Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

normanoffside · 27-10-2020 07:39PM

Stheno wrote: »

It was definitely 70 something 78 or 79 as I remember thinking it was around 40% of the total

Yep they said 78 or 79 Covid deaths in October.
Some of those announced in October didn't happen in October which is wehre worldometer fails.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:39PM

Sorry to burst peoples bubbles but we already saw a temporary drop in the cases in Dublin and they've been going up since the "shock" of level 3+ faded. Let's hope level 5 will be able to really reduce the cases more permanently since these figures in all fairness do look promising

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:39PM

Benimar wrote: »

It’s down to the Government. If it was all ‘down to NPHET’ we would have been in Level 5 two weeks earlier.

If NPHET are happy to recommend then it's no problem. If they are not, then what?

Stheno · 27-10-2020 07:41PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, but NPHET need to be on board with a change of level. If they are not the Cabinet is far less likely to move unilaterally.

I suspect that is not the case given the reports last week that there was d we ep division in he cabinet about moving to Level 5

If the cases drop significantly this week in particular, I believe there are some in Cabinet who will question moving to Level 5 last week

Happydays2020 · 27-10-2020 07:41PM

Stheno wrote: »

No. It will be down to the Cabinet after they take on board NPHETs advice

Looking around Europe, this circuit break may well yield results in the months ahead. I think there is buy in out there for it and not entirely sure that buy in would have been there in the weeks previously.

The time used to get enforcement measure through was important as was the Budget which has paved the way to ensure that the financial compensation is more sustainable.

46 Long · 27-10-2020 07:42PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Those predictions were made for the scenario if we continued at level 2. *sigh*

The fact is that we would be in the last week of level 5 restrictions now, if we went with the NPHET guidelines of Oct 4th.

But the politicians (who have just finished chapter 2 of the ladybird Book of Epidemiology) waited 2 weeks for the cases to double before going with the science.

We'd never be out of lockdown if it was up to NPHET. Remember the last time around? 'Two weeks to flatten the curve' turned into four months of lockdown.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:43PM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

In the letter on the 15th of October, the modelling estimates 1800-2300 daily cases by 31st October, with 80-110 in ICU.

Level 5 is less than a week old and Level 3 was deemed ineffective based on the above.

The decline in the last few days may prove to be temporary respite, but if not then serious scrutiny should be applied to those models and advice afforded before any return to level 5 is considered after Christmas.

Perhaps they were going off the ineffectiveness of lockdown in Dublin? Idk it sounds like it's more around the shock value these levels provide to the public than the actual restrictions, since the sort to be being pretty careless about that sort of thing aren't exactly likely to follow guidelines without that shock value either.

JP100 · 27-10-2020 07:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

It usually takes 14 days to see effects so the schools will be back well before that. What we are seeing at the moment is the effect of Level 3+. Level 5 will not be factor for another 7-10 days or so.

Well that's where you wrong, of course schools being closed since last Friday is a positive variable in all of this. Schools being off at the moment is great as an individual who may be infectious has not being in a crowded school for the past 4 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then having to turn up at a test centre. As such the effect of schools being closed can begin to play itself out and in to the numbers from a pretty early stage.

virginmediapls · 27-10-2020 07:43PM

46 Long wrote: »

We'd never be out of lockdown if it was up to NPHET. Remember the last time around? 'Two weeks to flatten the curve' turned into four months of lockdown.

And we also didnt have to use mass graves/have people dying on the streets thanks to NPHET.

spookwoman · 27-10-2020 07:44PM

Happydays2020 · 27-10-2020 07:44PM

JP100 wrote: »

Well that's where you wrong, of course schools being closed since last Friday is a positive variable in all of this. Schools being off at the moment is great as an individual who may be infectious has not being in a crowded school for the past 4 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then turning up at a test centre. As such the effect of schools being closed can begin to play itself in to the numbers from a pretty early stage.

Depends what the students are doing this week.

lbj666 · 27-10-2020 07:44PM

46 Long wrote: »

We'd never be out of lockdown if it was up to NPHET. Remember the last time around? 'Two weeks to flatten the curve' turned into four months of lockdown.

Maybe that's cause after two weeks the curve was getting steeper not flatter

growleaves · 27-10-2020 07:44PM

Irish Times reporting that opposition parties in Italy who are against restrictions, e.g. Northern League, are leading in opinion polls.

Plumbthedepths · 27-10-2020 07:45PM

virginmediapls wrote: »

And we also didnt have to use mass graves/have people dying on the streets thanks to NPHET.

Where were people dying on the streets? Or are you talking about homeless people who have been dying on the streets for years?

Stheno · 27-10-2020 07:46PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Looking around Europe, this circuit break may well yield results in the months ahead. I think there is buy in out there for it and not entirely sure that buy in would have been there in the weeks previously.

.

I agree it may yield results but still question if we needed level five so quickly

We have had restrictions now since March and currently have some of the most severe restrictions in Europe

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:46PM

Stheno wrote: »

I suspect that is not the case given the reports last week that there was deep division in he cabinet about moving to Level 5

If the cases drop significantly this week in particular, I believe there are some in Cabinet who will question moving to Level 5 last week

Sure, but will they just go and make a unilateral decision? I agree with them personally. Even if we look nearly good enough in 3-4 weeks will NPEHT even consider foreshortening their timeframe? What about for Dec 1? Not convinced of either so far.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:47PM

JP100 wrote: »

Well that's where you wrong, of course schools being closed since last Friday is a positive variable in all of this. Schools being off at the moment is great as an individual who may be infectious has not being in a crowded school for the past 4 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then turning up at a test centre. As such the effect of schools being closed can begin to play itself in to the numbers from a pretty early stage.

I don't think there was a notable decrease anywhere in the 4-24 category? Could be wrong though. The effect of schools would be perhaps perception of you being infected (that you'd be more likely to go for a test a crowded setting), but like it'll be pretty obvious if that's the case once the mid terms over so we'll see.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 07:47PM

523 deaths in France 367 deaths in UK jaysus..Europe's going downhill a lot faster than expected.

3000 people also hospitalised in France today alone,the highest number of hospitalisations since mid-April.
Assume France will issue nationwide stay at home order for any non essential reasons pretty imminently.

Belgium has also hospitalised 700 patients today, higher than any single day hospitalisations in April. Somehow Belgium has managed to experience an even worse second wave already

MOR316 · 27-10-2020 07:47PM

virginmediapls wrote: »

And we also didnt have to use mass graves/have people dying on the streets thanks to NPHET.

Teflon Tony must have learned from the Cervical Cancer episode

is_that_so · 27-10-2020 07:48PM

JP100 wrote: »

Well that's where you wrong, of course schools being closed since last Friday is a positive variable in all of this. Schools being off at the moment is great as an individual who may be infectious has not being in a crowded school for the past 4 days. It only takes 4 or 5 days sometimes less from the point of an individual being infected by somebody else and then having to turn up at a test centre. As such the effect of schools being closed can begin to play itself out and in to the numbers from a pretty early stage.

Then the CMO is wrong as well. You should send him a letter!

Stheno · 27-10-2020 07:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Sure, but will they just go and make a unilateral decision? I agree with them personally. Even if we look good nearly good enough in 3-4 weeks will NPEHT even consider foreshortening their timeframe? What about for Dec 1? Not convinced of either so far.

I'm not convinced either particularly after that briefing today

I actually don't believe half of what is said in them anymore tbh

Boggles · 27-10-2020 07:50PM

Stheno wrote: »

I agree it may yield results but still question if we needed level five so quickly

We have had restrictions now since March and currently have some of the most severe restrictions in Europe

And certain countries in Europe will have to go beyond us soon by the looks of it, with the added trauma of the deaths, hospitalizations and a demoralized front line health system.

Beasty · 27-10-2020 07:50PM

LilyShame wrote: »

The only reason the numbers are falling is because HSE track trace cannot keep up with the level of contact tracing. The only reason!! Altho it makes The Doctor look good... And detracts from any unsavoury news item about cervical screening.

This is the Coronavirus Forum - take discussion of cervical screening to Current Affairs

Happydays2020 · 27-10-2020 07:50PM

Stheno wrote: »

I agree it may yield results but still question if we needed level five so quickly

We have had restrictions now since March and currently have some of the most severe restrictions in Europe

I don’t buy that we should have gone two weeks previously. I just feel that sitting out November and getting numbers as low as they can possibly go may be a necessary sacrifice for a December which will give retail a fighting chance and allow travel between counties for the last few weeks of December. There needs to be a very careful narrative over the next few weeks to prepare people for as normal as possible a December.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 27-10-2020 07:51PM

mountgomery burns wrote: »

In the letter on the 15th of October, the modelling estimates 1800-2300 daily cases by 31st October, with 80-110 in ICU.

Level 5 is less than a week old and Level 3 was deemed ineffective based on the above.

The decline in the last few days may prove to be temporary respite, but if not then serious scrutiny should be applied to those models and advice afforded before any return to level 5 is considered after Christmas.

Based on data to 10 October (level 3 was 5 days old it doesn't hit the data) the R number is 1.4.

If that continues with no change cases will be 1800 (r0=1.4) and 2500 a day (r0=1.6) by 31 October.

Level 3 was not included in that at all. Now the question of if he should have modeled in level 3 effects might make sense. However he didn't. He made it clear he didn't. So why should level 3 effects such as they are, and effects from level 3+ or from anticipatory behavior or from level 4 in the border be included when he said they weren't.

JP100 · 27-10-2020 07:51PM

8k71ps wrote: »

I don't think there was a notable decrease anywhere in the 4-24 category that showed a decrease? Could be wrong though. The effect of schools would be perhaps perception of you being infected (that you'd be more likely to go for a test a crowded setting), but like it'll be pretty obvious if that's the case once the mid terms over so we'll see.

Schools are host to almost a million people and with them closed the virus is more hampered in its potential to spread between people. So of course that is going to begin to feed in to the numbers over the course of the next week or so. Now how much it feeds in to it is another question altogether.

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 07:54PM

Sorry is it just me or is it shocking that the fact that 60-70% of school going aged kids that got infected in Israel were asymptomatic?

The line here was schools were safe to open. We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

Clearly this is the driver of the current wave and the cause of the resultant lockdown, job losses and restrictions.

It’s not that kids aren’t getting it. It’s that we can’t see them getting it. Hence the massive explosion in community transmission.

This is a scandal.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Then the CMO is wrong as well. You should send him a letter!

The CMO probably isn't getting the full picture because they're incorrectly testing the schools. There are some cases where they test the entire classroom, others when they test no-one.

normanoffside · 27-10-2020 07:57PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

The line here was schools were safe to open. We know that adults who were asymptomatic have had longer term issues.

.

How can you be asymptomatic and have long term issues?
If You're asymptomatic you have no symptoms, short or long term.

8k71ps · 27-10-2020 07:57PM

JP100 wrote: »

Schools are host to almost a million people and with them closed the virus is more hampered in its potential to spread between people. So of course that is going to begin to feed in to the numbers over the course of the next week or so. Now how much it feeds in to it is another question altogether.

Oh I don't deny that, from what I can see the cases in schools are doubling every week, which is pretty close to an uncontrolled spread. My point is that it's unlikely to feed into the statistics of the past week since the schools have only been closed for several days, it could be a psychological thing though.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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