU

markjbloggs wrote: »

There will not be sufficient doses of a coronavirus vaccine to cover the wider EU population before 2022, officials said today in an internal meeting.

First line of that RTE 2022 report, pathetic journalism. Awful stuff